So I waded in on the conference board after chewing on the upcoming season for a bit. This is what I have. What do you guys think about the season, realistically? I'd be curious to break down the opinions statistically if we have a decent enough sample. I'm just trying to get my head around what sort of expectations to have given what I see as a fairly decent schedule, our coach's second year, our current talent and all that.
Am I being unrealistic? Too reserved? I can take it.
Or really more to the point: What do we collectively expect to get out of this impending campaign?
Quote:I see six wins as a floor for UAB this year.
08/21/13 Troy, Ala. 6:00 p.m. CT
09/07/13 at LSU Baton Rouge, La. TBA
09/21/13 vs. Northwestern State Birmingham, Ala. TBA
09/28/13 at Vanderbilt Nashville, Tenn. TBA
10/05/13 vs. Florida Atlantic * Birmingham, Ala. TBA
10/12/13 at Florida International * TV Miami, Fla. TBA
10/26/13 at UTSA * TV San Antonio, Texas 4:00 p.m. CT
11/02/13 vs. Middle Tennessee State *TV Birmingham, Ala.12:00 p.m. CT
11/09/13 at Marshall * TV Huntington, W.Va. 11:00 a.m. CT
11/16/13 at East Carolina * Greenville, N.C. TBA
11/21/13 vs. Rice * TV Birmingham, Ala. 6:30 p.m. CT
11/30/13 vs. Southern Miss * Birmingham, Ala. TBA
So Troy is 1, NWS 2, 3 & 4 among the FUs and UTSA (one of them is gonna get us), 5 comes from the next run through MTSU, Marsha and ECU (Batting .333 here), and 6 is our 50% change of either Rice or USM.
That's the floor. I can actually totally see coach surprising us on the upside in season two here which means we could potentially run up to 8 wins in a good campaign (adding the other FU UTSA game and one more from the middle part).
A miracle season could go as high as 10 wins (where we pick up Vandy, but swoon still in one random conference game), but we've never had a miracle season.
So... 6-10 wins this year for UAB. Book it.
6 = 100% chance
7 = 60% chance maybe
8 = 30% chance
9 = 5% chance
10 = .00001% chance
That's all I got. Goo Blazers!
I really think our season is going to depend on where we're sitting after game 7. We can realistically be anywhere between 2-5 and 5-2 after that stretch. The closer we are to .500, the more confident our guys should be, and they should be playing for more. If we are 2-5, the wheels could completely fall off. I really think this team has a floor of 4 wins and a ceiling of 9. I've looked it over time and time again, and I really think we are looking at a 5-7 to 7-5 season.
(07-09-2013 09:46 AM)BlazingGoat Wrote: [ -> ]So I waded in on the conference board after chewing on the upcoming season for a bit. This is what I have. What do you guys think about the season, realistically? I'd be curious to break down the opinions statistically if we have a decent enough sample. I'm just trying to get my head around what sort of expectations to have given what I see as a fairly decent schedule, our coach's second year, our current talent and all that.
Am I being unrealistic? Too reserved? I can take it. Or really more to the point: What do we collectively expect to get out of this impending campaign?
Quote:I see six wins as a floor for UAB this year.
08/21/13 Troy, Ala. 6:00 p.m. CT
09/07/13 at LSU Baton Rouge, La. TBA
09/21/13 vs. Northwestern State Birmingham, Ala. TBA
09/28/13 at Vanderbilt Nashville, Tenn. TBA
10/05/13 vs. Florida Atlantic * Birmingham, Ala. TBA
10/12/13 at Florida International * TV Miami, Fla. TBA
10/26/13 at UTSA * TV San Antonio, Texas 4:00 p.m. CT
11/02/13 vs. Middle Tennessee State *TV Birmingham, Ala.12:00 p.m. CT
11/09/13 at Marshall * TV Huntington, W.Va. 11:00 a.m. CT
11/16/13 at East Carolina * Greenville, N.C. TBA
11/21/13 vs. Rice * TV Birmingham, Ala. 6:30 p.m. CT
11/30/13 vs. Southern Miss * Birmingham, Ala. TBA
So Troy is 1, NWS 2, 3 & 4 among the FUs and UTSA (one of them is gonna get us), 5 comes from the next run through MTSU, Marsha and ECU (Batting .333 here), and 6 is our 50% change of either Rice or USM.
That's the floor. I can actually totally see coach surprising us on the upside in season two here which means we could potentially run up to 8 wins in a good campaign (adding the other FU UTSA game and one more from the middle part).
A miracle season could go as high as 10 wins (where we pick up Vandy, but swoon still in one random conference game), but we've never had a miracle season.
So... 6-10 wins this year for UAB. Book it.
6 = 100% chance
7 = 60% chance maybe
8 = 30% chance
9 = 5% chance
10 = .00001% chance
That's all I got. Goo Blazers!
All the games are important, but IMO never has a first game meant so much to a team's season. We MUST beat Troy to have a successful season and make a bowl run!
Yeah, no matter which way I look at it that first one looks huge.
I have great expectations.
Haven't we already done this thread this year?
(07-09-2013 12:34 PM)Memphis Blazer Wrote: [ -> ]Haven't we already done this thread this year?
I actually looked back a number of pages. I do remember something similar, but what I'm looking for is actual numbers. I'm interested in seeing if we can get a real good sample of what folks think top, bottom, and best middle guess.
What's the zeitgeist, where is the collective Blazer head on this?
To that end, while "great expectations" is nice, it doesn't do me much good as far as quantification goes.
EDIT: I probably should have made this a poll. Though having a chance to kinda explain the thinking helps.
I think we can get at least 6 wins. Starting off with a W would be huge.
We need to take both F_U games as well.
Ranking the games from most winnable to least.
Should Wins
1. Northwestern State. Last year we beat an FCS team 52-3. And that was a better team that had a player drafted in the second round.
2. @UTSA. Last year UTSA won 8 games, but the only FBS wins were South Alabama, Texas State, Idaho and New Mexico State. I'm unimpressed.
3. FAU. This game is really important. After 3 out of 4 road games to open the season, this game starts a streak of games we need to win for a big season. We really need to go 3-0 in October.
4. @FIU. Way to fire your best coach ever and replace him with someone that nobody remembers. I guess he was good 12 years ago?
Toss Ups
5. @Troy. Agree this is a huge game. It would be much better to start 2-2 instead of 1-3 before the schedule eases up in October.
6. Southern Miss. I doubt they are going winless again this year. I think this game could decide which team goes bowling and which stays home.
7. MTSU. This team was all over the place last year, but I think they are pretty good. They lost to an FCS team, but beat the crap out of Georgia Tech.
8. Rice. What is Rice doing way up here? Rice has a nice balanced offense and won three road games last year. Playing on a Thursday does favor the home team.
Road Warriors
9. @Marshall. We held Marshall to their worst offensive yardage last year, and they still scored 31 points. They were helped by 4 UAB turnovers. This will be a very difficult game to win.
10. @East Carolina. I think this is our toughest conference game, slightly harder than @Marshall. Winning either would be an upset unless we are better than I expect.
11. @Vanderbilt. I wish we had scheduled this game a few years ago. James Franklin has them rolling.
12. @LSU. Hey we did it my freshman year. Why not twice?
I really think this is a 6-6 team. I would be disappointed with less than 5 wins. I'd be amazed (in a good way) if we won more than 8.
I expect six to seven wins. I look for us to surprise some teams this season.
Ask me after the troy game.
To say 0% chance of less than 6 wins seems crazy, IMHO
(07-09-2013 02:22 PM)LairDweller Wrote: [ -> ]To say 0% chance of less than 6 wins seems crazy, IMHO
Consider the source.
(07-09-2013 02:22 PM)LairDweller Wrote: [ -> ]To say 0% chance of less than 6 wins seems crazy, IMHO
funny way to put it, but i've got you down as an expected floor of 0 wins.
is your ceiling then a regular season 12?
might skew the numbers a bit, but this is an opinion thread about our individual and then collective expectations after all.
7-5
wins over troy
Northwestern st
both Florida teams
UTSA
MTSU and
1 of the two between Rice and USM
(07-09-2013 04:19 PM)amsterdam1702 Wrote: [ -> ]7-5
wins over troy
Northwestern st
both Florida teams
UTSA
MTSU and
1 of the two between Rice and USM
For me, the most incredible thing about UAB football is the four-game winning streak against Southern Miss. However, we never could beat them when Jeff Bower was their coach. Of course, they fired him for some reason.
5-7. I'm done with the "this is our year" predictions. I will attend all five home games, and at least two road games, and enjoy every minute of this season. I'm setting my expectations low in the event that Lucy sh*ts on Legion Field's cheap-ass-troturf yet again in 2013.
(07-09-2013 09:28 PM)FNblazer Wrote: [ -> ]5-7. I'm done with the "this is our year" predictions. I will attend all five home games, and at least two road games, and enjoy every minute of this season. I'm setting my expectations low in the event that Lucy sh*ts on Legion Field's cheap-ass-troturf yet again in 2013.
Certainly understandable...
6 to 8 wins is what I am expecting.
1-1
Win- NW State
Loss- LSU
Every other game I am hoping the coin flips in our favor. Troy is HUGE