It seems that it is a forgone conclusion that if the B1G takes 2 from the ACC, the SEC, then Big 12 would follow. That very well could happen, but what if the ACC can regroup with the other 12 (with Louisville)? If the ACC television contract stayed the same, the team payout would be $20 million per team. Figure in ND's membership and that would increase a little. Thoughts?
Nope. The ACC is doomed. DOOOOMED, I tell ye!
The B1G can want 2 from the ACC, but they will not get them.
(02-01-2013 01:37 PM)Villecard Wrote: [ -> ]It seems that it is a forgone conclusion that if the B1G takes 2 from the ACC, the SEC, then Big 12 would follow. That very well could happen, but what if the ACC can regroup with the other 12 (with Louisville)? If the ACC television contract stayed the same, the team payout would be $20 million per team. Figure in ND's membership and that would increase a little. Thoughts?
If UVA leaves then that makes VT restless. If GT leaves then Clemson and FSU start to get restless. I don't see any way that you can lose only those two. The ACC will probably survive but losing two more would mean losing many more in my opinion.
To answer your real question... Anything is possible, but like A&M used the LHN as a convenient excuse to bail after they knew Neb and Col could get out, I would be shocked if the defections of UVA and GT would not be used in a similar manner
Thought you were asking something else...
Define survive? The ACC will never "die" if that is what you are asking. If something like that came to pass the issue would be not whether it is still there, but what is the value left within the name. Due to how the current economics within the sport are, the BE is the only one that really would need to be worried that they could "die" because of a massive back-fill to the ACC to keep (at least a portion) of the ACC TV deal.
USF and UCF are "tailor made" market replacements for Miami and FSU. UConn, Cinci and Temple could help cover the loss of markets in Georgia, Virginian and Maryland. Memphis seems like a logical fit as well to help repopulate the ACC. Where it gets strange is the adds of UH, SMU, Tulane, and ECU. Is it sad to say that the best case scenario for them is to see a massive ACC raid with 10 teams leave. Then you would see a backfill of 8 BE/CUSA teams and the ACC would live on.
I don't know how the surviving members would feel about it, but UCF, USF, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, UConn, Cinci, Temple, Boston College, Wake Forest, Memphis and ? is a almost a re-launch of the BE.
The premise is if Virginia and Georgia Tech went to the Big 10 and the question is could the ACC survive.
I'm still not sold that this will happen, but if it did, even though theoretically they could survive, the answer is I doubt they would, at least not as any form of the ACC we know today.
Where would they find the academic core replacements that give the ACC their identity. Rice, S.M.U., Tulane and Tulsa could all become options, but they are not ACC in culture. I believe that once the climate out of which your organization was born and thrived is severely altered the likelihood of survival is nil.
The reason is simple. Those ingredients that once formed your bond are gone. Self interest will reign, some panic will ensue among the institutions that might find themselves on a bubble of entry elsewhere and the remaining core schools will not panic because they know they are in when and if they move. Those core schools will soon find themselves without the things they once loved and they will only hold out long enough to receive the concessions they want and the income they desire when they do move. They will be a winner in regards to income, but a loser in regards to everything they once loved about their former home.
I do wonder if the Big 10 takes 2 more and the SEC stays pat, if the Big 12 would be able to wrestle 2 ACC teams away. The ACC would still be 12 teams and not really being in that much different shape than it is now.
(02-01-2013 02:13 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote: [ -> ]I do wonder if the Big 10 takes 2 more and the SEC stays pat, if the Big 12 would be able to wrestle 2 ACC teams away. The ACC would still be 12 teams and not really being in that much different shape than it is now.
I doubt the SEC would stand pat in regards to a Big 10 move to 16 especially with Virginia Tech sitting out there without their state rival to hold them back. But if the SEC thought that by waiting they could take both North Carolina and Duke (this is not what I want, but apparently Slive does) then that lag time might well provide the ACC time to regroup take Cincinnati and Connecticut and return to some stability.
(02-01-2013 02:13 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote: [ -> ]I do wonder if the Big 10 takes 2 more and the SEC stays pat, if the Big 12 would be able to wrestle 2 ACC teams away. The ACC would still be 12 teams and not really being in that much different shape than it is now.
That would depend on the tv deal and who gets jittery.
(02-01-2013 02:06 PM)laxtonto Wrote: [ -> ]Define survive? The ACC will never "die" if that is what you are asking. If something like that came to pass the issue would be not whether it is still there, but what is the value left within the name. Due to how the current economics within the sport are, the BE is the only one that really would need to be worried that they could "die" because of a massive back-fill to the ACC to keep (at least a portion) of the ACC TV deal.
USF and UCF are "tailor made" market replacements for Miami and FSU. UConn, Cinci and Temple could help cover the loss of markets in Georgia, Virginian and Maryland. Memphis seems like a logical fit as well to help repopulate the ACC. Where it gets strange is the adds of UH, SMU, Tulane, and ECU. Is it sad to say that the best case scenario for them is to see a massive ACC raid with 10 teams leave. Then you would see a backfill of 8 BE/CUSA teams and the ACC would live on.
I don't know how the surviving members would feel about it, but UCF, USF, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, UConn, Cinci, Temple, Boston College, Wake Forest, Memphis and ? is a almost a re-launch of the BE.
Add S Miss, ECU, Houston, Tulsa, and SMU--and you have a very solid 16 team conference. Big footprint, solid names, lots of media markets and TV's representated.
Probably not a power conference--but a clear seperation between this version of the ACC and the current non-AQ field. Whoever comes out of that group as a football and basketball champ will be a formidible representative for the conference.
I am not sure what the SEC is thinking. I have a feeling that the add of Missouri and their lukewarm acceptance in the league is forcing a bit of rethinking on who they bring in.
The SEC's problem is balancing the divisions and where you add schools will have a big influence. If the schools coming in are both going to be in the east, having a pre-made rivalry will be necessary to match up with the rest of that division. Duke-UNC makes the most sense, but I am not sure that UNC will move as the 4th school out of the ACC and would require more pressure to finally give up on their tobacco road kingdom.
Yes. The doomsayers are all assuming everything happens at once, but that seems unlikely IMHO. For argument's sake, say the B1G did take UVA and GT, they would be replaced in short order by UConn and Cincy. Then if the XII swooped in and took FSU & Miami, those two would be replaced by UCF and USF, also in short order. Basically, unless 10 schools leave at once, the ACC isn't going anywhere.
I'd go with if UVA leaves the acc is toast. Of course, they might "survive" as a best of the rest league with the big east leftovers but they are MWC status. My guess would be the sec would jump to 16 with 2 acc school's and the big 12 jumps to 14-16 with acc school's + not to mention the big 10 will take at least one more acc if not more post getting uva.
(02-01-2013 02:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: [ -> ] (02-01-2013 02:06 PM)laxtonto Wrote: [ -> ]Define survive? The ACC will never "die" if that is what you are asking. If something like that came to pass the issue would be not whether it is still there, but what is the value left within the name. Due to how the current economics within the sport are, the BE is the only one that really would need to be worried that they could "die" because of a massive back-fill to the ACC to keep (at least a portion) of the ACC TV deal.
USF and UCF are "tailor made" market replacements for Miami and FSU. UConn, Cinci and Temple could help cover the loss of markets in Georgia, Virginian and Maryland. Memphis seems like a logical fit as well to help repopulate the ACC. Where it gets strange is the adds of UH, SMU, Tulane, and ECU. Is it sad to say that the best case scenario for them is to see a massive ACC raid with 10 teams leave. Then you would see a backfill of 8 BE/CUSA teams and the ACC would live on.
I don't know how the surviving members would feel about it, but UCF, USF, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, UConn, Cinci, Temple, Boston College, Wake Forest, Memphis and ? is a almost a re-launch of the BE.
Add S Miss, ECU, Houston, Tulsa, and SMU--and you have a very solid 16 team conference. Big footprint, solid names, lots of media markets and TV's representated.
Probably not a power conference--but a clear seperation between this version of the ACC and the current non-AQ field. Whoever comes out of that group as a football and basketball champ will be a formidible representative for the conference.
Why go to 16 when 12 will most likely maximize your revenues for the ACC. Not sure the push from SMU and UH markets would out weigh the drag of Tulsa, S Miss and ECU and adding 3 geographic outliers essentially makes the west division an airport league. 12 might be optimal for this "version" of a hypothetical ACC and could essentially force a restructuring among the non-AQ ranks.
I know from a UH standpoint the ACC would be a great move, but not sure that the ACC gets anything out of it because what it would take to get there.
If the ACC were to lose two. I don't think they would replace them. The exception might be if they lost both Miami and FSU. I think UCF and USF would be added. But if they lost FSU and Miami, they'd lose too many BCS points to be in the "top 5" anymore so you'd see everyone trying to leave.
Survive? Yes. But it would likely be in a much inferior state. Much like the Big East has technically survived. This despite the fact that 8 out of 9 long-time Big east members are leaving/left. Along with all 4 of the football oriented additions (Miami, VT, WV, Rutgers), plus Notre Dame, and Miami's replacement (Louisville) also leaving.
ACC has a 12 year TV bowl revenue sharing deal starting 2014 and the Orange Bowl.
If they lose teams they can bring in UC and UConn, or USF or another.
(02-01-2013 02:22 PM)CommuterBob Wrote: [ -> ]Yes. The doomsayers are all assuming everything happens at once, but that seems unlikely IMHO. For argument's sake, say the B1G did take UVA and GT, they would be replaced in short order by UConn and Cincy. Then if the XII swooped in and took FSU & Miami, those two would be replaced by UCF and USF, also in short order. Basically, unless 10 schools leave at once, the ACC isn't going anywhere.
I tend to agree with you. I would add that in the above events the SEC would jump on Va. Tech and one other school...who knows maybe North Carolina or West Virginia.
However I can not get out of my mind Delaney's comment about adding a midwestern school....i. e. Missouri
I'm going to guess the B1G throws a curve.
The B1G hasn't shown a tendency, from prior picks, to want to directly destabilize any conference yet. Then again, the pickens' are gettin' slimmer, as they say.