CSNbbs

(05-02-2014 02:05 PM)TrueBlueAlum Wrote: [ -> ]1) I would like to make a suggestion to one of the mod's that maybe we have an "official 2014 Realignment Thread" so that when we get bits and pieces of info relevant to the topic we don't have to keep creating different threads. I say that because I didn't really know what thread to post the link below in and didn't want to annoy people by creating another very specific realignment thread.

2) Here are some comments directly from our AD about what the Sun Belt is now searching for, for a new conference member. Nothing ground breaking, but does clarify a few things that we have been discussing. (Fast forward to about 3:30)

http://gseagles.com/news/2014/5/2/FB_0502144746.aspx

Good share, I haven't even seen this on our board yet. Doesn't sound good if I'm Liberty:

paraphrasing "We want to add someone to help with travel in the East, but we don't want to box ourself in with someone when a better candidate fit may be available next year" sounds like EKU or hoping for a change of heart from JMU.

(05-02-2014 02:28 PM)knucklehead Wrote: [ -> ]Funny how different people get different things out of what he said there. He left it wide open. They are discussing things, staying aware of things, etc.

Well he confirmed or hinted toward a few things...

1) They are not pushing to 12 as much anymore to get to a championship game. (Most likely because that de-regulation petition will pass) That lessens the pressure to add a football only member (U-Mass).

2) They are focusing more on finding a good travel partner for olympic sports to cut down on travel. (further alienating a U-Mass fb only invite)

3) They'd rather not hastily add members that aren't a good fit now that might box them in and not allow them to add more appropriate members later. IMO this isn't really good news for Liberty since you are really the only team ready to move now, this leaves the door open for an EKU, JSU, UTC type school in 2 or 3 years that might be a better fit and could be ready by then, or for some more realignment shake-ups that could allow us to invite another FBS school in a few years.

All that to say it seems they are leaning toward a mentality of patience at this point which basically means not good things for U-Mass and Liberty, and good things for the likes of teams like EKU who just need more time.

EDIT: But, as we've seen with realignment this could all change tomorrow.

I would say at this point I think it is becoming clear that neither UMass nor Liberty can get the 9 votes for an invitation. I am becoming more convinced the conference will stick at 11 for this year's cycle. When TK mentioned JMU had declined I read that as the only option the Sun Belt really wanted this year has declined so we stay at 11.

The only debate is whether UMass is added this year.

That's the impression from JMU high-ups.

If we had to have 12 then LU and others would have room for optimism, but he said they are in no hurry and don't want to add a 12th just to get to 12.

If deregulation passes and everyone is content with who they have in their conference, I would expect a group of schools to seek to join FBS through other avenues, meaning not through a conference invite, not through the WAC and not necessarily through a lawsuit... I believe it is bound to happen considering that some current FBS schools do not meet NCAA requirements already.

(05-02-2014 03:09 PM)LUcanesfan Wrote: [ -> ]If deregulation passes and everyone is content with who they have in their conference, I would expect a group of schools to seek to join FBS through other avenues, meaning not through a conference invite, not through the WAC and not necessarily through a lawsuit... I believe it is bound to happen considering that some current FBS schools do not meet NCAA requirements already.

I cannot begin to tell you how much I hope this happens.

(05-02-2014 02:28 PM)knucklehead Wrote: [ -> ]Funny how different people get different things out of what he said there. He left it wide open. They are discussing things, staying aware of things, etc.

Denial is NOT a river in Egypt

(05-02-2014 03:42 PM)panama Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-02-2014 02:28 PM)knucklehead Wrote: [ -> ]Funny how different people get different things out of what he said there. He left it wide open. They are discussing things, staying aware of things, etc.

Denial is NOT a river in Egypt

Acceptance though is the first step in the we aren't going FBS recovery program. Some of the more realistic LU fans over on your FF board seem to be able to read into this a bit with the lets not rush to get to 12(LU) comment. Combine that with the EKU prez and there is momentum for UMASS or 11.

(05-02-2014 03:09 PM)LUcanesfan Wrote: [ -> ]If deregulation passes and everyone is content with who they have in their conference, I would expect a group of schools to seek to join FBS through other avenues, meaning not through a conference invite, not through the WAC and not necessarily through a lawsuit... I believe it is bound to happen considering that some current FBS schools do not meet NCAA requirements already.

The WAC option is now dead.
The invite method is the only one available but for
Litigation or
Seek to amend the rules

I don't see any of the G5 and probably none of P5 supporting changing the rules.

I cant imagine that given the additional costs we are about to assume that there is going to be a mad en masse as a group rush to FBS

I'd agree this doesn't sound good for UMass or Liberty.

They no longer need 12 for football championship game. They only desire 12 to add somebody in the east to help in travel for olympic sports which all but rules out UMass as they would not help in travel in any way and would make matters worse while making things harder for adding the "right fit" later.

Its AAC or bust for UMass and I don't think UMass has any chance for AAC given what their commissioner has recently said either.

Liberty will be put on the back-burner for another year to see if EKU or another school becomes available first. The deregulation sure changed the Sun Belt's tune on rushing to get to 12.

Considering what the GA South AD just said with only 2 or 3 weeks left until a school would have to be added, It sounds like a lock that the Sun Belt is sticking with 11.

There is no benefit of adding UMass or Liberty to get to 12 if conference champion deregulation is going to pass.

And as the Ga Southern AD said, they are smart to not rush into adding either this year when something better will come along.

UMass and Liberty are going no where and will be equally eager to join the Sun Belt next year if the Sun Belt needs them. Nobody else in FBS wants either so Sun Belt is their only possible slim option as UMass twists in the wind and no other conference has interest in Liberty.

UMass is in a bad situation getting worse. They are a bad program already and how do you convince any decent recruits to sign onto a program that has no conference and no idea what its future is or if it can make it. It will snowball.

If we cannot get a right fit now, are we going to get a right fit later.
Who determines what the right fit is? Will we ever really get a right fit?

It reminds me of young couple deciding when the perfect time is to start having kids. The hard truth is that there rarely ever comes a perfect time.

(05-02-2014 04:42 PM)GoApps70 Wrote: [ -> ]If we cannot get a right fit now, are we going to get a right fit later.
Who determines what the right fit is? Will we ever really get a right fit?

The right fits said no. So now it becomes what are you willing to live with. UMass or 11. That simple.

(05-02-2014 04:46 PM)SlyFox Wrote: [ -> ]It reminds me of young couple deciding when the perfect time is to start having kids. The hard truth is that there rarely ever comes a perfect time.

Youre the kid we are giving away

(05-02-2014 04:50 PM)panama Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-02-2014 04:42 PM)GoApps70 Wrote: [ -> ]If we cannot get a right fit now, are we going to get a right fit later.
Who determines what the right fit is? Will we ever really get a right fit?

The right fits said no. So now it becomes what are you willing to live with. UMass or 11. That simple.

11

(05-02-2014 04:28 PM)Miami (Oh) Yeah ! Wrote: [ -> ]I'd agree this doesn't sound good for UMass or Liberty.

They no longer need 12 for football championship game. They only desire 12 to add somebody in the east to help in travel for olympic sports which all but rules out UMass as they would not help in travel in any way and would make matters worse while making things harder for adding the "right fit" later.

Its AAC or bust for UMass and I don't think UMass has any chance for AAC given what their commissioner has recently said either.

Liberty will be put on the back-burner for another year to see if EKU or another school becomes available first. The deregulation sure changed the Sun Belt's tune on rushing to get to 12.

Considering what the GA South AD just said with only 2 or 3 weeks left until a school would have to be added, It sounds like a lock that the Sun Belt is sticking with 11.

(05-02-2014 04:38 PM)Miami (Oh) Yeah ! Wrote: [ -> ]There is no benefit of adding UMass or Liberty to get to 12 if conference champion deregulation is going to pass.

And as the Ga Southern AD said, they are smart to not rush into adding either this year when something better will come along.

UMass and Liberty are going no where and will be equally eager to join the Sun Belt next year if the Sun Belt needs them. Nobody else in FBS wants either so Sun Belt is their only possible slim option as UMass twists in the wind and no other conference has interest in Liberty.

UMass is in a bad situation getting worse. They are a bad program already and how do you convince any decent recruits to sign onto a program that has no conference and no idea what its future is or if it can make it. It will snowball.

Stop saying Liberty dude. This will be strike three for them at this point. Not gonna happen. They arent on a back burner. They are in the garage in the back of the freezer.

The G5 sort of screwed themselves up when they crafted the plan to share the $86 million CFP dollars.

They could have just said every conference gets $12 million (ie. $60 million) and made conferences less likely to think in terms of dollars per team and actually created disincentive to even go to 12.

They could have taken the $60 million and just said we will divide it equally by the number of teams in the five leagues, or the number that were FBS when the current contract started or the number FBS for three years.

By doing it the way they did they stifled the leagues ability (and incentive) to be a laboratory for different membership models.

If we CUSA or the MAC had they gone to 14, I'd be sorely tempted to play a 6 game league schedule of only divisional games and then let schools cut their own deals for cross-division games. If Miami and Ball want to play a game that doesn't count in the standings, more power to them. If BGSU wants to play Toledo, EMU, CMU, and WMU every year and those schools agree, go for it.

The G5 could be a great lab to experiment with different ways of doing things but the CFP funding decision sort of causes everyone to feel like they should be at not less than 12 nor more than 12.

The thing is I think someone in G5 is going to crack the nut of doing "non-TV, TV" and take advantage of the new emerging technology and make some decent money setting the stage for the next grand realignment when the current economic model no longer works.