10-08-2013, 03:41 PM
There been talk here and there (message boards, radio, twitter) about ODU and the fact they never line-up under center, don't bring a big, bruising back in, especially on 3rd and 4th and short. There's been some talk that seem to say we're not actually good in these situations because of this, but most of the evidence is anecdotal. That doesn't mean it's wrong, but there's nothing concrete.
So I thought I'd take a look at the play-by-play and see how we do.
A few things to keep in mind:
1--ODU doesn't seem have a lot of 3rd and 4th and shorts because the offense is so powerful.
2--There was talk about how bad our defense was at stopping people on 3rd down. As bad as our defense is at that, our offense is just as good at converting them. Overall we are 48/90, or 53.3% on offense, and opponents are 52/93, or 55.9%. However, that's not the plays we were talking about-we're talking about short yardage.
3--Before I get to the numbers, let me tell you what I looked at. Your mileage may vary. I defined short yardage as 3 or fewer yards for the first down or TD. I also didn't look at 2nd and short because with our offense, I don't want a "3 yards and a cloud of dust" on 2nd and 3. Our offense is too good to do that. So, 3rd and 4th down plays, with 3 or fewer yards to go.
ECU: 3/5
UMD: 3/7
Howard: 2/2
Citadel: 3/4
Albany: 5/6
Liberty: 4/9
Against FBS: 6/12, 50%
Against FCS: 14/21, 67% (And 10/12 before Liberty game, or 83.3%)
So, we struggled some against the big boys (but really only against Maryland) and until last week were almost automatic against FCS.
So, what does it mean? Personally, I think the FBS numbers are a bit (not totally) meaningless--we are outclassed physically in those games. I think we actually have a better shot passing than trying to play smashmouth with them. But until an off-game against Liberty we only failed converting a 3rd and short twice. And that's a bit misleading, because on one of them, the defense was assessed a late hit penalty on Heinicke to give us the first anyway, and on the second, against Albany, our 3rd and 2 play gained a yard, and we then converted on 4th down. So, until last week, in FCS games ODU did not have a single drive end because we could not convert on 3rd or 4th down.
So, you can think that the Liberty game struggles are meaningful, even though, outside of the Maryland game they never happened again, or we can hope that the Liberty game was just a down game and not indicative of our team struggling on short yardage plays because we don't have a Jerome Bettis back there.
I'm not against adding more to our offense, but I think that BW trusts Heinicke so much that he's just comfortable letting him sit back there and pick teams apart.
So I thought I'd take a look at the play-by-play and see how we do.
A few things to keep in mind:
1--ODU doesn't seem have a lot of 3rd and 4th and shorts because the offense is so powerful.
2--There was talk about how bad our defense was at stopping people on 3rd down. As bad as our defense is at that, our offense is just as good at converting them. Overall we are 48/90, or 53.3% on offense, and opponents are 52/93, or 55.9%. However, that's not the plays we were talking about-we're talking about short yardage.
3--Before I get to the numbers, let me tell you what I looked at. Your mileage may vary. I defined short yardage as 3 or fewer yards for the first down or TD. I also didn't look at 2nd and short because with our offense, I don't want a "3 yards and a cloud of dust" on 2nd and 3. Our offense is too good to do that. So, 3rd and 4th down plays, with 3 or fewer yards to go.
ECU: 3/5
UMD: 3/7
Howard: 2/2
Citadel: 3/4
Albany: 5/6
Liberty: 4/9
Against FBS: 6/12, 50%
Against FCS: 14/21, 67% (And 10/12 before Liberty game, or 83.3%)
So, we struggled some against the big boys (but really only against Maryland) and until last week were almost automatic against FCS.
So, what does it mean? Personally, I think the FBS numbers are a bit (not totally) meaningless--we are outclassed physically in those games. I think we actually have a better shot passing than trying to play smashmouth with them. But until an off-game against Liberty we only failed converting a 3rd and short twice. And that's a bit misleading, because on one of them, the defense was assessed a late hit penalty on Heinicke to give us the first anyway, and on the second, against Albany, our 3rd and 2 play gained a yard, and we then converted on 4th down. So, until last week, in FCS games ODU did not have a single drive end because we could not convert on 3rd or 4th down.
So, you can think that the Liberty game struggles are meaningful, even though, outside of the Maryland game they never happened again, or we can hope that the Liberty game was just a down game and not indicative of our team struggling on short yardage plays because we don't have a Jerome Bettis back there.
I'm not against adding more to our offense, but I think that BW trusts Heinicke so much that he's just comfortable letting him sit back there and pick teams apart.