Jerry Palm, the "numbers" guy who is usually very accurate on predicting NCAA b-ball berths, is still insisting that there won't be enough bowl eligible teams this year. He has 6 MAC teams bowling, two playing each other (OU vs WMU in the Idaho Bowl), and no one to play Toledo in the Little Caesar's Bowl. He also has NIU vs FIU in the GoDaddy, Wyoming-Temple in the New Mexico Bowl and EMU vs Miami of Florida (ouch) in the Kraft Hunger Bowl.
I don't think it'll work out that way..I see 70 teams getting bowl eligible but let's hope we don't a MAC on MAC bowl game.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...redictions
At least if we play each other we'll get a bowl win
If there are not enough "eligible" teams to fill all the bowl slots, do teams with losing records then magically become candidates?
(10-31-2011 12:40 PM)Rocket75 Wrote: [ -> ]If there are not enough "eligible" teams to fill all the bowl slots, do teams will losing records then magically become candidates?
My guess is...
First 6-7 teams with 0 or 1 FCS win (Fresno St)
Next 6-7 teams with 2 FCS wins (Air Force)
Then 6-6 teams with 2 FCS wins
So far only 3 BCS teams and 8 others have been eliminated from Bowl consideration. The list is Indiana, Colorado, Southern Cal, Akron, Buffalo, New Mexico, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, FAU, and Idaho. I did a rough estimate of likely bowl eligible squads and came up with 65-74 and then took the difference of 9 and thought maybe 2 out of 3 (these were 4-4 teams) would make it and came up with 71 as a rough estimate. I would peg MAC teams that go bowling at the 4-6 range.
(10-31-2011 02:17 PM)DICK Wrote: [ -> ]So far only 3 BCS teams and 8 others have been eliminated from Bowl consideration. The list is Indiana, Colorado, Southern Cal, Akron, Buffalo, New Mexico, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, FAU, and Idaho. I did a rough estimate of likely bowl eligible squads and came up with 65-74 and then took the difference of 9 and thought maybe 2 out of 3 (these were 4-4 teams) would make it and came up with 71 as a rough estimate. I would peg MAC teams that go bowling at the 4-6 range.
Wow...can I see that in a spread sheet?
(10-31-2011 02:17 PM)DICK Wrote: [ -> ]So far only 3 BCS teams and 8 others have been eliminated from Bowl consideration. The list is Indiana, Colorado, Southern Cal, Akron, Buffalo, New Mexico, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, FAU, and Idaho. I did a rough estimate of likely bowl eligible squads and came up with 65-74 and then took the difference of 9 and thought maybe 2 out of 3 (these were 4-4 teams) would make it and came up with 71 as a rough estimate. I would peg MAC teams that go bowling at the 4-6 range.
That would stink to be the 71st team.
Yeah, I wasn't near as scientific as Dick, but I perused all the standings today, took a look at future schedules for 4-4 type teams, and came up with a likely 72 (which would include about 5 MAC teams).
FWIW, I have EXACTLY SEVENTY teams getting bowl eligible, based on my own algorithm's rankings and assuming the favored team wins every game from here on out.
Bottom-line, the MAC looks well-positioned for a large number of bowl teams.
**************************************************
ACC (8)
Teams with 8+ wins: Clemson, VT, FSU, Georgia Tech, UNC
Teams with 7: Virginia
Teams with 6: Miami FLA, Wake Forest
Teams one win short: NC State (6-6, but they played 2 FCS teams and need 7 wins total)
Big East (6)
Teams with 8+ wins: Cinci, Rutgers, WVU
Teams with 7: USF, Syracuse
Teams with 6: Pittsburgh
Teams one win short: NONE
Big Ten (8)
Teams with 8+ wins: U-M, Wisky, MSU, PSU, Nebraska, Ohio St
Teams with 7: Illinois
Teams with 6: Iowa
Teams one win short: Purdue, Northwestern
Big XII (7)
Teams with 8+ wins: OK State, OU, A&M, K-State, Texas, Missouri
Teams with 7: NONE
Teams with 6: Baylor
Teams one win short: Texas Tech, Iowa State
C-USA (7)
Teams with 8+ wins: Houston, Southern Miss, Tulsa, SMU
Teams with 7: NONE
Teams with 6: UCF, Marshall, UTEP
Teams one win short: NONE
Independents (2)
Teams with 8+ wins: BYU, Notre Dame
Teams with 7: NONE
Teams with 6: NONE
Teams one win short: Navy
MAC (6)
Teams with 8+ wins: Temple, Toledo, Ohio, NIU, EMU (needs 7 to qualify)
Teams with 7: WMU
Teams with 6: NONE
Teams one win short: BGSU, Ball State
MWC (5)
Teams with 8+ wins: Boise St, TCU, San Diego St, AFA (needs 7 to qualify)
Teams with 7: Wyoming (needs 7 to qualify)
Teams with 6: NONE
Teams one win short: NONE
Pac-12 (6)
Teams with 8+ wins: Stanford, Oregon, ASU, Washington, Utah
Teams with 7: NONE
Teams with 6: California
Teams one win short: UCLA
SEC (10):
Teams with 8+ wins: Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina, UGA
Teams with 7: Auburn
Teams with 6: Florida, Tennessee, Miss State, Vanderbilt
Teams one win short: NONE
Sun Belt (3):
Teams with 8+ wins: Arkansas State, FIU, Louisiana-Lafayette
Teams with 7: NONE
Teams with 6: NONE
Teams one win short: North Texas, WKU
WAC (2):
Teams with 8+ wins: Nevada, Hawaii (needs 7 to qualify)
Teams with 7: NONE
Teams with 6: NONE
Teams one win short: Fresno State (needs 7 to qualify), Utah State, Louisiana Tech
*************************
Total teams with 8+ wins (fairly assured of qualifying): 50
Total teams with 7 wins (should qualify): 6
Total teams with 6 wins (barely qualifying): 14 (this includes Wyoming)
Total teams only one win short: 14
(10-31-2011 02:35 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote: [ -> ] (10-31-2011 02:17 PM)DICK Wrote: [ -> ]So far only 3 BCS teams and 8 others have been eliminated from Bowl consideration. The list is Indiana, Colorado, Southern Cal, Akron, Buffalo, New Mexico, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, FAU, and Idaho. I did a rough estimate of likely bowl eligible squads and came up with 65-74 and then took the difference of 9 and thought maybe 2 out of 3 (these were 4-4 teams) would make it and came up with 71 as a rough estimate. I would peg MAC teams that go bowling at the 4-6 range.
That would stink to be the 71st team.
That was Temple last year.
After this Saturday's games, I'll post a "BOWL ELIGIBILITY BOARD" listing the teams not yet eligible, how many wins they need to become eligible, and number of bowls slots available. Perhaps one of the mods can "pin" it up top. (I'll update it as the games play out in the following weeks.)
(10-31-2011 04:06 PM)niubrad00 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-31-2011 02:35 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote: [ -> ] (10-31-2011 02:17 PM)DICK Wrote: [ -> ]So far only 3 BCS teams and 8 others have been eliminated from Bowl consideration. The list is Indiana, Colorado, Southern Cal, Akron, Buffalo, New Mexico, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, FAU, and Idaho. I did a rough estimate of likely bowl eligible squads and came up with 65-74 and then took the difference of 9 and thought maybe 2 out of 3 (these were 4-4 teams) would make it and came up with 71 as a rough estimate. I would peg MAC teams that go bowling at the 4-6 range.
That would stink to be the 71st team.
That was Temple last year.
WMU GOT LEFT OUT LAST YEAR TOO
Okie, did you start at CMU in '74 or graduate in '74? Was wondering as I was at Miami '74 thru '78.
(10-31-2011 04:06 PM)niubrad00 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-31-2011 02:35 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote: [ -> ] (10-31-2011 02:17 PM)DICK Wrote: [ -> ]So far only 3 BCS teams and 8 others have been eliminated from Bowl consideration. The list is Indiana, Colorado, Southern Cal, Akron, Buffalo, New Mexico, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, FAU, and Idaho. I did a rough estimate of likely bowl eligible squads and came up with 65-74 and then took the difference of 9 and thought maybe 2 out of 3 (these were 4-4 teams) would make it and came up with 71 as a rough estimate. I would peg MAC teams that go bowling at the 4-6 range.
That would stink to be the 71st team.
That was Temple last year.
and they beat the team that was in the Fiesta Bowl!
...BCS
(10-31-2011 04:54 PM)conaire Wrote: [ -> ] (10-31-2011 04:06 PM)niubrad00 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-31-2011 02:35 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote: [ -> ] (10-31-2011 02:17 PM)DICK Wrote: [ -> ]So far only 3 BCS teams and 8 others have been eliminated from Bowl consideration. The list is Indiana, Colorado, Southern Cal, Akron, Buffalo, New Mexico, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, FAU, and Idaho. I did a rough estimate of likely bowl eligible squads and came up with 65-74 and then took the difference of 9 and thought maybe 2 out of 3 (these were 4-4 teams) would make it and came up with 71 as a rough estimate. I would peg MAC teams that go bowling at the 4-6 range.
That would stink to be the 71st team.
That was Temple last year.
WMU GOT LEFT OUT LAST YEAR TOO
I think WMU was #72.... :)
(10-31-2011 05:01 PM)exCincy Kid Wrote: [ -> ]Okie, did you start at CMU in '74 or graduate in '74? Was wondering as I was at Miami '74 thru '78.
I was at Central from 74 to 78. Looks like we have a lot in common, other than I attended the better university.
Actually, the MAC had some pretty good teams during those years, especially in HOOPS! That's probably why I became a die-hard MAC fan.
Okie, I also lived in Midland, MI for over 5 years in the mid to late 80's and took in quite a few games at Kelly Shorts while in mid-Michigan..got down to games at EMU and WMU as well in that timeframe. One of my colleagues was a back-up QB at CMU in the late 70's or maybe early 80's when Hogeboom was the starting QB and we went to qutie a few games together along with other "MACsters" I knew.
I was spoiled while at Miami as we won 10 games 3 of my four years and were ranked #10 and #12 in the final polls my frosh and soph years, (beat So. Carolina and Georgia in bowl games those two years), and then we upset defending champ Marquette in the NCAA hoops tourney my senior year. It took 28 years for us to crack the top 10 again with Big Ben in 2003.
(10-31-2011 03:20 PM)NittanyLion Wrote: [ -> ]FWIW, I have EXACTLY SEVENTY teams getting bowl eligible, based on my own algorithm's rankings and assuming the favored team wins every game from here on out.
Bottom-line, the MAC looks well-positioned for a large number of bowl teams.
**************************************************
ACC (8)
Teams with 8+ wins: Clemson, VT, FSU, Georgia Tech, UNC
Teams with 7: Virginia
Teams with 6: Miami FLA, Wake Forest
Teams one win short: NC State (6-6, but they played 2 FCS teams and need 7 wins total)
Big East (6)
Teams with 8+ wins: Cinci, Rutgers, WVU
Teams with 7: USF, Syracuse
Teams with 6: Pittsburgh
Teams one win short: NONE
Big Ten (8)
Teams with 8+ wins: U-M, Wisky, MSU, PSU, Nebraska, Ohio St
Teams with 7: Illinois
Teams with 6: Iowa
Teams one win short: Purdue, Northwestern
Big XII (7)
Teams with 8+ wins: OK State, OU, A&M, K-State, Texas, Missouri
Teams with 7: NONE
Teams with 6: Baylor
Teams one win short: Texas Tech, Iowa State
C-USA (7)
Teams with 8+ wins: Houston, Southern Miss, Tulsa, SMU
Teams with 7: NONE
Teams with 6: UCF, Marshall, UTEP
Teams one win short: NONE
Independents (2)
Teams with 8+ wins: BYU, Notre Dame
Teams with 7: NONE
Teams with 6: NONE
Teams one win short: Navy
MAC (6)
Teams with 8+ wins: Temple, Toledo, Ohio, NIU, EMU (needs 7 to qualify)
Teams with 7: WMU
Teams with 6: NONE
Teams one win short: BGSU, Ball State
MWC (5)
Teams with 8+ wins: Boise St, TCU, San Diego St, AFA (needs 7 to qualify)
Teams with 7: Wyoming (needs 7 to qualify)
Teams with 6: NONE
Teams one win short: NONE
Pac-12 (6)
Teams with 8+ wins: Stanford, Oregon, ASU, Washington, Utah
Teams with 7: NONE
Teams with 6: California
Teams one win short: UCLA
SEC (10):
Teams with 8+ wins: Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina, UGA
Teams with 7: Auburn
Teams with 6: Florida, Tennessee, Miss State, Vanderbilt
Teams one win short: NONE
Sun Belt (3):
Teams with 8+ wins: Arkansas State, FIU, Louisiana-Lafayette
Teams with 7: NONE
Teams with 6: NONE
Teams one win short: North Texas, WKU
WAC (2):
Teams with 8+ wins: Nevada, Hawaii (needs 7 to qualify)
Teams with 7: NONE
Teams with 6: NONE
Teams one win short: Fresno State (needs 7 to qualify), Utah State, Louisiana Tech
*************************
Total teams with 8+ wins (fairly assured of qualifying): 50
Total teams with 7 wins (should qualify): 6
Total teams with 6 wins (barely qualifying): 14 (this includes Wyoming)
Total teams only one win short: 14
How do you figure Texas Tech wont get to six games? Looks like a lock to me....they can compete with Texas and will beat either Missouri or Baylor.
(11-03-2011 11:49 PM)houstonhuskie Wrote: [ -> ]How do you figure Texas Tech wont get to six games? Looks like a lock to me....they can compete with Texas and will beat either Missouri or Baylor.
This isn't gospel, it's a guide --- it simply assumes the team favored per my rankings WILL win every game.
My rankings have TT as an underdog (to varying degrees) in every game. FWIW, Sagarin's predictor ratings have the SAME thing regarding Texas Tech.
I only posted this as a quasi-scientific approximation at how many teams will get bowl eligible and how many additional bowl spots the MAC may garner --- and wouldn't take this for anything more than that.
So, if this scanario pans out, up to 6 MAC teams bowling, eh?