CSNbbs

Looks like Tenn. is anywhere between a 4.5 to 6 point favorite.

(09-05-2011 07:57 AM)rosewater Wrote: [ -> ]Looks like Tenn. is anywhere between a 4.5 to 6 point favorite.

Given the 3 point home field points, I am shocked the line opened at a mere 4.5. Don't get me wrong, I fully expect the cats to compete and have a shot at the upset. But, I believe it to be a taller order than that spread would indicate. For those wishing to bet the cats, I'd hold off a bit as the line is likely to keep moving against us.

i figured 3 for home field and then 10 pts (TD and FG) ie 13ish range.....so 4.5-6 is a LOT closer than I suspected

I was thinking 7 points or less in favor of UT.

Who cares what the spread is? The object of the game is to win--not to beat the spread.

(09-05-2011 08:50 AM)vabearcat Wrote: [ -> ]Who cares what the spread is? The object of the game is to win--not to beat the spread.

What is people like to gamble?

(09-05-2011 08:50 AM)vabearcat Wrote: [ -> ]Who cares what the spread is? The object of the game is to win--not to beat the spread.

The point spread is relevant. At the very least, it gives us a national opinion of our chance to win the game.

Home field is probably more than three points. Its not equal for each team.

At 5 I might consider giving the points and pay for my trip to Knoxville.

Tennessee isn't that damn good, people (UC may not be either). They aren't the Tee Martin/Peyton Manning Vols...I know the SEC bias is huge, but don't give them too much credit. 5-6 is probably about right.

I don't look at point spread in terms of gambling...I don't gamble. I look at it in terms of what people "in the know" think the final spread in the game will be and who will win....i know they aren't always right but I figure since money is riding on it they are doing better than just "guessing"

(09-05-2011 10:31 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't look at point spread in terms of gambling...I don't gamble. I look at it in terms of what people "in the know" think the final spread in the game will be and who will win....i know they aren't always right but I figure since money is riding on it they are doing better than just "guessing"

Not sure that is the way to look at it, since Vegas does not really set lines based on what they think the final spread in the game will be but by what will invite the most action on the game. In general Vegas lines are more a reflection of how they believe the betting public will react to the game.

It's why you have public teams that always get action on them where the line always goes an extra point or so in their favor.

(09-05-2011 11:34 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-05-2011 10:31 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't look at point spread in terms of gambling...I don't gamble. I look at it in terms of what people "in the know" think the final spread in the game will be and who will win....i know they aren't always right but I figure since money is riding on it they are doing better than just "guessing"

Not sure that is the way to look at it, since Vegas does not really set lines based on what they think the final spread in the game will be but by what will invite the most action on the game. In general Vegas lines are more a reflection of how they believe the betting public will react to the game.

It's why you have public teams that always get action on them where the line always goes an extra point or so in their favor.

hahaha well if you are correct Mark then I've been looking at this thing wrong all these years lol

oh well....ya live ya learn

Mark's right. Lines are made to create action on both sides. It's somewhat based on what is expected to happen as well though. If a line's way off from what the majority expect, the majority would bet the one side and there wouldn't be any action going the other way.

(09-05-2011 11:34 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-05-2011 10:31 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't look at point spread in terms of gambling...I don't gamble. I look at it in terms of what people "in the know" think the final spread in the game will be and who will win....i know they aren't always right but I figure since money is riding on it they are doing better than just "guessing"

Not sure that is the way to look at it, since Vegas does not really set lines based on what they think the final spread in the game will be but by what will invite the most action on the game. In general Vegas lines are more a reflection of how they believe the betting public will react to the game.

It's why you have public teams that always get action on them where the line always goes an extra point or so in their favor.

Its not nearly that simple. There are a lot of extremely smart people with huge bank rolls out there that pound lines if Vegas screws up. The closing line is the best publicly avalable tool available in terms of predicting outcomes of a game.

(09-05-2011 11:34 AM)bearcatmark Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-05-2011 10:31 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote: [ -> ]I don't look at point spread in terms of gambling...I don't gamble. I look at it in terms of what people "in the know" think the final spread in the game will be and who will win....i know they aren't always right but I figure since money is riding on it they are doing better than just "guessing"

Not sure that is the way to look at it, since Vegas does not really set lines based on what they think the final spread in the game will be but by what will invite the most action on the game. In general Vegas lines are more a reflection of how they believe the betting public will react to the game.

It's why you have public teams that always get action on them where the line always goes an extra point or so in their favor.

Maybe I'm thinking of this wrong, but if that was the case wouldn't that crush Vegas many times if they were just looking to invite bets. I would think the national perception is that UT will win by 7 plus, so plenty of Vol fans, or gamblers, will jump all over a 4.5 line and Vegas will lose plenty of money if the Vols cover. Right?

Then again I bet games for about two weeks a couple years ago and that was all I needed to give up asap.

I don't know.....all of this is foriegn to me. I thought the lines were based on what "informed" people thought would happen in the game to give the casual fan an idea of what the spread of the final score would be....what do I know.
I just want to win!

Lines are initially set where the oddsmakers think they will get 50% of the action on each side coming out of the gate and the line follows the money.

(09-05-2011 07:51 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]Lines are initially set where the oddsmakers think they will get 50% of the action on each side coming out of the gate and the line follows the money.

Exactly. On game day you can have a good idea on how people think the game will play out, but not the initial lines.

For example, Ohio State will almost always be a favorite to start because they know Ohio State fans bet on OSU against any opponent. That doesn't mean that by game day the spread doesn't move the other way.

(09-05-2011 08:05 PM)mlb Wrote: [ -> ]

(09-05-2011 07:51 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]Lines are initially set where the oddsmakers think they will get 50% of the action on each side coming out of the gate and the line follows the money.

Exactly. On game day you can have a good idea on how people think the game will play out, but not the initial lines.

For example, Ohio State will almost always be a favorite to start because they know Ohio State fans bet on OSU against any opponent. That doesn't mean that by game day the spread doesn't move the other way.

If it was that simple, books would lose their ass on big time players with huge bank rolls. Books don't worry about random joe fan that bets $50 on a game. They worry about real money. If you don't believe me, pay attention to how well they do at predicting outcomes over a large sample. There isn't a better predicting tool out there.

Its definitely true that the closing line is more accurate than the opening line, but there is a lot at stake. Books aren't nearly as casual as you suggest with the opening line.