Quote:Toledo +9.5
Utah State -9.5
Utah State is one of the more underrated teams, with a way better D than Toledo. Toledo can do damage, and have only lost 3 of their games by 7 points against bowling opponents. But they don't dominate over many, including D1AA team by 10. I think this is a fair line, seeing as it's out West. I say Utah State will solidly be above on the stat sheet, Toledo will need turnovers to win, but either way, Toledo knows how to win or at least keep it close. Utah State by 12.
Quote:Central FL -8.0
Ball State +8.0
UCF is a pretty good team. Two of their losses were close games to Tulsa, and a close game to Missouri, and a relatively close game to OSU (albeit OSU was still getting their shiite together). I would say UCF by 7. Overall a fair spread.
Quote:W Kentucky -6.0
Central Mich +6.0
Not everyone's so hyped about CMU this year. But being able to get in a bowl surprisingly, there may be enough fans to make some noise. W Kentucky hasn't been playing that well lately, and being on the road in a bowl should be a good MAC vs Sun Belt test. I would say it's CMU by 1.
Quote:San Jose St -7.5
Bowling Grn +7.5
A great year for BGSU, losing to Florida by only 13 in the Swamp, Kent by 7, and Toledo by 12. But being blown out by a disappointing VTech team 37-0, and struggling to beat 1-11 Idaho by 8 at home? BGSU has been winning their games lately, and they'll be ready to rumble. San Jose State is a GOOD GOOD team, though. Better than BGSU. Lost to Stanford by 3, beat SDSU, beat BYU, beat LA-Tech, and their only other loss was to Utah State in the year. I say San Jose State by 11.
Quote:Ohio +7.0
LA Monroe -7.0
Ohio's on a down swing, and this is on LA Monroe's home turf. They beat Arkansas, and lost to Auburn & Baylor by less than a TD in each game. Add to that beating good mid-major 8-4 Midd Tennessee on the road, this is going to come down to whether Solich can rally his troops appropriately. I would say LA Monroe by 6. However, it's too unpredictable. I only say that because Ohio's lost 4 out of the last 5 and it's totally on the road to an equal-record mid-major who's played BCS teams very well.
Quote:N Illinois +13.5
Florida St -13.5
NIU is good, possibly slightly over-rated, but nothing that doesn't put them in position as being a balanced, powerful mid-major. They can get behind, but score quick. They consistently win but don't have that rock-solid ummph, and their weak schedule can't convince folks otherwise. But they know how to win. And Florida St IS overrated and seemingly pointed down, despite it's uber-talent. It's a fair spread. I would say Florida State by 13.
Quote:Kent State +5.0
Arkansas St -5.0
Kent State wins on turnovers when it'd otherwise be a close game but a loss. Although their D can step it up when they need to and cause problems, their D gives up more yards than their offense gets, on average. But they don't need it that much when it comes to everything else, notably turnover margin, and that is EXACTLY what this is going to come down to! Do not bet on this game :) Ark State scored over 30 on Oregon, and has a better average of both Offense & Defense than Kent. They are a 1-loss team in their conference, pasting many decent teams, but laying an egg against W Kentucky, while only beating a 4-8 Memphis at home by 5. If Kent gets +2 turnovers, which is not uncommon for them, they win. If the turnover margin is equal, Kent loses. I say it's a PICK 'EM.
OVERALL EXPECTATION: 2-3W, 4-5L
The MAC here has a chance to prove itself, though. If we run the table on 3 very-deservingly ranked teams (Florida State, Utah State, San Jose State), the Sun Belt Champ, and the CUSA runner-up -- Herbstreit will be eating crow all winter long, and it will be MACxtacy. :)