From our favorite, intrepid Twittorist on conference realignment, gswaim.
Doom and gloom for BE alert! If you are gentle, move on to another thread.: ) I wonder what the ACC/BE/BigXII commissioners are going to talk about this week.
Borrowed from the Aggie Scout page. Highlights:
@white_jones33 Sounds like UT considering a move west, but even though a great source I'll believe it when I see it!!
GSwaim BigTime TV/Radio Bottom line: when the so-called super conferences happen, an independent will have no shot at a national title. #UT, #NDU & #BYU know this.
@AbigailOgle Absolutely...four super conferences, with between 16-20 teams per conference. Don't expect the #Big12 and Big East to survive.
@ScKing Big12 teams to Pac12 and BigEast teams to ACC...possibly in bulk.
Link
I don't understand the 4-18 or 4-20 scenarios. 5-14 makes the most sense with only 70 teams involved. 4-18 is 72 and 4-20 is 80 teams. Hell 6-12 is the same amount of teams as 4-18. I just think conferences would make more money per team via tv and bowl revenue sharing in smaller leagues. And besides a 4-20 is essentially a 8-10. Over a 10-20 year period you'll start to see these megaconferences start to split.
(08-17-2011 06:09 PM)Joey_Niklas Wrote: [ -> ]I don't understand the 4-18 or 4-20 scenarios. 5-14 makes the most sense with only 70 teams involved. 4-18 is 72 and 4-20 is 80 teams. Hell 6-12 is the same amount of teams as 4-18. I just think conferences would make more money per team via tv and bowl revenue sharing in smaller leagues. And besides a 4-20 is essentially a 8-10. Over a 10-20 year period you'll start to see these megaconferences start to split.
My theory is "small steps on the way to big destinations". It'll take a while to get to 16 team conferences. But we are getting close to 14 team conferences.
Its like the amount of time it took all the conferences to just get to 12.
The SEC and ACC are the two closest to to going to 14. The B1G and PAC are probably happy with their BRAND NEW 12 team formats for the time being and won't expand for another 5-10 years after giving those formats a good spin.
(08-17-2011 06:13 PM)KnightTower Wrote: [ -> ] (08-17-2011 06:09 PM)Joey_Niklas Wrote: [ -> ]I don't understand the 4-18 or 4-20 scenarios. 5-14 makes the most sense with only 70 teams involved. 4-18 is 72 and 4-20 is 80 teams. Hell 6-12 is the same amount of teams as 4-18. I just think conferences would make more money per team via tv and bowl revenue sharing in smaller leagues. And besides a 4-20 is essentially a 8-10. Over a 10-20 year period you'll start to see these megaconferences start to split.
My theory is "small steps on the way to big destinations". It'll take a while to get to 16 team conferences. But we are getting close to 14 team conferences.
Its like the amount of time it took all the conferences to just get to 12.
The SEC and ACC are the two closest to to going to 14. The B1G and PAC are probably happy with their BRAND NEW 12 team formats for the time being and won't expand for another 5-10 years after giving those formats a good spin.
I agree that this is going to be a long process. All I'm saying is once you get past 16 for example, conferences will be adding nonAQ's. And nonAQ's wouldn't bring in enough value and conferences would be losing money bringing them in. At that point we could see Troy St being added; know what I mean. Not a knock against Troy or anything. Fact is; if Pitt isn't adding enough to the Big 10, how could a Buffalo- for example.
I don't see logic in 16. I can see where 14 and 9 games doesn't change much...by the time you get to 16 I think you need to go all the way to 20-24 and have four divisions and structure a play-in game to your championship. Have as many as 10 conference games.
My pick would be this:
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Mississippi
Mississippi State
LSU
Vanderbilt
Alabama
Auburn
Tennessee
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Miami
Virginia
GT
VT
UNC
Duke
Kentucky
Maryland
NC State
Clemson
FSU
(WVU or L'ville or Oklahoma/Texas/Missouri in the west)
I don't expect it to happen though, but it would be my ideal conference.
Swaim just throws poop at the wall.
I see 5-16, with some of the non BCS almost ready schools making the list.
(08-17-2011 06:41 PM)dgrace4cards Wrote: [ -> ]I see 5-16, with some of the non BCS almost ready schools making the list.
Yea... 5-16 makes more sense than 4-20.
(08-17-2011 06:42 PM)Joey_Niklas Wrote: [ -> ] (08-17-2011 06:41 PM)dgrace4cards Wrote: [ -> ]I see 5-16, with some of the non BCS almost ready schools making the list.
Yea... 5-16 makes more sense than 4-20.
I would rather see 6-16 as 96 schools would be among the "in" crowd.
(08-17-2011 06:41 PM)dgrace4cards Wrote: [ -> ]I see 5-16, with some of the non BCS almost ready schools making the list.
that's probably the best anyone could hope for if/when it comes to that down the road. you'd get the least blow back for it. 80 schools. Too bad for me Fresno would still be on the outside since there's only 1 western BCS conf. If we were in NY or NC or FL we could be in the made over BE.
(08-17-2011 06:34 PM)Sammy11 Wrote: [ -> ]Swaim just throws poop at the wall.
Its sad when some call people like Greg Swaim an "insider".
For example:
Pac 16 current Pac 12 + Texas, OKST, OK, Texas Tech
SEC + A&M, FSU, Va Tech, WVU
B1G + Mizzou, Cuse, UConn, Rutgers
ACC+ Pitt, Louisville, USF, UCF, Cincinnati, TCU
Leftovers:
Kansas, K. State, Iowa St , Baylor + current non AQ...
What initiative would it be for the Big 4 to expand at this point. I guess the SEC and B1G could raid the ACC some more to get to 18 and then 20. But then it would be a struggle for the ACC to get back to at least 16. And I don't see many options out west for the Pac 16 to get to 20.
(08-17-2011 06:34 PM)Sammy11 Wrote: [ -> ]Swaim just throws poop at the wall.
I think you're insulting poop thrown at walls when you compare it Swaim's info.
(08-17-2011 06:44 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote: [ -> ] (08-17-2011 06:41 PM)dgrace4cards Wrote: [ -> ]I see 5-16, with some of the non BCS almost ready schools making the list.
that's probably the best anyone could hope for if/when it comes to that down the road. you'd get the least blow back for it. 80 schools. Too bad for me Fresno would still be on the outside since there's only 1 western BCS conf. If we were in NY or NC or FL we could be in the made over BE.
If Fresno were just located in say Missouri you'd have been in the Big East by now.
Why do people keep quoting the same tweeters who have no credibility? Didn't they say BYU to the Pac-12? Really?
(08-17-2011 07:27 PM)CatsClaw Wrote: [ -> ]Why do people keep quoting the same tweeters who have no credibility? Didn't they say BYU to the Pac-12? Really?
(08-17-2011 07:27 PM)CatsClaw Wrote: [ -> ]Why do people keep quoting the same tweeters who have no credibility? Didn't they say BYU to the Pac-12? Really?
Because some people LOVE to believe the BE is doomed
(08-17-2011 06:51 PM)Joey_Niklas Wrote: [ -> ]For example:
Pac 16 current Pac 12 + Texas, OKST, OK, Texas Tech
SEC + A&M, FSU, Va Tech, WVU
B1G + Mizzou, Cuse, UConn, Rutgers
ACC+ Pitt, Louisville, USF, UCF, Cincinnati, TCU
Leftovers:
Kansas, K. State, Iowa St , Baylor + current non AQ...
What initiative would it be for the Big 4 to expand at this point. I guess the SEC and B1G could raid the ACC some more to get to 18 and then 20. But then it would be a struggle for the ACC to get back to at least 16. And I don't see many options out west for the Pac 16 to get to 20.
Absolutely no way does UCF get picked over Kansas or Kansas State.
(And this isnt a dig against UCF)
(08-17-2011 08:04 PM)dogma Wrote: [ -> ] (08-17-2011 06:51 PM)Joey_Niklas Wrote: [ -> ]For example:
Pac 16 current Pac 12 + Texas, OKST, OK, Texas Tech
SEC + A&M, FSU, Va Tech, WVU
B1G + Mizzou, Cuse, UConn, Rutgers
ACC+ Pitt, Louisville, USF, UCF, Cincinnati, TCU
Leftovers:
Kansas, K. State, Iowa St , Baylor + current non AQ...
What initiative would it be for the Big 4 to expand at this point. I guess the SEC and B1G could raid the ACC some more to get to 18 and then 20. But then it would be a struggle for the ACC to get back to at least 16. And I don't see many options out west for the Pac 16 to get to 20.
Absolutely no way does UCF get picked over Kansas or Kansas State.
(And this isnt a dig against UCF)
It was just an example and I agree with you. I just threw that together in less than 5 minutes.
What I don't get about the "Mega-Conferences" is it really stinks for the fans. I get what it would do for TV deals....but who really wants to be in a 20 team conference? How often are you really even going to see some of these teams....or how can real rivalries be created outside the group in your little division or Pod.