If Georgetown, St. John's, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, Villanova and DePaul bolted to form a basketball league, I think Notre Dame would go with them barring a non-football invite to the Big 12 or ACC. ND will keep it's independance even if they have to throw their non-revenues under the bus.
Those 8 Basketball schools would probably go ahead and pick up Butler, Xavier, and maybe others and have a great basketball league.
(05-10-2012 01:40 AM)ChrisLords Wrote: [ -> ]If Georgetown, St. John's, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, Villanova and DePaul bolted to form a basketball league, I think Notre Dame would go with them barring a non-football invite to the Big 12 or ACC. ND will keep it's independance even if they have to throw their non-revenues under the bus.
Those 8 Basketball schools would probably go ahead and pick up Butler, Xavier, and maybe others and have a great basketball league.
Yeh, I guess it could depend on the money and what happens with the BCS payouts too.
I guess it'll depend on the stupidity of NBC. Are the Irish even worth 15 million after the kind of season they had ratings-wise? I know Terry D will say yes since they need them but I don't think they are worth $15 million especially if they do pick up the C-USA or BE or both since they can provide content for much less and probably get the same kind of ratings. If their TV revenue drops, it'll be hard for them to say no to a conference, I mean het they are already breaking a few traditions in the Kelly era what's a few more.
(05-10-2012 06:29 AM)wildthing202 Wrote: [ -> ]I guess it'll depend on the stupidity of NBC. Are the Irish even worth 15 million after the kind of season they had ratings-wise? I know Terry D will say yes since they need them but I don't think they are worth $15 million especially if they do pick up the C-USA or BE or both since they can provide content for much less and probably get the same kind of ratings. If their TV revenue drops, it'll be hard for them to say no to a conference, I mean het they are already breaking a few traditions in the Kelly era what's a few more.
Consider that the Mississippi schools make more under the SEC agreement, the Washington schools make more under the PAC 12 agreement, Indiana makes more under the B1G deal. That said, I would think that ND is worth at least $15MM.
ND's slogan is 'Keep me Independent or Give me death' and as long as they have access to the playoffs, they're indy.
I don't think it is about money for ND. Even if they had no TV contract for football I believe they would remain independent. There are a couple of issues that might make ND consider a conference.
Scheduling. As conferences expand, the number of slots available decreases. Timing is also an issue. Everyone has OOC games available at the beginning of the season. Less and less as the season goes on.
ND needs a decent home for their Olympic sports. If the BE were to split along FB/BB lines, would either of those conferences satisfy ND? The popular theory is that ND would stick with the BB conference. I'm not so sure. The question is would ND allow its Olympic sports to a mid-major type conference or give up independence to keep them in a major conference? That is assuming the B12 would not offer ND a BE-like deal? (Olympic sports plus a football scheduling agreement.
Unless ND is completely shut out of the playoff and the other BCS bowls they will remain independent. However, a playoff/BCS that bars access to the Irish won't have legitimacy to the most people. It would take something very very radical other than that to force their hands, such as no one wanting to give them a decent media rights deal. However, NBC will definitely keep them in the fold.
The day that the major conferences find solidarity with each other, that is the day to worry about ND independence. In a time when all the conferences are looking suspiciously at each other because of worrying about being fed upon or waiting for the right time to feed, Notre Dame will only continue to be able to work it's Independent magic playing the conferences off against each other.
Notre Dame loves having everyone say they would most likely join the ACC if they joined a conference because that gains them great leverage with the B1G, PAC and Big 12 conferences. It also maintains their position of administrative dominance in the Big East of which they are not even a full partner of.
As much as I have become a bit sickened by what conference realignment is doing to all of us, I have a lot of respect for how Notre Dame is playing the powers off agaisnt each other.
"Fistful of Dollars"
Hoping beyond all hope that ND joins the ACC; that is the conference's best and really only play. *sigh*
(05-10-2012 02:02 PM)JustAnotherName Wrote: [ -> ]Hoping beyond all hope that ND joins the ACC; that is the conference's best and really only play. *sigh*
As you know, the conference's
best play is for four of its best football programs - FSU, Miami, VT, Clemson, Pitt, GT, and SU to consistently perform at a high level.
Cheers,
Neil
(05-10-2012 07:50 AM)HtownOrange Wrote: [ -> ] (05-10-2012 06:29 AM)wildthing202 Wrote: [ -> ]I guess it'll depend on the stupidity of NBC. Are the Irish even worth 15 million after the kind of season they had ratings-wise? I know Terry D will say yes since they need them but I don't think they are worth $15 million especially if they do pick up the C-USA or BE or both since they can provide content for much less and probably get the same kind of ratings. If their TV revenue drops, it'll be hard for them to say no to a conference, I mean het they are already breaking a few traditions in the Kelly era what's a few more.
Consider that the Mississippi schools make more under the SEC agreement, the Washington schools make more under the PAC 12 agreement, Indiana makes more under the B1G deal. That said, I would think that ND is worth at least $15MM.
My guess is that NBC will renew the contract or it will go on the open market and that not only is ND worth the $15 million per year, but that it also will get $5-10 million a year more.
In a day and age when networks are paying hundreds of millions of dollars per year to conferences, another $5-10 million per year to ND from NBC is a proverbial drop in the bucket.
Besides that, I predict that NBC will also sign the Big East to a TV deal and the two deals will be announced at about the same time. NBC needs content and did not sign a national hockey TV deal with ND just to dump the football broadcasts.
Seriously, this (alleged but doubtful) ND fan actually thinks that CUSA is a better TV deal than ND? Ok.......
(05-10-2012 08:51 AM)Wolfman Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think it is about money for ND. Even if they had no TV contract for football I believe they would remain independent. There are a couple of issues that might make ND consider a conference.
Scheduling. As conferences expand, the number of slots available decreases. Timing is also an issue. Everyone has OOC games available at the beginning of the season. Less and less as the season goes on.
ND needs a decent home for their Olympic sports. If the BE were to split along FB/BB lines, would either of those conferences satisfy ND? The popular theory is that ND would stick with the BB conference. I'm not so sure. The question is would ND allow its Olympic sports to a mid-major type conference or give up independence to keep them in a major conference? That is assuming the B12 would not offer ND a BE-like deal? (Olympic sports plus a football scheduling agreement.
Scheduling will not a problem. The PAC 12 allows a scheduling exception for ND. So, there is USC and Stanford every year. One of them is always the last game of the season out on the West Coast.
There will be Michigan State and likely Purdue every year, possibly Michigan on a semi-regular basis. There are deals for series with Texas, Oklahoma, Miami, etc... BYU needs a late season game every year. Navy will play ND every year. So will Pitt, at least 8 years out of 10 if not annually. There is a deal in place to play Syracuse.
What about games with new Big East teams SMU, Houston, Boise State, San Diego State? If all else fails, ND can schedule Cincinnati, UConn, Rutgers.
Olympic sports, while very successful and important to ND, would not be a major factor in "forcing" ND to give up football independence.
As long as ND can find a "good enough" conference home for its other sports (BE, "Catholic League", Big 12, etc..), there is no way those sports would force ND to give up football independence.
Why do people continue to bring this up?
I now believe that Notre Dame will eventually join the ACC as a partial member in a way similar to their Big East membership.
That membership will be for selective sports other than football in exchange for a minimum number of football games per year. This will allow the Irish football to be shown on ESPN multiple times per year when the games are played at ACC venues, which in turn will generate an increase in the dollars paid for the new ACC television contract.
The Irish could "fill in" in sports in which all of the ACC schools do not participate in (i.e. Georgia Tech does not play soccer ((men's or women's)) and only 5 ((with Syracuse)) schools play lacrosse, etc.)
This may be the "carrot" that ESPN is holding out before the ACC as a means to increase their TV money.
I would imagine there would be at least 6 games per year (four annual home and home series with Miami, GT, Pitt and BC, and two other games that would rotate between Syracuse, Maryland, Carolina and Wake Forest).
That would mean three guaranteed broadcasts of Notre Dame football on ESPN/ABC and more money for ACC television rights. It's a win-win for all three parties. And it would provide the Irish an easy step into full membership if there was ever a vacancy with the current 14 or the ACC wanted to expand to 16.
Yesterday the Connecticut governor Daniel P. Malloy held out an olive branch to Boston College saying "The reality is that time has the ability to heal all wounds, and hopefully we will move forward." "Economically it makes great sense. The schools are 80 miles apart. Instead of a plane trip, It's a bus ride. We should be doing more of that not less," Malloy said.
Educated rumors suggest that the ACC with UConn and Notre Dame would increase the ESPN per team payout in the $22M to $25M per year mark.
Partial membership for a period of time for Notre Dame would allow time for their fans and alumni to "settle in" to the idea.
There seems to be a lot of posturing taking place at the highest levels.
(05-11-2012 06:51 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (05-10-2012 08:51 AM)Wolfman Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think it is about money for ND. Even if they had no TV contract for football I believe they would remain independent. There are a couple of issues that might make ND consider a conference.
Scheduling. As conferences expand, the number of slots available decreases. Timing is also an issue. Everyone has OOC games available at the beginning of the season. Less and less as the season goes on.
ND needs a decent home for their Olympic sports. If the BE were to split along FB/BB lines, would either of those conferences satisfy ND? The popular theory is that ND would stick with the BB conference. I'm not so sure. The question is would ND allow its Olympic sports to a mid-major type conference or give up independence to keep them in a major conference? That is assuming the B12 would not offer ND a BE-like deal? (Olympic sports plus a football scheduling agreement.
Scheduling will not a problem. The PAC 12 allows a scheduling exception for ND. So, there is USC and Stanford every year. One of them is always the last game of the season out on the West Coast.
There will be Michigan State and likely Purdue every year, possibly Michigan on a semi-regular basis. There are deals for series with Texas, Oklahoma, Miami, etc... BYU needs a late season game every year. Navy will play ND every year. So will Pitt, at least 8 years out of 10 if not annually. There is a deal in place to play Syracuse.
What about games with new Big East teams SMU, Houston, Boise State, San Diego State? If all else fails, ND can schedule Cincinnati, UConn, Rutgers.
Olympic sports, while very successful and important to ND, would not be a major factor in "forcing" ND to give up football independence.
As long as ND can find a "good enough" conference home for its other sports (BE, "Catholic League", Big 12, etc..), there is no way those sports would force ND to give up football independence.
Why do people continue to bring this up?
I brought it up because the discussion was about forcing ND into a conference. I believe the Olympic sports are a factor, just not THEE factor. I believe ND wants it Olympic sports in a major conference. As long as the BE exists they have that. Without the BE they would try and solicit a similar deal from the B12. The P12 doesn't seem to be an option. The ACC and B1G have said no to partial membership so if all of those dominoes fall, Olympic sports becomes a factor. I don't believe the "Catholic League" would meet the "good enough" criteria.
The Notre Dame to ACC rumors are at least as strong as the FSU to Big12 rumors... and they've only gotten stronger since the TV contract went up $4 million/team.
Here's an
interesting post you may have seen already. The basic gist of it is - ESPN is trying to maneuver matters to snatch Notre Dame away from NBC. Not sure how that would affect the ACC's media rights deal, but I could definitely see another $2-3 million/year if ND was added...
I think there are some strong
Pros (and a few
Cons) to consider here as well. It may well come down to the final version of the football
playoffs.
(05-11-2012 06:37 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (05-10-2012 07:50 AM)HtownOrange Wrote: [ -> ] (05-10-2012 06:29 AM)wildthing202 Wrote: [ -> ]I guess it'll depend on the stupidity of NBC. Are the Irish even worth 15 million after the kind of season they had ratings-wise? I know Terry D will say yes since they need them but I don't think they are worth $15 million especially if they do pick up the C-USA or BE or both since they can provide content for much less and probably get the same kind of ratings. If their TV revenue drops, it'll be hard for them to say no to a conference, I mean het they are already breaking a few traditions in the Kelly era what's a few more.
Consider that the Mississippi schools make more under the SEC agreement, the Washington schools make more under the PAC 12 agreement, Indiana makes more under the B1G deal. That said, I would think that ND is worth at least $15MM.
My guess is that NBC will renew the contract or it will go on the open market and that not only is ND worth the $15 million per year, but that it also will get $5-10 million a year more.
In a day and age when networks are paying hundreds of millions of dollars per year to conferences, another $5-10 million per year to ND from NBC is a proverbial drop in the bucket.
Besides that, I predict that NBC will also sign the Big East to a TV deal and the two deals will be announced at about the same time. NBC needs content and did not sign a national hockey TV deal with ND just to dump the football broadcasts.
Seriously, this (alleged but doubtful) ND fan actually thinks that CUSA is a better TV deal than ND? Ok.......
Agreed.
(05-11-2012 07:26 AM)XLance Wrote: [ -> ]I now believe that Notre Dame will eventually join the ACC as a partial member in a way similar to their Big East membership.
That membership will be for selective sports other than football in exchange for a minimum number of football games per year. This will allow the Irish football to be shown on ESPN multiple times per year when the games are played at ACC venues, which in turn will generate an increase in the dollars paid for the new ACC television contract.
The Irish could "fill in" in sports in which all of the ACC schools do not participate in (i.e. Georgia Tech does not play soccer ((men's or women's)) and only 5 ((with Syracuse)) schools play lacrosse, etc.)
This may be the "carrot" that ESPN is holding out before the ACC as a means to increase their TV money.
I would imagine there would be at least 6 games per year (four annual home and home series with Miami, GT, Pitt and BC, and two other games that would rotate between Syracuse, Maryland, Carolina and Wake Forest).
That would mean three guaranteed broadcasts of Notre Dame football on ESPN/ABC and more money for ACC television rights. It's a win-win for all three parties. And it would provide the Irish an easy step into full membership if there was ever a vacancy with the current 14 or the ACC wanted to expand to 16.
Yesterday the Connecticut governor Daniel P. Malloy held out an olive branch to Boston College saying "The reality is that time has the ability to heal all wounds, and hopefully we will move forward." "Economically it makes great sense. The schools are 80 miles apart. Instead of a plane trip, It's a bus ride. We should be doing more of that not less," Malloy said.
Educated rumors suggest that the ACC with UConn and Notre Dame would increase the ESPN per team payout in the $22M to $25M per year mark.
Partial membership for a period of time for Notre Dame would allow time for their fans and alumni to "settle in" to the idea.
There seems to be a lot of posturing taking place at the highest levels.
The idea is good, but the practicality is that a school is one conference only, except where that conference does not offer a sport, the school may align with another conference. EX. Big East offers lacrosse, therefore, ND cannot join the ACC for lacrosse; juttapose with ND hockey. Big East doe not offer hockey so ND is free to join any other conference for hockey. The exception is that any team may retain independent status in lieu of playing in their conference, whcih is what ND does for football.
(05-11-2012 06:51 AM)TerryD Wrote: [ -> ] (05-10-2012 08:51 AM)Wolfman Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think it is about money for ND. Even if they had no TV contract for football I believe they would remain independent. There are a couple of issues that might make ND consider a conference.
Scheduling. As conferences expand, the number of slots available decreases. Timing is also an issue. Everyone has OOC games available at the beginning of the season. Less and less as the season goes on.
ND needs a decent home for their Olympic sports. If the BE were to split along FB/BB lines, would either of those conferences satisfy ND? The popular theory is that ND would stick with the BB conference. I'm not so sure. The question is would ND allow its Olympic sports to a mid-major type conference or give up independence to keep them in a major conference? That is assuming the B12 would not offer ND a BE-like deal? (Olympic sports plus a football scheduling agreement.
Scheduling will not a problem. The PAC 12 allows a scheduling exception for ND. So, there is USC and Stanford every year. One of them is always the last game of the season out on the West Coast.
There will be Michigan State and likely Purdue every year, possibly Michigan on a semi-regular basis. There are deals for series with Texas, Oklahoma, Miami, etc... BYU needs a late season game every year. Navy will play ND every year. So will Pitt, at least 8 years out of 10 if not annually. There is a deal in place to play Syracuse.
What about games with new Big East teams SMU, Houston, Boise State, San Diego State? If all else fails, ND can schedule Cincinnati, UConn, Rutgers.
Olympic sports, while very successful and important to ND, would not be a major factor in "forcing" ND to give up football independence.
As long as ND can find a "good enough" conference home for its other sports (BE, "Catholic League", Big 12, etc..), there is no way those sports would force ND to give up football independence.
Why do people continue to bring this up?
Agreed, again. Essentially, the only way to force ND to play football in a conference is to make a playoff system where ND has no access unless in a conference; or if ND football drops off for so long to such low levels (think 20+ years of Div II quality), then ND could be forced into a conference.
With Kelly at the helm, ND will be a perennial winner and should challenge for playoff spots.
Guys, there is nothing other than a " conference only" playoff that will "force" ND football into a conference.
Three points:
1) ND will likely still have playoff access.
2). NBC will likely "re-up" with ND for more money.
3). The Big East will likely survive in a form "good enough" for ND's other sports.
Is there any credible evidence anywhere that any of the above three statements are incorrect?