12-02-2012, 07:59 AM
http://espn.go.com/college-football/bcs
I'm going over the BCS procedures with some granularity.
Please indicate if you disagree.
Couple of things come to mind:
1). The two human poll scores are NOT ranks. They are point totals which are displayed as ranks in the standings. What is important is the # of points (votes?) which the school receives as a percentage of the total. A team could fall say a couple ranks but their share of their vote could drop from say 50% to 35%. That is significant. Every vote counts because it is percentage of votes, not ranks, which are being measured. Another team could move up a few ranks yet their percentage of the votes might go up only 5% (say 20% -> 25%).
Currently NE gets 52% of the possible human vote in both Harris and USA Today so 2/3s of their total score is .52 + .52 + .58 (computer) summed and divided by 3 or ~ .54.
2). NIU is #18 and 19 in the two human polls. They could gain a lot of ground even if they don't move up a lot of ranks. If they move up say 3 or 4 ranks but their share of their possible vote goes from 22% of the possible points to say 35% they will move much more than some think.
3). This also means that if two schools are ranked say #15 and 16 with one human vote in one poll separating them that there is no difference to speak (when the vote percentages are calculated they are really tied and the difference at the 3 or 4 decimal place is not measurable). The one difference in rank means nothing.
4). The current #16 is UCLA and they got 33% of their possible points from the two human polls and computer poll average.
I'm guessing NIU needs to do say nearly 40% in each human poll and 20% in the computer poll (the computer poll will be tough to get up as high as it needs to be).
NIU needs to do say 600 votes in the USA Today coaches poll????
Where is Nate Silver?
I'm going over the BCS procedures with some granularity.
Please indicate if you disagree.
Couple of things come to mind:
1). The two human poll scores are NOT ranks. They are point totals which are displayed as ranks in the standings. What is important is the # of points (votes?) which the school receives as a percentage of the total. A team could fall say a couple ranks but their share of their vote could drop from say 50% to 35%. That is significant. Every vote counts because it is percentage of votes, not ranks, which are being measured. Another team could move up a few ranks yet their percentage of the votes might go up only 5% (say 20% -> 25%).
Currently NE gets 52% of the possible human vote in both Harris and USA Today so 2/3s of their total score is .52 + .52 + .58 (computer) summed and divided by 3 or ~ .54.
2). NIU is #18 and 19 in the two human polls. They could gain a lot of ground even if they don't move up a lot of ranks. If they move up say 3 or 4 ranks but their share of their possible vote goes from 22% of the possible points to say 35% they will move much more than some think.
3). This also means that if two schools are ranked say #15 and 16 with one human vote in one poll separating them that there is no difference to speak (when the vote percentages are calculated they are really tied and the difference at the 3 or 4 decimal place is not measurable). The one difference in rank means nothing.
4). The current #16 is UCLA and they got 33% of their possible points from the two human polls and computer poll average.
I'm guessing NIU needs to do say nearly 40% in each human poll and 20% in the computer poll (the computer poll will be tough to get up as high as it needs to be).
NIU needs to do say 600 votes in the USA Today coaches poll????
Where is Nate Silver?