10-04-2013, 02:55 PM
UTSA (2-3/1-0 CUSA) at Marshall (2-2/0-0), 1 p.m. Saturday, Time Warner
> Why my confidence is medium: For once, UTSA would probably like to play a team with a balanced attack. Instead, UTSA has played three primarily running teams -- New Mexico, Arizona and UTEP, two of which have far more rushing than passing yards, and another (UTEP) that definitely provers to run. UTSA is 2-1 in those games. But the problems have surfaced against better passing programs. Houston and Oklahoma State combined to pass for 859 yards against UTSA. That accounts for 70 percent of the passing yardage allowed by UTSA in five games. That's the very reason why Marshall looks like a relatively safe pick here. Rakeeen Cato doesn't get much national love, but the junior Marshall QB is on pace for a second straight 4,000 yards season through the air. He has an excellent receiving corps at his disposal, too. Five Marshall receivers have at least 100 yards this year, and all of them are juniors or seniors. UTSA is on its way up as a program, but Saturday poses a minor speed bump on the Roadrunners' scent.
> Key stat: 0, the number of quarterbacks who threw for more yards per game than Cato's 350.1 last season. His 37 touchdown passes ranked third in the nation meanwhile.
> The mob says: Marshall by 14
> So says I: Marshall 40, UTSA 24
Rice (2-2/1-0 CUSA) at Tulsa (1-3/0-0), 2:30 p.m. Saturday, CBSSN
> Why my confidence is low: Tulsa is not who I thought it was. Usually a prime contender for the CUSA title, something's wrong with the Golden Hurricane. They (or is it it when referring to the Hurricane?) rank 78 slots worse than last year in total offense and 66 slots lower defensively. Tulsa, one of the smallest programs in the nation, is on the verge of losing its role of Goliath slayer. If Rice was who I thought it was, this would be an easy pick. Going into the season, the Owls -- on paper at least -- looked like a team that could supplant Tulsa in the upper echelon of the conference. But since giving Texas A&M a battle and knocking off Kansas the following game, Rice has struggled, mostly offensively, and enters this matchup in a real funk. Since that A&M game, QB Taylor McHargue hasn't thrown a touchdown pass but has been picked off three times. Rice's usual steady running backs have averaged less than four yards per carry in the last two weeks afar averaging more than five in the first two. This is a chance for both teams to set a new tone for the season and to snap out of a bad spell. I'd like to think that team will be Rice, but my confidence in the Owls has faded enough that I think Tulsa pulls off a close win.
> Key stat: 69, the number of passing yards by Rice in last week's 18-14 win over Florida Atlantic, the first time since the 2011 season opener at Texas (94 yards) where Rice has thrown for fewer than 100 yards and just the third time in the past seven years.
> The mob says: Tulsa by 3
> So says I: Tulsa 23, Rice 21
Louisiana Tech (1-4/0-1 CUSA) at UTEP (1-3/0-1), 6:30 p.m. Saturday, CBSSN
> Why my confidence is low: The calendar has barely flipped over to October, but this might be an elimination game for both programs, at least when it comes to bowl eligibility. The math is simple: A loss for La Tech, and the Bulldogs (a nine-win team last season) could afford just one more loss this season. UTEP has slightly more room for error, but with five of its final six games on the road (who came up with that ridiculous schedule?), this game approaches must-win territory for the Miners. These teams have both reversed roles this season. La Tech is averaging 39 fewer points per game, but it's also giving up 13 fewer points. UTEP, meanwhile, has picked it up offensively -- the Miners are averaging 12 more points per game -- but the defense has gone soft, giving up 38 points per game, nine more than a year ago. So which of these identity-reversed programs will live to see another day? Give me UTEP, partly because of home-field advantage, and partly because while the La Tech defense has improved, it gives up nearly 200 rushing yards per game, something I think the Miners will exploit.
> Key stat: 3.03, UTEP's average yards per carry in the last two games after rushing for 5.6 yards per carry in the first two.
> The mob says: Pick
> So says I: UTEP 27, Louisiana Tech 24
North Texas (2-2/0-0 CUSA) at Tulane (3-2/1-0), 2:30 p.m. Saturday, FCS
> Why my confidence is low: The Mean Green turned some heads by giving Georgia a scare between the hedges, but while that effort was nice, these are the games that matter. Making the jump from the Sun Belt to CUSA, this is the kind of game that could give UNT a lot of confidence. Beat an improving Tulane team on the road, and UNT would leave New Orleans believing it can compete in its new league. Lose to the program that's finished in last place in its division the past four seasons, and UNT will be left wondering what it must do to get better. Because this is a senior-laden team that has the pieces in place to make a bowl run. To get the win, however, it's due time the UNT running game show up. UNT topped the 2,000-yard mark as a team last year, but after four games, the Mean Green is on a pace to only produce 75 percent of that. Tulane has been vulnerable against the run. Before it gave up just 26 yards to a Louisiana-Monroe team that's among the worst rushing teams in the nation, Tulane was allowing more than 150 yards per game on the ground. UNT must make this the week the running game is restored. If that happens, the Mean Green should get halfway to blow eligibility with more than half the season to go.
> Key stat: 4, the number of sacks allowed by the UNT offensive line, good for a top 20 national ranking. The sturdy line is a big reason why senior QB Derek Thompson is on pace to throw for 500 more yards, 4 more TDs and 5 fewer INTs this season compared to 2012.
> The mob says: North Texas by 2.5
> So says I: North Texas 30, Tulane 28
http://www.texasfootball.com/college-news/view/180561
> Why my confidence is medium: For once, UTSA would probably like to play a team with a balanced attack. Instead, UTSA has played three primarily running teams -- New Mexico, Arizona and UTEP, two of which have far more rushing than passing yards, and another (UTEP) that definitely provers to run. UTSA is 2-1 in those games. But the problems have surfaced against better passing programs. Houston and Oklahoma State combined to pass for 859 yards against UTSA. That accounts for 70 percent of the passing yardage allowed by UTSA in five games. That's the very reason why Marshall looks like a relatively safe pick here. Rakeeen Cato doesn't get much national love, but the junior Marshall QB is on pace for a second straight 4,000 yards season through the air. He has an excellent receiving corps at his disposal, too. Five Marshall receivers have at least 100 yards this year, and all of them are juniors or seniors. UTSA is on its way up as a program, but Saturday poses a minor speed bump on the Roadrunners' scent.
> Key stat: 0, the number of quarterbacks who threw for more yards per game than Cato's 350.1 last season. His 37 touchdown passes ranked third in the nation meanwhile.
> The mob says: Marshall by 14
> So says I: Marshall 40, UTSA 24
Rice (2-2/1-0 CUSA) at Tulsa (1-3/0-0), 2:30 p.m. Saturday, CBSSN
> Why my confidence is low: Tulsa is not who I thought it was. Usually a prime contender for the CUSA title, something's wrong with the Golden Hurricane. They (or is it it when referring to the Hurricane?) rank 78 slots worse than last year in total offense and 66 slots lower defensively. Tulsa, one of the smallest programs in the nation, is on the verge of losing its role of Goliath slayer. If Rice was who I thought it was, this would be an easy pick. Going into the season, the Owls -- on paper at least -- looked like a team that could supplant Tulsa in the upper echelon of the conference. But since giving Texas A&M a battle and knocking off Kansas the following game, Rice has struggled, mostly offensively, and enters this matchup in a real funk. Since that A&M game, QB Taylor McHargue hasn't thrown a touchdown pass but has been picked off three times. Rice's usual steady running backs have averaged less than four yards per carry in the last two weeks afar averaging more than five in the first two. This is a chance for both teams to set a new tone for the season and to snap out of a bad spell. I'd like to think that team will be Rice, but my confidence in the Owls has faded enough that I think Tulsa pulls off a close win.
> Key stat: 69, the number of passing yards by Rice in last week's 18-14 win over Florida Atlantic, the first time since the 2011 season opener at Texas (94 yards) where Rice has thrown for fewer than 100 yards and just the third time in the past seven years.
> The mob says: Tulsa by 3
> So says I: Tulsa 23, Rice 21
Louisiana Tech (1-4/0-1 CUSA) at UTEP (1-3/0-1), 6:30 p.m. Saturday, CBSSN
> Why my confidence is low: The calendar has barely flipped over to October, but this might be an elimination game for both programs, at least when it comes to bowl eligibility. The math is simple: A loss for La Tech, and the Bulldogs (a nine-win team last season) could afford just one more loss this season. UTEP has slightly more room for error, but with five of its final six games on the road (who came up with that ridiculous schedule?), this game approaches must-win territory for the Miners. These teams have both reversed roles this season. La Tech is averaging 39 fewer points per game, but it's also giving up 13 fewer points. UTEP, meanwhile, has picked it up offensively -- the Miners are averaging 12 more points per game -- but the defense has gone soft, giving up 38 points per game, nine more than a year ago. So which of these identity-reversed programs will live to see another day? Give me UTEP, partly because of home-field advantage, and partly because while the La Tech defense has improved, it gives up nearly 200 rushing yards per game, something I think the Miners will exploit.
> Key stat: 3.03, UTEP's average yards per carry in the last two games after rushing for 5.6 yards per carry in the first two.
> The mob says: Pick
> So says I: UTEP 27, Louisiana Tech 24
North Texas (2-2/0-0 CUSA) at Tulane (3-2/1-0), 2:30 p.m. Saturday, FCS
> Why my confidence is low: The Mean Green turned some heads by giving Georgia a scare between the hedges, but while that effort was nice, these are the games that matter. Making the jump from the Sun Belt to CUSA, this is the kind of game that could give UNT a lot of confidence. Beat an improving Tulane team on the road, and UNT would leave New Orleans believing it can compete in its new league. Lose to the program that's finished in last place in its division the past four seasons, and UNT will be left wondering what it must do to get better. Because this is a senior-laden team that has the pieces in place to make a bowl run. To get the win, however, it's due time the UNT running game show up. UNT topped the 2,000-yard mark as a team last year, but after four games, the Mean Green is on a pace to only produce 75 percent of that. Tulane has been vulnerable against the run. Before it gave up just 26 yards to a Louisiana-Monroe team that's among the worst rushing teams in the nation, Tulane was allowing more than 150 yards per game on the ground. UNT must make this the week the running game is restored. If that happens, the Mean Green should get halfway to blow eligibility with more than half the season to go.
> Key stat: 4, the number of sacks allowed by the UNT offensive line, good for a top 20 national ranking. The sturdy line is a big reason why senior QB Derek Thompson is on pace to throw for 500 more yards, 4 more TDs and 5 fewer INTs this season compared to 2012.
> The mob says: North Texas by 2.5
> So says I: North Texas 30, Tulane 28
http://www.texasfootball.com/college-news/view/180561