02-17-2011, 12:46 PM
=>Sorry for being a little heavy on the Miami side of things, I just know that story a little better.
CANDIDATES:
A. Geno Ford (Kent State):
Why?: Kent has the best overall record in the MAC (17-8 ) and highest RPI (94). Until last night, Kent was in first place overall. Even now, Kent is only a 1/2 game behind Miami and that half game is in the win column (being tied in loss column is what really matters in a conference race).
Why not? Kent is in 2nd place in the East. Although Kent has best overall record, Kent is just 1-8 vs. the top 100 of the RPI (that 1 win vs. Miami). 10 of the 17 wins were over teams ranked 201+ or non-DI.
B. Charlie Coles (Miami):
Why?: Miami is currently in 1st place (9-3) overall in the MAC and was picked to only finish 4th in the MAC East with zero votes to win the MAC tournament. Miami is 2nd in the MAC in RPI, 2 spots behind Kent.
Miami finds ways to win close games (10-3 in games decided by 10 points or less, 2-1 in O.T. games). Numerous come from behind victories including 7 of the 9 wins in MAC play (down in 2nd half in wins vs. Ohio, Buffalo, CMU, BSU, EMU, Toledo, and Kent)
Miami played the #1 ranked non-league schedule in the nation which may include all 4 NCAA tourney #1 seeds (Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, SDSU) plus Xavier (1st place A10/Top 25), Belmont (1st place Atlantic Sun), Cincinnati (likely NCAA tournament at large), IUPUI (2nd place Summit, NIT bubble, lock for postseason), Dayton (defending NIT champs, likely NIT participant again), and Wright State (likely postseason).
Miami has been able to grab first place despite losing arguably the best player and heart and soul (Antonio Ballard) in 6th MAC game and has been without starting PG (Q. Rollins) since the 5th MAC game. Miami's leading scorer, rebounder, and assist man, Julian Mavunga, has a foot problem that had him miss the 1st Kent game and basically prevents him from practicing. Injuries to Josh Sewell, Drew McGhee, Vince Legarza, and Chris McHenry have caused these players to miss significant time. Miami also has the MAC's only OOC win over the RPI Top 50 (#19 Xavier, #24 in AP) and 2 of the top 4 biggest OOC RPI wins.
MAC's 5 Top 100 OOC RPI Wins:
Miami over #19 Xavier,
Ohio over #53 Valpo,
Toledo over #53 Valpo,
Miami over #86 IUPUI
WMU over #99 UW-Milwaukee
After 5-9 start, Miami has had the best turnaround in the MAC.
Why Not? 14-12 (13-12 vs. DI) overall record not impressive. Gross misuse of bench in WMU game may cost Miami the MAC regular season title when all shakes out. Other than Xavier, Miami has been destroyed by good teams. Miami has had very close wins over very bad teams [3 pts at home to 4-22 Towson, 7 points at home to 7-17 Troy in a miracle fashion (down 8 or so with 3 mins remaining), come from behind @CMU, and miracles #2 and #3 vs. EMU (down 13 with 3 to go) and Toledo (scored last 9 points to win by 2)].
JohnnyMac does not like him. Many Miami fans will tell you Charlie Coles cannot recruit, cannot win without Herb Sendek's players, cannot develop players, cannot run in bounds plays, cannot draw up plays, has a boring offense, cannot play defense, cannot beat a press, cannot use his bench, plays his starters too much, plays his starters too little, is too tough on his players when they make a mistake, is too lenient on his players when they make a mistake, never beats anybody, makes stupid comments in interviews, allows too many droughts, always gives up big leads, allows his teams to play down to the competition, and generally could not lead a whore to bed.
C. Reggie Witherspoon (Buffalo):
Why?: Despite being picked dead last in the East (and had lowest voting points overall...even less than Toledo), Buffalo has been a MAC East contender and has the 2nd best overall record in the league (15-9).
Why Not? Other than hang around in the MAC East standings, Buffalo has not done much. Losing home games to Ohio and BGSU were killers. Buffalo has tailed off a bit down the stretch going 1-3 in last 4 games. Weak OOC schedule (SOS ranked #283 overall).
D. Louis Orr (BGSU):
Why?: Similar to Buffalo, despite being picked next to last in the East, BGSU has been a MAC East contender. BGSU was able to turn around an abysmal 1-8 start (only win over a non-DI) against a weak schedule, to go 11-4 in the next 15 games. Arguably has the best turnaround in the MAC if go by 1-8 start.
Why Not? Again, similar to Buffalo, other than hang around in the MAC East standings, BGSU has not done much. Home losses to WMU and Akron and @ CMU were killers. BGSU has tailed off a bit down the stretch going 1-3 in last 4 games including those 2 home losses. Despite playing one of the easiest OOC schedules in the MAC (SOS ranked #270 overall), BGSU performed very poorly.
E. Keith Dambrot (Akron):
Why?: At the halfway point of the MAC season, Akron was sitting at 3-5 in the MAC in last place in the East and #11 overall seed (due to losing tiebreakers). Since then, Akron has righted the ship with 4 straight wins to now be 7-5. Akron is currently sitting on a MAC tourney 1st round bye as the #4 seed (due to winning tiebreakers) after destroying BG by 35 points on the road. 3rd best overall RPI (#143) in the MAC.
Why Not? Rocky start to MAC play.
F. Steven Hawkins (WMU):
Why?: WMU was picked 4th in the MAC West (no votes to win MAC tournament) and yet sees itself now as in 1st place in the division and the 3rd best overall record in the MAC. Big road wins over then MAC East 1st place Miami and BGSU. WMU actually had a winning record vs. the MAC East (3-2) despite playing 2 at home and 3 on the road. WMU has a home make up vs. Kent next week. RPI of #117 is best in the West and 4th overall.
Why Not? 14-10 overall record vs. the 253rd toughest schedule in the nation is not bad, but hardly something to brag about. Losing to the 3 terrible T's [Toledo , Towson (0-16 in CAA), Troy] almost unforgivable. Also, hard to give MAC COTY award to a coach in the MAC West (but WMU can rebut that by showing the Broncs East division results).
G. Tod Kowalczyk (Toledo):
Why?: Toledo lost almost everything from an already horrible basketball team (1-15 in MAC last year), but somehow found a way to not only beat MAC West 1st place WMU, but also earn the MAC's 2nd biggest OOC win (see Charlie Coles above) over Horizon League leader (1/2 game out actually, but even in loss column) Valpo. On top of that, Toledo gave MAC overall 1st place Miami a scare (Miami had to score last 9 points of game to win by 2). That alone is worthy of consideration given the horses Toledo has to work with.
Why Not? Although expected, the team is just terrible. Hard to give COTY award to a 4-22 (3-22 vs DI)/1-11 team. But if it can be done, Tod Kowalczyk's work with this Toledo team is the one that could do it. If Toledo can win home games coming up vs. NIU and CMU, or even a road game at EMU, well, that would be interesting.
Below is the projected finishes by the media at the end of October:
CANDIDATES:
A. Geno Ford (Kent State):
Why?: Kent has the best overall record in the MAC (17-8 ) and highest RPI (94). Until last night, Kent was in first place overall. Even now, Kent is only a 1/2 game behind Miami and that half game is in the win column (being tied in loss column is what really matters in a conference race).
Why not? Kent is in 2nd place in the East. Although Kent has best overall record, Kent is just 1-8 vs. the top 100 of the RPI (that 1 win vs. Miami). 10 of the 17 wins were over teams ranked 201+ or non-DI.
B. Charlie Coles (Miami):
Why?: Miami is currently in 1st place (9-3) overall in the MAC and was picked to only finish 4th in the MAC East with zero votes to win the MAC tournament. Miami is 2nd in the MAC in RPI, 2 spots behind Kent.
Miami finds ways to win close games (10-3 in games decided by 10 points or less, 2-1 in O.T. games). Numerous come from behind victories including 7 of the 9 wins in MAC play (down in 2nd half in wins vs. Ohio, Buffalo, CMU, BSU, EMU, Toledo, and Kent)
Miami played the #1 ranked non-league schedule in the nation which may include all 4 NCAA tourney #1 seeds (Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, SDSU) plus Xavier (1st place A10/Top 25), Belmont (1st place Atlantic Sun), Cincinnati (likely NCAA tournament at large), IUPUI (2nd place Summit, NIT bubble, lock for postseason), Dayton (defending NIT champs, likely NIT participant again), and Wright State (likely postseason).
Miami has been able to grab first place despite losing arguably the best player and heart and soul (Antonio Ballard) in 6th MAC game and has been without starting PG (Q. Rollins) since the 5th MAC game. Miami's leading scorer, rebounder, and assist man, Julian Mavunga, has a foot problem that had him miss the 1st Kent game and basically prevents him from practicing. Injuries to Josh Sewell, Drew McGhee, Vince Legarza, and Chris McHenry have caused these players to miss significant time. Miami also has the MAC's only OOC win over the RPI Top 50 (#19 Xavier, #24 in AP) and 2 of the top 4 biggest OOC RPI wins.
MAC's 5 Top 100 OOC RPI Wins:
Miami over #19 Xavier,
Ohio over #53 Valpo,
Toledo over #53 Valpo,
Miami over #86 IUPUI
WMU over #99 UW-Milwaukee
After 5-9 start, Miami has had the best turnaround in the MAC.
Why Not? 14-12 (13-12 vs. DI) overall record not impressive. Gross misuse of bench in WMU game may cost Miami the MAC regular season title when all shakes out. Other than Xavier, Miami has been destroyed by good teams. Miami has had very close wins over very bad teams [3 pts at home to 4-22 Towson, 7 points at home to 7-17 Troy in a miracle fashion (down 8 or so with 3 mins remaining), come from behind @CMU, and miracles #2 and #3 vs. EMU (down 13 with 3 to go) and Toledo (scored last 9 points to win by 2)].
JohnnyMac does not like him. Many Miami fans will tell you Charlie Coles cannot recruit, cannot win without Herb Sendek's players, cannot develop players, cannot run in bounds plays, cannot draw up plays, has a boring offense, cannot play defense, cannot beat a press, cannot use his bench, plays his starters too much, plays his starters too little, is too tough on his players when they make a mistake, is too lenient on his players when they make a mistake, never beats anybody, makes stupid comments in interviews, allows too many droughts, always gives up big leads, allows his teams to play down to the competition, and generally could not lead a whore to bed.
C. Reggie Witherspoon (Buffalo):
Why?: Despite being picked dead last in the East (and had lowest voting points overall...even less than Toledo), Buffalo has been a MAC East contender and has the 2nd best overall record in the league (15-9).
Why Not? Other than hang around in the MAC East standings, Buffalo has not done much. Losing home games to Ohio and BGSU were killers. Buffalo has tailed off a bit down the stretch going 1-3 in last 4 games. Weak OOC schedule (SOS ranked #283 overall).
D. Louis Orr (BGSU):
Why?: Similar to Buffalo, despite being picked next to last in the East, BGSU has been a MAC East contender. BGSU was able to turn around an abysmal 1-8 start (only win over a non-DI) against a weak schedule, to go 11-4 in the next 15 games. Arguably has the best turnaround in the MAC if go by 1-8 start.
Why Not? Again, similar to Buffalo, other than hang around in the MAC East standings, BGSU has not done much. Home losses to WMU and Akron and @ CMU were killers. BGSU has tailed off a bit down the stretch going 1-3 in last 4 games including those 2 home losses. Despite playing one of the easiest OOC schedules in the MAC (SOS ranked #270 overall), BGSU performed very poorly.
E. Keith Dambrot (Akron):
Why?: At the halfway point of the MAC season, Akron was sitting at 3-5 in the MAC in last place in the East and #11 overall seed (due to losing tiebreakers). Since then, Akron has righted the ship with 4 straight wins to now be 7-5. Akron is currently sitting on a MAC tourney 1st round bye as the #4 seed (due to winning tiebreakers) after destroying BG by 35 points on the road. 3rd best overall RPI (#143) in the MAC.
Why Not? Rocky start to MAC play.
F. Steven Hawkins (WMU):
Why?: WMU was picked 4th in the MAC West (no votes to win MAC tournament) and yet sees itself now as in 1st place in the division and the 3rd best overall record in the MAC. Big road wins over then MAC East 1st place Miami and BGSU. WMU actually had a winning record vs. the MAC East (3-2) despite playing 2 at home and 3 on the road. WMU has a home make up vs. Kent next week. RPI of #117 is best in the West and 4th overall.
Why Not? 14-10 overall record vs. the 253rd toughest schedule in the nation is not bad, but hardly something to brag about. Losing to the 3 terrible T's [Toledo , Towson (0-16 in CAA), Troy] almost unforgivable. Also, hard to give MAC COTY award to a coach in the MAC West (but WMU can rebut that by showing the Broncs East division results).
G. Tod Kowalczyk (Toledo):
Why?: Toledo lost almost everything from an already horrible basketball team (1-15 in MAC last year), but somehow found a way to not only beat MAC West 1st place WMU, but also earn the MAC's 2nd biggest OOC win (see Charlie Coles above) over Horizon League leader (1/2 game out actually, but even in loss column) Valpo. On top of that, Toledo gave MAC overall 1st place Miami a scare (Miami had to score last 9 points of game to win by 2). That alone is worthy of consideration given the horses Toledo has to work with.
Why Not? Although expected, the team is just terrible. Hard to give COTY award to a 4-22 (3-22 vs DI)/1-11 team. But if it can be done, Tod Kowalczyk's work with this Toledo team is the one that could do it. If Toledo can win home games coming up vs. NIU and CMU, or even a road game at EMU, well, that would be interesting.
Below is the projected finishes by the media at the end of October:
Code:
East Division Predicted Order of Finish
1. Ohio – 128 points (12)
2. Kent State – 114 points (8)
3. Akron – 104 points (4)
4. Miami – 84 points
5. Bowling Green – 42 points
6. Buffalo – 32 points
West Division Predicted Order of Finish
1. Ball State – 124 points (12)
2. Central Michigan – 122 points (8)
3. Eastern Michigan – 88 points (2)
4. Western Michigan – 68 points
5. Northern Illinois – 64 points (2)
6. Toledo – 38 points
(1st place votes in parentheses)