CSNbbs

The 'Noles are ahead by the slimmest of margins (.003) and the Ducks have Stanford, UCLA and Oregon State to go. Florida State gets Miami, Florida (not looking so good) and possibly Virginia Tech.

yes without a doubt. Not only does Oregon have who you say they do, but also the CCG against Arizona St quite possibly or UCLA again. Right now the computers are generally FSU, Alabama, Missouri, Oregon. When Missouri loses, that's going to peel away the margin. Also, Alabama should pass FSU. FSU really needs Oregon to lose quite frankly.

Absolutely. FSU may be the better team in terms of style but Oregon is definitely going to be the more battle tested team if they win out. FSU has no one to blame but themselves if they win out and don't play in the national title because they scheduled Bethune Cookman, Nevada, and Idaho. I'm not saying they should have scheduled SEC teams but they certainly could have scheduled games like ECU, Houston, Cincy, BYU, etc.

You get what you pay for.

Oregon will surely pass FSU in the overall BCS standings if both teams win out. Their PAC SOS will ensure that.

Don't be so sure of this. Yes, if the human polls don't change, then I agree that Oregon will probably move ahead of FSU. However, we can't be certain that the human polls won't change. There is a thin margin between Oregon (#2) and FSU (#3) on that metric and FSU is going play Miami at least once (and possibly again the ACC Championship Game), which could be a greater mover when it comes to the human polls more than the computers. There's also kind of a butterfly effect - assuming that Oregon runs the table, Stanford and UCLA are going to get knocked down in the rankings below Clemson (whose loss to FSU is already accounted for) and Miami (assuming the Canes only lose to FSU and no one else). I'm not seeing the wide gap between the ACC and Pac-12 that seems to be the perception here - they're both pretty top heavy with 3 ranked teams and then a lot of "meh" after that. The Pac-12 isn't going to get a material bump on the computer side in the way that the SEC does (which is reflected in the fact right now with FSU getting bumped ahead of Oregon by the computers despite the human polls).

(10-21-2013 08:52 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote: [ -> ]FSU has no one to blame but themselves if they win out and don't play in the national title because they scheduled Bethune Cookman, Nevada, and Idaho. I'm not saying they should have scheduled SEC teams but they certainly could have scheduled games like ECU, Houston, Cincy, BYU, etc.

You get what you pay for.

We just played a home/away with BYU a few seasons ago. It wasn't an intentional ducking of a decent OOC opponent. VT was originally scheduled to be playing in Tallahassee since FSU played in Blacksburg last year.

FSU added B-C late because the ACC had originally decided to go to 9 conference games this year. After they added Notre Dame they decided to go back to 8. Ask G_T_S, it f'ed up GT's schedule, too.

And recently Nevada's been just as good as ECU, Houston and BYU.

The half of knowledge is to know where to find knowledge.

(10-21-2013 09:49 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: [ -> ]I'm not seeing the wide gap between the ACC and Pac-12 that seems to be the perception here - they're both pretty top heavy with 3 ranked teams and then a lot of "meh" after that.

The ACC has 4 ranked teams. All four are in the BCS top 14. I assume you forgot Virginia Tech.

(10-21-2013 09:49 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: [ -> ]The Pac-12 isn't going to get a material bump on the computer side in the way that the SEC does (which is reflected in the fact right now with FSU getting bumped ahead of Oregon by the computers despite the human polls).

FSU is ahead of Oregon in the computers because FSU has played a tougher schedule. E.g., Sagarin has Oregon's schedule at around 65 and FSU's at 43. But that will change because Oregon has a tougher remaining schedule.Oregon will almost surely get a conference boost in the computers. The PAC is neck and neck with the SEC as the #1 conference in the computers while the ACC is about 5th. That will toll on FSU's computer ranking. FSU has games against Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Idaho among their remaining five, plus a 3-loss Florida team, a team that will probably have 4 losses before they face FSU. That is going to really hurt their SOS.

As for the pollsters, I can't see them moving FSU past Oregon either, because Oregon has more of a chance to shine in big games going forward. This week, with FSU garnering its huge win over Clemson while Oregon played a soft WSU team, was really FSU's best chance to vault Oregon in the human polls. But they didn't really come close to that. Oregon has a comfortable margin over FSU in both human polls that count.

Plus, like FSU, Oregon has the high-scoring type of team that wins "impressively". If Oregon was like Ohio State, barely eeking by teams by 31-24 margins and the like, they'd be more vulnerable to human poll vote shifting. But they score 50 or 60 points a game too.

One thing that will hurt FSU is Idaho. Just a terrible team...

I think FSU's only shot short of a Oregon loss would be if Oregon struggles with their remaining schedule.

Average opponent rest of the season in the BCS computers- not counting CCG:
Florida St 60.79
Oregon 22.8(with worst being Arizona at 38.25- FSU has 4 opponents worse than that one).

FSU won't be able to keep their gap in the computers at all.

In all 5 weeks that FSU and Oregon go head to head, Oregon has the advantage of better opponent. Also, last 4 weeks even larger advantage for Oregon
FSU- 67.56- Oregon 25

But will Alabama win out?

@ Auburn is now a tough game.

I don't see how FSU jumps Oregon if the Ducks win out. The PAC is perceived as the #1 or #2 conference and they have been in the top three since the beginning of the year. FSU just has too much ground to make up and not enough end of season challenges to make the leap.

Yeah, look at it side by side and it's obvious where the computer rankings will be going. FSU will still be #1 in the computers if they beat NCSU and Miami, but Oregon will gain in SOS every week after that.

(10-21-2013 10:33 AM)vandiver49 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see how FSU jumps Oregon if the Ducks win out. The PAC is perceived as the #1 or #2 conference and they have been in the top three since the beginning of the year. FSU just has too much ground to make up and not enough end of season challenges to make the leap.

Maybe. However, I just think people are underestimating the movement that could come from an FSU win over an undefeated Miami and then possibly playing Miami (or a VT team that would have likely beaten Miami to get there) again in the ACC Championship Game. I'm not saying it *will* happen, but I don't think it's *that* clear cut for Oregon. At the very least, they're going to sweat it out. The Canes are still the highest ranked team under the human polls that either FSU or Oregon plays (and the human polls are where FSU needs the bump to maintain the #2 position).

while true that Miami is the highest ranked team left, Stanford is very close behind- 2 in coaches, 1 in Harris. It's not like Miami is 10 spots ahead of Stanford. The computer gap which is 2.5 spots right now will be closed to probably close to a tie. I just don't see FSU passing Oregon in the polls at all. Not with the schedule they have.

When are the BCS pairings announced? I didn't think the CCG was considered in the BCS calculations??

after the CCG.

(10-21-2013 10:48 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-21-2013 10:33 AM)vandiver49 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't see how FSU jumps Oregon if the Ducks win out. The PAC is perceived as the #1 or #2 conference and they have been in the top three since the beginning of the year. FSU just has too much ground to make up and not enough end of season challenges to make the leap.

Maybe. However, I just think people are underestimating the movement that could come from an FSU win over an undefeated Miami and then possibly playing Miami (or a VT team that would have likely beaten Miami to get there) again in the ACC Championship Game. I'm not saying it *will* happen, but I don't think it's *that* clear cut for Oregon. At the very least, they're going to sweat it out. The Canes are still the highest ranked team under the human polls that either FSU or Oregon plays (and the human polls are where FSU needs the bump to maintain the #2 position).

Granted we are all prisoners of the moments since this was the first release of the BCS rankings. But I think that whatever gain FSU might receive from beating an undefeated 'Canes will be negated by the rest of their schedule. The Gators might be at/below .500 when the two meet up Thanksgiving weekend, which the CCG won't be able to make up for.

(10-21-2013 09:49 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: [ -> ]Don't be so sure of this. Yes, if the human polls don't change, then I agree that Oregon will probably move ahead of FSU. However, we can't be certain that the human polls won't change. There is a thin margin between Oregon (#2) and FSU (#3) on that metric and FSU is going play Miami at least once (and possibly again the ACC Championship Game), which could be a greater mover when it comes to the human polls more than the computers. There's also kind of a butterfly effect - assuming that Oregon runs the table, Stanford and UCLA are going to get knocked down in the rankings below Clemson (whose loss to FSU is already accounted for) and Miami (assuming the Canes only lose to FSU and no one else). I'm not seeing the wide gap between the ACC and Pac-12 that seems to be the perception here - they're both pretty top heavy with 3 ranked teams and then a lot of "meh" after that. The Pac-12 isn't going to get a material bump on the computer side in the way that the SEC does (which is reflected in the fact right now with FSU getting bumped ahead of Oregon by the computers despite the human polls).

Frank, Oregon has yet to play all 3 of the ranked teams in their conference (#12 UCLA, #6 Stanford, and #25 Oregon State), as well as the P12 Championship game. FSU has only Miami and the ACC Championship game to impress the voters. The Florida game will be no help to FSU, since the Gators are currently without an offense. The only remaining win Florida can count upon is the Georgia State game. They could very well lose the rest of their games (UGA, Vandy, South Carolina, FSU)...

(10-21-2013 10:38 AM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah, look at it side by side and it's obvious where the computer rankings will be going. FSU will still be #1 in the computers if they beat NCSU and Miami, but Oregon will gain in SOS every week after that.

Code:

FLORIDA STATE                OREGON
NC State (3-3)               UCLA (5-1)
Miami (6-0)                  bye    
at Wake Forest (4-3)         at Stanford (6-1)
Syracuse (3-4)               Utah (4-3)
Idaho (1-6)                  at Arizona (4-2)      
at Florida (4-3)             Oregon State (6-1)

You are forgetting a game: Conference championship:

VT (6-1) or UCLA (5-1) or
Miami (6-0) ASU (5-2)

If Miami only loses to FSU the rest of the way, they will be in the top 10 again and play FSU again in the ACC Championship. If VT beats Miami, they will be in the top 10 playing for the ACC Championship. UCLA has to play Oregon and assuming Oregon wins out, that's a second loss for UCLA. ASU is unranked and must beat UCLA to win the PAC 12 South. If Oregon wins out, they will be playing a 2-loss P12 team that will not be ranked in the top 10. FSU on the other hand is much more likely to be playing a one loss ACC team ranked in the top 10 and assuming FSU wins out, that will give them three wins over top 10 teams.

Oregon can only have one such win - over Stanford.

Also, if anyone thinks Oregon State is going to be ranked after losing to Stanford or Oregon, well I think you are wrong. Remember OSU lost to Eastern Washington.

Folks also seem to forget that Maryland was ranked 25 when FSU beat the hell out them a few weeks ago and that Pitt could be ranked by year end.

But you forget that the Idaho game is going to be an anchor around FSU's neck...