10-25-2010, 03:53 AM
Payroll will grow; so will expenses
By John Fay • jfay@enquirer.com • October 24, 2010
The Reds will start working in earnest on the math problem that will go a long way toward determining the roster for 2011.
General manager Walt Jocketty said his payroll number will be slightly more than last season's. But Jocketty won't reveal it beyond that. Basically, the Reds will try to figure out this week how much they can spend on free agents.
My conclusion: Very little.
Let's do the math. The payroll was $76.1 million at the start of the year. For this exercise, let's say it will be $80 million for 2011.
First, you subtract $46.7 million from the $80 million. That's what the Reds owe players currently under contract, assuming they pick up the options on right-hander Bronson Arroyo and left fielder Jonny Gomes. Jocketty has said they will pick up Arroyo's and probably Gomes'. Arroyo will likely become the highest-paid Red at $13 million. His option is for $11 million. But it goes to $13 million based on innings pitched in 2010. You have to think that kicked in after Arroyo's team-high 2152/3 innings.
Also under contract are closer Francisco Cordero ($12 million), second baseman Brandon Phillips ($11 million), third baseman Scott Rolen ($6.5 million), right-hander Nick Masset ($1.54 million) and left-hander Aroldis Chapman ($1 million). Gomes' option is for $1.75 million. This assumes that Reds will not pick up the options on Aaron Harang or Orlando Cabrera.
Those contracts will leave the Reds with about $33 million to pay the other 18 players on the roster.
A huge chunk of that will go to the five arbitration-eligible players: Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, Bill Bray, Edinson Volquez and Jay Bruce. The Reds are assuming Bruce will qualify.
"What they get affects the payroll big-time," Jocketty said.
Reaching arbitration is the baseball equivalent of the hitting the lottery. Once you get to arbitration, you're going to make a lot of money whether you win or lose.
Votto could go from making $550,000 to $10 million. Someone like Bray will go from making $440,000 to about $1 million. The others fall in between. My guess is Bruce and Cueto are in the $3 million range. It's a really tough call on Volquez because he was injured.
When the Reds figure out the arbitration numbers, they'll subtract that from the $33 million and determine what they can do about the rest of the roster..
Say the arbitration-eligibles eat up about $20 million. That would leave $13 million for the other 13 players on the roster. Fortunately for the Reds, they have a lot of players who will make right around the Major League minimum of $400,000: Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Paul Janish, Chris Heisey, Ryan Hanigan, Drew Stubbs and Logan Ondrusek all fit in that category.
The bottom line the Reds aren't going to have a lot of money to fill those last spots.
Jocketty said the club is interested in bringing back Ramon Hernandez and Cabrera if they can do so at a reasonable price. But when you have $42.5 million dedicated to four players, every million counts.
That's why the Reds didn't offer arbitration to Gomes and Laynce Nix last year. In each case, they got the player back but they probably saved $3 million in the process.
The one thing the Reds can do to control cost is sign the arbitration players to long-term deals. Players are sometimes willing to take less short-term for the long-term security.
Jocketty has not approached any of the players about multi-year deals yet.
"It's something we'll look at but probably not until November," he said.
THIS YEAR'S LEAKE? Jocketty was out in the Arizona watching the Reds' players in the Arizona Fall League this week.
Two players in AFL could play their way into the Reds' 2011 plans, catcher Devin Mesoraco and outfielder Dave Sappelt both had terrific years in 2010, moving from High A Lynchburg to Triple-A Louisville. Mesoraco hit .305/.377/.587 this year. Sappelt hit .342/.395/.507 and stole 25 bases.
"They probably need more time at Triple-A," Jocketty said. "But at this time last year, no one thought Mike Leake would make our team. Dusty (Baker) always looks for surprises."
FAMILIAR FACE: Right-hander Daryl Thompson is healthy and pitching in the Fall League. He missed most of last year after shoulder surgery. He went 0-5 with a 3.71 in Double-A this year. But he's thrown well in Arizona.
"I saw him the other day," Jocketty said. "He looked good."
Thompson threw three scoreless innings. He still only 24. He was club's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2008. He went 0-2 with a 6.91 ERA with the Reds that year. He threw five scoreless innings against the Yankees in at Yankee Stadium in his debut.
He's definitely one to keep an eye on.
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101...l-expenses
By John Fay • jfay@enquirer.com • October 24, 2010
The Reds will start working in earnest on the math problem that will go a long way toward determining the roster for 2011.
General manager Walt Jocketty said his payroll number will be slightly more than last season's. But Jocketty won't reveal it beyond that. Basically, the Reds will try to figure out this week how much they can spend on free agents.
My conclusion: Very little.
Let's do the math. The payroll was $76.1 million at the start of the year. For this exercise, let's say it will be $80 million for 2011.
First, you subtract $46.7 million from the $80 million. That's what the Reds owe players currently under contract, assuming they pick up the options on right-hander Bronson Arroyo and left fielder Jonny Gomes. Jocketty has said they will pick up Arroyo's and probably Gomes'. Arroyo will likely become the highest-paid Red at $13 million. His option is for $11 million. But it goes to $13 million based on innings pitched in 2010. You have to think that kicked in after Arroyo's team-high 2152/3 innings.
Also under contract are closer Francisco Cordero ($12 million), second baseman Brandon Phillips ($11 million), third baseman Scott Rolen ($6.5 million), right-hander Nick Masset ($1.54 million) and left-hander Aroldis Chapman ($1 million). Gomes' option is for $1.75 million. This assumes that Reds will not pick up the options on Aaron Harang or Orlando Cabrera.
Those contracts will leave the Reds with about $33 million to pay the other 18 players on the roster.
A huge chunk of that will go to the five arbitration-eligible players: Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, Bill Bray, Edinson Volquez and Jay Bruce. The Reds are assuming Bruce will qualify.
"What they get affects the payroll big-time," Jocketty said.
Reaching arbitration is the baseball equivalent of the hitting the lottery. Once you get to arbitration, you're going to make a lot of money whether you win or lose.
Votto could go from making $550,000 to $10 million. Someone like Bray will go from making $440,000 to about $1 million. The others fall in between. My guess is Bruce and Cueto are in the $3 million range. It's a really tough call on Volquez because he was injured.
When the Reds figure out the arbitration numbers, they'll subtract that from the $33 million and determine what they can do about the rest of the roster..
Say the arbitration-eligibles eat up about $20 million. That would leave $13 million for the other 13 players on the roster. Fortunately for the Reds, they have a lot of players who will make right around the Major League minimum of $400,000: Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Paul Janish, Chris Heisey, Ryan Hanigan, Drew Stubbs and Logan Ondrusek all fit in that category.
The bottom line the Reds aren't going to have a lot of money to fill those last spots.
Jocketty said the club is interested in bringing back Ramon Hernandez and Cabrera if they can do so at a reasonable price. But when you have $42.5 million dedicated to four players, every million counts.
That's why the Reds didn't offer arbitration to Gomes and Laynce Nix last year. In each case, they got the player back but they probably saved $3 million in the process.
The one thing the Reds can do to control cost is sign the arbitration players to long-term deals. Players are sometimes willing to take less short-term for the long-term security.
Jocketty has not approached any of the players about multi-year deals yet.
"It's something we'll look at but probably not until November," he said.
THIS YEAR'S LEAKE? Jocketty was out in the Arizona watching the Reds' players in the Arizona Fall League this week.
Two players in AFL could play their way into the Reds' 2011 plans, catcher Devin Mesoraco and outfielder Dave Sappelt both had terrific years in 2010, moving from High A Lynchburg to Triple-A Louisville. Mesoraco hit .305/.377/.587 this year. Sappelt hit .342/.395/.507 and stole 25 bases.
"They probably need more time at Triple-A," Jocketty said. "But at this time last year, no one thought Mike Leake would make our team. Dusty (Baker) always looks for surprises."
FAMILIAR FACE: Right-hander Daryl Thompson is healthy and pitching in the Fall League. He missed most of last year after shoulder surgery. He went 0-5 with a 3.71 in Double-A this year. But he's thrown well in Arizona.
"I saw him the other day," Jocketty said. "He looked good."
Thompson threw three scoreless innings. He still only 24. He was club's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2008. He went 0-2 with a 6.91 ERA with the Reds that year. He threw five scoreless innings against the Yankees in at Yankee Stadium in his debut.
He's definitely one to keep an eye on.
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101...l-expenses