(03-20-2013 01:40 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2013 12:16 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2013 09:39 AM)SubGod22 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2013 06:49 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote: [ -> ]What is the A-10 going to do? It is losing 2 more teams to go along with Charlotte next season...are they bringing in George Mason? And who else?
And what about the Valley's replacement for Creighton? Are they still talking Denver?
Reports have been that Denver has already said no and is choosing to stay in the Summit.... Not sure I get that one. The other names we see the most are Belmont, Murray State, Valpo, Loyola, ORU and some still talk about the Dakota schools. From what I can tell, of those listed, Belmont, Murray and Valpo could be accepted. Belmont has questions as far as their lack of attendance goes. Valpo and Murray have OK attendance. I don't know much about budgets from any of them.
IF somehow Dayton were going to be left out, the MVC would try to convince them to join and they'd be option number one.
Pretty sure it was the MVC turning down Denver (or telling UD that they needed to add sports that they weren't in position to add) as opposed to the other way around.
If I had to guess, the MVC will end up adding Belmont for team #10 and then Loyola and Valpo if they go to 12.
The MVC ought to slow-play this rather than adding a few more schools right away.
The DePaul AD said today that the Big East might stay with 10 teams for at least a few years.
If Saint Louis isn't going to get a Big East invitation, then SLU ought to be at the top of the MVC's list.
Fr. Biondi will never allow SLU into the MVC
And another reason the MVC will move fairly quickly is because they know there are other programs within the conference that are looking at their options. Some may not be threats to move right away, but if something happens. I will grant you that the ISU is still a ways away from being ready to move up. UNI would consider it if they felt it didn't harm their basketball. I don't know what to think of MSU. Some of their fans say there are money issues and other fans say they're fine. WSU would bolt ASAP if an oppotunity presented itself and would have even if CU were still around. And there have been rumors, true or not, about Evansville looking for a conference they can be more competitive in.
(03-20-2013 01:49 PM)SubGod22 Wrote: [ -> ]And another reason the MVC will move fairly quickly is because they know there are other programs within the conference that are looking at their options. Some may not be threats to move right away, but if something happens. I will grant you that the ISU is still a ways away from being ready to move up. UNI would consider it if they felt it didn't harm their basketball. I don't know what to think of MSU. Some of their fans say there are money issues and other fans say they're fine. WSU would bolt ASAP if an opportunity presented itself and would have even if CU were still around. And there have been rumors, true or not, about Evansville looking for a conference they can be more competitive in.
Would UNI consider such a move if they were asked to revive baseball? I know they dropped it a few years ago but that could not have sat well with folks over there. Missouri State seems fine to me. I noticed you left Drake out. I guess they're just peachy in the Valley, huh?
(03-20-2013 01:28 PM)SubGod22 Wrote: [ -> ]If we go to 12, we will not be adding 3 privates. There's already questions about if the privates can keep up (Drake, Evansville). Some wonder the same about Belmont. I think Valpo could be a decent pick, but Loyola would make zero sense. Especially if they choose to add 2 privates as part of getting to 12. There would be at least one public school added if that were to happen. Murray State, Wright State and maybe Milwaukee would be looked into. I wouldn't mind seeing Arlington get a look as there's some potential there. All three public schools are much better than adding Loyola.
And it's been my understanding that Denver was on the top of the list. Not sure why we'd tell them no and then turn around and consider someone like Loyola. Although, with Elgin running things, maybe that does make sense.
If the Big East wants Elgin to be their commish, I'll help him pack.
I'd bank on at least one Chicago school getting into the MVC if there is a 3-school expansion. If it's not Loyola, it might be UIC instead. Living in Chicago, there *should* be a much better presence for the league here considering how many alums live in the area and I think the people in the MVC feel the same way. The main issue is that there simply isn't an immediate local school that's a vessel to bring all of those ISU/Bradley/SIU/Drake fans in.
Look - there's no real magic pill where a team is able to combine the TV market, fan base and on-the-court ability of Creighton. At best, the viable candidates provide maybe 2 of those 3 factors (or maybe only 1 of those 3 factors in most cases). From a 10,000-foot view, assuming that you're not getting a RPI worldbeater, the MVC's greatest weakness is that its markets are Charles Barkley turrible. That's why the A-10, if push comes to shove, would have the ability to poach the MVC as opposed to other way around (even if Dayton gets left behind by the Big East) despite the MVC schools generally having better fan attendance. It also isn't an accident that the USA Today report on MVC expansion listed 3 large market private schools as targets (Denver, Belmont and Loyola). This isn't to say that Loyola by itself can deliver Chicago or Belmont on its own can deliver Nashville, but from what I see, a Murray State-type doesn't really add value to the MVC where it really needs it from an off-the-court perspective. The gravitational pull of going eastward toward the bigger population bases is simply greater than heading westward (or even worse, northward to the Dakotas), especially for a league like the MVC. That goes for both athletics and the academically-minded university presidents.
The A-10 is sort of in the opposite position, where it has much better TV markets than the MVC but, outside of VCU and a couple of others, the fan support top-to-bottom fan support isn't as strong. That's why a Siena-type (solid fan base in a "meh" market) would be more on the radar for them than a Detroit-type that's actually a pretty good institutional fit in a major market but has very low fan support.
MVC's tv deal is mainly regional through FSN Midwest and Comcast Chicago. If they expand, they would want to add another FSN regional with it. XDSU's would bring FSN North. Denver would have brought Root Sports.
Going east is basically the only option as there's a larger jump in distance going any other direction. And I think you see teams like Belmont and Denver mentioned not just because of market, but product. The MVC would be insanely stupid to add Loyola just because they're in Chicago. They're a horrible program and simply don't matter in Chicago anyway. The MVCs best bet is to add programs with solid basketball and do what they do. I'm all for expanding the footprint to have the possibility of reaching more TVs. Exposure matters. Adding a 4th IL school, in Chicago or not, doesn't make any sense. Especially when that addition would immediately go to the very bottom of the conference when it comes to performance.
The MVC needs to add teams that can finish in the upper half of the conference. That is why you see Belmont and Denver mentioned as they have that potential. Market is secondary. That's also why you see talk of Valpo and Murray State. Good basketball schools that could keep the Valley with a respectable product. Loyola does none of that. It would only add yet another weak sister in a state that already has three Valley teams.
I'm not sure who the A10 could pull from the Valley at this point. They've lost all of their midwestern appeal. Increased travel and less TV money isn't going to convince someone to jump. Those closest to the A10 schools are those with the most financial issues. Perhaps Bradley could be persuaded, but I'm not entirely sure. Once SLU/Dayton leave for the BE, the A10 will most likely be a lesser conference than the MVC. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.
SubGod22 - I understand what you're saying, but there *has* been talk about Loyola. This isn't a hypothetical. I have no personal skin in the game - to the extent that I have any emotional attachment at all, it's for UIC since my parents met and went to school there. Gorman exposure standpoint, saying that there's a 4th Illinois team is very misleading because Chicago is effectively a separate state. Illinois and Notre Dame can get away with being outside of the immediate Chicago area to deliver that market, but it doesn't work for ISU, Bradley or SIU. Downstate Illinois is a different world than Chicagoland. The Chicago area alone is worth more than any other new state that the MVC could conceivably bring in (and if it's not for TV, it's *definitely* for recruiting). I'm not saying that Loyola should be taken over Belmont (you can't pass up on a team in a good market hat has actually performed well), but I stand with what I'm saying that I'd be surprised of there isn't a Chicago school (more likely Loyola) if the MVC goes to 12. The eastern schools of that league badly want to get into that market.
So the A10 next year minus Xavier, Butler*, Temple*, and Charlotte:
St. Louis*
VCU*
LaSalle*
UMass
Dayton
St. Joe's
Rhode Island
George Washington
St. Bonaventure
Duquesne
Fordham
*Tourney teams
I think the A10 has to go for George Mason to get back to 12. If they lose two more, they can actually be the A10, or look to Northeastern and Siena for 12. I think every school there knows UMass would split to Conference-TBA in an instant so Northeastern is a logical replacement to have on-hand.
(03-20-2013 01:40 PM)Wedge Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2013 12:16 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2013 09:39 AM)SubGod22 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-20-2013 06:49 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote: [ -> ]What is the A-10 going to do? It is losing 2 more teams to go along with Charlotte next season...are they bringing in George Mason? And who else?
And what about the Valley's replacement for Creighton? Are they still talking Denver?
Reports have been that Denver has already said no and is choosing to stay in the Summit.... Not sure I get that one. The other names we see the most are Belmont, Murray State, Valpo, Loyola, ORU and some still talk about the Dakota schools. From what I can tell, of those listed, Belmont, Murray and Valpo could be accepted. Belmont has questions as far as their lack of attendance goes. Valpo and Murray have OK attendance. I don't know much about budgets from any of them.
IF somehow Dayton were going to be left out, the MVC would try to convince them to join and they'd be option number one.
Pretty sure it was the MVC turning down Denver (or telling UD that they needed to add sports that they weren't in position to add) as opposed to the other way around.
If I had to guess, the MVC will end up adding Belmont for team #10 and then Loyola and Valpo if they go to 12.
The MVC ought to slow-play this rather than adding a few more schools right away.
The DePaul AD said today that the Big East might stay with 10 teams for at least a few years.
If Saint Louis isn't going to get a Big East invitation, then SLU ought to be at the top of the MVC's list.
This is interesting because a few years could be anywhere from 3-5. Dayton and St. Louis are stuck in the A10 for the time being.
With this the case, the A10 would be sitting at 12 schools. They may not think its necessary to expand at all figuring that SLU and VCU will be strong enough to carry the league to 3 NCAA bids a year. It might even help schools like UMass and George Washington dance again.
There is no reason for SLU and Dayton to even bother with the MVC if they believe in 3-5 years time they'll be members of the BE. The MVC will have to settle for Belmont.
(03-20-2013 09:23 PM)esayem Wrote: [ -> ]So the A10 next year minus Xavier, Butler*, Temple*, and Charlotte:
St. Louis*
VCU*
LaSalle*
UMass
Dayton
St. Joe's
Rhode Island
George Washington
St. Bonaventure
Duquesne
Fordham
*Tourney teams
I think the A10 has to go for George Mason to get back to 12. If they lose two more, they can actually be the A10, or look to Northeastern and Siena for 12. I think every school there knows UMass would split to Conference-TBA in an instant so Northeastern is a logical replacement to have on-hand.
You are forgetting Richmond. The A10 will be at 12 schools.
Does George Mason help them at this point? I don't know the answer to that.
(03-20-2013 08:16 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote: [ -> ]SubGod22 - I understand what you're saying, but there *has* been talk about Loyola. This isn't a hypothetical. I have no personal skin in the game - to the extent that I have any emotional attachment at all, it's for UIC since my parents met and went to school there. Gorman exposure standpoint, saying that there's a 4th Illinois team is very misleading because Chicago is effectively a separate state. Illinois and Notre Dame can get away with being outside of the immediate Chicago area to deliver that market, but it doesn't work for ISU, Bradley or SIU. Downstate Illinois is a different world than Chicagoland. The Chicago area alone is worth more than any other new state that the MVC could conceivably bring in (and if it's not for TV, it's *definitely* for recruiting). I'm not saying that Loyola should be taken over Belmont (you can't pass up on a team in a good market hat has actually performed well), but I stand with what I'm saying that I'd be surprised of there isn't a Chicago school (more likely Loyola) if the MVC goes to 12. The eastern schools of that league badly want to get into that market.
Between Loyola and UIC, which one can/attracts the Chicago media the best?
All things being equal I think Loyola would get the most attention. If things aren't equal and one of the teams starts a winning tradition then that school gets the attention.
(03-21-2013 07:53 AM)Brooks Saddle Wrote: [ -> ]All things being equal I think Loyola would get the most attention. If things aren't equal and one of the teams starts a winning tradition then that school gets the attention.
I think that's right. Chicago is a bandwagon town when it comes to college sports, so neither Loyola and UIC really are getting much attention, but Loyola has a bit more history. One thing to note is that even though Loyola is private, it's not a small school (10,000 undergrads compared to 11,000 for public Wichita State). UIC generally has better facilities (not just for basketball, but for sports like baseball where they're building a brand new baseball field with money from Curtis Granderson and Major League Baseball).
I still don't think it would increase exposure much. We're already on TV in Chicago. If expansion/replacement is trying to increase TVs, the best bet is to go outside of the current footprint. Yes, Loyola has been mentioned and it's not something you made up, but the Dakotas have been mentioned and few think there's a chance in hell they'd be added. At one point, the AD for Bradley I believe, said there were 26 schools in the area they'd look into. I'm sure he was exaggerating, but the point is they're giving at least initial looks to just about everybody. I even seen one reference somewhere to UMKC and UNO. Neither has a chance of hell of getting in either.
And I'll be honest, with Elgin at the head of things, I'm leary or what direction they'll go. I hope the Presidents are smart about this, but there are so many poorer schools involved that I sometimes worry that they'll make a decision based solely on their budget and not on what's best for the conference long-term. I want to see WSU get out, but at the same time, I don't want to see the MVC fall in with all of the also rans.
Have I mentioned that Elgin is an idiot yet?
(03-21-2013 09:09 AM)SubGod22 Wrote: [ -> ]I still don't think it would increase exposure much. We're already on TV in Chicago. If expansion/replacement is trying to increase TVs, the best bet is to go outside of the current footprint. Yes, Loyola has been mentioned and it's not something you made up, but the Dakotas have been mentioned and few think there's a chance in hell they'd be added. At one point, the AD for Bradley I believe, said there were 26 schools in the area they'd look into. I'm sure he was exaggerating, but the point is they're giving at least initial looks to just about everybody. I even seen one reference somewhere to UMKC and UNO. Neither has a chance of hell of getting in either.
And I'll be honest, with Elgin at the head of things, I'm leary or what direction they'll go. I hope the Presidents are smart about this, but there are so many poorer schools involved that I sometimes worry that they'll make a decision based solely on their budget and not on what's best for the conference long-term. I want to see WSU get out, but at the same time, I don't want to see the MVC fall in with all of the also rans.
Have I mentioned that Elgin is an idiot yet?
There are some MVC games on TV in Chicago, but the exposure (both TV and general media coverage) really ought to be much better. This is the top home for alums for 2 very large MVC schools (ISU and SIU) and Bradley. I wouldn't be surprised if it's the top home (or maybe #2) for Drake and UNI grads, as well. So, there are a lot of potential network effects there (compared to other markets where there wouldn't be any preexisting fan bases from other MVC schools). Like I've said, a school like Loyola doesn't make sense at 10 for the MVC, but makes a lot of sense at 12.