I went back and browsed the pre-season predictions thread from August. Everyone had EMU at 3-3 right now and nobody predicted a win over Toledo. UT will pound several MAC opponents this year and I still think that they could beat most of the Big 10. Hard for EMU to compete with UT, especially when 40% of the starting OL and the top 2 RB's are injured.
We may not always like the way things look on the field or how things play out but EMU is right where we all thought they'd be at this time. EMU is getting in to a string of games that could go either way.
Was thinking the same thing. Basically everyone had us at 3-3 at this point. I think getting blown out really hurts optimism, but our schedule still has 3-4 more winnable games on it. That's progress. All we can ask for from a team that only won two games last season.
Yeah, we are forgetting that most everyone had us at 4 or 5 wins, with an OUTSIDE chance of 6.
I think some are saying "I think we will win 4 or 5 wins' and then get upset when we lose to say PSU.
We pretty well knew that four or five games were not winnable.
From what we know about Toledo. Toledo was unwinnable.
(10-09-2011 10:03 AM)EagleSam Wrote: [ -> ]Was thinking the same thing. Basically everyone had us at 3-3 at this point. I think getting blown out really hurts optimism, but our schedule still has 3-4 more winnable games on it. That's progress. All we can ask for from a team that only won two games last season.
Matter of fact I may have posted the 'win probabilities' before the season:
Howard 95%
AL State 90%
UofM 10%
PSU 10%
Akron 65%
Toledo 20%
CMU 30%
WMU 40% (I would NOT say that now).
BSU 60%
UB 60%
Kent 40%
NIU 20%
Basically, as suggest the first 4 games wee 'baked' before the season started.
Two wins and two losses.
Then hopefully Akron and then either WMU or BSU (most likely BSU)and then either UB or Kent (most like UB).
Of course these have changed some.
WMU is now a terrible opponent for Homecoming and less winnable.
Kent is probably more winnable than UB.
CMU is more winnable as is NIU but either would be a nice upset.
Here are today's Sagarins:
BSU, UB and Kent are essentially toss up games - maybe slight advantages for BSU and UB being at home.
Win two of the three and we have 5 wins.
11 MID-AMERICAN (A) = 61.27 61.53 ( 11) TEAMS= 13 61.52 ( 11)
College Football 2011 through games of October 8 Saturday the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here
HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.08 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR
49 Temple A = 73.94 4 2 64.07( 93) 0 0 | 0 1 | 69.02 63 | 79.56 30
50 Western Michigan A = 73.46 4 2 67.01( 71) 0 0 | 0 2 | 74.36 45 | 71.83 59
56 Toledo A = 72.29 3 3 72.95( 25) 0 1 | 0 1 | 68.04 67 | 76.64 43
77 Ohio University A = 66.31 4 2 57.38( 141) 0 0 | 0 0 | 63.37 91 | 68.65 69
85 Northern Illinois A = 64.74 3 3 62.19( 111) 0 1 | 0 1 | 61.93 98 | 66.91 76
107 Bowling Green A = 60.71 3 3 62.35( 107) 0 0 | 0 1 | 59.81 109 | 60.82 104
111 Central Michigan A = 59.93 2 4 68.02( 58) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.52 106 | 58.55 118
112 Ball State A = 59.70 3 3 68.37( 55) 0 1 | 0 1 | 61.86 99 | 56.77 125
117 Buffalo A = 58.43 2 4 66.28( 78) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.76 119 | 58.32 120
132 Eastern Michigan A = 55.67 3 3 61.59( 118) 0 0 | 0 2 | 58.19 118 | 52.31 149
138 Miami-Ohio A = 54.74 1 4 64.69( 88) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.21 148 | 55.46 129
139 Kent State A = 54.63 1 5 72.15( 31) 0 1 | 0 2 | 55.14 136 | 53.33 140
182 Akron A = 45.30 1 5 65.52( 82) 0 0 | 0 0 | 43.51 194 | 46.20 179
(10-09-2011 12:46 PM)emu steve Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2011 10:03 AM)EagleSam Wrote: [ -> ]Was thinking the same thing. Basically everyone had us at 3-3 at this point. I think getting blown out really hurts optimism, but our schedule still has 3-4 more winnable games on it. That's progress. All we can ask for from a team that only won two games last season.
Matter of fact I may have posted the 'win probabilities' before the season:
Howard 95%
AL State 90%
UofM 10%
PSU 10%
Akron 65%
Toledo 20%
CMU 30%
WMU 40% (I would NOT say that now).
BSU 60%
UB 60%
Kent 40%
NIU 20%
Basically, as suggest the first 4 games wee 'baked' before the season started.
Two wins and two losses.
Then hopefully Akron and then either WMU or BSU (most likely BSU)and then either UB or Kent (most like UB).
Of course these have changed some.
WMU is now a terrible opponent for Homecoming and less winnable.
Kent is probably more winnable than UB.
CMU is more winnable as is NIU but either would be a nice upset.
I'm sorry, but if you're saying the WMU homecoming game is unwinnable and the CMU game is highly unlikely for us to win...I'm sorry, that's a bad season. Beating the Akrons and Kent States and Buffalos of the world means nothing compared to beating (or at least competing with) WMU, CMU, and Toledo. Ask any EMU alum, they'll tell you the same.
(10-09-2011 08:15 AM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote: [ -> ]I went back and browsed the pre-season predictions thread from August. Everyone had EMU at 3-3 right now and nobody predicted a win over Toledo. UT will pound several MAC opponents this year and I still think that they could beat most of the Big 10. Hard for EMU to compete with UT, especially when 40% of the starting OL and the top 2 RB's are injured.
We may not always like the way things look on the field or how things play out but EMU is right where we all thought they'd be at this time. EMU is getting in to a string of games that could go either way.
EMU's record right now is exactly where I expected -- where almost everyone expected -- them to be at the mid-point (3-3). I've got no beef with the record.
The problem is what they've done in each of those games. For the season, Gillett has completed 51.9% of his passes for 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Among starting quarterbacks in the MAC, only Clayton Moore (Akron) and Spencer Keith (Kent State) are worse, and Moore has an excuse, as a redshirt freshman getting his first playing time this fall. There are additional concerns about the play-calling (e.g., failing to respond when Michigan's defense made adjustments, continuing to run the ball when down 20+ points at Toledo) and the turnovers.
(10-10-2011 11:14 AM)cmadler Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2011 08:15 AM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote: [ -> ]I went back and browsed the pre-season predictions thread from August. Everyone had EMU at 3-3 right now and nobody predicted a win over Toledo. UT will pound several MAC opponents this year and I still think that they could beat most of the Big 10. Hard for EMU to compete with UT, especially when 40% of the starting OL and the top 2 RB's are injured.
We may not always like the way things look on the field or how things play out but EMU is right where we all thought they'd be at this time. EMU is getting in to a string of games that could go either way.
EMU's record right now is exactly where I expected -- where almost everyone expected -- them to be at the mid-point (3-3). I've got no beef with the record.
The problem is what they've done in each of those games. For the season, Gillett has completed 51.9% of his passes for 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Among starting quarterbacks in the MAC, only Clayton Moore (Akron) and Spencer Keith (Kent State) are worse, and Moore has an excuse, as a redshirt freshman getting his first playing time this fall. There are additional concerns about the play-calling (e.g., failing to respond when Michigan's defense made adjustments, continuing to run the ball when down 20+ points at Toledo) and the turnovers.
What's your excuse for the defense? Toledo QB's 27-30 passing. Over 500 total yards. Why is only the offense being held to a higher standard? In all my years of watching/playing football, I have never seen all the outrage of a fanbase being directed at the offense after a 54-16 loss.
(10-10-2011 12:49 PM)Bob Wickersham Wrote: [ -> ] (10-10-2011 11:14 AM)cmadler Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2011 08:15 AM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote: [ -> ]I went back and browsed the pre-season predictions thread from August. Everyone had EMU at 3-3 right now and nobody predicted a win over Toledo. UT will pound several MAC opponents this year and I still think that they could beat most of the Big 10. Hard for EMU to compete with UT, especially when 40% of the starting OL and the top 2 RB's are injured.
We may not always like the way things look on the field or how things play out but EMU is right where we all thought they'd be at this time. EMU is getting in to a string of games that could go either way.
EMU's record right now is exactly where I expected -- where almost everyone expected -- them to be at the mid-point (3-3). I've got no beef with the record.
The problem is what they've done in each of those games. For the season, Gillett has completed 51.9% of his passes for 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Among starting quarterbacks in the MAC, only Clayton Moore (Akron) and Spencer Keith (Kent State) are worse, and Moore has an excuse, as a redshirt freshman getting his first playing time this fall. There are additional concerns about the play-calling (e.g., failing to respond when Michigan's defense made adjustments, continuing to run the ball when down 20+ points at Toledo) and the turnovers.
What's your excuse for the defense? Toledo QB's 27-30 passing. Over 500 total yards. Why is only the offense being held to a higher standard? In all my years of watching/playing football, I have never seen all the outrage of a fanbase being directed at the offense after a 54-16 loss.
I'll start by agreeing that the defense is not as good as I'd like. BUT, let's compare this year's defense (so far) to what we saw previous years:
2011 (through 6 games): allowing 26.3 ppg
2010: allowed 43.9 ppg
2009: allowed 38.3 ppg
2008: allowed 35.6 ppg
2007: allowed 31.2 ppg
Now look at the offense:
2011 (through 6 games): 18.5 ppg
2010: 19.0 ppg
2009: 16.4 ppg
2008: 25.8 ppg
2007: 24.2 ppg
The defense is on pace for the fewest points allowed per game since 1996 (25.8 ppg allowed). Yes, even after giving up 54 to Toledo! The offense, on the other hand, is on pace for the fourth-worst points scored per game in the last 18 years.
As to Toledo's scoring on Saturday, 7 points were on a punt return, so charge that to special teams. 14 points came from two interceptions on EMU's side of the field (EMU 42 and EMU 20); if I had to break down the blame I'd charge about 9 of those 14 points to the offense (because even on a short field, the defense a chance to get a stop). I could probably find a few more but those are the biggies, and that leaves 38 points against the defense. Still not great, but against one of the best teams in the MAC, not terrible either.
(10-10-2011 12:49 PM)Bob Wickersham Wrote: [ -> ]What's your excuse for the defense? Toledo QB's 27-30 passing. Over 500 total yards. Why is only the offense being held to a higher standard? In all my years of watching/playing football, I have never seen all the outrage of a fanbase being directed at the offense after a 54-16 loss.
the defense is in a strange situation. our run defense is good - the defensive line is playing well. there's also a lot to like from cudworth and english at LB.
pass defense has not been as successful and it's a little confusing. i believe a lot of us expected LT and Pollard to be two of the top defensive players on this team, which would go a long way towards making our defensive secondary a strength. however, that was FAR from the case against toledo.
here's what i saw:
- toledo has two good QBs
- toledo has an excellent receiver
- it seemed like there was a lot of blown coverage that led to easy passes. on some of these it was unclear to me why the receiver was so open. it looked like a zone defense where a linebacker should have been there, but i don't know for sure.
so, i think we're concentrating more on our QB because:
a) it's easier to recognize offensive failures
b) it's not as clear who was at fault on some of toledo's big plays
also, i don't think the defense had much of a chance in the second half on saturday because they spent so much time on the field.
i'm not a football expert so take this for what it's worth.
go tigers
I agree that the run defense is pretty good. The d-line is tough, and the linebackers and safeties tackle well. I disagree about the d-backs, who, I think, are sound. Our main problem on defense seems to be a lack of pass rush. We did dominate Howard and A. State and accumulated some sack numbers there. But at Toledo there was too little pressure and too much time. Maybe their line was especially good, I don't know. My impression of the Central qb is that he is good when he has time and a clear field of vision, bad when pressured. Pass rush is important this week. On offense, we need the offense to possess the ball and to do that, we need our starting guards and running back to return.
(10-10-2011 08:34 AM)Bob Wickersham Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2011 12:46 PM)emu steve Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2011 10:03 AM)EagleSam Wrote: [ -> ]Was thinking the same thing. Basically everyone had us at 3-3 at this point. I think getting blown out really hurts optimism, but our schedule still has 3-4 more winnable games on it. That's progress. All we can ask for from a team that only won two games last season.
Matter of fact I may have posted the 'win probabilities' before the season:
Howard 95%
AL State 90%
UofM 10%
PSU 10%
Akron 65%
Toledo 20%
CMU 30%
WMU 40% (I would NOT say that now).
BSU 60%
UB 60%
Kent 40%
NIU 20%
Basically, as suggest the first 4 games wee 'baked' before the season started.
Two wins and two losses.
Then hopefully Akron and then either WMU or BSU (most likely BSU)and then either UB or Kent (most like UB).
Of course these have changed some.
WMU is now a terrible opponent for Homecoming and less winnable.
Kent is probably more winnable than UB.
CMU is more winnable as is NIU but either would be a nice upset.
I'm sorry, but if you're saying the WMU homecoming game is unwinnable and the CMU game is highly unlikely for us to win...I'm sorry, that's a bad season. Beating the Akrons and Kent States and Buffalos of the world means nothing compared to beating (or at least competing with) WMU, CMU, and Toledo. Ask any EMU alum, they'll tell you the same.
No, it really does mean something to beat the Akrons, Buffalos, KSUs, and even Alabama St and Howard. It means that, if you win all those games, you've gone 5-7, whereas last year EMU was 2-10 and the year before 0-12.
I won't be satisfied without one more, and I think among CMU, BSU and NIU there could be another win out there.
But, please, be realistic. Everybody wants to win all the time, and EMU has certainly won much more of the time in certain eras, but to turn around a team with the attitude, recruiting record, reputation and institutional culture of EMU when RE took over takes time. So far, the trend is good. Give him another two years and EMU will be a winning program, with legitimate hopes to win the MAC.
I also think EMU, while it will never ever compete with UM and MSU for attention and attendance, can, with smart marketing, be something like the Lansing Lugnuts in SE Michigan -- an attractive, affordable entertainment option at a reasonable price that gets people out to the games at an average attendance of, say, 12,000 .
All in all, those are pretty attractive prospects.
(10-11-2011 10:43 AM)michman83 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-10-2011 08:34 AM)Bob Wickersham Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2011 12:46 PM)emu steve Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2011 10:03 AM)EagleSam Wrote: [ -> ]Was thinking the same thing. Basically everyone had us at 3-3 at this point. I think getting blown out really hurts optimism, but our schedule still has 3-4 more winnable games on it. That's progress. All we can ask for from a team that only won two games last season.
Matter of fact I may have posted the 'win probabilities' before the season:
Howard 95%
AL State 90%
UofM 10%
PSU 10%
Akron 65%
Toledo 20%
CMU 30%
WMU 40% (I would NOT say that now).
BSU 60%
UB 60%
Kent 40%
NIU 20%
Basically, as suggest the first 4 games wee 'baked' before the season started.
Two wins and two losses.
Then hopefully Akron and then either WMU or BSU (most likely BSU)and then either UB or Kent (most like UB).
Of course these have changed some.
WMU is now a terrible opponent for Homecoming and less winnable.
Kent is probably more winnable than UB.
CMU is more winnable as is NIU but either would be a nice upset.
I'm sorry, but if you're saying the WMU homecoming game is unwinnable and the CMU game is highly unlikely for us to win...I'm sorry, that's a bad season. Beating the Akrons and Kent States and Buffalos of the world means nothing compared to beating (or at least competing with) WMU, CMU, and Toledo. Ask any EMU alum, they'll tell you the same.
No, it really does mean something to beat the Akrons, Buffalos, KSUs, and even Alabama St and Howard. It means that, if you win all those games, you've gone 5-7, whereas last year EMU was 2-10 and the year before 0-12.
I won't be satisfied without one more, and I think among CMU, BSU and NIU there could be another win out there.
But, please, be realistic. Everybody wants to win all the time, and EMU has certainly won much more of the time in certain eras, but to turn around a team with the attitude, recruiting record, reputation and institutional culture of EMU when RE took over takes time. So far, the trend is good. Give him another two years and EMU will be a winning program, with legitimate hopes to win the MAC.
I also think EMU, while it will never ever compete with UM and MSU for attention and attendance, can, with smart marketing, be something like the Lansing Lugnuts in SE Michigan -- an attractive, affordable entertainment option at a reasonable price that gets people out to the games at an average attendance of, say, 12,000 .
All in all, those are pretty attractive prospects.
I think you missed my point. Winning is nice, I'll take every one we can get. However, we have to be able to COMPETE with WMU, Toledo, and CMU. We did not compete with Toledo and someone on here basically deemed the homecoming game with WMU as "unwinnable." We should at the very least be able to compete with WMU, especially on homecoming, if not, it is a bad season. What built-in advantage does WMU have over EMU? Why would that game EVER be unwinnable. That was not an unwinnable game for Eastern when Genyk was here, why is it now?
(10-11-2011 11:10 AM)Bob Wickersham Wrote: [ -> ] (10-11-2011 10:43 AM)michman83 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-10-2011 08:34 AM)Bob Wickersham Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2011 12:46 PM)emu steve Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2011 10:03 AM)EagleSam Wrote: [ -> ]Was thinking the same thing. Basically everyone had us at 3-3 at this point. I think getting blown out really hurts optimism, but our schedule still has 3-4 more winnable games on it. That's progress. All we can ask for from a team that only won two games last season.
Matter of fact I may have posted the 'win probabilities' before the season:
Howard 95%
AL State 90%
UofM 10%
PSU 10%
Akron 65%
Toledo 20%
CMU 30%
WMU 40% (I would NOT say that now).
BSU 60%
UB 60%
Kent 40%
NIU 20%
Basically, as suggest the first 4 games wee 'baked' before the season started.
Two wins and two losses.
Then hopefully Akron and then either WMU or BSU (most likely BSU)and then either UB or Kent (most like UB).
Of course these have changed some.
WMU is now a terrible opponent for Homecoming and less winnable.
Kent is probably more winnable than UB.
CMU is more winnable as is NIU but either would be a nice upset.
I'm sorry, but if you're saying the WMU homecoming game is unwinnable and the CMU game is highly unlikely for us to win...I'm sorry, that's a bad season. Beating the Akrons and Kent States and Buffalos of the world means nothing compared to beating (or at least competing with) WMU, CMU, and Toledo. Ask any EMU alum, they'll tell you the same.
No, it really does mean something to beat the Akrons, Buffalos, KSUs, and even Alabama St and Howard. It means that, if you win all those games, you've gone 5-7, whereas last year EMU was 2-10 and the year before 0-12.
I won't be satisfied without one more, and I think among CMU, BSU and NIU there could be another win out there.
But, please, be realistic. Everybody wants to win all the time, and EMU has certainly won much more of the time in certain eras, but to turn around a team with the attitude, recruiting record, reputation and institutional culture of EMU when RE took over takes time. So far, the trend is good. Give him another two years and EMU will be a winning program, with legitimate hopes to win the MAC.
I also think EMU, while it will never ever compete with UM and MSU for attention and attendance, can, with smart marketing, be something like the Lansing Lugnuts in SE Michigan -- an attractive, affordable entertainment option at a reasonable price that gets people out to the games at an average attendance of, say, 12,000 .
All in all, those are pretty attractive prospects.
I think you missed my point. Winning is nice, I'll take every one we can get. However, we have to be able to COMPETE with WMU, Toledo, and CMU. We did not compete with Toledo and someone on here basically deemed the homecoming game with WMU as "unwinnable." We should at the very least be able to compete with WMU, especially on homecoming, if not, it is a bad season. What built-in advantage does WMU have over EMU? Why would that game EVER be unwinnable. That was not an unwinnable game for Eastern when Genyk was here, why is it now?
Ok, so your real point about the TEAM, as opposed to your point about a silly comment that EMU can't beat WMU, is that not competing with TU (which is only one game) is an element in a bad season. Fine, but I think the CMU and WMU games will at least be respectable. In that case, assuming no more 54-16s, and wins against the other teams I named, we have a good season.
(10-11-2011 02:24 PM)michman83 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-11-2011 11:10 AM)Bob Wickersham Wrote: [ -> ] (10-11-2011 10:43 AM)michman83 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-10-2011 08:34 AM)Bob Wickersham Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2011 12:46 PM)emu steve Wrote: [ -> ]Matter of fact I may have posted the 'win probabilities' before the season:
Howard 95%
AL State 90%
UofM 10%
PSU 10%
Akron 65%
Toledo 20%
CMU 30%
WMU 40% (I would NOT say that now).
BSU 60%
UB 60%
Kent 40%
NIU 20%
Basically, as suggest the first 4 games wee 'baked' before the season started.
Two wins and two losses.
Then hopefully Akron and then either WMU or BSU (most likely BSU)and then either UB or Kent (most like UB).
Of course these have changed some.
WMU is now a terrible opponent for Homecoming and less winnable.
Kent is probably more winnable than UB.
CMU is more winnable as is NIU but either would be a nice upset.
I'm sorry, but if you're saying the WMU homecoming game is unwinnable and the CMU game is highly unlikely for us to win...I'm sorry, that's a bad season. Beating the Akrons and Kent States and Buffalos of the world means nothing compared to beating (or at least competing with) WMU, CMU, and Toledo. Ask any EMU alum, they'll tell you the same.
No, it really does mean something to beat the Akrons, Buffalos, KSUs, and even Alabama St and Howard. It means that, if you win all those games, you've gone 5-7, whereas last year EMU was 2-10 and the year before 0-12.
I won't be satisfied without one more, and I think among CMU, BSU and NIU there could be another win out there.
But, please, be realistic. Everybody wants to win all the time, and EMU has certainly won much more of the time in certain eras, but to turn around a team with the attitude, recruiting record, reputation and institutional culture of EMU when RE took over takes time. So far, the trend is good. Give him another two years and EMU will be a winning program, with legitimate hopes to win the MAC.
I also think EMU, while it will never ever compete with UM and MSU for attention and attendance, can, with smart marketing, be something like the Lansing Lugnuts in SE Michigan -- an attractive, affordable entertainment option at a reasonable price that gets people out to the games at an average attendance of, say, 12,000 .
All in all, those are pretty attractive prospects.
I think you missed my point. Winning is nice, I'll take every one we can get. However, we have to be able to COMPETE with WMU, Toledo, and CMU. We did not compete with Toledo and someone on here basically deemed the homecoming game with WMU as "unwinnable." We should at the very least be able to compete with WMU, especially on homecoming, if not, it is a bad season. What built-in advantage does WMU have over EMU? Why would that game EVER be unwinnable. That was not an unwinnable game for Eastern when Genyk was here, why is it now?
Ok, so your real point about the TEAM, as opposed to your point about a silly comment that EMU can't beat WMU, is that not competing with TU (which is only one game) is an element in a bad season. Fine, but I think the CMU and WMU games will at least be respectable. In that case, assuming no more 54-16s, and wins against the other teams I named, we have a good season.
Oh yeah, the season to this point has gone exactly as most have preditcted in terms of wins and losses. To a man, any sane person probably expected us to beat Howard, ASU, and Akron. Only the incurably optimistic/delusional had us beating Michigan and PSU. Very few had us beating Toledo. That's why people who are beating their chests and saying everything is fine because they were able to predict 6 of the most "predictable" games in the world are missing the point. We should be as a program that can go into Toledo and not have our asses handed to us. A 54-16 loss is a setback. People can't just look at wins and losses, that doesn't tell the whole story.
Outside of the Toledo game, the season has been successful. However, we cannot go into Mt. Pleasant and lay an egg, get blown out by WMU on homecoming, finish up with a couple wins against bad teams to convince me we're making progress.
Hopefully we play much better against CMU and WMU and give ourselves a chance to win.