This has got to be one of the closest races in conference history. There's is a LOT of quality baseball teams in the ASUN this year. Mercer is fighting just to make the 6-team tourney with a 14-12 A-Sun record and 36-19 overall with one game to go. (Trailing 1-0 now to Upstate in the 3rd).
The first place team has 16 conference wins with Mercer tied 6th and 14 conference wins. That's pretty amazing.
REGULAR SEASON going into last game:
* USC Upstate 16-9 ..... 33-17
* Belmont 16-10 ..... 34-21
* Stetson 15-10 ..... 34-19
* Kenn. State 15-10 ..... 31-22
Mercer 14-12 ..... 36-19
Lipscomb 14-12 ..... 25-29
FGCU 13-12 ..... 22-29
Here's how it panned out. May 23rd it begins @ host site Stetson. Speaking of Stetson they dropped all the way to #6 after entering the weekend with a chance to win the regular season title.
#1 Belmont
#2 USC-Upstate
#3 Kennesaw State
#4 Florida Gulf Coast
#5 Mercer
#6 Stetson
Using
Warren Nolan.com the RPI ranks for these teams are impressive. All six are in the Top 100 and the A-Sun is 10th nationally out of 31+1 for independents.
#64 Belmont
#72 USC-Upstate
#79 Kennesaw State
#99 Florida Gulf Coast
#81 Mercer
#53 Stetson
My only problem with the league this year was scheduling. Some teams played FIVE home games and their rival (regional) on the road, while others played only FOUR home series with no rival road game. This means some teams like Mercer, FGCU and Lipscomb (in particular) played 18 of its 27 league games within two hours of home. While others who were battling for that final spot like UNF, played only 12 games within five hours. UNF's closest road game was FGCU, opening weekend.
I just think that skews who is #4, #5, and #6 in this scenario. There is no way you can't tell me UNF doesn't benefit two games or more with six more games within its own region. I just think there has to be a better way to balance out the schedule (home/away/regionally).
(05-21-2012 09:00 AM)Statman101 Wrote: [ -> ]My only problem with the league this year was scheduling. Some teams played FIVE home games and their rival (regional) on the road, while others played only FOUR home series with no rival road game. This means some teams like Mercer, FGCU and Lipscomb (in particular) played 18 of its 27 league games within two hours of home. While others who were battling for that final spot like UNF, played only 12 games within five hours. UNF's closest road game was FGCU, opening weekend.
I just think that skews who is #4, #5, and #6 in this scenario. There is no way you can't tell me UNF doesn't benefit two games or more with six more games within its own region. I just think there has to be a better way to balance out the schedule (home/away/regionally).
at least it evens out next year when sites reverse. Stetson had more road than home this time but next season will get NKU, ETSU, KSU, Mercer and UNF at home with trips to Lipscomb, Upstate, JU and FGCU. 2 short trips and 2 long ones, that's balanced.
(05-21-2012 12:15 PM)HatterFan Wrote: [ -> ] (05-21-2012 09:00 AM)Statman101 Wrote: [ -> ]My only problem with the league this year was scheduling. Some teams played FIVE home games and their rival (regional) on the road, while others played only FOUR home series with no rival road game. This means some teams like Mercer, FGCU and Lipscomb (in particular) played 18 of its 27 league games within two hours of home. While others who were battling for that final spot like UNF, played only 12 games within five hours. UNF's closest road game was FGCU, opening weekend.
I just think that skews who is #4, #5, and #6 in this scenario. There is no way you can't tell me UNF doesn't benefit two games or more with six more games within its own region. I just think there has to be a better way to balance out the schedule (home/away/regionally).
at least it evens out next year when sites reverse. Stetson had more road than home this time but next season will get NKU, ETSU, KSU, Mercer and UNF at home with trips to Lipscomb, Upstate, JU and FGCU. 2 short trips and 2 long ones, that's balanced.
Not from what I heard. We shall see I guess, but I don't think it balances as easily as you would think.
So who wins it all?
Speaking as a SU fan, I'm hoping the homefield advantage can help take them to the regionals however this team, returning almost everyone from last year, has really struggled. What the heck happened?
As has been said, this is going to be a highly competitive tourney, will all teams highly respected.
If SU does win it, will USC or anyone else get an at-large bid?
Good luck everyone!
This is a packed field of talent. FGCU is pretty weak compared to their competition. I don't fear belmont either.
(05-23-2012 03:10 AM)MercerFan Wrote: [ -> ]This is a packed field of talent. FGCU is pretty weak compared to their competition. I don't fear belmont either.
FGCU just swept Stetson and has some of the best pitching in the league including the leagues best starter.
Plus, no one feared Belmont last year either. I personally think the Bruins are pretty dang good, because they do everything pretty well.
(05-23-2012 02:50 AM)Stetson_1883 Wrote: [ -> ]So who wins it all?
Speaking as a SU fan, I'm hoping the homefield advantage can help take them to the regionals however this team, returning almost everyone from last year, has really struggled. What the heck happened?
As has been said, this is going to be a highly competitive tourney, will all teams highly respected.
If SU does win it, will USC or anyone else get an at-large bid?
Good luck everyone!
As for Stetson and what happened, the pitching is average at best on the weekend and there is no one in the middle of the lineup who scares you. Stetson doesn't hit home runs and there isn't a single guy in that order who can change the game on one swing. They have good hitters, but no stud like they had last year.
Mercer is hammering USC-Upstate in the opening game of the tournament. Will play the winner of Kennesaw State/Florida Gulf Coast
(05-23-2012 09:02 AM)Statman101 Wrote: [ -> ] (05-23-2012 03:10 AM)MercerFan Wrote: [ -> ]This is a packed field of talent. FGCU is pretty weak compared to their competition. I don't fear belmont either.
FGCU just swept Stetson and has some of the best pitching in the league including the leagues best starter.
Plus, no one feared Belmont last year either. I personally think the Bruins are pretty dang good, because they do everything pretty well.
I must admit you're right about FGCU being (at minimum) hot right now. I still think Mercer can handle them in game 2 if they knock off KSU. Mercer bats put up 11 on Upstate this morning.
(05-23-2012 09:03 AM)Statman101 Wrote: [ -> ] (05-23-2012 02:50 AM)Stetson_1883 Wrote: [ -> ]So who wins it all?
Speaking as a SU fan, I'm hoping the homefield advantage can help take them to the regionals however this team, returning almost everyone from last year, has really struggled. What the heck happened?
As has been said, this is going to be a highly competitive tourney, will all teams highly respected.
If SU does win it, will USC or anyone else get an at-large bid?
Good luck everyone!
As for Stetson and what happened, the pitching is average at best on the weekend and there is no one in the middle of the lineup who scares you. Stetson doesn't hit home runs and there isn't a single guy in that order who can change the game on one swing. They have good hitters, but no stud like they had last year.
CHA-Ching! You said what I was thinking a lot better than I ever could.
After Day 1:
#1 Belmont (1-0)
#4 FGCU (1-0)
#5 Mercer (1-0)
#2 USC Upstate (0-1)
#3 Kennesaw State (0-1)
#6 Stetson (0-1)
I hope for day 2 that Upstate can eliminate Stetson and Belmont eliminate KSU. I don't need to state what I want to see in the Mercer/FGCU game..
(05-23-2012 09:02 AM)Statman101 Wrote: [ -> ] (05-23-2012 03:10 AM)MercerFan Wrote: [ -> ]This is a packed field of talent. FGCU is pretty weak compared to their competition. I don't fear belmont either.
FGCU just swept Stetson and has some of the best pitching in the league including the leagues best starter.
Plus, no one feared Belmont last year either. I personally think the Bruins are pretty dang good, because they do everything pretty well.
I'm going to go back to this post and point out that pitching is winning in the tournament. Big run totals are fools gold in baseball because pitching is the biggest factor. Belmont and FGCU have the two lowest conference ERAs.
For example and no offense Mercerfan but Mercers run totals are skewed by an overall weak schedule and the smallest park in the league. In the league the Bears hit under .280 and since most teams don't publish specialty stats, we will never know how much that ball park help but it helps alot.
All I'm trying to say is I picked FGCU and Belmont to be tough because of pitching and pitching alone.
Ok so I got bored...6.2 runs a game in the league at home and 3.8 away. I realize the park hurts Mercer pitching too sooo...4.9 runs per game for league opponents in Macon and 5.3 on the road.
Well Belmont and FGCU eliminate the Bears. Tough loss to Gulf Coast in the 9th. I must say I was quite wrong on which teams to fear, as they are the exact ones that beat MU.
And Belmont wins the thing. This tournament played out in a crazy fashion. Congrats to the Bruins winning it after an early loss. They proved against Mercer that they were worthy.