If a MAC team went undefeated going into bowl season(13-0), could the MAC get a BCS team?
Realistically OU has the best, and probably only chance. Toledo has an outside shot, and 2 big names on their schedule to help em out.
NIU has as good a shot at it as either OHIO or Toledo, perhaps better with two very beatable BCS opponents on the schedule, one (Kansas) in our stadium...
(04-09-2012 12:19 AM)NIUfilmmaker Wrote: [ -> ]NIU has as good a shot at it as either OHIO or Toledo, perhaps better with two very beatable BCS opponents on the schedule, one (Kansas) in our stadium...
NIU could be close, but I hope Toledo can finally get the Huskies this year, and keep them out of a BCS bowl.
Who is NIU's OOC games?
NIU has a nice schedule, but I really just don't think you can replace four senior offensive linemen and be that good. They could really drop off.
All of Toledo's non-conference games are winnable, and they are probably the most talented team in the MAC. Not an ideal schedule travel-wise, though.
WMU gets the above two teams at home and UConn at home, Illinois and Minny on the road. Again, all winnable, but 3-0 is obviously a stretch.
Penn State is a huge obstacle for Ohio, but they're as likely as anyone.
I think 13-0 (undefeated and nothing less unfortunately) with some BCS wins against decent programs (not Minnesota, Indiana, Vanderbilt, Washington State, etc) could and should give a MAC team a BCS bowl bid. You can go 13-0 for 4 consecutive seasons and still somehow not get higher than ranked 3rd. Just ask Boise State and TCU.
Hawaii did it and Ball State could have if they had won (assuming there were no other non-AQ champs ahead of them at the time I don't remember). Miami and Marshal would have if the BCS operated back then like it does now. Any MAC team that goes undefeated stands a very good chance the only kicker is whether any other non-AQ champs do the same. As we know many of the former non-AQ powerhouses are now AQ like TCU and Utah so those are no longer obstacles. Boise still is though (for whatonly next season right?) this is a "reload" year so to speak so they may lose a game or two putting them out of it. So chances are fairly good but only if you go undefeated which is easier said than done. If another non-AQ is undefeated then it will come down to resumes which at this point is too hard to guess I think.
(04-09-2012 08:01 AM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote: [ -> ]Hawaii did it and Ball State could have if they had won (assuming there were no other non-AQ champs ahead of them at the time I don't remember). Miami and Marshal would have if the BCS operated back then like it does now. Any MAC team that goes undefeated stands a very good chance the only kicker is whether any other non-AQ champs do the same. As we know many of the former non-AQ powerhouses are now AQ like TCU and Utah so those are no longer obstacles. Boise still is though (for whatonly next season right?) this is a "reload" year so to speak so they may lose a game or two putting them out of it. So chances are fairly good but only if you go undefeated which is easier said than done. If another non-AQ is undefeated then it will come down to resumes which at this point is too hard to guess I think.
TCU, Utah, and Boise were all in front of BSU..
Utah was the three seed that season and destroyed Alabama. Boise pushed a bit to get Ball State to come out to the Boise Bowl before the MACC because both were, at the time, undefeated.
Apart from our two returning QBs what is the basis for the optimism surrounding Toledo? New coach, no Eric Page, no Adonis Thomas or Morgan Williams, no D-I know this is the preseason and everyone is an All-American but I'm thinking 7 wins would be pretty good.
(04-09-2012 09:48 AM)H2Oville Rocket Wrote: [ -> ]Apart from our two returning QBs what is the basis for the optimism surrounding Toledo? New coach, no Eric Page, no Adonis Thomas or Morgan Williams, no D-I know this is the preseason and everyone is an All-American but I'm thinking 7 wins would be pretty good.
EMU fans think we have a shot at UT this year (yes, I saw last year's game - UT played great; EMU played their worst game of the year).
(04-09-2012 12:38 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote: [ -> ] (04-09-2012 12:19 AM)NIUfilmmaker Wrote: [ -> ]NIU has as good a shot at it as either OHIO or Toledo, perhaps better with two very beatable BCS opponents on the schedule, one (Kansas) in our stadium...
NIU could be close, but I hope Toledo can finally get the Huskies this year, and keep them out of a BCS bowl.
Who is NIU's OOC games?
Kansas at Huskie Stadium, Iowa at Soldier Field...
I think a 13-0 MAC team is in many/most times, unless the BCS and the
particular season somehow can build a case against. (several other undefeated BCS teams, several 12-1 BCS squads with only loss to a top 10....)
(04-09-2012 09:48 AM)H2Oville Rocket Wrote: [ -> ]Apart from our two returning QBs what is the basis for the optimism surrounding Toledo? New coach, no Eric Page, no Adonis Thomas or Morgan Williams, no D-I know this is the preseason and everyone is an All-American but I'm thinking 7 wins would be pretty good.
Nahh, a good QB can bring you a long ways, and Toledo has 2.
Even two years ago Toledo wasn't that good and went 8-4, and was good enough to beat Wyoming and could have been 9-3. To say Toledo will be worse than 8-4 is pessimistic thinking. The only reason Toledo lost 4 games last year is because they played a brutal schedule and got screwed vs. Syracuse. We'll be better in defense, have veterans behind the center, and have a coach who calls timeouts. That is a recipe for success.
To answer the original question...
I'm all for optimism in April....but it seems there is a slight need for a reality check on this thread.
A MAC team isn't going to a BCS game if they are undefeated. It just isn't happening unless the team happens to get 2 wins against top tier BCS teams (ie-upper half of the Big Ten) AND there is a serious log jam of teams with 2 or 3 losses. In short, a lot of things would have to go our way. Calling it a long shot would be an understatement.
The most likely scenerio would be IF a MAC team went undefeated, the BE champ was horrendous at something like 8-4, and there was a real shortage of quality teams for the BCS to choose from. You would need 5 conference champs from the Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, ACC, and SEC to go along with a crappy Big East team....and then one other at large team with 2 losses....and every other BCS team would have to lay an egg with a minimum of 4 losses.
Does anyone thing that the BCS folks would give a MAC team a shot as an at large team over a 9-3 Michigan team? A 9-3 Notre Dame team? Texas at 9-3? Florida? at 9-3?
There were 15 BCS teams (including TCU and Boise) that finished with 11+ wins last year. Parity would have to reign and that number would have to get knocked down to 5 or 6 teams...and another 8 teams that finished with 10 wins would need to lose one or two more games as well. That's somewhere between 30-45 football games played by top level BCS teams that need be turned into losses...and we haven't even talked about BCS teams that finished with 9 wins in the regular season.
The scenerio isn't in the cards right now.
(04-09-2012 10:43 AM)EA3 Wrote: [ -> ]To answer the original question...
I'm all for optimism in April....but it seems there is a slight need for a reality check on this thread.
A MAC team isn't going to a BCS game if they are undefeated. It just isn't happening unless the team happens to get 2 wins against top tier BCS teams (ie-upper half of the Big Ten) AND there is a serious log jam of teams with 2 or 3 losses. In short, a lot of things would have to go our way. Calling it a long shot would be an understatement.
The most likely scenerio would be IF a MAC team went undefeated, the BE champ was horrendous at something like 8-4, and there was a real shortage of quality teams for the BCS to choose from. You would need 5 conference champs from the Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, ACC, and SEC to go along with a crappy Big East team....and then one other at large team with 2 losses....and every other BCS team would have to lay an egg with a minimum of 4 losses.
Does anyone thing that the BCS folks would give a MAC team a shot as an at large team over a 9-3 Michigan team? A 9-3 Notre Dame team? Texas at 9-3? Florida? at 9-3?
There were 15 BCS teams (including TCU and Boise) that finished with 11+ wins last year. Parity would have to reign and that number would have to get knocked down to 5 or 6 teams...and another 8 teams that finished with 10 wins would need to lose one or two more games as well. That's somewhere between 30-45 football games played by top level BCS teams that need be turned into losses...and we haven't even talked about BCS teams that finished with 9 wins in the regular season.
The scenerio isn't in the cards right now.
EA, you're spot on... I think Boise not getting a BCS bowl game last season tells us all we need to know..
*IF* the MAC champ goes undefeated and nobody from CUSA / MWC / or any other Mid Major conference does it than possibly, by rule, they will. But thats all a long shot.
You're going about that answer completely wrong, EA. There are zero scenarios where a MAC school earns an at-large bid, which is what you're trying to create.
The two ways to an automatic bid are
A) Finish in the top 12 as the highest non-AQ champion.
B) Finish in the top 16 as the highest non-AQ champion and have the Big East or ACC suck so badly you're ranked ahead of their automatic qualifier champion.
Boise State just finished 7th, but lost the Mountain West to #18 TCU. No auto-bid, no BCS bowl. Enjoy pounding 6-6 Arizona State in mid-December.
B) is the only realistic answer with West Virginia gone from the Big East this season and replaced by Temple.
(04-09-2012 11:03 AM)bronconick Wrote: [ -> ]You're going about that answer completely wrong, EA. There are zero scenarios where a MAC school earns an at-large bid, which is what you're trying to create.
The two ways to an automatic bid are
A) Finish in the top 12 as the highest non-AQ champion.
B) Finish in the top 16 as the highest non-AQ champion and have the Big East or ACC suck so badly you're ranked ahead of their automatic qualifier champion.
Boise State just finished 7th, but lost the Mountain West to #18 TCU. No auto-bid, no BCS bowl. Enjoy pounding 6-6 Arizona State in mid-December.
B) is the only realistic answer with West Virginia gone from the Big East this season and replaced by Temple.
Agreed.
What I was trying to say was that...it isn't happening even if people create the goofiest of goofy scenerios.
(04-09-2012 06:08 AM)wmubroncopilot Wrote: [ -> ]All of Toledo's non-conference games are winnable...
But the question is can an undefeated MAC team get a BCS bowl bid and Toledo has an UNWINNABLE game in Dekalb.
(04-09-2012 09:48 AM)H2Oville Rocket Wrote: [ -> ]Apart from our two returning QBs what is the basis for the optimism surrounding Toledo? New coach, no Eric Page, no Adonis Thomas or Morgan Williams, no D-I know this is the preseason and everyone is an All-American but I'm thinking 7 wins would be pretty good.
Gawd are you a sandbagger! When do you get them to shoot pool for a just a friendly little wager?
(04-09-2012 11:11 AM)EA3 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-09-2012 11:03 AM)bronconick Wrote: [ -> ]You're going about that answer completely wrong, EA. There are zero scenarios where a MAC school earns an at-large bid, which is what you're trying to create.
The two ways to an automatic bid are
A) Finish in the top 12 as the highest non-AQ champion.
B) Finish in the top 16 as the highest non-AQ champion and have the Big East or ACC suck so badly you're ranked ahead of their automatic qualifier champion.
Boise State just finished 7th, but lost the Mountain West to #18 TCU. No auto-bid, no BCS bowl. Enjoy pounding 6-6 Arizona State in mid-December.
B) is the only realistic answer with West Virginia gone from the Big East this season and replaced by Temple.
Agreed.
What I was trying to say was that...it isn't happening even if people create the goofiest of goofy scenerios.
What is this board for, if not goofy scenarios?
CMU has the schedule to do it this year but neither the talent nor hype. A non-AQ team needs some hype going in to the year. When Boise had Kellen Moore returning last year and started high in the rankings they can maintain their standing by winning. They would have been in a BCS game if they had beaten TCU and won their conference.
(04-09-2012 04:40 PM)CMUprof Wrote: [ -> ]CMU has the schedule to do it this year but neither the talent nor hype. A non-AQ team needs some hype going in to the year. When Boise had Kellen Moore returning last year and started high in the rankings they can maintain their standing by winning. They would have been in a BCS game if they had beaten TCU and won their conference.
Boise gets way more national respect than any MAC team. Like it or not, their history of playing with the big boys and not laying an egg gives them an advantage amongst the people who decide the at large teams. They are a proven commodity. 12+ years running.
The question is about MAC teams....not mountain west or conf USA teams that go undefeated.
You really think cmu has the schedule to do it? I disagree completely, because of multiple reasons.