Edited to show saturday's games....70 bowl eligible teams, 70 spots and 5 teams with a remaining shot...
BCS
Colorado (5-7) OUT
Cincy (4-7) OUT
Louisville (6-6) Eligible
Rutgers (4-7) OUT
Texas (5-7) OUT
Oregon St (5-6) Oregon
Washington (5-6) @WSU
Cal (5-6) OUT
UCLA (4-7) OUT
Georgia (5-6) Eligible
Tenn (6-6) Eligible
Possible Waiver if they win: Arizona State (5-6) @Arizona (2 games against 1-AA schools)
Non-BCS
Houston (5-7) OUT
WMU (6-6) Eligible
FIU (6-5) Eligible
Troy (6-5) Eligible
La Monroe (5-7) OUT
FAU (4-7) OUT
MTSU (5-6) @FIU
La Tech (5-6) Nevada
Idaho (5-7) OUT
You can knock the loser of Louisville/Rutgers, FAU/MTSU out since all 4 already have 6 loses. Colorado won't beat Nebraska.
Yeah, but if Louisville wins over Rutgers (likely) that's one more spot taken. If Cal beats Washington (likely) they are in and if Washington somehow wins then they get to play lowly WSU and likely get in. That doesn't even include the non BSC games...Louisiana Monroe is likely to beat La-Lafayette, and FIU and Troy both have excellent shots at getting to 6 wins. Due to southern proximity, even SunBelt teams will likely be preferred over MAC schools if there are any leftover teams.
Looking at this list I'm thinking the probability is pretty high only 3 MAC teams bowl, maybe a 40% chance of 4, and 25% chance of 5. My probabilities are not statistical at all...just wild guesses but it sure doesn't look good for 5 like we thought a few days ago.
I'll predict (today) the MAC gets four in. They could just as easily wind up with anywhere from only three to as many as six.
Quick prediction on who gets the final eight spots:
FIU (7-5)
Troy (6-6) Note: Sun Belt is aligned with two bowls.
Texas (6-6)
Louisville (6-6)
Cal (6-6)
Tennessee (6-6)
Georgia (6-6)
Toledo (8-4)
Left Out
Miami (8-4)
Western Michigan (6-6)
Easily Possible Spoilers for a Fourth, Fifth or Sixth MAC Bowl Team
Oregon State (6-6)
UCLA (6-6)
Middle Tennessee (6-6)
La Monroe (6-6)
Okie...awfully kind of you to project us (MU) to finish at 8-4....I'm guessing Temple will be a bit of a favorite in our game next week, even though it's in Oxford.
Speaking of bowls, Marshall lost to SMU to go to 4-7 and miss bowl eligibility again. One of the reasons they went to C-USA is to find more fertile "bowl opportunities"..how many have they been to since they left the MAC...I'm thinking one. How long has it been since they left.....was 2004 their last year??
the latest ESPN bowl projections have OHIO, Northern Illinois, Temple, and Toledo in bowls - no mention of Miami or Western Michigan.
OHIO vs. Troy in GoDaddy.com Bowl
NIU vs. Louisiana-Monroe in Pizza Pizza Bowl
Temple vs. Fresno State in Humanitarian Bowl
Toledo vs. Army or Brigham Young (depending on prognosticator) in New Mexico Bowl
Not looking too good for us to get more than 3 or 4 slots.
That would be very nice indeed.
Does anyone know of they will be giving out bowls after the final games this week? They used to do bowl presentations after the final games. Or do they have to wait until the last game and after Conferance Championship games?
I am standing by my prediction of 72 teams to be bowl eligible. That means 8 more of the 20 will get eligible. The MAC could still have 5 teams in, because I think Miami and Toledo are more attractive (based on tradition and past attendance to bowl games earlier this decade) than a couple of Sun Belt/C-USA teams that would be looking for at-large invites. Time will tell.
(11-21-2010 09:02 PM)BrianNowicki Wrote: [ -> ]I am standing by my prediction of 72 teams to be bowl eligible. That means 8 more of the 20 will get eligible. The MAC could still have 5 teams in, because I think Miami and Toledo are more attractive (based on tradition and past attendance to bowl games earlier this decade) than a couple of Sun Belt/C-USA teams that would be looking for at-large invites. Time will tell.
I'm guessing 71 bowl eligible teams. In addition to the 64 aleady "bowl eligible", I see 3 teams from the Sun Belt (FIU, Troy and LMU), California, Louisville, Georgia, and Western Michigan. Although the Broncos are better than any team in the Sun Belt, the Sun Belt fills the New Orleans, GoDaddy, and Little Caeser's bowls.
if we are in the predicting business
i predict only 69 bowl eligible teams: We will add Cal, FAU, Troy (no ther Sun belt), WMU, Louisville, and the last bowl slot to be debated between non bowl eligible teams (Maybe the winner of the Indiana/Purdue game to be selected for the MCB at that point)
(11-21-2010 11:43 PM)houstonhuskie Wrote: [ -> ]if we are in the predicting business
i predict only 69 bowl eligible teams: We will add Cal, FAU, Troy (no ther Sun belt), WMU, Louisville, and the last bowl slot to be debated between non bowl eligible teams (Maybe the winner of the Indiana/Purdue game to be selected for the MCB at that point)
So you think WMU will get bowl eligible then go to a bowl? and Miami and Toledo are safe no matter what happens this weekend?
The Broncos in a bowl is a long shot. And that's assuming we beat BGSU (Remember we lost to a 1-win Ball State team at the end of last season, at home, to miss out on a 6-6 record).
And if we do squeak in somewhere, it'll be gravy and I'll enjoy watching it. But if we don't, I won't be upset by it at all. It was a kick in the groin when a 9-win WMU team sat home in 2000, a product of the MAC of yesteryear. But for 6-6, there's certainly no feeling of getting screwed over if we go nowhere.
(11-22-2010 07:34 AM)Motown Bronco Wrote: [ -> ]The Broncos in a bowl is a long shot. And that's assuming we beat BGSU (Remember we lost to a 1-win Ball State team at the end of last season, at home, to miss out on a 6-6 record).
And if we do squeak in somewhere, it'll be gravy and I'll enjoy watching it. But if we don't, I won't be upset by it at all. It was a kick in the groin when a 9-win WMU team sat home in 2000, a product of the MAC of yesteryear. But for 6-6, there's certainly no feeling of getting screwed over if we go nowhere.
Would WMU have enough qualifying wins at 6-6? I remember a discussion here regarding whether or not Nicholls State would count because of the number of scholarships possibly being too low (something like that). Any idea if that applies to the Bronco's situation?
Right now I think Miami to a bowl is a bit of a long shot.
I think 72 bowl eligable, leaves WM & Lous-M at home
5 at-large spots
ND to Las Vagas
Army to krafts
Mia to LCB
Temple vs GaT in NM