(05-11-2010 08:17 AM)arkstfan Wrote: [ -> ]The only way to get it right is to know three things.
1. Will Notre Dame accept?
2. Will the Pac-10 pull the trigger on expansion?
3. Will the ACC respond by growing larger.
I feel pretty confident if the answer to #1 is no, that the SEC won't respond.
If the answer to #2 is no, the MWC and Big XII live to fight another day.
If the answer to #3 is no, the Big East lives to fight another day.
Any of those change to yes and it gets wild.
For some reason, I still do not see ND joining the Big 10. To me it is the best choice - joining the Big 10. Reason being, in football they are not going to get a lot of the big recruits because the other conference schools can still out sell ND on the recruiting trail with that carrot of winning a conference title. Being in a new look Big 10 will give ND those strategic matchups it desires (Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State, Michigan State), still allow ND to play Army, Navy, and USC if they desire and allow ND to play for a conference title. On top of that, ND will make even more money than it is now.
In any event, should the Big 10 make a move on expansion, regardless of what ND decides to do, I beleive the Pac 10 will make a move to 12 teams. the Pac 10 must get into the money hunt with all of the other conferences, if it wants to remain elite. The Pac 10 cannot afford to sit back and allow the other power conferences to move to 12 or more teams.
As for the ACC, it has not been able to get its new look going, from an economic standpoint. Why? I have no idea. Maybe it is a marketing and branding thing, which is weird when you have Duke, UNC, FSU, Miami, etc. In any event, if the Big 10 and the Pac 10 decide to make a move, the ACC will almost be forced to make a move or else take the chance of becoming a way distant fourth on the college athletic's chart of monetary power players (1. Big 10, 2. SEC, 3. PAC 10 and 4. ACC). That being the case, the best move for the ACC would be to add two programs that would not only increase the talent pool in football but also make the leage the premier college basketball league. Those two programs would be UConn and West Vriginia.
That would then leave the Big East torn to pieces, and ready to die like it has been in football for a while. All that will remain are Pitt, Cinn, USF and Louisville. What will happen with these schools? I believe they would merge CUSA into the Big East, making a 16 team league. Will the Big East be capable of keeping its automoatic BCS bid with these programs?
What needs to be determined is who does the PAC 10 take. I agree that their choices will be Colorado and Utah, making them a 12 team league.
The Big 12 will now have to replace Nebraska, Missouri, and Colorado. However, with the losses of three decent institutions, does Texas and Oklahoma decide to stay in the conference? The only place for them to go is to the SEC, if the SEC takes them. Will the SEC make a move after all of the movement that has taken place? From a money standpoint, it is possible. The only way I see them moving is if they can land Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and, as many have suggested, Oklahoma State (although I feel addiding Kansas would be better because they can at least get some of that Kansas City market with Kansas). Should that happen, either way it happens, the Big XII would be in shambles.
The Big XII would not die. I believe we would see what is left of the Big XII (5 institutions) work to add Boise and Nevada from the WAC and TCU, BYU, Air Force, Wyoming and New Mexico from the MWC. Lastly, the WAC and MWC will merge its remaining members.
Unchanged will be the Sun Belt Conference and the MAC (Villanova will not risk allowing Temple to move into the Big East and become a dominant power in the Philadelphia area), as well as the independents.
All of this would be an absolute bite on those FCS programs looking to move up. There will be room in the SBC, should it be in a position to move to 12 programs.