CSNbbs

Actually dropped because of yesterday's games.

Dropped from #33 to 35 in the RPI. Bit surprised that Marquette jumped 17 spots all the way up to #51 with the win at Uconn while UC only jumped 4 spots with the win at Georgetown.

Dropped from #83 to 87 in SOS last night.

Histograms keep looking up, though. Now up above having an occurance of 500 > from 30 through 39 in end of year forecast. Over 60% of the 10,000 simulations yesterday placed UC between 30 and 39 on Selection Sunday.






Live-Rpi's seed projector graph...based on end of season projections, have UC up to a 5 seed. As you can see, the highest so far after being between 6-8 since New Years.



BTW: the difference between their projections and guys like Lunardi's is that they project based on past performance and future outcome projections of not only your team but your team's opponents.

Marquette's win percentage was killing them so a road victory helps them more than it does us. One thing killing the Cats is those awful 200+ RPI squads. (Marquette has a bunch of those teams too).

I would love of the selection committee used RPI, Sagarin, and Pomeroy to create computer index. Using only one leaves room for gaming the system becuase you can always play a bunch of teams with good records out of weaker leagues and a few medicore ones on the road which is how you work the RPI in your advantage.

Those +200 RPI opponents were already factored in before GT when UC was sitting at #39. Same with Marquette. Its the DeCoursey argument. Why talk SOS when its already built into the RPI? Talking about the same thing twice.

I agree, I don't understand why people mention SOS (Opponent's Winning Percentage) when its part of the RPI. I was just saying that UC's non-conference SOS is holding them back from making a real large jump while Marquette winning percentage was thier anchor. Playing UConn, Marquette and GT again will help SOS and Opponent's SOS which makes up another quarter of the formula. It also helps when some of those 200+ teams win a game or two.

Take out the two DePaul games that we had no control over and we have 7 wins against the 200+ range. Texas, Texas A&M, and Missouri each have 6, all from their OOC schedule. How come there is never a mention of those teams padding their win totals? They play in a weaker overall conference too.

A 5 seed in Live-RPI seems a little unrealistic unless we finish at least 2-1. I think a 6 seed is realizable although I'll take anything right now!

They have UC beating Uconn and Georgetown but losing to Marquette.

(02-25-2011 03:16 PM)bcat80 Wrote: [ -> ]A 5 seed in Live-RPI seems a little unrealistic unless we finish at least 2-1. I think a 6 seed is realizable although I'll take anything right now!

I'd much rather get a 6 seed than the dreaded 5/12 matchup...

(02-25-2011 03:36 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]They have UC beating Uconn and Georgetown but losing to Marquette.

Since it has worked so far predicting "no more wins for us" I will continue to say that.

However, your statement appears to be a possibility. Marquette looked pretty tough last night of what I watched of them.

But could somebody grab a defensive rebound in that game? I think most of the players had double doubles because nobody could squeeze the ball on the defensive end for either team...

(02-25-2011 04:27 PM)cincy11 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-25-2011 03:16 PM)bcat80 Wrote: [ -> ]A 5 seed in Live-RPI seems a little unrealistic unless we finish at least 2-1. I think a 6 seed is realizable although I'll take anything right now!

I'd much rather get a 6 seed than the dreaded 5/12 matchup...

You would prefer a 6/11 than a 5/12?

(02-25-2011 04:30 PM)ctipton Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-25-2011 04:27 PM)cincy11 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-25-2011 03:16 PM)bcat80 Wrote: [ -> ]A 5 seed in Live-RPI seems a little unrealistic unless we finish at least 2-1. I think a 6 seed is realizable although I'll take anything right now!

I'd much rather get a 6 seed than the dreaded 5/12 matchup...

You would prefer a 6/11 than a 5/12?

Yep, I'd take the 6 seed over the 5 any day.

There are some advantages to having a 6 than a 5.

6 seed advantage.
1. Knowing who you play in the first round, more time to prepare (assuming two 12 seeds are playing in game winners).
2. Avoiding the 1 seed until the regional final.
3. Playing a possible mid major that really isn't that great or an average major conference team.

5 seed advantage.
1. Playing a tired team that had to play in the play in game.
2. Playing a possible mid major that really isn't that great or an average major conference team.

Top 4 seeds should get geographic preference, but after that seeds 5 through 12 usually are playing a real team in the first round.

(02-25-2011 03:36 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]They have UC beating Uconn and Georgetown but losing to Marquette.

My gut says we lose to UConn and Marquette, but beat G-Town. Hope I'm wrong.

A win against UConn on Sunday and I'll feel extremely confident in our NCAA hopes.

(02-25-2011 03:16 PM)bcat80 Wrote: [ -> ]A 5 seed in Live-RPI seems a little unrealistic unless we finish at least 2-1. I think a 6 seed is realizable although I'll take anything right now!

Ignore the SOS and RPI and look at the Top 50 teams and compare them based solely on good wins, road wins, and bad losses. If you do this UC is at least a 5-seed and probably ranked about 15th in the nation.

I just don't get the OOC SOS arguement. So beating Wisconsin-Milwaukee (#150 RPI) by 20 is dramatically better than beating Prarie View (#250 RPI) by 30???? Either way its gonna be a win. Apparantely its a huge difference for most people

Exactly. Maybe they should look at the median RPI or something. Or look at p25. I'd bet the p25 of our SOS RPI is Top 30

(02-25-2011 04:30 PM)ctipton Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-25-2011 04:27 PM)cincy11 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-25-2011 03:16 PM)bcat80 Wrote: [ -> ]A 5 seed in Live-RPI seems a little unrealistic unless we finish at least 2-1. I think a 6 seed is realizable although I'll take anything right now!

I'd much rather get a 6 seed than the dreaded 5/12 matchup...

You would prefer a 6/11 than a 5/12?

5/12 has been disproportionately full of upsets. Some of it is perception, but I do remember seeing data that supports it.

Hmmm, where the heck was that?

(02-25-2011 04:46 PM)bearcatlawjd Wrote: [ -> ]There are some advantages to having a 6 than a 5.

6 seed advantage.
1. Knowing who you play in the first round, more time to prepare (assuming two 12 seeds are playing in game winners).
2. Avoiding the 1 seed until the regional final.
3. Playing a possible mid major that really isn't that great or an average major conference team.

5 seed advantage.
1. Playing a tired team that had to play in the play in game.
2. Playing a possible mid major that really isn't that great or an average major conference team.

Top 4 seeds should get geographic preference, but after that seeds 5 through 12 usually are playing a real team in the first round.

I think he was saying he wouldn't want a 5 seed in the NCAA's, not the BET.

(02-25-2011 06:36 PM)Eastside_J Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-25-2011 04:30 PM)ctipton Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-25-2011 04:27 PM)cincy11 Wrote: [ -> ]

(02-25-2011 03:16 PM)bcat80 Wrote: [ -> ]A 5 seed in Live-RPI seems a little unrealistic unless we finish at least 2-1. I think a 6 seed is realizable although I'll take anything right now!

I'd much rather get a 6 seed than the dreaded 5/12 matchup...

You would prefer a 6/11 than a 5/12?

5/12 has been disproportionately full of upsets. Some of it is perception, but I do remember seeing data that supports it.

Hmmm, where the heck was that?

This doesnt include the 2010 Tournament but only (12) Cornell won last year....

Since the 2001 tournament, No. 12 seeds have taken 18 of 36 matchups from No. 5 seeds.

Only five times in the past 30 years have all four No. 5 seeds won their first-round games – with the last time coming in 2007.

I think that might start changing now that the last 4 at large teams have to play the Tues/Wed play in game, since typically the last at large teams are seeded 12th.

I don't think the 6 v 11 numbers are that different than 5 v 12

At least as a 6 seed you avoid playing #1 for awhile although I don't know how much that helps.