08-15-2011, 07:51 PM
Spoke with a member of the Louisville administration. Not Tom Jurich, but somebody very high up. Met him at a charity event this evening and had a chance to chat it up a bit. Very entertaining guy and willing to offer up a lot of information about the Big East.
- Louisville is committed to the Big East. They would not leave the Big East for the ACC or the Big 12. In Louisville’s eyes the Big East gives them the best exposure in the largest markets, and they expect their upcoming payday to be very good. They also believe there are enough schools with serious clout (eh em, Syracuse and Uconn) who feel the same way. There is also a lot of bad blood and pride among some of the old school Big East/ACC schools when it comes to conference affiliation. Syracuse and Uconn think they are strong enough conference cornerstone schools to hold together a notheast focused conference, so the Big East will always have a spot.
- He does not expect any SEC expansion to have a major negative impact on the Big East. If Texas A&M goes to the SEC the Big 12 will just probably replace them with a team like BYU or Houston. He said Louisville was not a contender for SEC expansion because of Kentucky, and the only Big East team that could possibly go to the SEC would be West Virginia, but “the Big East is bigger than any single team.” He does not see SEC expansion as having a ripple effect that would cause a multiple team exodus from the conference. He does think that the Big 12 has stability issues and if they cannot figure them out some of them may end up in our conference (more on this later).
- I asked him why the football schools do not just split from the basketball only schools, something I think should be done. He said there was no way, and it would not be a good thing. I brought up that the football side has most of the better baketball, but he told me that was not the issue. The basketball schools get the football schools into major markets. This makes them worth more as a group than if they broke apart. I asked him if the hybrid format was holding the football schools back and he laughed a bit saying that is nonsense. They just added TCU and will add more teams when/if the right teams are available. The basketball schools are not holding anything back. I asked him about whether the basketball schools made managing the conference the conference more difficult and again he said that was nonsense and not something that any football school would agree happens in practice. Basketball is great, football operates the same whether we are affiliated with the basketball schools or not, and Olympic sports scheduling is actually easier with the additional options. When I said that “DePaul sucks” he laughed and said “but Louisville basketball has more television coverage in Chicago now than we ever had.” Teams do not have to “capture” the market, they just have to “get us in” the market.
- I asked if we could see the Big East “trim some fat” and cut a couple teams. He laughed a bit at this one and said it wasn’t going to happen. I pushed him on this one because I think that we should drop Seton Hall, Providence and DePaul. He told me that “Providence and DePaul are investing in athletics.” I pushed him a bit on Seton Hall and was told, “all the schools know they have to invest in athletics at a competitive level” and chuckled a bit with this one. He wouldn’t really give me a straight answer on Seton Hall and kept laughing and saying no team was in any
“immediate danger” and the conference was not looking to drop teams right now. I think Seton Hall might be put on the clock to get their act together, but nobody is saying anything publicly.
- I asked about Notre Dame’s situation. He said Notre Dame was an immensely powerful school in the BCS system, and their support and affiliation is tremendously important and valuable. Notre Dame could go to any conference they want, yet they want to be in the Big East for their affiliated sports. They are one of the schools most bullish on the longterm future of the Big East and their commitment to the conference is huge for everyone.
- The expansion candidates that the Big East really wants are the Kansas pair (as teams 11 and 12). More for Kansas, but Kansas State would be a requirement and they would be a welcome addition. The Big East is not a “conference killer” and there will be no pre-emptive “poaching.” There is no need to rush in and poach teams, but the time might come when these teams are looking for a new home, and it might be soon. I asked about the 2012 tv contract deadline and was told that if the teams became available before then, great. If not, the per team value of the tv contract should still be as high with or without those teams.
- If Missouri became available then they would also be an option, but he thinks Missouri will end up being one of the schools that leaves to the SEC. If Missouri did become available, it might pave the way for a school like UCF as schools 13 and 14. He also said that he hopes the Big 12 survives because more strong conferences is a good thing for the health of college sports.
- No ACC school is going to end up in the Big East. They make enough money and have a strong academic alliance and have a lot of history together. Even if the Big East gets a bigger tv contract it is not going to be big enough to bring any ACC team over. Everyone knows that BC regrets their decision behind closed doors, but they are cashing their checks and will not admit they were wrong in public.
- Villanova is going to be added to the football side. In April they were asked to give a better and more clear plan and right now they “are doing everything right.” I am not a huge fan of Nova being added, but he told me that Villanova is a definite yes among the majority of football schools including Louisville, and the schools that voted no in April are not really all that against Nova they just want to make sure that it is done right. He made me feel sort of optimistic he said that they will be playing in a 32,000 seat waterfront stadium that is gorgeous and are working on playing a late season game or two at the Phillies park. That is better than an 18,000 seat stadium and is adequate in my opinion. He said that Villanova was a very valuable all sports member of the conference and an “ESPN darling” in the lucrative New York through DC regions. What Villanova brings to the conference as a whole is far too valuable to pass on them.
- The C-USA schools are pretty much off the table. Only UCF has a chance, and that would require a few things happening first. The concern with the C-USA schools is not their ability to compete or pack the fans, but their lack of national recognition and credibility. I mentioned that some of the C-USA schools are bringing more fans than Big East schools. He said that a strong local fan base is nice, but does not really mean as much as I would think from a tv perspective. A school that has a strong immediate fan base does not necessarily have a lot of tv appeal if casual viewers have no familiarity with their “name brand.” A lot of these schools are commuter schools with a large local fan base, so it is easy for their fans to attend games, but outside of 100 miles of campus not many people are going to care about their games. Casual viewers in places like DC, NY, Philadelphia, Chicago are more important than a passionate base in a rural area that does not capture a state. He said Louisville and Cincinnati were different because their basketball brand lifted their athletic brand so much that we had the national name recognition. People have heard of Louisville, Cincinnati, Uconn, Villanova, Pitt, West Virginia, etc… so they would be more likely to keep the channel on one of their football games even if they do not follow their football teams. The same cannot be said for most of C-USA, and that’s their real problem.
- He said he thought the Super Conferences of 4 sixteen team conferences was a bit of an exageration. He thinks the Big 12 has a chance of surviving, but if they do fall apart then it will likely be 5 BCS conferences. He doesn’t see any of them merging and leaving other members on the side of the road just for convenience. He said the Super Conference makes for good internet gossip, but practically speaking it would take way too much to happen. He also said the NCAA basketball tournament is never going to downsize, so the Super Conferences splitting away from the NCAA tournament is not something that would ever really happen.
- He would not throw any specific schools under the bus, but did say that some schools offereing themselves up to the Big 10 last year (so I presume he meant Pitt and Rutgers) was really bad internally and that those schools lost a lot of clout in the conference. The wounds are healed but their desire to go to the Big 10 was not viewed favorably by the schools that view themselves as trying to make the Big East the top conference and not wanting to jump.
Hope you like the information. I definitely don’t agree with it all, but what can you do? Overall I really like the future of the conference.
- Louisville is committed to the Big East. They would not leave the Big East for the ACC or the Big 12. In Louisville’s eyes the Big East gives them the best exposure in the largest markets, and they expect their upcoming payday to be very good. They also believe there are enough schools with serious clout (eh em, Syracuse and Uconn) who feel the same way. There is also a lot of bad blood and pride among some of the old school Big East/ACC schools when it comes to conference affiliation. Syracuse and Uconn think they are strong enough conference cornerstone schools to hold together a notheast focused conference, so the Big East will always have a spot.
- He does not expect any SEC expansion to have a major negative impact on the Big East. If Texas A&M goes to the SEC the Big 12 will just probably replace them with a team like BYU or Houston. He said Louisville was not a contender for SEC expansion because of Kentucky, and the only Big East team that could possibly go to the SEC would be West Virginia, but “the Big East is bigger than any single team.” He does not see SEC expansion as having a ripple effect that would cause a multiple team exodus from the conference. He does think that the Big 12 has stability issues and if they cannot figure them out some of them may end up in our conference (more on this later).
- I asked him why the football schools do not just split from the basketball only schools, something I think should be done. He said there was no way, and it would not be a good thing. I brought up that the football side has most of the better baketball, but he told me that was not the issue. The basketball schools get the football schools into major markets. This makes them worth more as a group than if they broke apart. I asked him if the hybrid format was holding the football schools back and he laughed a bit saying that is nonsense. They just added TCU and will add more teams when/if the right teams are available. The basketball schools are not holding anything back. I asked him about whether the basketball schools made managing the conference the conference more difficult and again he said that was nonsense and not something that any football school would agree happens in practice. Basketball is great, football operates the same whether we are affiliated with the basketball schools or not, and Olympic sports scheduling is actually easier with the additional options. When I said that “DePaul sucks” he laughed and said “but Louisville basketball has more television coverage in Chicago now than we ever had.” Teams do not have to “capture” the market, they just have to “get us in” the market.
- I asked if we could see the Big East “trim some fat” and cut a couple teams. He laughed a bit at this one and said it wasn’t going to happen. I pushed him on this one because I think that we should drop Seton Hall, Providence and DePaul. He told me that “Providence and DePaul are investing in athletics.” I pushed him a bit on Seton Hall and was told, “all the schools know they have to invest in athletics at a competitive level” and chuckled a bit with this one. He wouldn’t really give me a straight answer on Seton Hall and kept laughing and saying no team was in any
“immediate danger” and the conference was not looking to drop teams right now. I think Seton Hall might be put on the clock to get their act together, but nobody is saying anything publicly.
- I asked about Notre Dame’s situation. He said Notre Dame was an immensely powerful school in the BCS system, and their support and affiliation is tremendously important and valuable. Notre Dame could go to any conference they want, yet they want to be in the Big East for their affiliated sports. They are one of the schools most bullish on the longterm future of the Big East and their commitment to the conference is huge for everyone.
- The expansion candidates that the Big East really wants are the Kansas pair (as teams 11 and 12). More for Kansas, but Kansas State would be a requirement and they would be a welcome addition. The Big East is not a “conference killer” and there will be no pre-emptive “poaching.” There is no need to rush in and poach teams, but the time might come when these teams are looking for a new home, and it might be soon. I asked about the 2012 tv contract deadline and was told that if the teams became available before then, great. If not, the per team value of the tv contract should still be as high with or without those teams.
- If Missouri became available then they would also be an option, but he thinks Missouri will end up being one of the schools that leaves to the SEC. If Missouri did become available, it might pave the way for a school like UCF as schools 13 and 14. He also said that he hopes the Big 12 survives because more strong conferences is a good thing for the health of college sports.
- No ACC school is going to end up in the Big East. They make enough money and have a strong academic alliance and have a lot of history together. Even if the Big East gets a bigger tv contract it is not going to be big enough to bring any ACC team over. Everyone knows that BC regrets their decision behind closed doors, but they are cashing their checks and will not admit they were wrong in public.
- Villanova is going to be added to the football side. In April they were asked to give a better and more clear plan and right now they “are doing everything right.” I am not a huge fan of Nova being added, but he told me that Villanova is a definite yes among the majority of football schools including Louisville, and the schools that voted no in April are not really all that against Nova they just want to make sure that it is done right. He made me feel sort of optimistic he said that they will be playing in a 32,000 seat waterfront stadium that is gorgeous and are working on playing a late season game or two at the Phillies park. That is better than an 18,000 seat stadium and is adequate in my opinion. He said that Villanova was a very valuable all sports member of the conference and an “ESPN darling” in the lucrative New York through DC regions. What Villanova brings to the conference as a whole is far too valuable to pass on them.
- The C-USA schools are pretty much off the table. Only UCF has a chance, and that would require a few things happening first. The concern with the C-USA schools is not their ability to compete or pack the fans, but their lack of national recognition and credibility. I mentioned that some of the C-USA schools are bringing more fans than Big East schools. He said that a strong local fan base is nice, but does not really mean as much as I would think from a tv perspective. A school that has a strong immediate fan base does not necessarily have a lot of tv appeal if casual viewers have no familiarity with their “name brand.” A lot of these schools are commuter schools with a large local fan base, so it is easy for their fans to attend games, but outside of 100 miles of campus not many people are going to care about their games. Casual viewers in places like DC, NY, Philadelphia, Chicago are more important than a passionate base in a rural area that does not capture a state. He said Louisville and Cincinnati were different because their basketball brand lifted their athletic brand so much that we had the national name recognition. People have heard of Louisville, Cincinnati, Uconn, Villanova, Pitt, West Virginia, etc… so they would be more likely to keep the channel on one of their football games even if they do not follow their football teams. The same cannot be said for most of C-USA, and that’s their real problem.
- He said he thought the Super Conferences of 4 sixteen team conferences was a bit of an exageration. He thinks the Big 12 has a chance of surviving, but if they do fall apart then it will likely be 5 BCS conferences. He doesn’t see any of them merging and leaving other members on the side of the road just for convenience. He said the Super Conference makes for good internet gossip, but practically speaking it would take way too much to happen. He also said the NCAA basketball tournament is never going to downsize, so the Super Conferences splitting away from the NCAA tournament is not something that would ever really happen.
- He would not throw any specific schools under the bus, but did say that some schools offereing themselves up to the Big 10 last year (so I presume he meant Pitt and Rutgers) was really bad internally and that those schools lost a lot of clout in the conference. The wounds are healed but their desire to go to the Big 10 was not viewed favorably by the schools that view themselves as trying to make the Big East the top conference and not wanting to jump.
Hope you like the information. I definitely don’t agree with it all, but what can you do? Overall I really like the future of the conference.
