Okay, I have never bet on a game before, but have always been curious what some of the betting lingo means.
For example, ECU is -7 against MTSU this week. Why put a -7 if ECU is supposed to win by 7, why not a +7. Also, what is the "spread" in gambling and what does it mean to take the "points" in a bet? What else am I missing here in gambling 101. How does Vegas come up with a point total for the game. Thanks in advance for your help with this.
(10-04-2013 05:12 PM)baruna falls Wrote: [ -> ]Okay, I have never bet on a game before, but have always been curious what some of the betting lingo means.
For example, ECU is -7 against MTSU this week. Why put a -7 if ECU is supposed to win by 7, why not a +7. Also, what is the "spread" in gambling and what does it mean to take the "points" in a bet? What else am I missing here in gambling 101. How does Vegas come up with a point total for the game. Thanks in advance for your help with this.
I'll admit, I've never known or understood betting lines and the terminology behind it. Was always too embarrassed to ask so I'm glad you asked and I hope someone can explain it for us.
Spread = number of points favorite is picked to win by.
Beating the spread = the favorite wins by less than the picked spread.
Take the points = betting on the underdog to cover the spread and the spread + his points are greater than the favorite's score.
Over/Under betting = self explainatory. based on total number of points
Some sort of fancy math formulas and stats I'm sure are used to determine the lines.
It's pretty simple. They come out with a line, or a score that is going to seperate the two teams. If vegas gives ECU a line of -9, that essentially means they believe ECU is going to win by 9 points. Now, if you bet on ECU here, that means ecu has to cover the spread (-9) in order for you to win the bet. So ECU has to win by more than 9 points. If you bet on MTSU, then MTSU can win by any amount or, has to lose by less than 9. If the spreaad changes to -7, that means more people are putting money on MTSU to win, or lose by less than9. The reason the spread changes is because they try keep a balance of money betting on each side, so they are guaranteed to profit essentially. How do they figure this out? I would guess huge amounts of sports nerds and algorithms.
The spread is the + or - 7. The minus means that you are betting that ECU final score will be more than 7 points greater than middles. That is called giving points. If you take middle + 7 then you are betting that mtsu's score plus 7 points will be greater than ecu's score. The point total is the potential combined score of the two. So if the spread is 7 and the total is 49 one can determine that Vegas is expecting a final score of 21-28.
Don't be fooled by the lines. Some think that Vegas lines are usually close to accurate. Vegas adjusts the line to get even money on both sides of the line. Lines can sometimes be a bit misleading.
The simplest way to explain it and how I first understood it:
ECU -7
Final Score
ECU 35
MT 21
Subtract seven from ECU's score so the final would be ECU 28-MT 21. ECU covered and those who bet on ECU win.
The reason why the favorite gets the -7 is that say the final score is ECU 28 MT 21 and you subtract the 7 points from ECU's score to get 21 to 21, so the house wins because of tie. If the final score would have been ECU 29 MT 21, then you win if you bet on ECU.
If the spread is 7 your team must win by 8.
Also you can bet over/under. The odds makers pick a number that they think will be the total points scored by both teams in the game. You can bet the total will be under or over that number.
(10-04-2013 05:50 PM)correcamino Wrote: [ -> ]The simplest way to explain it and how I first understood it:
ECU -7
Final Score
ECU 35
MT 21
Subtract seven from ECU's score so the final would be ECU 28-MT 21. ECU covered and those who bet on ECU win.
Maybe I'm wrong, but ECU would have covered the spread of -7, but those that bet on ECU would in essence "push" or lose the bet outright because to win the bet you have to beat the spread not equal it, so ECU would have had to win 29-21.
Initial score I gave was 35-21 so it the last one included the -7.
I like playing money lines on under dogs to win straight up...That is where some real money can be made.
One game I see for tomorrow that looks like a good one to play is WVU +29 against Baylor...That is a huge freaking spread. Baylor has been good this year but they have not really played anyone yet and WVU showed some resolve winning against Ok State last week.
(10-04-2013 05:58 PM)BhamSnap Wrote: [ -> ]The reason why the favorite gets the -7 is that say the final score is ECU 28 MT 21 and you subtract the 7 points from ECU's score to get 21 to 21, so the house wins because of tie. If the final score would have been ECU 29 MT 21, then you win if you bet on ECU.
If the spread is 7 your team must win by 8.
Also you can bet over/under. The odds makers pick a number that they think will be the total points scored by both teams in the game. You can bet the total will be under or over that number.
You need to get with a different book. I've never lost money on a push.
(10-04-2013 08:03 PM)ECU-DMB Fanatic Wrote: [ -> ]I like playing money lines on under dogs to win straight up...That is where some real money can be made.
A couple years ago I made a lot of money on the NCAA tournament playing a lot of underdogs. Unfortunately I promptly gave all the money back on NHL.
A lot of people say betting on college sports is for suckers but for me it's the opposite. I can usually spot some things that work out in college but everyone is so close in pro sports I never know what to do.
(10-04-2013 08:38 PM)TheEastisPurple Wrote: [ -> ] (10-04-2013 08:03 PM)ECU-DMB Fanatic Wrote: [ -> ]I like playing money lines on under dogs to win straight up...That is where some real money can be made.
A couple years ago I made a lot of money on the NCAA tournament playing a lot of underdogs. Unfortunately I promptly gave all the money back on NHL.
A lot of people say betting on college sports is for suckers but for me it's the opposite. I can usually spot some things that work out in college but everyone is so close in pro sports I never know what to do.
I agree 100%...NFL football is one of the hardest games to win on in my opinion. College football is where I have my best winning percentage...There are just so many games and you can find books with screwed up early lines. If you put in the research there are some pretty easy bets out there on college football. Some of the easiest winners for me in college football are in the O/U....Like tonights game between Utah St and BYU, the O/U was 56...Laid some cash on that deal, looks good so far. Also laid some cash on BYU to win outright as they were 6 point dogs, so right now things are going my way...But as we all know things can take a bad turn pretty quickly in college football betting. I also like to play on home dogs in NCAA Basketball as it is just so hard to win on the road.
(10-04-2013 05:26 PM)EastCarolinaU- Wrote: [ -> ]If vegas gives ECU a line of -9, that essentially means they believe ECU is going to win by 9 points.
Close, but not precisely. It means they think a line of 9 points will entice an equal amount of money to be bet on ECU and on the opponent. That is not quite the same thing as a "prediction" of how they think the game will turn out, on the field, although there is some overlap between the two concepts.
Quote:The reason the spread changes is because they try keep a balance of money betting on each side, so they are guaranteed to profit essentially.
Very true.
In the history of the gambling industry, Super Bowl XIII in January 1979 was infamous because a lot of bettors took Dallas at +4.5 or +5.0, causing the line to shift to Dallas +3.0 or +3.5, at which point a lot of bettors took Pittsburgh and the line settled at +4.0 prior to kickoff.
The Steelers won by exactly 4 points, and the books of course had to pay out to both sides. It was a blood-bath plain and simple for the casinos and other book-making businesses.
I haven't really followed this stuff for the last 15 years, so I don't know if anything like that has happened lately. It's possible, but it's incredibly rare.
Quote:How do they figure this out? I would guess huge amounts of sports nerds and algorithms.
It is a multi-billion dollar industry. You better believe they have hundreds of salaried, college-educated people watching the game films, working the stats and past-tendencies, checking up on the injury reports,
full-time every day of the year. Which is why it is so hilarious for someone to think they can
consistently beat the spreads just by watching highlights on SportsCenter and checking a few websites. You might as well put your cash into a shredding machine.
(10-04-2013 11:43 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: [ -> ] (10-04-2013 05:26 PM)EastCarolinaU- Wrote: [ -> ]If vegas gives ECU a line of -9, that essentially means they believe ECU is going to win by 9 points.
Close, but not precisely. It means they think a line of 9 points will entice an equal amount of money to be bet on ECU and on the opponent. That is not quite the same thing as a "prediction" of how they think the game will turn out, on the field, although there is some overlap between the two concepts.
Quote:The reason the spread changes is because they try keep a balance of money betting on each side, so they are guaranteed to profit essentially.
Very true.
In the history of the gambling industry, Super Bowl XIII in January 1979 was infamous because a lot of bettors took Dallas at +4.5 or +5.0, causing the line to shift to Dallas +3.0 or +3.5, at which point a lot of bettors took Pittsburgh and the line settled at +4.0 prior to kickoff. The Steelers won by exactly 4 points, and the books of course had to pay out to both sides. It was a blood-bath plain and simple for the casinos and other book-making businesses.
I haven't really followed this stuff for the last 15 years, so I don't know if anything like that has happened lately. It's possible, but it's incredibly rare.
Quote:How do they figure this out? I would guess huge amounts of sports nerds and algorithms.
It is a multi-billion dollar industry. You better believe they have hundreds of salaried, college-educated people watching the game films, working the stats and past-tendencies, checking up on the injury reports, full-time every day of the year. Which is why it is so hilarious for someone to think they can consistently beat the spreads just by watching highlights on SportsCenter and checking a few websites. You might as well put your cash into a shredding machine.
On the first point, congrats on being the first person on this board that I have seen accurately describe the job of bookies.
On the second point, not exactly. Your first point is the reason your second point is incorrect. Vegas doesn't care if "you" win. Because regardless of whether "you" win or the "other guy" wins, vegas wins. Given a sufficient bankroll and enough time, you can almost guarantee that you make money.
Bet 1: Bet $1 with a chance to win $0.90 and lose
Result: Down $1
Bet 2: $1.23 with a chance to win $1.01 and lose
Result: Down $2.23
Bet 3: Bet $2.49 with a chance to win $2.24 and win
Result: Up $0.01
Just imagine larger units and repeat until you are up. Takes some money to start and the balls to stick with it but the probability is largely in your favor that you win eventually, before you run out of money first. Then you simply start over at one unit and repeat the process until you are up again.
Just playing devils advocate as the vast majority of people who bet on sports lose money (otherwise bookies wouldn't do it) but if you have the money to start out you can almost guarantee that you make money. Of course most people fancy themselves geniuses and do all kinds of parlays and money lines and wind up losing their bank.
Using the "who wants to be a millionaire" model of pretty much doubling down every correct answer... I've set myself up to "become a millionaire" by consecutively hitting a bet every week and doubling down the following week. This is the first time I've actually tried to put my plan into motion, but starting at a modest bet (say $30-$50), I can hit the max bet limit within the college season... And probably win on the order of $50k throughout the season if I hit each week.
I'm only on week 2 of this system, but I did win my week 1 game, and I'm doubling down this week. I'll keep doubling down on only 1 game each week. so technically, if at any time I lose (hopefully never), I really only have the original bet invested. And focusing on only 1 game gives me a pretty legit shot at hitting it.
(10-04-2013 11:43 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: [ -> ] (10-04-2013 05:26 PM)EastCarolinaU- Wrote: [ -> ]If vegas gives ECU a line of -9, that essentially means they believe ECU is going to win by 9 points.
Close, but not precisely. It means they think a line of 9 points will entice an equal amount of money to be bet on ECU and on the opponent. That is not quite the same thing as a "prediction" of how they think the game will turn out, on the field, although there is some overlap between the two concepts.
Quote:The reason the spread changes is because they try keep a balance of money betting on each side, so they are guaranteed to profit essentially.
Very true.
In the history of the gambling industry, Super Bowl XIII in January 1979 was infamous because a lot of bettors took Dallas at +4.5 or +5.0, causing the line to shift to Dallas +3.0 or +3.5, at which point a lot of bettors took Pittsburgh and the line settled at +4.0 prior to kickoff. The Steelers won by exactly 4 points, and the books of course had to pay out to both sides. It was a blood-bath plain and simple for the casinos and other book-making businesses.
I haven't really followed this stuff for the last 15 years, so I don't know if anything like that has happened lately. It's possible, but it's incredibly rare.
Quote:How do they figure this out? I would guess huge amounts of sports nerds and algorithms.
It is a multi-billion dollar industry. You better believe they have hundreds of salaried, college-educated people watching the game films, working the stats and past-tendencies, checking up on the injury reports, full-time every day of the year. Which is why it is so hilarious for someone to think they can consistently beat the spreads just by watching highlights on SportsCenter and checking a few websites. You might as well put your cash into a shredding machine.
There are ways to make good money consistently off the sports books...It is taking the right approach and mindset. It does not happen overnight, you almost have to approach it from a stock market investing approach, slow and steady, and some would argue it is easier and safer than the stock market. It is certainly not the approach that most "punters" take on the weekend trying to play a few games and make big bucks. This approach will bankrupt you fairly quickly.
(10-05-2013 08:32 AM)warcat Wrote: [ -> ]Using the "who wants to be a millionaire" model of pretty much doubling down every correct answer... I've set myself up to "become a millionaire" by consecutively hitting a bet every week and doubling down the following week. This is the first time I've actually tried to put my plan into motion, but starting at a modest bet (say $30-$50), I can hit the max bet limit within the college season... And probably win on the order of $50k throughout the season if I hit each week.
I'm only on week 2 of this system, but I did win my week 1 game, and I'm doubling down this week. I'll keep doubling down on only 1 game each week. so technically, if at any time I lose (hopefully never), I really only have the original bet invested. And focusing on only 1 game gives me a pretty legit shot at hitting it.
I hate to tell you but this approach will not work in the long run...You will hit a cold streak and the next thing you know you will have bet huge bucks to try and break even or win just a little money. This is one of the oldest gambling "systems" out there and it has been proven to not be a sound approach long term. Just do the math, lets say you hit a cold streak of missing 4 or 5 straight weeks...Look how much money you would have to bet on the 6th week just to win $30 or $50 dollars. If you truly want to try and make money in this racket there are better approaches out there. I guess if you plan on stopping when you lose your small initial investment it will be no big deal but do not get in the trap of trying to chase your money using this approach...If so it will have an ugly ending.
(10-05-2013 08:56 AM)ECU-DMB Fanatic Wrote: [ -> ] (10-05-2013 08:32 AM)warcat Wrote: [ -> ]Using the "who wants to be a millionaire" model of pretty much doubling down every correct answer... I've set myself up to "become a millionaire" by consecutively hitting a bet every week and doubling down the following week. This is the first time I've actually tried to put my plan into motion, but starting at a modest bet (say $30-$50), I can hit the max bet limit within the college season... And probably win on the order of $50k throughout the season if I hit each week.
I'm only on week 2 of this system, but I did win my week 1 game, and I'm doubling down this week. I'll keep doubling down on only 1 game each week. so technically, if at any time I lose (hopefully never), I really only have the original bet invested. And focusing on only 1 game gives me a pretty legit shot at hitting it.
I hate to tell you but this approach will not work in the long run...You will hit a cold streak and the next thing you know you will have bet huge bucks to try and break even or win just a little money. This is one of the oldest gambling "systems" out there and it has been proven to not be a sound approach long term. Just do the math, lets say you hit a cold streak of missing 4 or 5 straight weeks...Look how much money you would have to bet on the 6th week just to win $30 or $50 dollars. If you truly want to try and make money in this racket there are better approaches out there. I guess if you plan on stopping when you lose you small initial investment it will be no big deal but do not get in the trap of trying to chase your money using this approach...If so it will have an ugly ending.
Ha! Yeah, this is just for fun to keep things interesting during the season. I know I will most likely lose a game and lose my initial investment, and stop.
My money making system (currently testing it on fake money) is to actually start with $500, and putting $100 down on 5 games i like each week. I'm 3 weeks in on this system and I'm currently at just under $2k. So far I've been 3-2, 3-2, and 4-1 in my first 3 weeks. I chose an odd number of bets so that there is always the potential of winning each week.
(10-05-2013 09:10 AM)warcat Wrote: [ -> ] (10-05-2013 08:56 AM)ECU-DMB Fanatic Wrote: [ -> ] (10-05-2013 08:32 AM)warcat Wrote: [ -> ]Using the "who wants to be a millionaire" model of pretty much doubling down every correct answer... I've set myself up to "become a millionaire" by consecutively hitting a bet every week and doubling down the following week. This is the first time I've actually tried to put my plan into motion, but starting at a modest bet (say $30-$50), I can hit the max bet limit within the college season... And probably win on the order of $50k throughout the season if I hit each week.
I'm only on week 2 of this system, but I did win my week 1 game, and I'm doubling down this week. I'll keep doubling down on only 1 game each week. so technically, if at any time I lose (hopefully never), I really only have the original bet invested. And focusing on only 1 game gives me a pretty legit shot at hitting it.
I hate to tell you but this approach will not work in the long run...You will hit a cold streak and the next thing you know you will have bet huge bucks to try and break even or win just a little money. This is one of the oldest gambling "systems" out there and it has been proven to not be a sound approach long term. Just do the math, lets say you hit a cold streak of missing 4 or 5 straight weeks...Look how much money you would have to bet on the 6th week just to win $30 or $50 dollars. If you truly want to try and make money in this racket there are better approaches out there. I guess if you plan on stopping when you lose you small initial investment it will be no big deal but do not get in the trap of trying to chase your money using this approach...If so it will have an ugly ending.
Ha! Yeah, this is just for fun to keep things interesting during the season. I know I will most likely lose a game and lose my initial investment, and stop.
My money making system (currently testing it on fake money) is to actually start with $500, and putting $100 down on 5 games i like each week. I'm 3 weeks in on this system and I'm currently at just under $2k. So far I've been 3-2, 3-2, and 4-1 in my first 3 weeks. I chose an odd number of bets so that there is always the potential of winning each week.
I understand...As long as you are not betting and losing money that you need to eat or pay bills then it is all good...I wish you luck.