CSNbbs

Vegas is not buying Sagarin, which would have us a 1 point favorite

This could be called the "Underachieving Bowl" so far. I'm guessing the updated spread of 2.5 would make Rice a .5-pt favorite on neutral site so I think Vegas and Sagarin have it about right.

Thanks for posting thread as not much talk about the game this week as before the season started, most would argue this is the biggest game on the schedule. Don't know if that is still true or not but for a 'one game at a time' approach, it obviously is…

Storylines as I see them are the following…

Which 5th year Senior QB will step-up? Both have disappointed. Both message boards want to see the young guy but coaches sticking w/ Green and McH. Gotta believe the guy who plays a better game will lead his team to a W.

Third Down. Both are equally bad. Tulsa offense 97th and Tulsa D is 85th. Rice O 104th and D is surprisingly #38 (mostly b/c of giving up lots of big plays instead). Who can get the other team off-the-field and stay on-the-field?

After four games, Tulsa O is ranked #100 and D is ranked #90 in FBS. Can Rice move ball and stop a team that has not shown much in prior games?

Stack the box…Would expect both D-Coordinators to dare the other team to throw the ball to win. Offense that can either adjust/execute their game plan from what D is giving them should have big advantage . Will Ross being back make a difference for Rice..if Tulsa puts 8-9 in the box?

Turnovers..Rice is in middle of pack in FBS, Tulsa is #116 in FBS. If trend holds, Rice should be fine. Tulsa has double digit fumbles and INT's after four games.

Basically, on all statistical measures…Rice is a mediocre FBS team that has underachieved since the 1H of game one but Tulsa is a bad team from first game through fourth game. Maybe they get it together this week but the evidence for this team shows a poor football team in all facets. If Rice is to get the Tulsa monkey off-its-back it is definitely set-up well for Saturday. Negativity on Tulsa message boards makes Parliament look like the poster child of hope and optimism...TU Fans have done a 180 on the Hurricane...

Can you post a link to their message board. It isn't listed on the Rice Web letter.

I don't know what to expect on Saturday. We match up well against them, if our offense shows up. Tulsa is a one-dimensional running team that really only passes when it has to. If Rice's offense has cured itself, there's a much bigger threat of a passing game than theirs.
I'm sure both teams will be focussed. The way I see it, it's the game of the year for both. It's a must win. Both teams have struggled so far. I hate to imagine what could happen to the loser, but the winner should gain a lot of momentum and hope. It's a perfect opportunity for Bailiff to show that progress is being made. I realize Tulsa isn't great this year, but it's a chance to go on the road and beat an opponent that we've lost to four years in a row. This is a statement game.

Vegas lines are about perception, not analysis.

If you want to bet on the game, take Rice and the points.

If you want a sure thing, keep your money in your pocket.

I think Rice has shown some good stuff at times, and Tulsa has yet to show much. More upside for Rice.

We were one big play short of upsetting them last year when they were good. So one more tackle this year.....?

(10-02-2013 11:37 AM)Afflicted Wrote: [ -> ]I don't know what to expect on Saturday. We match up well against them, if our offense shows up. Tulsa is a one-dimensional running team that really only passes when it has to. If Rice's offense has cured itself, there's a much bigger threat of a passing game than theirs.
I'm sure both teams will be focussed. The way I see it, it's the game of the year for both. It's a must win. Both teams have struggled so far. I hate to imagine what could happen to the loser, but the winner should gain a lot of momentum and hope. It's a perfect opportunity for Bailiff to show that progress is being made. I realize Tulsa isn't great this year, but it's a chance to go on the road and beat an opponent that we've lost to four* years in a row. This is a statement game.

*six
and nine of the last ten

I found the message board...thanks anyway!!

This is about how I figured this game would look 9 months ago. Both teams are slightly weaker than I expected, but I knew Tulsa would be down from previous seasons, but likely favored at home.

This is in contrast to Rice v. UH, where Rice looks weaker than I expected but UH looks much stronger than I expected.

(10-02-2013 11:08 AM)owl40 Wrote: [ -> ]Which 5th year Senior QB will step-up? Both have disappointed. Both message boards want to see the young guy but coaches sticking w/ Green and McH. Gotta believe the guy who plays a better game will lead his team to a W.

I'll take the dissenting view that the QB who leads his team to a W will be perceived as the one who played a better game.

(10-02-2013 11:08 AM)owl40 Wrote: [ -> ]Stack the box…Would expect both D-Coordinators to dare the other team to throw the ball to win. Offense that can either adjust/execute their game plan from what D is giving them should have big advantage . Will Ross being back make a difference for Rice..if Tulsa puts 8-9 in the box?

I have to think Ross will be a big difference maker as he's shown he can consistently drag 8-9 players at 5+ yards a clip.

All that said, I'm pretty Optimistic about the game, leaving me prone to have reality have its way with my ego.

I think this is the last game I'll be able to see until Halloween (where I will unfortunately miss the game because of trick-or-treating obligations).

(10-02-2013 11:08 AM)owl40 Wrote: [ -> ]Negativity on Tulsa message boards makes Parliament look like the poster child of hope and optimism...TU Fans have done a 180 on the Hurricane...

That's because they have much higher expectations than we do, and rightly so. They've had several good teams in the last decade.

I don't know what people are smoking, but here's the long and short of it: Tulsa's gonna beat us. I've seen both Tulsa and Rice a couple of times, and as bad as Tulsa appears to be, we're worse.

FWIW ... I don't necessarily think that we're "worse" than Tulsa. Don't forget that Iowa State beat Tulsa by 17 at Tulsa.

I think part of this is that we're not used to watching a defensively-oriented team (a rarity for sure in recent CUSA). Grinding out 21-17 wins count just as much as winning 49-42 (fully recognizing that we very easily could/should have lost last week).

That being said ... I see a really tight game Saturday. If we get beat badly, we might be in bowl game peril.

(10-02-2013 11:37 AM)Afflicted Wrote: [ -> ]I don't know what to expect on Saturday. We match up well against them, if our offense shows up. Tulsa is a one-dimensional running team that really only passes when it has to. If Rice's offense has cured itself, there's a much bigger threat of a passing game than theirs.
I'm sure both teams will be focussed. The way I see it, it's the game of the year for both. It's a must win. Both teams have struggled so far. I hate to imagine what could happen to the loser, but the winner should gain a lot of momentum and hope. It's a perfect opportunity for Bailiff to show that progress is being made. I realize Tulsa isn't great this year, but it's a chance to go on the road and beat an opponent that we've lost to four years in a row. This is a statement game.

Perfect analysis, in my opinion.
If our offense improves significantly over the FAU game and our D holds up..we win. Maybe in the 3-7 point range.
If not..it's going to be a rough October for our OWLS.

(10-02-2013 11:08 AM)owl40 Wrote: [ -> ]Third Down. Both are equally bad. Tulsa offense 97th and Tulsa D is 85th. Rice O 104th and D is surprisingly #38 (mostly b/c of giving up lots of big plays instead). Who can get the other team off-the-field and stay on-the-field?

Turnovers..Rice is in middle of pack in FBS, Tulsa is #116 in FBS. If trend holds, Rice should be fine. Tulsa has double digit fumbles and INT's after four games.

The big pass play for a TD worries me. We still seem to give those up each game. I agree that if turnovers are equal, Rice should be in good shape in Tulsa.

(10-02-2013 11:18 AM)OwlMom15 Wrote: [ -> ]Can you post a link to their message board. It isn't listed on the Rice Web letter.

Sorry, there was a defective link. It's fixed now, and I put a separate link to their football message board....

(10-02-2013 01:06 PM)Ricefootballnet Wrote: [ -> ]

(10-02-2013 11:18 AM)OwlMom15 Wrote: [ -> ]Can you post a link to their message board. It isn't listed on the Rice Web letter.

Sorry, there was a defective link. It's fixed now, and I put a separate link to their football message board....

Thank you!

(10-02-2013 11:47 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote: [ -> ]If you want a sure thing, keep your money in your pocket.

Best advice I've seen in quite a while!

Hopefully the guys will come out and play and not be nice about it. Good to see concern of Baliff. Hope he challenges them--listened to TCU affiliate broadcast while driving and Patterson gave his guys an ultimatum to be better. If guys are under achieving, then it is time to step up, staff and players.

Ross helps, but against Kansas our offense struggled even with Ross having a big game. We can run the ball, we know that. We have Jordan Taylor so hopefully we can make some big plays in the passing game. Reagan and Bailiff have to come up with a good gameplan to put our O-line and QB's in good position. Would like to find a way to get Eddington the ball more. A senior who had 10 rushing TD's as a freshman, later added Rice's first KO return TD in a few decades, should be a bigger factor.

Also interesting how over/under opened at 59.5 and now dropped to 54. ~10% swing is pretty big/unusual with no material news to affect that. Vegas professionals clearly saw that Rice's offense has struggled recently and Tulsa's offense is ranked #100 in FBS.

(10-03-2013 05:53 AM)owl40 Wrote: [ -> ]Also interesting how over/under opened at 59.5 and now dropped to 54. ~10% swing is pretty big/unusual with no material news to affect that. Vegas professionals clearly saw that Rice's offense has struggled recently and Tulsa's offense is ranked #100 in FBS.

I think Vegas will be surprised how many points Rice's defense will score.

If by Vegas you mean the betters taking the under, then yes, they won't be happy with pick-sixes. If you're referring to the sports books, they couldn't care less.