I think the present membership of the ACC is settled and I suspect they won't add more either.
(04-23-2013 01:42 PM)ark30inf Wrote: [ -> ]I think the present membership of the ACC is settled and I suspect they won't add more either.
Don't see the ACC expanding, but they have potential SEC/B1G/Big XII targets throughout their current membership, I'm surprised by this move.
(04-23-2013 03:41 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote: [ -> ] (04-23-2013 01:42 PM)ark30inf Wrote: [ -> ]I think the present membership of the ACC is settled and I suspect they won't add more either.
Don't see the ACC expanding, but they have potential SEC/B1G/Big XII targets throughout their current membership, I'm surprised by this move.
They are targets no more. The ACC is stable for quite a while now.
(04-23-2013 03:46 PM)ark30inf Wrote: [ -> ] (04-23-2013 03:41 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote: [ -> ] (04-23-2013 01:42 PM)ark30inf Wrote: [ -> ]I think the present membership of the ACC is settled and I suspect they won't add more either.
Don't see the ACC expanding, but they have potential SEC/B1G/Big XII targets throughout their current membership, I'm surprised by this move.
They are targets no more. The ACC is stable for quite a while now.
Yeah, I understand that, just surprised by it. I guess those with fears of being Big XII bound or left behind altogether managed to talk all the potential SEC/B1G targets into this. Just don't get the thinking of the rumored targets closing the door on the SEC/B1G for the next decade.
This should end realignment for the next few years. The Sun Belt will keep it's headliners after all. Realignment has ended much better for you guys than it could have. Congratulations.
The doors are never closed. Contracts are only drawn to be broken. If a school wants out, they will be able to buy their way out of this, some how.
If the Big 12, Big 10 (I won't use that goofy one with a g) or ACC want to expand, the AAC will be the target. That means the mid-majors will still feel ripples.
With the Big 12 at 10 teams, the Big 10 at 14, the SEC at 14 and the ACC at 14, something has to give.
I could only scenario I see where one major conference team moves to another is one where Missouri looks to the Big 10, since the SEC is the only major league without this type of deal. Maybe they would consider a move back to the Big 12, since I read somewhere that the Big 12 gives more money to its schools than any other, since they only have 10.
My guess is all craziness will break out near the end of the Big 12's GOR. Enjoy the next decade.
Contracts are made to be broken. Maryland would not be in court otherwise.
Ultimately, that opens the doors for Texas A&M and Mizzou to go back to the Big 12. Then you got the ACC and Big 10 stuck at 14. Then there are no ripples left to be felt in the Gof5. And this could happen, it'll just take a couple of years for it to unfold.
I think U of Texas may have been brought back to earth with the idea that UT needs them more then they need UT.
(04-23-2013 04:24 PM)Usajags Wrote: [ -> ]The doors are never closed. Contracts are only drawn to be broken. If a school wants out, they will be able to buy their way out of this, some how.
I see this as highly unlikely in the ACC now.
This period of realignment is starting to wind down whether some want it to or not.
IMO
What this does is buy the bottom 5 conferences some time to grow.
The next five years are critical for each bottom 5 conference as their play on the field and top25 rankings could reset the pecking order in best of the rest to worst of the rest.
This stops the giant potential shift that could have happend if they had lost UNC/Virgina to the Big 10, NC State and VT to the SEC and maybe FSU/Clemson to the Big 12.
If all that had happend, I was leaning towards believing that at that point we were going to see The AAC grab some top tier CUSA/Mac teams and go all the way to 16. IF Sixteen were becoming the pattern at that point we might have seen a Sun Belt/CUSA melting put into one conference. The Mac would perhaps pulled up Delaware,Youngstown State, and maybe a few others. This has certainly put a chain reaction on big hold for several FCS programs who might be developing a hope to move up.
However, The AAC only has 12 teams and isnt the Mac at 13? They could go to 14 or 16? I know the new money distribution plan makes going beyond 12 non-profitable for the Go5 if it is finalized and approved the way we have seen it proposed. But we could still see some movenment if that doesnt come down the way we think it will especially. If CUSA really has plans to goto 16, and they were to lose 2 current members to the AAC then we could see 4 teams leave the SBC! Also - nothing in the ACC agreement that keeps them from taking Cincy and UConn and if they do go to that 16 team model those two ads could mean more TV Revenue.
It isn't over. The atom bomb may be off the table but there could still be significant shifting to come in the near future. The Big12 is going to be the only AQConference without a Conf.Champ game if the NCAA denies their request to hold one with less than 12. And i dont see Miss or TXA&M going back to the Big12. The money would be deluted and might still not be as much as the future holds in the SEC. Will the big 12 go after BYU and Boise State? If that happens, what does the MWC do? I aint heard no fat lady singing yet.
A&M and Mizzou are not going back to Dodds.
I don't think Oklahoma and Texas want a Championship Game.
(04-23-2013 06:07 PM)The4thOption Wrote: [ -> ]This stops the giant potential shift that could have happend if they had lost UNC/Virgina to the Big 10, NC State and VT to the SEC and maybe FSU/Clemson to the Big 12.
If all that had happend, I was leaning towards believing that at that point we were going to see The AAC grab some top tier CUSA/Mac teams and go all the way to 16. IF Sixteen were becoming the pattern at that point we might have seen a Sun Belt/CUSA melting put into one conference. The Mac would perhaps pulled up Delaware,Youngstown State, and maybe a few others. This has certainly put a chain reaction on big hold for several FCS programs who might be developing a hope to move up.
However, The AAC only has 12 teams and isnt the Mac at 13? They could go to 14 or 16? I know the new money distribution plan makes going beyond 12 non-profitable for the Go5 if it is finalized and approved the way we have seen it proposed. But we could still see some movenment if that doesnt come down the way we think it will especially. If CUSA really has plans to goto 16, and they were to lose 2 current members to the AAC then we could see 4 teams leave the SBC! Also - nothing in the ACC agreement that keeps them from taking Cincy and UConn and if they do go to that 16 team model those two ads could mean more TV Revenue.
It isn't over. The atom bomb may be off the table but there could still be significant shifting to come in the near future. The Big12 is going to be the only AQConference without a Conf.Champ game if the NCAA denies their request to hold one with less than 12. And i dont see Miss or TXA&M going back to the Big12. The money would be deluted and might still not be as much as the future holds in the SEC. Will the big 12 go after BYU and Boise State? If that happens, what does the MWC do? I aint heard no fat lady singing yet.
As fun as all this speculation is for us... and I don't have a crystal ball either, but I'd say we are about done for a while. Been saying that since the article came about CUSA thinking about 16... I really think that was a "jump the shark" moment... that flew in the face of what was happening in the market. The diminishing payoffs for adding over 12, and I believe the tendency to want to evaluate and consolidate will take hold and CUSA stays at 14 and there are no clear choices that would add value versus revenue loss to conference members.
Yes, MAC is at 13, but they have been there a while and have been at no real hurry to even out the divisions. At best, there are two more spots to fill this round... our 12th, and MAC's 14th. Those slots have been increasing in value and were just made even more valuable now that the ACC has protected itself.
Even the Big 12 could have made a move... and they are frozen out of any big fish now... have to look at the AAC, and while it could happen, I just don't see anything attractive enough for them to justify creating another round of changes.
As fun as the drama has been, I'd say we will just see small aftershocks at this point.
(04-23-2013 06:09 PM)ark30inf Wrote: [ -> ]A&M and Mizzou are not going back to Dodds.
I don't think Oklahoma and Texas want a Championship Game.
Well the conference requested the right to have one with less than 12. So somebody over there is thinking about it. I wonder if they will change their mind if they see the other conferences have a Conf champion leap their program into the field of 4! Imagine a #1 ranked Alabama going into the SEC championship game against a 1 loss UGA or UF. The SEC East wins but Bama still makes the field of 4. Oregon gets the nod from the PAC and a one loss Ohio State goes infront a 1 loss Texas who has claimed the Big12 Championship without a conf championship game. The Big12 bettter hope that their champion is undefeated and that all or most of the other conference champions have one loss.
(04-23-2013 06:36 PM)GoAppsGo92 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-23-2013 06:07 PM)The4thOption Wrote: [ -> ]This stops the giant potential shift that could have happend if they had lost UNC/Virgina to the Big 10, NC State and VT to the SEC and maybe FSU/Clemson to the Big 12.
If all that had happend, I was leaning towards believing that at that point we were going to see The AAC grab some top tier CUSA/Mac teams and go all the way to 16. IF Sixteen were becoming the pattern at that point we might have seen a Sun Belt/CUSA melting put into one conference. The Mac would perhaps pulled up Delaware,Youngstown State, and maybe a few others. This has certainly put a chain reaction on big hold for several FCS programs who might be developing a hope to move up.
However, The AAC only has 12 teams and isnt the Mac at 13? They could go to 14 or 16? I know the new money distribution plan makes going beyond 12 non-profitable for the Go5 if it is finalized and approved the way we have seen it proposed. But we could still see some movenment if that doesnt come down the way we think it will especially. If CUSA really has plans to goto 16, and they were to lose 2 current members to the AAC then we could see 4 teams leave the SBC! Also - nothing in the ACC agreement that keeps them from taking Cincy and UConn and if they do go to that 16 team model those two ads could mean more TV Revenue.
It isn't over. The atom bomb may be off the table but there could still be significant shifting to come in the near future. The Big12 is going to be the only AQConference without a Conf.Champ game if the NCAA denies their request to hold one with less than 12. And i dont see Miss or TXA&M going back to the Big12. The money would be deluted and might still not be as much as the future holds in the SEC. Will the big 12 go after BYU and Boise State? If that happens, what does the MWC do? I aint heard no fat lady singing yet.
As fun as all this speculation is for us... and I don't have a crystal ball either, but I'd say we are about done for a while. Been saying that since the article came about CUSA thinking about 16... I really think that was a "jump the shark" moment... that flew in the face of what was happening in the market. The diminishing payoffs for adding over 12, and I believe the tendency to want to evaluate and consolidate will take hold and CUSA stays at 14 and there are no clear choices that would add value versus revenue loss to conference members.
Yes, MAC is at 13, but they have been there a while and have been at no real hurry to even out the divisions. At best, there are two more spots to fill this round... our 12th, and MAC's 14th. Those slots have been increasing in value and were just made even more valuable now that the ACC has protected itself.
Even the Big 12 could have made a move... and they are frozen out of any big fish now... have to look at the AAC, and while it could happen, I just don't see anything attractive enough for them to justify creating another round of changes.
As fun as the drama has been, I'd say we will just see small aftershocks at this point.
I agree with most of that.
Do you think that CUSA made those comments to the media to put out false hope and make programs like JMU hold off from joining the Sun Belt? Adding them doesnt give CUSA a new market, but it would give the Sun Belt a Virgina presence. In effect what they have done is keep us out of that market/state and might cause our conference to have to delay a Conf Championship game.
As for the AAC. I think the biggest concern right now is that the ACC might decide to take Cincy and UConn thus creating two more slots for them to fill.
(04-23-2013 06:52 PM)The4thOption Wrote: [ -> ] (04-23-2013 06:36 PM)GoAppsGo92 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-23-2013 06:07 PM)The4thOption Wrote: [ -> ]This stops the giant potential shift that could have happend if they had lost UNC/Virgina to the Big 10, NC State and VT to the SEC and maybe FSU/Clemson to the Big 12.
If all that had happend, I was leaning towards believing that at that point we were going to see The AAC grab some top tier CUSA/Mac teams and go all the way to 16. IF Sixteen were becoming the pattern at that point we might have seen a Sun Belt/CUSA melting put into one conference. The Mac would perhaps pulled up Delaware,Youngstown State, and maybe a few others. This has certainly put a chain reaction on big hold for several FCS programs who might be developing a hope to move up.
However, The AAC only has 12 teams and isnt the Mac at 13? They could go to 14 or 16? I know the new money distribution plan makes going beyond 12 non-profitable for the Go5 if it is finalized and approved the way we have seen it proposed. But we could still see some movenment if that doesnt come down the way we think it will especially. If CUSA really has plans to goto 16, and they were to lose 2 current members to the AAC then we could see 4 teams leave the SBC! Also - nothing in the ACC agreement that keeps them from taking Cincy and UConn and if they do go to that 16 team model those two ads could mean more TV Revenue.
It isn't over. The atom bomb may be off the table but there could still be significant shifting to come in the near future. The Big12 is going to be the only AQConference without a Conf.Champ game if the NCAA denies their request to hold one with less than 12. And i dont see Miss or TXA&M going back to the Big12. The money would be deluted and might still not be as much as the future holds in the SEC. Will the big 12 go after BYU and Boise State? If that happens, what does the MWC do? I aint heard no fat lady singing yet.
As fun as all this speculation is for us... and I don't have a crystal ball either, but I'd say we are about done for a while. Been saying that since the article came about CUSA thinking about 16... I really think that was a "jump the shark" moment... that flew in the face of what was happening in the market. The diminishing payoffs for adding over 12, and I believe the tendency to want to evaluate and consolidate will take hold and CUSA stays at 14 and there are no clear choices that would add value versus revenue loss to conference members.
Yes, MAC is at 13, but they have been there a while and have been at no real hurry to even out the divisions. At best, there are two more spots to fill this round... our 12th, and MAC's 14th. Those slots have been increasing in value and were just made even more valuable now that the ACC has protected itself.
Even the Big 12 could have made a move... and they are frozen out of any big fish now... have to look at the AAC, and while it could happen, I just don't see anything attractive enough for them to justify creating another round of changes.
As fun as the drama has been, I'd say we will just see small aftershocks at this point.
I agree with most of that.
Do you think that CUSA made those comments to the media to put out false hope and make programs like JMU hold off from joining the Sun Belt? Adding them doesnt give CUSA a new market, but it would give the Sun Belt a Virgina presence. In effect what they have done is keep us out of that market/state and might cause our conference to have to delay a Conf Championship game.
As for the AAC. I think the biggest concern right now is that the ACC might decide to take Cincy and UConn thus creating two more slots for them to fill.
Again, my opinion only, but I think CUSA's commissioner says what he says is purely for public consumption. Let's face it: CUSA has been decimated. Completely decimated. When the dust settles, they will be arguably, the biggest loser in this round. He says what he says to appear to be the aggressor after losing every single one of his headliners to the AAC. Truth of the matter is (and this is not speculation) the current CUSA membership is clearly divided on the 16 team model.
Could the AAC lose more members? Yes, but not likely. Cinci and Uconn will always be there, and there is no real reason for the ACC to take them at this point. AAC has said they are good at 12 and they have 12.
As for JMU: I think their issues are internal. They have to figure out if FBS football is something they really want to do. While the fans think CUSA is lining up to meet them, I think JMU officials know the score. MAC is the only option outside of SBC... and I think CUSA and MAC are in the same boat: They add ONLY if there is a tangible deliverable that would overcome the revenue distribution handicap. That means FBS adds if they do anything at all... I'm betting they let the dust settle as evaluate.
(04-23-2013 04:24 PM)BRtransplant Wrote: [ -> ]This should end realignment for the next few years. The Sun Belt will keep it's headliners after all. Realignment has ended much better for you guys than it could have. Congratulations.
CUSA is going to 16...your dreams will be shattered. Have fun watching the Cajuns and the Red Wolves stomp Tech into obscurity...or as we called it...your WAC days.