Next year, the highest ranked G5 school, if not in the 4-team playoff, will be awarded a spot in a BCS game (Fiesta, Peach, etc.).
Given the schedule, UC has a very good shot at being ranked and could be the highest ranked G5 school year in and year out. Their main competition will come from Fresno State, UCF and Northern Illinois.
It's obvious that the money and competition is better in the P5 conferences but, if a BCS bowl game is the goal, then is UC better off in the American? We're most likely to be a "middle of the pack" team in the Big12 and at best, third in the ACC.
Thoughts?
(09-17-2013 02:31 PM)mac6115cd Wrote: [ -> ]Next year, the highest ranked G5 school, if not in the 4-team playoff, will be awarded a spot in a BCS game (Fiesta, Peach, etc.).
Given the schedule, UC has a very good shot at being ranked and could be the highest ranked G5 school year in and year out. Their main competition will come from Fresno State, UCF and Northern Illinois.
It's obvious that the money and competition is better in the P5 conferences but, if a BCS bowl game is the goal, then is UC better off in the American? We're most likely to be a "middle of the pack" team in the Big12 and at best, third in the ACC.
Thoughts?
For the near term, we're in a good competitive position. We still have a reserve of cash from the AAC/Big East split and that will allow us to maintain the program on an ultra-competitive level. Given the current setup, that puts us in a great position to secure a spot in the access bowl; however, that cash won't last forever. And when we sink down to the level of the other AAC/MWC programs, it's going to be hard to set ourselves apart. The Nippert renovation will help on the revenue side, but the crappy T.V. deal will be an anchor around our necks. We can tread water and maybe even excel on a consistent level for the next few years, but if we aren't with the big boys by the time the next t.v. renegotiation occurs for conferences like the B12, we could be in trouble.
(09-17-2013 02:31 PM)mac6115cd Wrote: [ -> ]Next year, the highest ranked G5 school, if not in the 4-team playoff, will be awarded a spot in a BCS game (Fiesta, Peach, etc.).
Given the schedule, UC has a very good shot at being ranked and could be the highest ranked G5 school year in and year out. Their main competition will come from Fresno State, UCF and Northern Illinois.
It's obvious that the money and competition is better in the P5 conferences but, if a BCS bowl game is the goal, then is UC better off in the American? We're most likely to be a "middle of the pack" team in the Big12 and at best, third in the ACC.
Thoughts?
You forgot about Boise St, probably our biggest competition year in and year out for the G5 top ranked team. Also it's been noted many times before that it doesnt make sense to say we would be middle of pack or "at best" third in P5 conferences. Obviously we would not be the top team in the conference at the moment we joined, but the same was true when we joined Big East and e ended up dominating the conference after BK arrived. If we join a P5 conference then recruiting and money will pick up dramatically so who's to say we couldn't grow to be an elite team in the ACC or Big 12 just as we grew to one in the Big East before the conference was devoured by a pack of rabid wolves.
Big Boy Club is my preference, the TV money is too good to pass up. Athletic Dept needs it.
Much bigger risk hoping to be the G5 school that gets the Access Bowl bid. If you don't get it
the AD is working chump change.
They're always better off promoting the brand and the school. You can do that better playing 50/50 games against B12/ACC schools than you can even dominating AAC teams.
Good discussion. I'm not sure that path to G5 access is all that simple. Had it been in place this season the loss to IL would have been devastating and those types of performances are bound to happen. While UC is blessed with better resources in the near term, it's now a competition among five conferences for one seat at the table compared with the clear path of winning an eight team conference this season for the BCS berth. I believe UC will be near the top of the G5 but there is little margin for error in a twelve game season. And historically the polls haven't been friendly toward UC which will hurt too.
Look at all of the whining the media has done so far about Louisville's schedule and how it hurts them.
Unless UC is able to schedule (and beat) at least 2 legitimate P5 schools a year and 2-3 AAC teams can do the same it could take an undefeated or 1-2 loss season just to get into the top 25.
(09-17-2013 03:21 PM)bearcatfan Wrote: [ -> ]Look at all of the whining the media has done so far about Louisville's schedule and how it hurts them.
Unless UC is able to schedule (and beat) at least 2 legitimate P5 schools a year and 2-3 AAC teams can do the same it could take an undefeated or 1-2 loss season just to get into the top 25.
That's been Boise's model for the last decade or so. Unfortunately, because the P5 conferences are increasing the number of conference games, it will become much more difficult to schedule quality P5 opponents. The model may not work going forward.
If the American can gets it TV deal in the 6 to 8 million dollar range it might be the best place for UC assuming nobody else leaves the league. Basketball wise this conference is a perfect fit for UC.
The ACC is not a bad option for football because the league is filled with average teams but its so bloated right now that I am not sure UC wouldn't get lost in the shuffle. Basketball wise this league could be a program killer due to the depth of quality programs.
The Big XII would be a solid option if they expand to 14 with mostly eastern schools. If UC was in a division with Iowa State, WVU, Kansas, Kansas State plus any of the following UCF, USF, Memphis, or Tulane they could easily compete for a division title and potential BCS level game. Basketball wise I am not sure this is a great fit.
UC, Houston, UCF, ECU, Boise State, and Fresno State are the schools the watch. The MAC and C-USA might have a school every ten years that rises up but I am not worried about them.
(09-17-2013 03:55 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote: [ -> ]Basketball wise this conference is a perfect fit for UC.
Hope you are right, but my fear is that 5/3rd Arena will have lots of empty seats this year and for years to come playing against such low level basketball programs. How many folks are going to come out on a wintry Thursday night to see the Cats play UCF?
(09-17-2013 03:55 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote: [ -> ]If the American can gets it TV deal in the 6 to 8 million dollar range it might be the best place for UC assuming nobody else leaves the league. Basketball wise this conference is a perfect fit for UC.
The ACC is not a bad option for football because the league is filled with average teams but its so bloated right now that I am not sure UC wouldn't get lost in the shuffle. Basketball wise this league could be a program killer due to the depth of quality programs.
The Big XII would be a solid option if they expand to 14 with mostly eastern schools. If UC was in a division with Iowa State, WVU, Kansas, Kansas State plus any of the following UCF, USF, Memphis, or Tulane they could easily compete for a division title and potential BCS level game. Basketball wise I am not sure this is a great fit.
UC, Houston, UCF, ECU, Boise State, and Fresno State are the schools the watch. The MAC and C-USA might have a school every ten years that rises up but I am not worried about them.
Not without Louisville IMHO.
(09-17-2013 04:05 PM)Ragpicker Wrote: [ -> ] (09-17-2013 03:55 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote: [ -> ]Basketball wise this conference is a perfect fit for UC.
Hope you are right, but my fear is that 5/3rd Arena will have lots of empty seats this year and for years to come playing against such low level basketball programs. How many folks are going to come out on a wintry Thursday night to see the Cats play UCF?
Probably about the same amount that came out to watch Seton Hall, Providence, DePaul, St. John's, and Rutgers over the last handful for years.
All UC needs to do is be one of the flagship brands of this league and make the NCAA tournament every season. Non-conference should improve over the next few years.
All I know is that if UC didn't have any trouble in C-USA filling up the place. Give the Cats a new or renovated arena mix in about 25 wins a year plus a tournament birth and watch the attendance grow. Basketball is very different from football football so I as long as UC is playing on an ESPN platform and winning game I believe we have a very good situation.
I think fans would rather UC finish 25-6 against an average schedule than finish 21-10 against a brutal schedule. History shows that the first team gets a better seed.
(09-17-2013 04:25 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote: [ -> ]All I know is that if UC didn't have any trouble in C-USA filling up the place.
Agree with most of what you posted except the ESPN platform. Won't be enough if they are relegated much of the time to the internet on ESPN3.
I think we UC fans filled the arena during C-USA days because winning was so new. And we did make a Final Four while in the Great Midwest. Sure hope everyone gets on Mick's bandwagon this winter.
After UofL (especially) and Rutgers is gone, they will be replaced with teams further down the reputation scale.
Quite simply the City of Cincinnati has proven time and time again it is not a minor league town when it comes to supporting teams. The AAC is a minor league in college sports.
(09-17-2013 04:45 PM)Ragpicker Wrote: [ -> ] (09-17-2013 04:25 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote: [ -> ]All I know is that if UC didn't have any trouble in C-USA filling up the place.
Agree with most of what you posted except the ESPN platform. Won't be enough if they are relegated much of the time to the internet on ESPN3.
I think we UC fans filled the arena during C-USA days because winning was so new. And we did make a Final Four while in the Great Midwest. Sure hope everyone gets on Mick's bandwagon this winter.
After UofL (especially) and Rutgers is gone, they will be replaced with teams further down the reputation scale.
Quite simply the City of Cincinnati has proven time and time again it is not a minor league town when it comes to supporting teams. The AAC is a minor league in college sports.
AAC isn't minor league in basketball. TV contract is not for ESPN3. Check out this season's conference schedule its a nice mix of ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, CBS, and CBSNS.
We could argue that the American isn't big boy football but basketball is different. There are 8 major college basketball conferences and the American is one of them.
(09-17-2013 03:55 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote: [ -> ]If the American can gets it TV deal in the 6 to 8 million dollar range it might be the best place for UC assuming nobody else leaves the league. Basketball wise this conference is a perfect fit for UC.
6 to 8 million per team? That isn't happening in this league.
The AAC vs. CUSA comparison is not a good one in basketball. CUSA was a very good basketball conference with Louisville, Memphis, Marquette, Charlotte, Saint Louis, DePaul, UAB. It wasn't unusual for that conference to get 5-6 teams in the NCAA's each year.
(09-17-2013 05:03 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote: [ -> ] (09-17-2013 03:55 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote: [ -> ]If the American can gets it TV deal in the 6 to 8 million dollar range it might be the best place for UC assuming nobody else leaves the league. Basketball wise this conference is a perfect fit for UC.
6 to 8 million per team? That isn't happening in this league.
Correct, and with playoff conference money (after the BCS ends)
in addition to the regular TV contract UC would be cashing a check
in the 30 million plus range in the Big 12. UC can compete in that
conference, win games and go much better bowl games.
(09-17-2013 05:35 PM)vabearcat Wrote: [ -> ]The AAC vs. CUSA comparison is not a good one in basketball. CUSA was a very good basketball conference with Louisville, Memphis, Marquette, Charlotte, Saint Louis, DePaul, UAB. It wasn't unusual for that conference to get 5-6 teams in the NCAA's each year.
Not a good comparison? Those leagues are like identical twins in basketball. I think C-USA had one season with six bids while the other seasons typically range around four with one season being as low as two.
UConn, Cincinnati, Temple, and Memphis are pretty much equal to are better than the late 1990's early 2000's versions of Cincinnati, Marquette, Louisville, and Memphis.
Charlotte, St. Louis, DePaul, and UAB had some solid seasons but they didn't make the tournament every season. I expect a few schools every season from the group of SMU, Houston, UCF, USF, and Tulsa to step up every and fill out the middle of the league the same Charlotte, St. Louis, UAB, DePaul, and company did in C-USA.
I think the old CUSA was better as well, but more to the point we are not going to be a Big Time Football Program long term if we are stuck in the AAC. I am not as worried about basketball, though the difference in finances between us at the P5 is very worrisome.
(09-17-2013 06:03 PM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]I think the old CUSA was better as well, but more to the point we are not going to be a Big Time Football Program long term if we are stuck in the AAC. I am not as worried about basketball, though the difference in finances between us at the P5 is very worrisome.
Spot on, the biggest concern is football perception and money. If there way for the American to make more money that would solve half the problem. The other would be support for a larger playoff where every conference representation.
Once again I still believe there are dangers about joining a power conference that isn't a great fit but Cincinnati doesn't get to pick where it goes.