CSNbbs

I ran an analysis earlier in the week to show that aside from losing the Memphis program, our league would remain largely unchanged from a strength of schedule standpoint as a result of the latest round of realignment. Now I wanted to look at the impact on football. C*USA will be the same as nBE when it comes to BCS bowl access: the highest ranked team goes. So, it should be our goal to position ourselves to have a team get there every year.

For rankings, I used the Warren Nolan Power Index over the last 5 seasons (including this one). I did not include UTSA, Charlotte, or ODU, since they have no FBS track record. It should be noted, however, that UTSA is currently ranked 69 this year (:rolltide:) and ODU's average ranking is 15 over the last 4 seasons in FCS. Here's what we've got:

Tulsa 36.6
Houston 47.8
La Tech 56.6
UCF 56.6
ECU 57.8
USM 60.2
MTSU 68.6
SMU 71.4
Marshall 77.8
FIU 79.2
Rice 79.4
UTEP 90.6
FAU 93.6
UAB 97.8
UNT 103
Memphis 105.8
Tulane 111.4

Good to see that we're cutting the two worst programs and adding North Texas so we won't be the worst.

Old conference 5-year average: 74.4
New conference 5-year average: 76.7

So, once again, not a huge discernable difference at all between the two.

Some interesting points:

-Tulane is the only team on this list to put up triple digits in all 5 years (congrats!) Memphis accomplished this three times, and UAB has accomplished this over the last two years.

-This total group of teams finished in the Top 30 11 times over the past 5 years. The new group claims 7 of these. La Tech and MTSU will be strong additions for football.

-While ECU has been very consistent, they have failed to crack the Top 40 over the last 5 years.

-It goes without saying that adding NMSU would be worse than retaining Tulane and Memphis.

-USM's average not counting this season was 44.

Geez. We're 29 freakin' slots below MTSU and 19 below UTSA. :muttering:

Where does WKU fall considering FAU got their spot?

Oh FN now stop it. Folks prefer to overreact and predict the sky is falling or doomsday.

No such predictions here. I see good things ahead for our football program.

If anything, I see value in adding the team's we're adding that are (a) competitive and (b) beatable. I may catch some friendly fire for saying this, but had we competed against this set of teams over the last ten years, our football program would likely have more prestige than it does today. And going 10-2 vs "a glorified Sun Belt" is no different to the casual fan than beating UCF, Houston et al because if it ain't SEC, it don't matter--but winning does.

That being said, I am looking forward to seeing Stache build a championship program.

(11-30-2012 09:49 AM)FNblazer Wrote: [ -> ]For rankings, I used the Warren Nolan Power Index over the last 5 seasons (including this one). I did not include UTSA, Charlotte, or ODU, since they have no FBS track record. It should be noted, however, that UTSA is currently ranked 69 this year () and ODU's average ranking is 15 over the last 4 seasons in FCS. Here's what we've got:

FIFY

My favorite number.

(11-30-2012 12:32 PM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote: [ -> ]My favorite number.

Really? I thought it was "33..."

(11-30-2012 11:54 AM)FNblazer Wrote: [ -> ]If anything, I see value in adding the team's we're adding that are (a) competitive and (b) beatable. I may catch some friendly fire for saying this, but had we competed against this set of teams over the last ten years, our football program would likely have more prestige than it does today. And going 10-2 vs "a glorified Sun Belt" is no different to the casual fan than beating UCF, Houston et al because if it ain't SEC, it don't matter--but winning does.

That being said, I am looking forward to seeing Stache build a championship program.

I get this logic, but I thought the same thing would happen in 2004 when we brought in the horrible SMU, Tulsa, and Rice programs. It didn't work out well for us.

However, this time, I think it will because our downfall from 2004 - present has been the result of other internal issues, not the opponents we've played. I think our internal issues are finally about to get better. In fact, it looks like they already are getting better (beginning with a coach of our own choosing).

I agree...the 2004-2011 period was highlighted by the demise of Watson followed by the lost half-decade of Neil.