Was looking over the bowl results to see if I could project a scenario in which a MAC team (NIU or Miami) might somehow squeeze into the top 25 in the final poll. Although it's possible, I'd still say it's unlikely.
Of the lower ranked teams, #17 Nebraska lost to Wash, #18 Texas A&M lost to #11 LSU, #19 S. Carolina lost to #23 Fla State, #20 Utah lost to #10 Boise State, #22 WVU lost to NC State, #24 Hawaii lost to Tulsa, and #25 Connecticut lost to #9 Oklahoma.
Of these teams, I suspect WVU, Hawaii and UConn all drop out, but now sure if a team like Utah or Nebraska will fall out of the final poll...I kknd of doubt it.
In terms of teams outside the top 25 moving up, you are likely to see UCF and Tulsa )(who beat ranked Hawaii) break in, and then possibly an 8-5 Iowa (who beat a highly ranked Missou team) and then possibly NIU or Miami. If I were a betting man, hate to say it but Miami and NIU could very well finish #26 and 27 in the final poll unless teams like Utah or Nebraska fall out of the final poll.
I don't anticipate NIU getting into the top 25.
People do not want to put MAC teams in their rankings. So i fully expect NIU to be the only 11-win team not in the top 25.
Like you i do anticipate Hawaii, WVU, and UConn dropping out. Possibly Utah due to not even being competitive against Boise. A small possibility in Nebraska, S. Carolina, and A&M but they will stay in if it means voters would have to put MAC teams instead.
I don't see people putting a 8-5 Iowa team in. That's not a good record.
(01-10-2011 01:10 PM)exCincy Kid Wrote: [ -> ]Was looking over the bowl results to see if I could project a scenario in which a MAC team (NIU or Miami) might somehow squeeze into the top 25 in the final poll. Although it's possible, I'd still say it's unlikely.
Of the lower ranked teams, #17 Nebraska lost to Wash, #18 Texas A&M lost to #11 LSU, #19 S. Carolina lost to #23 Fla State, #20 Utah lost to #10 Boise State, #22 WVU lost to NC State, #24 Hawaii lost to Tulsa, and #25 Connecticut lost to #9 Oklahoma.
Of these teams, I suspect WVU, Hawaii and UConn all drop out, but now sure if a team like Utah or Nebraska will fall out of the final poll...I kknd of doubt it.
In terms of teams outside the top 25 moving up, you are likely to see UCF and Tulsa )(who beat ranked Hawaii) break in, and then possibly an 8-5 Iowa (who beat a highly ranked Missou team) and then possibly NIU or Miami. If I were a betting man, hate to say it but Miami and NIU could very well finish #26 and 27 in the final poll unless teams like Utah or Nebraska fall out of the final poll.
I can see Northern Illinois in there but not Miami. Miami had a great season but they weren't impressive enough in their wins against struggling teams to warrant a Top 25 ranking. Also, next to UTEP, Miami drew probably the worst team to go to a bowl this year (no offense to MTSU fans lurking). No team that ranked last in the Turnover Margin department has ever gone to a bowl game in the past.
Give Miami time. If Boucher decides to stay, he can be key in leading that team back to its former glory.
It's usually very difficult to move from outside the top 25 into the final poll unless you beat a ranked team, or loads of teams ranked just above you lose. I also forgot NC State, who beat a ranked WVU team and finished 9-4.
Again, as noted above, I don't see a MAC team being ranked but it'd be nice if NIU could somehow sneak in there at 25th. On one of the ESPN blogs there was a prediction that either NIU or MIami might slip in.
http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_...-in-top-10
NIU finishes 13 votes out. IMO, Utah should have dropped out, after their finish to the season. South Carolina should have been dropped some more, if not out as well.
I didn't think we'd end up ranked, but I thought Miami might get a few more votes than we did....too bad NIU couldn't squeeze into the rankings...I think they finished 26th in both polls, didn't they?
Well, at least the MAC went 2-2 in our bowl games.......we were one 4th and 17 from going 3-1!
Pretty ridiculous when 9-5 (S. Carolina) and 8-5 (Iowa in the Final AP Poll) teams are considered top 25 worthy. Just shows the pro-BCS bias.
(01-11-2011 10:16 AM)epasnoopy Wrote: [ -> ]Pretty ridiculous when 9-5 (S. Carolina) and 8-5 (Iowa in the Final AP Poll) teams are considered top 25 worthy. Just shows the pro-BCS bias.
Well, in fairness, South Carolina lost to #1 Auburn twice and 2 other losses were to Top 25 teams, while they beat Alabama.
In NIU's case, all three losses came to teams that were pretty clearly not Top 25.
I think SC deserved it over NIU, despite NIU's fine season.
Now, Iowa, I don't get the love. I didn't even seriously consider them for my personal Top 25.
So why is TCU now #2? If Auburn and Oregon were supposedly the best teams, and Oregon barely lost, shouldn't Oregon still be #2?
Just sayin'.
(01-11-2011 10:26 AM)bopol Wrote: [ -> ] (01-11-2011 10:16 AM)epasnoopy Wrote: [ -> ]Pretty ridiculous when 9-5 (S. Carolina) and 8-5 (Iowa in the Final AP Poll) teams are considered top 25 worthy. Just shows the pro-BCS bias.
Well, in fairness, South Carolina lost to #1 Auburn twice and 2 other losses were to Top 25 teams, while they beat Alabama.
In NIU's case, all three losses came to teams that were pretty clearly not Top 25.
I think SC deserved it over NIU, despite NIU's fine season.
Now, Iowa, I don't get the love. I didn't even seriously consider them for my personal Top 25.
Guess I can't complain about 26th/29th for NIU. MAC had 2 in top 30 in AP poll, that's pretty good.
See what you did Miami? Your win in the MACC hurt the MAC.
(01-11-2011 11:37 AM)Lord Stanley Wrote: [ -> ]See what you did Miami? Your win in the MACC hurt the MAC.
Yea, and Miami has plenty of MAC titles. Least they could have done is let us win one.
Happy to see Miami got a bunch of votes too, was hoping they'd hit #30 in both polls but oh well.
(01-11-2011 10:26 AM)bopol Wrote: [ -> ] (01-11-2011 10:16 AM)epasnoopy Wrote: [ -> ]Pretty ridiculous when 9-5 (S. Carolina) and 8-5 (Iowa in the Final AP Poll) teams are considered top 25 worthy. Just shows the pro-BCS bias.
Well, in fairness, South Carolina lost to #1 Auburn twice and 2 other losses were to Top 25 teams, while they beat Alabama.
In NIU's case, all three losses came to teams that were pretty clearly not Top 25.
I think SC deserved it over NIU, despite NIU's fine season.
Now, Iowa, I don't get the love. I didn't even seriously consider them for my personal Top 25.
I was looking at it less by who they played and more by their records. Winning percentages of .643 and .615 do not scream top 25 to me.
(01-11-2011 11:50 AM)epasnoopy Wrote: [ -> ]I was looking at it less by who they played and more by their records. Winning percentages of .643 and .615 do not scream top 25 to me.
I think you have to consider the quality of the best wins as well as who they lost to when determining the Top 25. Personally, I ended up with 14 teams for the last 4 spots and 4 had 5 losses (South Carolina, Notre Dame, USC and Texas Tech). NIU was in that list, but the lack of a really good win and the bad losses made them pretty easy for me to leave out of the Top 25. In all likelihood, I would have had them between 30-35 if I went that far out.
I'm not getting the Iowa thing, so I won't even try to explain that. I think Iowa was probably between 35 and 45 or so, not really close to the Top 25.
(01-11-2011 12:02 PM)bopol Wrote: [ -> ]NIU was in that list, but the lack of a really good win and the bad losses made them pretty easy for me to leave out of the Top 25. In all likelihood, I would have had them between 30-35 if I went that far out.
Did you have UCF in your top 25? UCF lacked any good wins. What was their best win? 7-7 SMU or 6-7 Georgia? Their losses to K-State, NC St., and USM weren't any better than our losses to Illinois (who won their bowl by a lot), Miami (who finished with tens wins and a bowl win), and Iowa State.
(01-11-2011 12:29 PM)epasnoopy Wrote: [ -> ] (01-11-2011 12:02 PM)bopol Wrote: [ -> ]NIU was in that list, but the lack of a really good win and the bad losses made them pretty easy for me to leave out of the Top 25. In all likelihood, I would have had them between 30-35 if I went that far out.
Did you have UCF in your top 25? UCF lacked any good wins. What was their best win? 7-7 SMU or 6-7 Georgia? Their losses to K-State, NC St., and USM weren't any better than our losses to Illinois (who won their bowl by a lot), Miami (who finished with tens wins and a bowl win), and Iowa State.
No, I didn't have UCF in my Top 25 either. Another team that I'm not getting the love.
Here's my Top 25:
1. Auburn
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Stanford
5. Boise St
6. Ohio St
7. LSU
8. Wisconsin
9. Oklahoma
10. Arkansas
11. Nevada
12. Oklahoma St
13. Alabama
14. Texas A&M
15. Virginia Tech
16. Michigan St
17. Mississippi St
18. Florida Sat
19. Nebraska
20. Missouri
21. Utah
22. South Carolina
23. SD St
24. NC State
25. Tulsa
26. Maryland (if I could have)
Others that I considered: Hawaii, WVU, Texas Tech, Air Force, NIU, UCF, Navy, Notre Dame and USC.
I'm sure there is plenty to criticize there, but it was mostly for my fun. As a MAC homer, I wish I could have put NIU in there, but I couldn't justify it.
That's funny
the
Congrove computer Poll Top120 found room for NIU!
16 NIU
18 UCF
36 Miami(o)
39 Temple
54 Ohio
That's 4 teams in the top half of d1a football
I prefer the Congrove almost as much as the Sagarin's
