CSNbbs

... how many could make it to the Sweet 16?

The Big East put 11 teams into the dance, but 9 were already gone by the end of the 2nd round. (not counting the play-in). So only 2 have made it to the Sweet 16, and at least one was guaranteed as two BE teams met in the round of 32. If the Big Least can get 2/11 to win 2 games in a row, could the MAC at least get 1/11?

One important note to consider, the Big East teams have it easier than MAC teams would traditionally as they have the higher seeds, which means they would play the lower seeds. Historically it has been the converse for the MAC. Here's the 11 BE teams and their seeds-

(1) Pitt
(2) ND
(3) UConn
(3) Cuse
(4) L'Ville
(5) WVU
(6) UC
(6) Gtown
(6) St. Johns
(9) Nova
(11) Marquette

If you replace those teams with MAC teams at the same seeds you have these match ups-

(1) Kent State vs. (16) UNC- Ashville
(2) Akron vs. (15) *Akron equivilant
(3) Western Mich vs. (14) Bucknell
(3) Miami vs. (14) Indiana State
(4) OHIO vs. (13) Morehead
(5) Ball St. vs. (12) Clemson
(6) Buffalo vs. (11) Missouri
(6) Central Mich vs. (11) VCU
(6) BGSU vs. (11) Gonzaga
(9) Eastern Mich vs. (8) George Mason
(11) NIU vs. (6) Xavier

The Big East was 7-4 after round 1, the question then is, how many of these games could the MAC win- 3? 4? 5? Assuming they don't even do as well as the BE they would still likely have multiple teams into the round of 32. The BE managed to only get 2 teams to the Sweet 16, against this schedule could the MAC be just half as good and get 1?

This isn't to suggest that the MAC is as good as the Big East, but I am suggesting that the way the tournament is set up when you have 11 teams from 1 conference in a tourney, and most of them are playing the lower seeded teams, then of course they're going to have SOME success. Put one BE team in the tourney at a 13-15 seed every year and lets see how much success they have.

What, no Toledo?

oops---see next post

(03-21-2011 08:09 PM)perimeterpost Wrote: [ -> ]... how many could make it to the Sweet 16?

Well the MAC put 4 teams in the WNIT and 2 are in the sweet 16.

we'll find out when they expand tourn to 324

I heard an interesting angle on this on the radio. The Big East had 11 of 68 slots = 16.2% of the teams in the Dance. Currently they have 2 of 16 teams remaining = 12.5%. Not that much less of the original representation. Add to that that 2 of the games were BE vs BE.

so the rest of the country had 83.% percent of the field. 87.5% of remaining teams. with 4 play in games not involving the big east.

and the rest of the field didnt have the super hype that the big east had

just sayin lol

(03-21-2011 11:04 PM)CMUprof Wrote: [ -> ]I heard an interesting angle on this on the radio. The Big East had 11 of 68 slots = 16.2% of the teams in the Dance. Currently they have 2 of 16 teams remaining = 12.5%. Not that much less of the original representation. Add to that that 2 of the games were BE vs BE.

That would be someone on ESPN spinning like a dervish to justify their season long slurping of the Big East. 9 of the top 24 seeds are from your conference and 1 of those 9 gets out by beating another Big East team. Considering how piss-poor the bubble was, maybe they still deserved 11 (though I think if you can't finish in the top half of your conference- no at large bid), but they weren't half of the best teams all year. Move those suckers down a seeding line or two.

(03-21-2011 11:04 PM)CMUprof Wrote: [ -> ]I heard an interesting angle on this on the radio. The Big East had 11 of 68 slots = 16.2% of the teams in the Dance. Currently they have 2 of 16 teams remaining = 12.5%. Not that much less of the original representation. Add to that that 2 of the games were BE vs BE.

The flaw in that model is that it doesn't take into account seeding. 9 of the 11 BE teams received seeds of 6 or better. That means that 9 of the 11 BE teams played double digit seeds. They were expected statistically to have 9 of 32 teams left after Friday (28%) and 5 of 16 at this point (31%).

One of the overlooked problems with the system is how the committee continually underseeds the mid-major teams. Mids never have a gimme game. And when a good mid-major team comes along they get the 8 seed if they are very good meaning they get the #1 seed in round 2. Or if they are top 10 they get the #4 seed (see Gonzaga a few years back).

Easy now. I'm no BE apologist, just pointing out a stat. FWIW, I don't think the conf is as good as ESPN is promoting but I also don't think they are as bad as people like to claim. They had 10 teams that were hard to argue against getting in. Marquette was the only one that was really questioned and look at where they are now.

(03-21-2011 11:04 PM)CMUprof Wrote: [ -> ]I heard an interesting angle on this on the radio. The Big East had 11 of 68 slots = 16.2% of the teams in the Dance. Currently they have 2 of 16 teams remaining = 12.5%. Not that much less of the original representation. Add to that that 2 of the games were BE vs BE.

...and the ACC which had a down year had 5.8% of the teams in the Big Dance and now has 18.7% of the teams in the Sweet 16. I am so tired of the Big Least spin.

Feel free to mix in a few non-conference road games. The Big East plays a weak non-conference schedule loaded up with home cupcakes to have a 16-0 record heading into conference play. The only "tough" opponents that they play are conference games, and they scream look at how great our conference is. The tournament comes around and the Big East is getting smoked.....

(03-22-2011 01:36 PM)bigjdotcom01 Wrote: [ -> ]...and the ACC which had a down year had 5.8% of the teams in the Big Dance and now has 18.7% of the teams in the Sweet 16. I am so tired of the Big Least spin.

Feel free to mix in a few non-conference road games. The Big East plays a weak non-conference schedule loaded up with home cupcakes to have a 16-0 record heading into conference play. The only "tough" opponents that they play are conference games, and they scream look at how great our conference is. The tournament comes around and the Big East is getting smoked.....

Villanova is the perfect example of that. Their "road" games OOC were two games in Philly (Penn & LaSalle) and one game across the river in NJ (Monmouth). Their "neutral" site games were both in MSG against UCLA (W) and Tennessee (L). They went 5-11 over their last 16 games and somehow still got in. Syracuse does the same thing nearly every year. The BE knows how to play the RPI game.

Syracuse non-conference schedule:
Northern Iowa
Canisius
Detroit
William & Mary
Michigan (Atlantic City)
Georgia Tech (Atlantic City)
Cornell
North Carolina State
Michigan State (MSG)
Colgate
Iona
Morgan State
Drexel

They left NY State just twice to play in the Legends Classic where they faced NCAA tournament participant Michigan. They also played NCAA participant Michigan State at MSG in the Jimmy V Classic. But MSG is almost a home court for SU with a ton on NYC alumni.

The rest of those opponents are not very impressive. Northern Iowa finished 4th in the Missouri Valley and went to the CIT. Iona finished second in the MAAC and is still alive (playing UB) in the CIT. Drexel finished fifth in the CAA and went 21-10.

I'd argue that if the MAC got 11 teams in with the same seeds as the BE, it would get two in the Sweet 16. I'd argue that about 10 conferences. Personally, I think that the Big East is the most over-hyped conference in sports. I don't care about the "wearing each other down theory". If you have 11 teams in a 68-team field, you need to get more than 2 to the Sweet 16.