Larkin is only no-doubter on Hall of Fame ballot
![[Image: bilde?Site=AB&Date=20111231&...ame-ballot]](http://cmsimg.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=AB&Date=20111231&Category=COL19&ArtNo=312310035&Ref=AR&MaxW=640&Border=0&Larkin-only-no-doubter-Hall-Fame-ballot)
AP Photo/Al Behrman
Former Reds great Barry Larkin sits on the ESPN set before a game July 24 between the Reds and the Atlanta Braves at GABP.
Written by
John Erardi
I enjoy waiting until the final day of the Baseball Hall of Fame voting period – Dec. 31 -- and then faxing my ballot to the secretary-treasurer of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA).
It gives me time to read all the articles online, crunch some numbers and debate the merits of the candidates with my gurus over a holiday burger and beer.
Here's who I voted for: Barry Larkin, Fred McGriff, Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, Dale Murphy, Alan Trammell and Tim Raines.
Here's who I also considered, but didn't vote for:
• Jack Morris – He was very, very good, but unlike many of my voting brethren, I don't regard his stirring performance in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series as the tipping point for election.
• Mark McGwire -– I'd have voted for him, if not for the steroids.
• Bernie Williams – First of the modern-era Yankees to come up for consideration, and like others to come, has a full season worth of postseason statistics. His postseason numbers are very good, but not good enough to tip it.
• Rafael Palmeiro and Juan Gonzalez – I'd have considered them, but for the steroids.
• Lee Smith – Unlike my friends in Objective Analysis World (aka sabermetricians), I hold no prejudice against closers, but there's definitely a tougher standard than for starting pitchers. I don't think Smith did quite enough.
• Don Mattingly – I love Donnie Baseball, but his chronic back problems that began plaguing him around age 29 kept him from extending those amazing seasons of his early and mid-20s.
The rest of the candidates, in alphabetical order: Jeromy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Juan Gonzalez, Brian Jordan, Javy Lopez (he gave me e pause, because he was actually very good; he played baseball's toughest position, catcher, and was an absolute Reds killer), Bill Mueller, Terry Mulholland, Phil Nevin, Brad Radke (good, but not enough), Tim Salmon (ditto), Ruben Sierra, Tony Womack and Eric Young.
I think there will be a lot of one-name ballots submitted this year.
I think Larkin is the only no-doubter on the list. I think he's going to draw a vote total in the low 80s-percentile (75 percent is required for election).
Hall voting-pattern guru Bill Deane, who I consult annually, projects Larkin at 79 percent.
I regard Bagwell as being close-to-on-par with Larkin, and he's also a Larkin contemporary. Bagwell put up terrific numbers in the cavernous Astrodome, but I don't know if he'll ever make the Hall, because so many writers consider his Popeye arms to be circumstantial evidence of a juicer. I can't go that far. Without direct evidence, I open my ballot to him, and others of his kind.
And yes, Edgar Martinez received my first-ever vote. Even though I'm not happy that he was almost exclusively a designated hitter, I've come around on the “he didn't make the rules" argument. And he was such a force of nature as a hitter, I could no longer disregard him.
I am predisposed toward the comets (shorter careers than most Half of Famers', but dazzling in their prime), which is why I voted for Dale Murphy with those six-of-eight terrific seasons from 24-31, including back-to-back MVPs. Plus, I admit it: I like that he was clean.
Same for Fred McGriff, who piled up his outstanding numbers (493 homers, 1,550 RBI) before the steroid era kicked in.
Larry Walker is an interesting case. Coors Field turns guys into hitters they aren't, but even away from Coors, Walker was still a very, very good player -- and what an arm in right field.
Trammell got my vote because I felt if I voted for Larkin, I had to vote for Trammell, who was overshaowed by Cal Ripken in the American League. Trammell didn't have Larkin's MVP and 30-30 (home runs/stolen bases), but in my opinion he had everything else.
I believe Tim Raines would be a Hall of Famer if he had played on a single World Series team in his prime, and hadn't been involved in cocaine. (I don't hold that against him; see my 15 straight years of support for Dave Parker.) I regard Raines as the second greatest leadoff hitter of the modern era, just behind Rickey Henderson, and just in front of Pete Rose (more on the Hit King later).
This year is the last civil year for Hall of Fame balloting. Next year, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa all come on the ballot.
It's going to be bloody.
I've read a lot about the ‘‘sanctimonious'' baseball writers who are trying to (at least goes the argument) turn the Hall of Fame into their own personal Camelot, i.e. only knights in shining armor allowed.
I'm not a Camelot guy, but I am a Valhalla guy.
I just can't bring myself to vote for guys who so completely destroyed the sanctity of baseball's records.
If bringing up sanctity makes me sanctimonious, then I'm guilty as charged.
Bud Selig and the Players Association failed to police baseball (and keep “The Lists" pure), but I won't shirk it. At least as regards the Hall, the buck stops here. (Should everybody ignore the obvious? These guys cheated in a major way, turning themselves into something they weren't created to be. That's not my definition of a Hall of Famer.)
And yes, I'd like to see Pete Rose get in. There's no evidence he ever bet against his team (that separates him from Shoeless Joe Jackson), and I regard what he did (bet on his team) to be far less heinous than what McGwire, Bonds, Clemens, Sosa et al. did to the game and its hallowed records.
But I won't be leading any campaigns for Rose.
I'm one of the few people who believes he'll be inducted into the Hall before he dies – either as an act of pardon from outgoing commissioner Selig (his contract is up at the end of 2012) or as an act of forgiveness by the incoming commissioner.
I have no idea who is going to be the next commissioner. I do know the owners would love to re-up Selig, even though he'll turn 78 on July 30. But I believe Selig wants to write his memoirs while he's still able. (Rule of thumb: Never bet against the Bible's three score and 10 on the over-under. I think Selig respects that, and I think he'll step down to tell his story.)
Major League executive Andy MacPhail's name always comes up among “The Top 5" to replace Selig. I personally would like to see the grandson of the Roarin' Redhead (former Reds chief executive Larry MacPhail) get the top job.
The BBWAA will reveal on Jan. 9 the results of The Last Civil Ballot.
The only thing I can predict with certainty is this:
It's going to be a crazy 2012.
Quote:PLAYER VALUE RANKINGS ("WAR")
My second-favorite measuring tool to gauge who may or may not be a Baseball Hall of Famer is called ‘‘WAR’’ (Wins Above Replacement).
It judges a player’s career value to his team by determining the number of wins he has contributed to it, over and above what a non-descript player (say, a waiver-wire acquisition) would contribute.
Typically, anybody who’s worth 60 or more victories to his team in his career is a Hall of Famer.
WAR factors in virtually every meaningful baseball statistic -- and that includes defense, which I really like knowing.
The only thing I don’t like is that it doesn’t factor in a player’s postseason statistics. The reason I don’t like that is because I want to know everything about a player, including how he did when the lights were the brightest. Typically, postseason stats are a small sample size, but I still like knowing everything I can get my hands on.
So, I look up a player’s postseason record on my own, and I give it limited weight -- but I do give it some weight, especially if Hall candidate is on the borderline.
The reason I say that WAR is my second favorite measuring tool is because my No. 1 measuring tool is my eye and my memory.
But I always consult WAR, because it’s a great common denominator, an objective apples-to-apples gauge of a player’s value to his team over a career.
That, for me, is really important to know.
Here are the career WAR numbers of everybody on this year’s Hall of Fame Ballot.
THOSE I VOTED FOR:
Jeff Bagwell 79.9
Barry Larkin 68.9
Larry Walker 67.3
Edgar Martinez 67.2
Allan Trammell 66.9
Tim Raines 64.6
Fred McGriff 50.5
Dale Murphy 44.2
OTHERS I GAVE SERIOUS CONSIDERATION:
Rafael Palmeiro 66.0
Mark McGwire 63.1
Bernie Williams 47.3
Don Mattingly 39.8
Jack Morris 39.3
Juan Gonzalez 33.5
Lee Smith 30.3
THOSE AT WHOSE NAMES I AT LEAST PAUSED:
(All are in their first year on the ballot)
Brad Radke 40.9
Tim Salmon 37.6
Brian Jordan 33.5
Javy Lopez 27.9
THOSE I GAVE NO THOUGHT TO:
(All are in their first year on the ballot)
Bill Mueller 22.6
Jeromy Burnitz 17.6
Eric Young 17.0
Vinny Castilla 16.4
Phil Nevin 15.9
Ruben Sierra 13.6
Terry Mullholland 7.3
Tony Womack 1.2
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20111...ext|Sports
