119. UTSA
In a nutshell It's easy to fall in love with how Texas at San Antonio played a season ago, winning eight games against an FBS-heavy schedule, and it's even easier to fall in love with the program's potential. The Roadrunners played their first game in 2011; two years later, the program is a full-blooded member of Conference USA, one of the most secure non-AQ leagues in college football. At this rate, UTSA will be the SEC's newest member by 2018.
The lone negative to stem from last season's wonderful finish is how it ratcheted up expectations for 2013, and I think that's a touch unfair to Coker and this specific team. I'm very low on the Roadrunners' chances to come anywhere close to last season's finish as a first-year member of Conference USA, playing this sort of schedule – and remember that 2012's slate included four non-FBS teams and four of the worst FBS teams in the country, so there were some smoke and mirrors behind the 8-4 record.
What's to like? A leader like Soza is irreplaceable; Soza is someone to like immensely. The passing game will be able to spread the ball around to six or seven different receivers, though no one specific target will scare opposing defenses. The running game returns its top three producers. The defensive line is surprisingly deep and experienced. The linebacker corps features two playmakers in the starting lineup. There are three returning starters at safety.
The issue for UTSA is extremely inadequate depth, and this will be plainly evident as the Roadrunners go up against the meat of this year's schedule. The offensive line has only one backup with past experience. The back seven on defense can't suffer any meaningful injuries. Another issue on offense is the lack of one leading skill player with game-breaking potential. This is not a complete team, in my mind, and I see UTSA taking a sizable step back in the win column during its first season as a member of Conference USA.
Dream season UTSA goes 1-3 in non-conference play but 5-3 against league competition, finishing tied for second in the West Division and reaching bowl eligibility.
Nightmare season The Roadrunners find the increased level of competition a bit too much to handle: 1-11, 1-7.
Read Myerberg's Complete Preview
HERE
118. Florida International
In a nutshell This isn't going to go well. How could it? FIU will combine a roster depleted by graduation and attrition with a new conference, a new schedule, a new coaching staff, new schemes and new philosophies, and the end result will be something far closer to last season's disastrous finish than the sort of always-competitive play FIU flashed during its back-to-back bowl runs from 2010-11. Beyond the changes that typically accompany a coaching move, FIU's biggest concern are the number of academic casualties – with that number still unknown – that could rob an already slim roster of some much-needed depth and starting experience. What sort of talent will FIU have if as many as 10 potential contributors are ineligible for at least the first portion of this coming season?
What FIU should feel positive about is its solid number of options at the offensive skill positions, from Medlock to Rhodes to a deep and athletic receiver corps. The bad news is that this talent could be more than negated by the in-progress offensive line; Medlock won't have time to find Wright nor Rhodes room to operate if the line doesn't round into form before the end of September. Defensively, the front four would take on a different feel if Faciane is back at full strength by August; that would push Brown and Dyson into reserve roles while giving FIU some beef to line up alongside Hickman, the converted end. But even an unexpectedly strong performance up front won't help FIU survive such massive changes along the back seven on defense.
To be honest, what I see when looking at FIU's roster, overall personnel, coaching moves and conference change is a multiple-year rebuilding job – not three or four years, perhaps, but at least two seasons of growth, development and hard work on the recruiting trail before the Panthers are back to the point where winning six or more games in successive seasons is a possibility. Now, the big question: Does Turner and this staff have what it takes to get this done?
Dream season FIU beats UCF and Bethune-Cookman in September and wins another five games in Conference USA play, taking seven games overall and earning a bowl bid as the second-best team in the East Division.
Nightmare season FIU beats Bethune-Cookman in September and UAB in October but that's all, capping a two-win season with a 21-point loss at FAU in the finale.
Read Myerberg's Complete Preview
HERE
FIU and UTSA will both will fair much better than this prediction.
(05-15-2013 06:03 AM)BRtransplant Wrote: [ -> ]FIU and UTSA will both will fair much better than this prediction.
Yeah, I agree with you as far as FIU is concerned, and tend to think UTSA will also do better, although I would not be surprised if the Roadrunners stumbles given the age of the program and typical growing pains of a young program like they have. I guess the midpoint of his predictions would be 3-4 wins for UTSA... I think 4-5 is reasonable.
FWIW, he had FIU #50 and UTSA #124 in last years preview.
I agree. Fiu will be better. Utsa will have a tough go in their first real season .
(05-15-2013 06:03 AM)BRtransplant Wrote: [ -> ]FIU and UTSA will both will fair much better than this prediction.
Keep those fingers crossed...the magic 8 ball I just shook says...Nope.
UTSA will be fine. I'd say between 3-6 wins but competitive in most games.
One thing to take away is our OOC schedule. We aren't playing scrubs anymore. I love scheduling OSU, Arizona and Houston. Gets the fan base ignited and puts us on the ESPN ticker.
Last year this guy had us dead last (124) and said we would be lucky to win 3 games. UTSA ended at 8-4. People will underestimate us until they play us.
Paul is usually pretty good, at least he does his homework and knows what was current including spring ball.
Yes he does miss from time to time, but I LOVE his countdown.
(05-16-2013 03:45 AM)SApuro Wrote: [ -> ]UTSA will be fine. I'd say between 3-6 wins but competitive in most games.
One thing to take away is our OOC schedule. We aren't playing scrubs anymore. I love scheduling OSU, Arizona and Houston. Gets the fan base ignited and puts us on the ESPN ticker.
Last year this guy had us dead last (124) and said we would be lucky to win 3 games. UTSA ended at 8-4. People will underestimate us until they play us.
I'd like to know where those 3-6 wins come from. Remember, you don't have any Div II teams, no FCS, no transitional FBS, no Idaho and no NMSU to get all the wins against this year.
And before you jump off the handle about underestimating and respect or anything like that. Remember WKU has been there. So just talking about reality.
Quote:Nightmare season FIU beats Bethune-Cookman in September and UAB in October but that's all, capping a two-win season with a 21-point loss at FAU in the finale.
So, he obviously has UAB ranked ahead of FIU, but
even in a nightmare scenario...FIU still beats UAB?
(05-17-2013 06:17 PM)BlazerFan11 Wrote: [ -> ]Quote:Nightmare season FIU beats Bethune-Cookman in September and UAB in October but that's all, capping a two-win season with a 21-point loss at FAU in the finale.
So, he obviously has UAB ranked ahead of FIU, but even in a nightmare scenario...FIU still beats UAB?
That struck me as odd as well. UAB probably coming soon though.
(05-16-2013 09:36 AM)Hilltop1215 Wrote: [ -> ] (05-16-2013 03:45 AM)SApuro Wrote: [ -> ]UTSA will be fine. I'd say between 3-6 wins but competitive in most games.
One thing to take away is our OOC schedule. We aren't playing scrubs anymore. I love scheduling OSU, Arizona and Houston. Gets the fan base ignited and puts us on the ESPN ticker.
Last year this guy had us dead last (124) and said we would be lucky to win 3 games. UTSA ended at 8-4. People will underestimate us until they play us.
I'd like to know where those 3-6 wins come from. Remember, you don't have any Div II teams, no FCS, no transitional FBS, no Idaho and no NMSU to get all the wins against this year.
And before you jump off the handle about underestimating and respect or anything like that. Remember WKU has been there. So just talking about reality.
While I'm not SApuro, I think these are the games that are winnable if we do everything right:
New Mexico
UAB
Tulane
North Texas
The following are games I expect us to compete:
UTEP
Rice
LaTech
With losses to:
OkSt
Arizona
Tulsa
Marshall
Note: I can only compare how this years opponents played against common opponents from last season, and compare that to how well we faired with said opponents. That is, those that played South Alabama, NMSU, Rice, LaTech, SJSU, USU, TxSt, Idaho.
Many of this Fall's projections will be based on last Fall's teams. I don't guess last year's graduating seniors figure in some of these prognosticators write-ups.
(05-17-2013 06:17 PM)BlazerFan11 Wrote: [ -> ]Quote:Nightmare season FIU beats Bethune-Cookman in September and UAB in October but that's all, capping a two-win season with a 21-point loss at FAU in the finale.
So, he obviously has UAB ranked ahead of FIU, but even in a nightmare scenario...FIU still beats UAB?
...we have a uncanny ability to play down to the level of our competition...
...not that FIU isn't capable of whuppin' us anyway... but then again, if we are on all cylinders, I'm thinking bowl SOMEwhere...
(05-15-2013 06:09 AM)Chappy Wrote: [ -> ] (05-15-2013 06:03 AM)BRtransplant Wrote: [ -> ]FIU and UTSA will both will fair much better than this prediction.
Yeah, I agree with you as far as FIU is concerned, and tend to think UTSA will also do better, although I would not be surprised if the Roadrunners stumbles given the age of the program and typical growing pains of a young program like they have. I guess the midpoint of his predictions would be 3-4 wins for UTSA... I think 4-5 is reasonable.
I'm worried UTSA is going to get beat up and injured in the OOC games and that's going to ruin the season.
UTSA should not have schedule so aggressively. = /
(05-17-2013 07:22 PM)slow-runner Wrote: [ -> ]The following are games I expect us to compete:
UTEP
Rice
LaTech
If UTSA is healthy at the end of the season, I think UTSA has a good chance of beating La Tech. They lost so many players and their coach. They were not good on defense last year. After the game Sosa will probably propose to his second wife and ride off into the sunset. = )
I don't understand what people see when they think La Tech is going to be good this year.
Last season Rice was just plain better than UTSA. I don't know what could have changed to make this year any different. UTSA should be a little better but the team is essentially the same.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Ootsa did beat us. Last year in a comparable game against Enemas U. we almost had identical scores. That Soza kid is very good I was impressed. But, now comes the but, we had a lousy qb and he's graduated so we ONLY have an ex-qb from AandM for the next two years. I really think this kid is much, much better than Lamaison but we shall see. IF, big IF, Showers does prove that he was worthy of being recruited by AandM then we have a good chance of going bowling. Can't wait.
(05-17-2013 11:57 PM)jarmzet Wrote: [ -> ] (05-17-2013 07:22 PM)slow-runner Wrote: [ -> ]The following are games I expect us to compete:
UTEP
Rice
LaTech
If UTSA is healthy at the end of the season, I think UTSA has a good chance of beating La Tech. They lost so many players and their coach. They were not good on defense last year. After the game Sosa will probably propose to his second wife and ride off into the sunset. = )
I don't understand what people see when they think La Tech is going to be good this year.
Last season Rice was just plain better than UTSA. I don't know what could have changed to make this year any different. UTSA should be a little better but the team is essentially the same.
I think the Rice game was a turning point for our team last season. Rice was the first team our guys played that was a household name. Our guys seemed nervous, dropped way too many passes, had way to many mix ups in responsibility, and just didn't click. After this game something happened; The team seemed to change. They still lost against SJSU and Utah State. But they fought like they should/could win. By the time they played LaTech, they seemed to belong in FBS.
So, this season playing Rice won't be something new. It's going to be a tough game and Rice is a solid team that should compete for the C-USA West. They are still bigger (especially at the tight-end position), and possibly faster, but maybe not stronger. Their secondary was not the problem last time; our receivers turned up-field before catching the balls. Our secondary is a soar spot so we'll have to see how well our guys grow. I think it will be competitive.
(BTW, when I say "compete" I don't mean we win. I mean we stay in the game and if those teams make mistakes then there is a possibility our guys surprise them.)
