Keep hearing how the BE is going to be the biggest loser. Or how potentially the ACC could be the biggest loser. Or even the Big 12 is going to be the biggest loser.
Truth be told, the programs that are not part of the BCS will be the biggest losers. Maybe the MWC becomes an AQ but other than that, there could be a whole lot of non-BCS programs that are trying to position themselves for potentially greener pastures getting left out in the cold. BE teams for the most part will find another BCS home. The Big 12 will survive in some shape, fashion, or form and the ACC isn't going anywhere. It is the non-BCS programs that stand to lose the most in this expansion deal.
THe only plus I see for the non BCS teams is that with fewer of them to play OOC games that BCS teams like to schedule earlier in the year; it's possible that nonBCS teams will be able to extract more $ for those games. On the other hand the BCS teams may just change their rules and allow any BCS team to play any number of games they want with FCS teams and let the results count toward their total W-L record, that would be complete BS and make the BCS an even bigger joke than it is now but we'll see what happens.
This is the whole problem with the BCS is locks programs out permanently. If you aren't good right now, then the BCS basically ensures that you will never be good. That's because even if you are good, it won't even matter because you aren't in the club.
(05-07-2010 03:52 PM)BlazerOfUAB Wrote: [ -> ]Keep hearing how the BE is going to be the biggest loser. Or how potentially the ACC could be the biggest loser. Or even the Big 12 is going to be the biggest loser.
Truth be told, the programs that are not part of the BCS will be the biggest losers. Maybe the MWC becomes an AQ but other than that, there could be a whole lot of non-BCS programs that are trying to position themselves for potentially greener pastures getting left out in the cold. BE teams for the most part will find another BCS home. The Big 12 will survive in some shape, fashion, or form and the ACC isn't going anywhere. It is the non-BCS programs that stand to lose the most in this expansion deal.
Not trying to be argumentative, but I don't think you clearly see the situation as it is now. The non-BCS schools have almost NOTHING to lose. They are already on the outside looking in. BCS schools get anywhere from $5-22M per school each year as a TV payout. Non-BCS schools get peanuts.
That is not going to change. All a non-BCS school can hope for is to climb up a rung to a lower-tier BCS conference, such as the BE, if it survives, the B12, or some remnant of either that retains AQ status.
I'd say it is without a doubt the lower tier of the BE and the B12, and perhaps even the P10, who have the most to lose.
The non-BCS situation will only worsen significantly if the BCS schools drop out of the NCAA, refuse to play the others, and get away with it.
(05-07-2010 04:16 PM)TripleA Wrote: [ -> ] (05-07-2010 03:52 PM)BlazerOfUAB Wrote: [ -> ]Keep hearing how the BE is going to be the biggest loser. Or how potentially the ACC could be the biggest loser. Or even the Big 12 is going to be the biggest loser.
Truth be told, the programs that are not part of the BCS will be the biggest losers. Maybe the MWC becomes an AQ but other than that, there could be a whole lot of non-BCS programs that are trying to position themselves for potentially greener pastures getting left out in the cold. BE teams for the most part will find another BCS home. The Big 12 will survive in some shape, fashion, or form and the ACC isn't going anywhere. It is the non-BCS programs that stand to lose the most in this expansion deal.
Not trying to be argumentative, but I don't think you clearly see the situation as it is now. The non-BCS schools have almost NOTHING to lose. They are already on the outside looking in. BCS schools get anywhere from $5-22M per school each year as a TV payout. Non-BCS schools get peanuts.
That is not going to change. All a non-BCS school can hope for is to climb up a rung to a lower-tier BCS conference, such as the BE, if it survives, the B12, or some remnant of either that retains AQ status.
I'd say it is without a doubt the lower tier of the BE and the B12, and perhaps even the P10, who have the most to lose.
The non-BCS situation will only worsen significantly if the BCS schools drop out of the NCAA, refuse to play the others, and get away with it.
The BCS system is not legal in it's current configuration nor any future configuration. It will be interesting to see what happens if the system is challenged in court.
If the schools in the Big East find themselves outside the BCS, than yes they will be the biggest losers.
However I truly believe that the biggest losers are going to be the teams that confine themselves to irrelevance by joining the Big Ten.
Yes I understand that they will make bucket loads more cash, but this will come at great cost to national perception, fan interest, and there ability to create a winning program.
(05-07-2010 05:48 PM)ULdave Wrote: [ -> ]However I truly believe that the biggest losers are going to be the teams that confine themselves to irrelevance by joining the Big Ten.
Truth be told, the Big Ten is not nearly as strong in football today as they may think they are. Ohio State could be the big loser, because they will now have to beat more than just Penn State (and eventually Michigan) to get to the Rose Bowl.
Call me a blind optimist but I think that:
1) even the worst BCS schools ( looking at you Baylir and Wazzou) will not get left out. As another person put it, they may not be as comfortable as they are now, but they will still be in some kind of BCS conference.
2) A lot of current midmajors will move up through expansion with the BE and B12/MWC replacing teams. Depending on the scenario, with the MWC getting AQ quite few could.
(05-07-2010 05:03 PM)DawsonUCF Wrote: [ -> ] (05-07-2010 04:16 PM)TripleA Wrote: [ -> ] (05-07-2010 03:52 PM)BlazerOfUAB Wrote: [ -> ]Keep hearing how the BE is going to be the biggest loser. Or how potentially the ACC could be the biggest loser. Or even the Big 12 is going to be the biggest loser.
Truth be told, the programs that are not part of the BCS will be the biggest losers. Maybe the MWC becomes an AQ but other than that, there could be a whole lot of non-BCS programs that are trying to position themselves for potentially greener pastures getting left out in the cold. BE teams for the most part will find another BCS home. The Big 12 will survive in some shape, fashion, or form and the ACC isn't going anywhere. It is the non-BCS programs that stand to lose the most in this expansion deal.
Not trying to be argumentative, but I don't think you clearly see the situation as it is now. The non-BCS schools have almost NOTHING to lose. They are already on the outside looking in. BCS schools get anywhere from $5-22M per school each year as a TV payout. Non-BCS schools get peanuts.
That is not going to change. All a non-BCS school can hope for is to climb up a rung to a lower-tier BCS conference, such as the BE, if it survives, the B12, or some remnant of either that retains AQ status.
I'd say it is without a doubt the lower tier of the BE and the B12, and perhaps even the P10, who have the most to lose.
The non-BCS situation will only worsen significantly if the BCS schools drop out of the NCAA, refuse to play the others, and get away with it.
The BCS system is not legal in it's current configuration nor any future configuration. It will be interesting to see what happens if the system is challenged in court.
I'll tell you what will happen. The new superconferences will withdraw from the NCAA, form their own version of it, drop the BCS and start up a playoff-with only their teams being allowed to play in it. It will then take years for any legal challenges, especially since so many powerful lawmakers will be involved.
(05-07-2010 08:10 PM)buckaineer Wrote: [ -> ]I'll tell you what will happen. The new superconferences will withdraw from the NCAA, form their own version of it, drop the BCS and start up a playoff-with only their teams being allowed to play in it. It will then take years for any legal challenges, especially since so many powerful lawmakers will be involved.
What? This just make sno sense. For one, there is a reason the conferences are protecting the bowl system? It pays them more muchmore than a playoff would. And two, if they wanted a playoff, they could do so without leaving the NCAA. Three, they would mess that $700 million a year deal just signed with CBS for the NCAA tournament. Whomever keep suggesting this is just talking out of their ass, and not actually looking into details.
(05-07-2010 07:40 PM)10thMountain Wrote: [ -> ]Call me a blind optimist but I think that:
1) even the worst BCS schools ( looking at you Baylir and Wazzou) will not get left out. As another person put it, they may not be as comfortable as they are now, but they will still be in some kind of BCS conference.
2) A lot of current midmajors will move up through expansion with the BE and B12/MWC replacing teams. Depending on the scenario, with the MWC getting AQ quite few could.
Yeah you are being a blind optimist with the 2nd statement.
I don't see anyone else getting the pie, 54% are in the upper class now. More likely to shrink than grow.
The non-AQ have nothing to lose. If I'm wrong and some move up, then some win. If I'm right and some move out of the wealth we gain more regional opponents with known names. Honestly, SMU, TCU, Rice, and Temple have enjoyed more success out of the fraternity than they did the last few years in it.
If leagues go to 16 teams and use a pod format without crossover games that's a 7 game league schedule, meaning more non-conference games against the wealthy either for a fat check or 2/1 or home/home contracts.
Our biggest risk is middling conferences turning to more weeknight games, the only place where we can get national TV.
As for suing the BCS. Current TV deal is $125 million a year. If you are proven to violate anti-trust you get your actual damages recovered times three. Why is the MWC relying on DOJ to go after the BCS rather than private counsel? If the MWC damages are $10 million per year and it drags over 4 years that is a $120 million verdict.