12-22-2012, 11:25 AM
One thing that hasn't been discussed about with this new league is who it will be competing with. While there is no direct correlation to an opposing leagues success and the money this league will get, it doesn't take much thought to see that this league is in a better shape if it can create a niche as the clear best basketball conference outside of the BCS football conferences.
I think the competitors come down to a few leagues:
Similar profile (basketball, no football):
A-10
MVC
Similar quality basketball teams:
New Big East (non C7)
MWC
WCC (Gonzaga/St. Mary's)
Now, this league cannot do much to weaken the nBE, the MWC, or WAC (short of adding Gonzaga and Saint Mary's), but it can definitely destroy the A-10 and the MVC. Those leagues have good teams at the top, but have a significant number of bottom feeders that do not have the investment necessary to rise up and replace the top if they left.
The schools that could be added to destroy the competition are:
A-10: Butler, Xavier, VCU, Saint Louis, Dayton
MVC: Creighton, Wichita State
Therefore, taking those schools does two things: Strengthens the Catholic 7, and eliminates the competition (ensuring a greater portion of the market for this conference).
Alternatively, this conference can seek out UConn, Cincinnati, Temple, and Memphis for basketball only, eliminating any chance that the nBE could challenge this conference in basketball. I doubt the conference would go this route for stability reasons, but it does have basketball merit.
For reference purposes, the conferences would be ranked as such by Sagarin after the split:
2. MWC
7. nBE
8. C7
9. A-10
10. MVC
11. WCC
And the conferences would look like the following with the addition of those 7 schools previously listed:
2. MWC
4. C7
8. nBE
11. A-10
12. MVC
That actually understates the drop, because those conferences lost an average of 3 Sagarin points, the difference between the B1G and the Pac-12 this year. However, there are noticeable drop-offs after the Pac-12 and after the MVC, so the drop isn't see as much in the rankings.
It seems that this is something that hasn't been brought up much, but I think it will have some effect on TV deals and NCAA bids going forward. Adding 5-7 teams from the A-10 and MVC solidifies the gap between the C7 and those conferences, and jumps it to considerably ahead of the nBE. I'm assuming the MWC is a statistical outlier, because this is probably the best year in the conference in decades; normally the C7 would be ranked second or third.
How much impact do you think this will have?
I think the competitors come down to a few leagues:
Similar profile (basketball, no football):
A-10
MVC
Similar quality basketball teams:
New Big East (non C7)
MWC
WCC (Gonzaga/St. Mary's)
Now, this league cannot do much to weaken the nBE, the MWC, or WAC (short of adding Gonzaga and Saint Mary's), but it can definitely destroy the A-10 and the MVC. Those leagues have good teams at the top, but have a significant number of bottom feeders that do not have the investment necessary to rise up and replace the top if they left.
The schools that could be added to destroy the competition are:
A-10: Butler, Xavier, VCU, Saint Louis, Dayton
MVC: Creighton, Wichita State
Therefore, taking those schools does two things: Strengthens the Catholic 7, and eliminates the competition (ensuring a greater portion of the market for this conference).
Alternatively, this conference can seek out UConn, Cincinnati, Temple, and Memphis for basketball only, eliminating any chance that the nBE could challenge this conference in basketball. I doubt the conference would go this route for stability reasons, but it does have basketball merit.
For reference purposes, the conferences would be ranked as such by Sagarin after the split:
2. MWC
7. nBE
8. C7
9. A-10
10. MVC
11. WCC
And the conferences would look like the following with the addition of those 7 schools previously listed:
2. MWC
4. C7
8. nBE
11. A-10
12. MVC
That actually understates the drop, because those conferences lost an average of 3 Sagarin points, the difference between the B1G and the Pac-12 this year. However, there are noticeable drop-offs after the Pac-12 and after the MVC, so the drop isn't see as much in the rankings.
It seems that this is something that hasn't been brought up much, but I think it will have some effect on TV deals and NCAA bids going forward. Adding 5-7 teams from the A-10 and MVC solidifies the gap between the C7 and those conferences, and jumps it to considerably ahead of the nBE. I'm assuming the MWC is a statistical outlier, because this is probably the best year in the conference in decades; normally the C7 would be ranked second or third.
How much impact do you think this will have?