Arguably, our newest members' football success in their first year in C-USA will be measured by how well they do against the 8 "old" members who will still be with us in the 2013 season. (ECU, Marshall, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, USM, and UTEP.)
There are 32 scheduled games between the newbies and the oldtimers (plus, what the heck, let's add in ODU vs. ECU for a little preview game and make it 33-0.)
So, two questions:
1. What will be the combined won/loss record using OLD/NEW with this 33 game slate? 33-0 would be a complete domination by the Old over the New (all games won by the "oldies"), and 0-33 would be a freaking miracle (imo) for the "newbies" and a washout for the olds..
2. What would you consider as a respectable showing by the "newbies"
using the same formula of OLD/NEW?
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Since I asked the question:
1. 26 - 7. I think our new brothers are going to find C-USA a tough "road to hoe" in year one. Tulsa and Rice are going to be very good in the West, UTEP and Tulane will be improved. In the East, ECU and Marshall will have very good teams and USM will bounce back nicely. UAB is also much improved.
2. If the new group wins 33% of their games against the more established CUSA teams, it will surprise me, but be respectable in year one. So I say 22-11.
22 - 11 Old Schools On top
CFN says Louisiana Tech 2-3, North Texas 0-5, UTSA 0-6, Florida Atlantic 0-6, Florida International 1-4, Middle Tennessee 0-5, and Old Dominion 0-1. Composite record 3-30.
http://cfn.scout.com/2/1267190.html
I find it hard to believe the newbies only get 3 wins, but it is hard to see how they get to 10 wins unless USM has another miserable year or UTEP collapses under the new head coach.
I think that La. Tech & FAU will come right in and have early success, my "dark horses" are, MTSU, UTSA & North Texas. Charlotte and ODU are going to be in acclimation mode for a couple of seasons before they come of age.
(02-22-2013 07:32 PM)ESE84 Wrote: [ -> ]CFN says Louisiana Tech 2-3, North Texas 0-5, UTSA 0-6, Florida Atlantic 0-6, Florida International 1-4, Middle Tennessee 0-5, and Old Dominion 0-1. Composite record 3-30.
http://cfn.scout.com/2/1267190.html
I find it hard to believe the newbies only get 3 wins, but it is hard to see how they get to 10 wins unless USM has another miserable year or UTEP collapses under the new head coach.
yeah, I agree with you. I can't see USM going anything less than 6-6 this year, and UTEP has some talent back from what I see.
MTSU will be better than 0-5, and LaTech wouldn't surprise me if they go 3-2 or even 4-1. The others will likely win a few in there. Ten wins isn't entirely out of the question.
UNT won't win a conference game.
I have no idea what the newbies record will be. What I can tell you is each one of them will realize CUSA gets bigger, faster, and harder hitting recruits. Even LA Tech will have to learn that.
MTSU was 8-4 last year, and return a ton of starters, and brought in one of our best recruiting classes in recent memory. We also destroyed a middle of the pack Memphis team last year. NO WAY we go 0-5. you can take that to the bank. I don't know who we will beat (we play USM, ECU, Marshall, UTEP, and UAB) but I think we win atleast 2-3 of those games... prepare yourselves.
(02-22-2013 08:52 PM)HerdZoned Wrote: [ -> ]I have no idea what the newbies record will be. What I can tell you is each one of them will realize CUSA gets bigger, faster, and harder hitting recruits. Even LA Tech will have to learn that.
yes because all those seasons in the WAC playing against Boise didn't prepare Tech for CUSA
(02-22-2013 09:22 PM)surlycanon Wrote: [ -> ]MTSU was 8-4 last year, and return a ton of starters, and brought in one of our best recruiting classes in recent memory. We also destroyed a middle of the pack Memphis team last year. NO WAY we go 0-5. you can take that to the bank. I don't know who we will beat (we play USM, ECU, Marshall, UTEP, and UAB) but I think we win atleast 2-3 of those games... prepare yourselves.
One of those 4 losses was to the mighty Cowboys of McNeese State. I don't trust MTSUs defensive side. This is the most telling between CUSA recruits and Sun Belt recruits
Below is what I posted in a thread on the ODU page:
"The 2013 football schedule as it stands right now is 11 games, with discussions still ongoing to add Syracuse. For this discussion, let's go ahead and add Syracuse to make a 12-game schedule.
For a while now, I have been hearing people say things like, "we can't expect to win like we are used to winning since we are going to C-USA. In our first transition year, I don't see a big let down in our won-loss record from our previous years. Here's the schedule:
2013 ODU Football Schedule
Aug. 31, at East Carolina
Sept. 7, at Maryland
Sept. 14, Howard
Sept. 21, The Citadel
Sept. 28, Albany
Oct. 5, Liberty
Oct. 12, open date or at North Carolina
Oct. 19, open date
Oct. 26, at Norfolk State, 1 p.m.
Nov. 2, Rhode Island
Nov, 9, at Idaho
Nov. 16, UNC Charlotte
Nov. 23, at North Carolina or open date
I see us winning all of the FCS home games (Howard, The Citidel, Albany, Liberty, and Rhode Island). That's five wins.
We have two away games that we should win (first year UNC Charlotte and FCS Norfolk State). Now we are up to seven wins.
I think we should win an away game against FBS Idaho. That's eight wins.
I think we will have at least one upset win against our other four FBS opponents (away games against East Carolina, Maryland, North Carolina and Syracuse). Pick one. My first impulse is Maryland, but if not the Terps, there is an upset win in there somewhere. That's nine wins out of 12 games."
The Syracuse game is still not finalized and may not happen. As this is ODU's first year in transition from FCS to FBS, we are still playing a home schedule of FCS teams, so that does soften things for us this year.
If you haven't heard the name Taylor Heinicke, start getting used to it. He is the ODU quarterback and as a sophomore last year completed 69.7% of his passes for more than 5,000 yards and won the Walter Payton award as the outstanding player in the FCS. ODU finished the year ranked No. 6 in the FCS. Though it was not as good as the teams in this year's C-USA, ODU had a pretty solid recruiting year, with good recruits at the offensive skill positions and a solid recruiting year on the defensive side of the ball, including a number of JUCO transfers who will play immediately.
The FBS side of the schedule will in fact be tough, including ECU, but I do believe there is a reasonable opportunity to steal a win from Maryland, and would not be suprised if we do. Over the first four years of playing football, we have won eight to ten games every year with increasing levels of competition each year.
So hold on to your hats C-USA, and don't take us too lightly. The Monarchs are headed your way.
Newbies will win 13 of the 33 games.
(02-22-2013 09:33 PM)techdawg88 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-22-2013 08:52 PM)HerdZoned Wrote: [ -> ]I have no idea what the newbies record will be. What I can tell you is each one of them will realize CUSA gets bigger, faster, and harder hitting recruits. Even LA Tech will have to learn that.
yes because all those seasons in the WAC playing against Boise didn't prepare Tech for CUSA
Can't leave out some of the good Nevada, Hawaii, and Fresno State teams either
I don't think these people know anything about WAC football. If they did they would not be making these comments. I don't know what kind of year we will have next year, but I don't see we have moved up in the level of competition. It was damn hard to beat Boise, Fresno, Hawaii and Nevada, just like it will be hard to beat Tulsa and USM. How many times were we playing against a ranked WAC team? It seemed like a lot to me.
(02-22-2013 09:33 PM)techdawg88 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-22-2013 08:52 PM)HerdZoned Wrote: [ -> ]I have no idea what the newbies record will be. What I can tell you is each one of them will realize CUSA gets bigger, faster, and harder hitting recruits. Even LA Tech will have to learn that.
yes because all those seasons in the WAC playing against Boise didn't prepare Tech for CUSA
not to mention La. Tech has played USM and one of those games was in the Rock in 2011 which was extremely close, although you have to throw in the extremely bad weather in that game. However, in 2010 La. Tech played USM and lost in a very close game (2 points I think it was). Don't sell La. Tech short folks.
(02-22-2013 11:40 PM)SgtGoldenEagle Wrote: [ -> ] (02-22-2013 09:33 PM)techdawg88 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-22-2013 08:52 PM)HerdZoned Wrote: [ -> ]I have no idea what the newbies record will be. What I can tell you is each one of them will realize CUSA gets bigger, faster, and harder hitting recruits. Even LA Tech will have to learn that.
yes because all those seasons in the WAC playing against Boise didn't prepare Tech for CUSA
not to mention La. Tech has played USM and one of those games was in the Rock in 2011 which was extremely close, although you have to throw in the extremely bad weather in that game. However, in 2010 La. Tech played USM and lost in a very close game (2 points I think it was). Don't sell La. Tech short folks.
didn't both games end up in bad weather?
I still get nightmares about Tech playing Colin Kaepernick and Kellen Moore
(02-22-2013 10:06 PM)HerdZoned Wrote: [ -> ] (02-22-2013 09:22 PM)surlycanon Wrote: [ -> ]MTSU was 8-4 last year, and return a ton of starters, and brought in one of our best recruiting classes in recent memory. We also destroyed a middle of the pack Memphis team last year. NO WAY we go 0-5. you can take that to the bank. I don't know who we will beat (we play USM, ECU, Marshall, UTEP, and UAB) but I think we win atleast 2-3 of those games... prepare yourselves.
One of those 4 losses was to the mighty Cowboys of McNeese State. I don't trust MTSUs defensive side. This is the most telling between CUSA recruits and Sun Belt recruits
Ask any Blue Raider fan and they will tell you we are hot garbage in home openers. Lost to some pretty bad teams in home openers. Hoping to end that next year against Western Carolina. Discount us if you want, but we will NOT go 0 fer.
LA. Tech won't need any time to acclimate, they already play a hard nosed style of football. They remind me a lot of USM, at least the last couple years. Whether they can keep that up now that they've lost half their team is the question.