03-01-2012, 02:46 PM
Fellas, here are the winning and losing margins for all of the teams in the MAC. Conference games only.
Winning margin in ppg:
WMU: W= 14.1 ppg
Ohio: W= 12.6 ppg
BGSU: W= 12.3 ppg (8.8 WMU/NIU)
BSU: W= 12.2 ppg
Akron: W= 11.5 ppg (9.9 EMU)
TOL: W= 9.6 ppg (5.6 NIU)
Kent: W= 9.5 ppg
Buff: W= 8.2 ppg
CMU: W= 8.2 ppg
EMU: W= 5.4 ppg
NIU: W= 5 ppg
Miami: W= 4.6 ppg
Losing margin in ppg:
BGSU: L= 6.1 ppg
Buff: L= 6.2 ppg
Miami: L= 6.5 ppg
WMU: L= 6.7 ppg (4.6 BGSU)
Ohio: L= 7.8 ppg
BSU: L= 9.5 ppg
TOL: L= 9.6 ppg
EMU: L= 10.6 ppg (6.8 Akron)
Kent: L= 10.6 ppg (7.7 Ohio)
CMU: L= 12.2 ppg
Akron: L= 13.3 ppg (8 Ohio)
NIU: L= 16.7 ppg
The info in paranthesis is the average IF a statistical outlier is removed. Probably not scientific, but noteworthy if you choose to remove a turd from a few schedules, and one gem (BGSU? Akron?) from a few schedules.
Here are a couple conclusions:
*Ohio is the MOST dangerous offensive team in the MAC. They own 20+ blowout wins over Kent and Akron.
*Does anyone realize that Miami has 10 losses in the league and only 2 of them are by double digits? 15 point loss @ Akron and a 10 point loss @ Buffalo. Not to mention, all 5 of their wins are in single digits!
*Note that WMU has only a single win when the game comes down to a possession or less (CMU at home).
*If you were to assign each team a 1-12 ranking and compiled them for both sets of numbers to determine which team is the most dangerous overall, it would look like this: BGSU, WMU, Ohio, Buffalo, Ball St, Toledo, Miami, Akron, Kent, EMU, CMU, NIU. Which is where I realized that this list doesn't determine who is dangerous...only which team is likely to keep it close, winning or losing.
*And obviously the numbers are skewed because the schedules aren't balanced. For example, the winning margin for WMU get bolstered by double digit wins over Toledo, NIU and Ball St. Knowing this, the results would be even more weighted towards East teams. Their winning margins would be slightly greater if they played 2 or 3 more east teams, and their losing margins would be slightly lower. And the opposite is true of West teams.
*This could be a year where a team like Miami or BGSU puts it all together and makes an unlikely run. Although BGSU probably can't be considered unlikely because they are at least the 5th best team in the MAC. Heck, with these results, Miami is probably the 6th or 7th best team and is gonna get the shaft in seeding because they play in the East. Chalk up another reason to go to one division in bball.
Winning margin in ppg:
WMU: W= 14.1 ppg
Ohio: W= 12.6 ppg
BGSU: W= 12.3 ppg (8.8 WMU/NIU)
BSU: W= 12.2 ppg
Akron: W= 11.5 ppg (9.9 EMU)
TOL: W= 9.6 ppg (5.6 NIU)
Kent: W= 9.5 ppg
Buff: W= 8.2 ppg
CMU: W= 8.2 ppg
EMU: W= 5.4 ppg
NIU: W= 5 ppg
Miami: W= 4.6 ppg
Losing margin in ppg:
BGSU: L= 6.1 ppg
Buff: L= 6.2 ppg
Miami: L= 6.5 ppg
WMU: L= 6.7 ppg (4.6 BGSU)
Ohio: L= 7.8 ppg
BSU: L= 9.5 ppg
TOL: L= 9.6 ppg
EMU: L= 10.6 ppg (6.8 Akron)
Kent: L= 10.6 ppg (7.7 Ohio)
CMU: L= 12.2 ppg
Akron: L= 13.3 ppg (8 Ohio)
NIU: L= 16.7 ppg
The info in paranthesis is the average IF a statistical outlier is removed. Probably not scientific, but noteworthy if you choose to remove a turd from a few schedules, and one gem (BGSU? Akron?) from a few schedules.
Here are a couple conclusions:
*Ohio is the MOST dangerous offensive team in the MAC. They own 20+ blowout wins over Kent and Akron.
*Does anyone realize that Miami has 10 losses in the league and only 2 of them are by double digits? 15 point loss @ Akron and a 10 point loss @ Buffalo. Not to mention, all 5 of their wins are in single digits!
*Note that WMU has only a single win when the game comes down to a possession or less (CMU at home).
*If you were to assign each team a 1-12 ranking and compiled them for both sets of numbers to determine which team is the most dangerous overall, it would look like this: BGSU, WMU, Ohio, Buffalo, Ball St, Toledo, Miami, Akron, Kent, EMU, CMU, NIU. Which is where I realized that this list doesn't determine who is dangerous...only which team is likely to keep it close, winning or losing.
*And obviously the numbers are skewed because the schedules aren't balanced. For example, the winning margin for WMU get bolstered by double digit wins over Toledo, NIU and Ball St. Knowing this, the results would be even more weighted towards East teams. Their winning margins would be slightly greater if they played 2 or 3 more east teams, and their losing margins would be slightly lower. And the opposite is true of West teams.
*This could be a year where a team like Miami or BGSU puts it all together and makes an unlikely run. Although BGSU probably can't be considered unlikely because they are at least the 5th best team in the MAC. Heck, with these results, Miami is probably the 6th or 7th best team and is gonna get the shaft in seeding because they play in the East. Chalk up another reason to go to one division in bball.