It's time to "lock in" our predictions for the 2012 season. My initial optimism has been tempered due to big concerns on offense. Balancing that pessmism out is the "Doeren factor", in light of his being hotshot candidate for a promotion very soon.
So with that, I predict 7-5. The offensive line will be a problem all season long. The running game is a big concern too. I suspect Jordon Lynch struggles and, a bit unfairly so, becomes the 2012 whipping boy for dashed dreams. He's not Chandler Harnish, and holding him to that standard is ridiculous.
Looking at it game by game - I really think NIU should finish somewhere in the 7 - 5 and 10-2 range. The way I have it penciled in below is at 9 - 3, but finishing third in the MAC West. I think this team pulls together and wins 9 games....not sure where exactly the 9 will come from, but I'll go with 9.
Iowa - L
UT Matin- W
Army - W
Kansas - W
CMU - W
BSU - W
Buffalo - W
Akron - W
WMU - L
UMASS - W
Toledo - L
EMU - W
I imagine Lynch's ability to run / break tackles will make the Oline actually look better when he can be hit, than it looked at the scrimmage. They've also been together what, two days in the current form?
Iowa could be rough for the Oline as they continue to gel, but I expect the defense and special teams to keep it close enough that we can pull it out if we make a few big plays. Certainly could be over-optimistic, but I've liked Doeren from day one, I'll have faith in the guy to make it work.
Couple things I considered, while we didn't end up with Fleck, we do have a very experienced OC. Now that we're rebuilding our OLine on the fly, that could matter more than having a charismatic recruiter. Also, while I'm sure the better MAC teams and the OOC games will give us some trouble, the schedule is pretty kind to us. Only five road games and we get Buffalo and UMass at home which would have been our longest road trips, and Toledo at home.
I see five rather easy wins on paper, assuming good health - UMass, CMU, Akron, Buffalo, Tennessee Martin
After that, you have WMU, EMU and Ball State, where we're probably favored.
Don't know enough about Army or Kansas, but I assume those are toss up games, Toledo probably the same. Iowa, we're under dogs, but unless Lynch has a terrible game, would think it will be competitive, no reason to think we can't win.
I went with 9-3. Probably split the last four and then one bad loss in there some where with a young offense. If Lynch ends up playing well though, with this schedule, could have quite a season.
I went with 8-4. Just because.
I expect for the second year in a row that the Senior Class be the winningest Sr class in NIU history. That mark is achieved at 7 wins.
I expect for the team to get invited to a bowl game which they will win.
9-3.
I would have gone with 10-2 before the injuries on the O-Line.
(08-20-2012 09:04 AM)HuskieJohn Wrote: [ -> ]I expect for the second year in a row that the Senior Class be the winningest Sr class in NIU history. That mark is achieved at 7 wins.
I expect for the team to get invited to a bowl game which they will win.
ui-l
utm-w
a-w
ku-w
mac games-6-2
9-3
however, if niu wins ui game....
8-4 with a bowl victory, winning one of either Iowa or Kansas games along the way.
Iowa - L
UT Matin- W
Army - W
Kansas - L
CMU - W
BSU - W
Buffalo - W
Akron - W
WMU - L
UMASS - W
Toledo - L
EMU - W
9-3 best case. Would have to beat 3 of 4 non-conf. 7-5 more likely, going 2-2 non conf, NIU going on the road and getting upset somewhere is likely, even in a terrible MAC. Too many line issues. Wvenb with that, too much talent vs. rest of conf to lose more than 5, but if Lynch misses time, don't see a win.
11-1
with a loss not sure who to..but think we will lose 1..
expect exact opposite of last year, instead of being high scoring games, expect defense to be the standout and hold most to under 21.
Iowa, will be one dimensional with the loss of their running back(as seen when Coker was suspended for the bowl game) 1300 yards and 15TDs is a lot to make up. Then his mediocre replacement tore his ACL out for the year. And their top freshman rb was carted off the field during a recent scrimmage.("There's no official word, but he couldn't put weight on the leg, there was a pop and he needed to be taken to the lockerroom on a golf cart," Marc Morehouse of the Cedar Rapids Gazette wrote.") Also Iowa loses their top WR from last year.(by they way he was the all time WR in TD in Iowa history).. Also they hired they have a new o-cord from Texas(who sucked last year and still has better athletes then iowa).The defense was bad last year (375+yards/game and 24+ points/game) and they lost another 3 starters. Kicker hit 14/20 FGs last year and the competing for the job of starting punter is a former qb recruit. From ESPN.."Yes, the Hawkeyes are frightfully young on the defensive line. Yes, they are replacing three starters on the offensive line. And, yes, the Iowa running back curse could mean that a school janitor is taking carries by the end of the season"
Kansas
Two words.. Charlie Weis.. If we had a defense last year we would have won..Lost their starting qb(transfered), new coach, new systems, new players...Kansas was statistically the worst defense in FBS in 2011. Weis has brought in Dave Campo to try and shore up that defense. Campo, a former Dallas Cowboy assistant and head coach, is widely respected for his ability to line the players up in the right spot but will still need to find some players... And Dayne Christ shouldn't scare anyone...he was terrible at ND(notice he is playing for Kansas now)
WMU:
Sure Carder is back, but his 3 WRs aren't..especially White who was insane last year..Now they have a walk-on and two freshmen starting at WR, expect Carder's numbers to come back down. Worst defense in nation against the run.. Don't see this as a loss..
Toledo:
Lost #1 playmaker, and defense has always sucked, so stopping toledo should be easier this year since our defense should be real good.
Worst case is 6-6. Lose all 3 FCS OOC games, WMU, Toledo, and another random MAC game.
Best case is 12-0.
I'll be optimistic and go 9-3. Losses to Iowa, WMU, and another MAC game. Will that be good enough to get us to Detroit? Depends how the 2nd loss is to and what WMU does. I'll take WMU to win the West.
I don't think the offense will be as bad as people think. It's going to score. They'll get it figured out. The question will be if the defense is actually as good as it's supposed to be.
(08-20-2012 11:03 AM)7 Wrote: [ -> ]Worst case is 6-6. Lose all 3 FCS OOC games, WMU, Toledo, and another random MAC game.
Best case is 12-0.
I'll be optimistic and go 9-3. Losses to Iowa, WMU, and another MAC game. Will that be good enough to get us to Detroit? Depends how the 2nd loss is to and what WMU does. I'll take WMU to win the West.
I don't think the offense will be as bad as people think. It's going to score. They'll get it figured out. The question will be if the defense is actually as good as it's supposed to be.
Really going out on a limb here. But I case everyone's "best case scenario" is 12-0
I will say 9-4 now. No MACC, but we win our bowl game.
Losses to Iowa, WMU, Toledo, and Kansas.
cartershaw:
"WMU:
Sure Carder is back, but his 3 WRs aren't..especially White who was insane last year..Now they have a walk-on and two freshmen starting at WR, expect Carder's numbers to come back down. Worst defense in nation against the run.. Don't see this as a loss.."
While I don't disagree with you regarding our defense. Miles and miles of improvement need to happen if we expect to win the West. Until that happens, all we have is a dynamic offense that hopes to outscore teams.
The former walk on you are referring to Eric Monette. He happens to be Carder's roomate. And most expect him to catch 80+ balls this year.
To paraphase coach Cubit in a recent article....someone is going to catch 80 balls this year, someone is going to catch 70 balls this year, and someone is going to catch 60 balls this year...we just don't know who those people will be right now.
Right now, they have a 5th year senior (Monette), a junior (Schaffer), 2 juco transfers (Collins and Duncan), 3 redshirt frosh (Keith, Bynes and Roberts) and 3 true frosh (Wilson, King and Braverman) that are competing for spots. Only Monette is a given.
I don't expect Carder's number to dip significantly unless we suddenly find a running game that produces 100 yard rushers on a consistent basis. Don't hold your breath on that one.
(08-20-2012 10:53 AM)randyfensfanclub1 Wrote: [ -> ]Iowa - L
UT Matin- W
Army - W
Kansas - L
CMU - W
BSU - W
Buffalo - W
Akron - W
WMU - L
UMASS - W
Toledo - L
EMU - W
9-3 best case. Would have to beat 3 of 4 non-conf. 7-5 more likely, going 2-2 non conf, NIU going on the road and getting upset somewhere is likely, even in a terrible MAC. Too many line issues. Wvenb with that, too much talent vs. rest of conf to lose more than 5, but if Lynch misses time, don't see a win.
9-3 best case? On a team that returns an entire defense, an elite WR group and a QB with big game experience? If the OLine is half decent, there's no team on the schedule that they can't beat.. they're not playing a bunch of world beater's this year, the schedule is as soft as one could make it.
9-3 is not a best case scenario for even an average team with our schedule. Best case means winning the vast majority of 50/50 chances, interceptions on tipped balls, recovering fumbles, onside kicks, long miracle field goals to win games, etc.. How in the world is 9-3 the best case for this team with this schedule?
(08-20-2012 11:50 AM)HuskieFan84 Wrote: [ -> ] (08-20-2012 10:53 AM)randyfensfanclub1 Wrote: [ -> ]Iowa - L
UT Matin- W
Army - W
Kansas - L
CMU - W
BSU - W
Buffalo - W
Akron - W
WMU - L
UMASS - W
Toledo - L
EMU - W
9-3 best case. Would have to beat 3 of 4 non-conf. 7-5 more likely, going 2-2 non conf, NIU going on the road and getting upset somewhere is likely, even in a terrible MAC. Too many line issues. Wvenb with that, too much talent vs. rest of conf to lose more than 5, but if Lynch misses time, don't see a win.
9-3 best case? On a team that returns an entire defense, an elite WR group and a QB with big game experience? If the OLine is half decent, there's no team on the schedule that they can't beat.. they're not playing a bunch of world beater's this year, the schedule is as soft as one could make it.
9-3 is not a best case scenario for even an average team with our schedule. Best case means winning the vast majority of 50/50 chances, interceptions on tipped balls, recovering fumbles, onside kicks, long miracle field goals to win games, etc.. How in the world is 9-3 the best case for this team with this schedule?
How?
Because they play the games on the FIELD not on PAPER.
Here's the problem about DEFENSE...the MAC is overwhelmingly an offense first conference. It's been that way for a long time. While I think NIU's defense will be improved over last year, I don't think its enough to change the course of our won-loss record. I really don't.
Offense is KING in the MAC. To ignore that reality is to be disappointed.
I reserve until a few days before Iowa game my right to stick out my neck.
Not having Pegram -the guy who touches the ball first most every play on O - already has me downgrading my earlier expectations.
Any yea before you reply with it: I know the cliche about the loss being another players opportunity to step up...yada yada yada
(08-20-2012 11:59 AM)WhiskeyDick Wrote: [ -> ]Here's the problem about DEFENSE...the MAC is overwhelmingly an offense first conference. It's been that way for a long time. While I think NIU's defense will be improved over last year, I don't think its enough to change the course of our won-loss record. I really don't.
Offense is KING in the MAC. To ignore that reality is to be disappointed.
This is what I'm afraid of too. The defense no doubt played better down the stretch, but there's a lot of guys playing who gave up a lot of points last year. There's no doubt it'll be better than last year, but I'm not 100% covninced it'll be as good as people are saying.
So...the offense won't be as good as we hoped because of the O-lineand uncertainty about Lynch, and the defense won't be as good as anticipated. Does that about sum it up?