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http://www.kansascity.com/2010/05/01/191...rt-ku.html



By SAM MELLINGER
The Kansas City Star
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A Big-12 breakup could hurt KU and KSU the most

His league is only 14 years old, but very much a part of the nation’s power structure in college sports, except in the one area that means the most: money.

The more you hear the more you see a rapidly approaching doomsday for the Big 12 that could hit Kansas and Kansas State the hardest, forever changing the face of Kansas City’s sports scene in the process.

Informed speculation continues to place Missouri and Nebraska in the Big Ten for bigger checks, and Colorado catching the Pac-10’s eye. Nobody with the Big 12 wants to talk about this on the record, but Beebe admits that his conference is falling more and more behind other leagues financially and could soon be at a giant disadvantage competitively.

“If it stays where it is?” Beebe says. “Yeah, of course.”

Beebe has called his league’s upcoming television negotiations “the most important matter I’ve dealt with,” but some wonder if it’s already too late.

Two separate reports put Missouri and Nebraska in the Big Ten last week, and while conversations between The Star and officials at both schools late last week disproved the reports, there is obviously movement behind the scenes.

At the moment, Missouri has leverage and the best immediate future of Kansas City’s three local Big 12 schools.

If invited, Mizzou could join the Big Ten and accept some $10 million more than it currently gets from the Big 12, as well as join a better academic conference. Or, perhaps, they could flip the Big Ten’s interest into a better situation in the Big 12.

The future is much more tenuous for Kansas and Kansas State, which could be dealing with predicaments far worse than a ticket scandal or secret buyout for a failed football coach.

At this point, KU and K-State are among the Big 12 schools that appear headed for either a bad situation or a worse one. This is the next break between college sports’ strong and weak, and KU and K-State may find themselves on the wrong side of the fault line.

“You can drive yourself nuts trying to figure out exactly how it’s going to work,” says K-State athletic director John Currie. “But this is another moment in time there is going to be changes nationally.”

Follow the steps. If Missouri leaves, the Big 12 could likely remain viable with eleven teams or by adding TCU. If Missouri and either Nebraska or Colorado leave, it becomes more difficult and if all three are gone then its hard to see the Big 12 continuing to exist in any meaningful form.

Texas is the driving force here. If Texas is OK with whatever is left of the Big 12, the conference can probably keep going. But that’s not likely if the Big 12 is down to scraps, and if Texas bolts for the SEC or Pac-10, then KU and K-State are scrambling to save their own existence on the national scene.

Both Kansas schools have strong athletic programs and loyal fan bases, but in the new world of college athletics would be left in the cold because of geography and the state’s relatively small population.

The worst-case is still several steps away for KU and K-State, but now’s not a bad time to begin thinking and talking about it. Barring drastic measures by legislature, both schools would be knocked out of so-called power conferences. Kansas could become the test-case of a school trying to fund its athletic department primarily on men’s basketball.

This does more than put extra burden on KU and K-State. It potentially changes the complexion of Kansas City’s sports scene. Right now, our sports interests lean heavy on colleges. We’re locked in to get either the Big 12 football or basketball championship each year, remain in the rotation for NCAA basketball tournament games, and like to consider ourselves a national player in college sports.

So what happens if Missouri moves to the Big Ten, and the athletic programs at KU and K-State fall behind financially?

“It’s a little spooky,” says Max Urick, the former K-State athletic director.

Officials in and around the Big 12 continue to push their conference’s victories, pointing out that any financial disadvantage hasn’t shown up competitively yet.

That’s true, but the financial disadvantage is relatively new and could take time to show up on the football field or basketball court, driving the same kind of small-money, big-money split that we see in major league baseball.

If the worst ends up happening, revisionist history will blame the Big 12’s downfall on having a significantly smaller market share than the Big Ten and SEC, and perhaps the league’s decision not to start its own television network — like the Big Ten’s, which is driving its increasing revenue.

The Big Ten is credited by insiders as being more forward-thinking with its network, and blessed with a stronger cooperation among its members. Missouri officials have publicly expressed frustration with the conference’s bowl selection system, for instance, and most of the schools in the north feel Texas wields an unfair amount of power.

Which makes one scenario laid out by a college sports official even more interesting: Texas’ selfishness and power could be the one thing to keep the Big 12 together.

After all, other leagues are unlikely to grant Texas the kind of sweetheart deal it currently gets in the Big 12. So if it remains in Texas’ best self-interest to stay with the Big 12, its brand power could keep the conference together.

Crazy thought, right? The Big 12 could either be broken or saved by Texas, following its own interests either way.

To reach Sam Mellinger, call 816-234-4365, send e-mail to smellinger@kcstar.com or follow twitter.com/mellinger. For previous columns, go to KansasCity.com.
This is a very insightful article.

It provides a view of what an Eastern all sports league might have looked like if Joe Pa got his wish 30 years ago. Much like the Big XII it would have been a league in which Penn State got a disproportionate cut of the revenue & wielded a disproportionate amount of power - making the league inherently unstable just as the Big XII is.
A league anchored by Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia, Louisville and Cincinnati would be intriguing.
If the Pac-10 wants to go to 16 teams...a West-East division might work, and I would think Kansas might be one of those teams in the East division, depending on how far the Pac-10 wants to go. There are not many options in the Mountain West.
(05-03-2010 08:47 AM)MichaelSavage Wrote: [ -> ]Follow the steps. If Missouri leaves, the Big 12 could likely remain viable with eleven teams or by adding TCU. If Missouri and either Nebraska or Colorado leave, it becomes more difficult and if all three are gone then its hard to see the Big 12 continuing to exist in any meaningful form.

Texas is the driving force here. If Texas is OK with whatever is left of the Big 12, the conference can probably keep going. But that’s not likely if the Big 12 is down to scraps, and if Texas bolts for the SEC or Pac-10, then KU and K-State are scrambling to save their own existence on the national scene.

A couple of quotes in this article lead me to beleive the author is not in tune with what is going on as he may think. Obviously if the Big XII is sufferign from small markets, adding a team in its existing market will not help. And we know the issues with Texas and the SeCheatum.
I think you'd see a merger of the remnants of the Big 12 with most of the MWC, plus possibly a member or 2 from CUSA-West

Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Baylor
TCU
Houston
Tulsa
BYU
Colorado State
New Mexico
UNLV

something along those lines.
(05-03-2010 09:18 AM)superdeluxe Wrote: [ -> ]If the Pac-10 wants to go to 16 teams...a West-East division might work, and I would think Kansas might be one of those teams in the East division, depending on how far the Pac-10 wants to go. There are not many options in the Mountain West.


If the Big XII or Pac Ten want to join the Big Ten in the conference network race, Kansas will be a vital cog. I know everyone is enamoured with football, but basketball is actually what got the B10 Network many of their clearances, due to sheer number of games. If the Pac 10 wants a network, having Kansas, UCLA, and Arizona for basketball will be as important to getting clearances in many areas as having USC, Texas, and Oklahoma in football. The two go hand in hand.

Football will be what makes the most profit advertsising wise, but they may no thave the opportunity to get clearances and demand the rights fees without basketball.
It is strange, i could see kansas in the pac 16, sec, or new league with texas, texas A&M, Oklahoma joining them in either case...or ku could still sneak in the big 10 but i have a hard time seeing them left out given their hoops history, now ksu might not be so lucky.
(05-03-2010 09:10 AM)MichaelSavage Wrote: [ -> ]A league anchored by Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia, Louisville and Cincinnati would be intriguing.

In what way?
A Kansas/UCLA/Arizona basketball conference would be pretty special
Kansas and Kansas State are facing a leftover BE like dilemna. Interesting that the article didn't also mention Texas Tech or Iowa State as being there with them.
(05-03-2010 10:26 AM)buckaineer Wrote: [ -> ]Kansas and Kansas State are facing a leftover BE like dilemna. Interesting that the article didn't also mention Texas Tech or Iowa State as being there with them.
Baylor, too, but it was a Kansas City article.
(05-03-2010 09:23 AM)adcorbett Wrote: [ -> ]
(05-03-2010 09:18 AM)superdeluxe Wrote: [ -> ]If the Pac-10 wants to go to 16 teams...a West-East division might work, and I would think Kansas might be one of those teams in the East division, depending on how far the Pac-10 wants to go. There are not many options in the Mountain West.


If the Big XII or Pac Ten want to join the Big Ten in the conference network race, Kansas will be a vital cog. I know everyone is enamoured with football, but basketball is actually what got the B10 Network many of their clearances, due to sheer number of games. If the Pac 10 wants a network, having Kansas, UCLA, and Arizona for basketball will be as important to getting clearances in many areas as having USC, Texas, and Oklahoma in football. The two go hand in hand.

Football will be what makes the most profit advertsising wise, but they may no thave the opportunity to get clearances and demand the rights fees without basketball.

This is an excellent point.

Imagine if leagues were to come together & break away from the NCAA tournament & control their own basketball revenue the way that schools do in football. Postseason basketball makes far more money than the bowls, but the reason the schools don't see that kind of revenue is that the NCAA takes a big chunk of that to pay their own year round expenses. They don't take anything from the bowls because they don't have control of them. And that's exactly the way the schools want to keep it.

Basketball schedules for major programs are now routinely running well over 30 games for a season - almost triple the number of games compared to a football schedule. Schools that can fill up 20,000 seat arenas have income equivalent to football schools filling up 60,000 seat arenas + big TV dollars for games in prime time. I'm fudging this a little bit, but the point is that it's significant dollars. Not what Penn State & Michigan can get selling out 100,000 seat stadiums for 8 home games a years, but equivalent to the number of tickets a lot of major programs sell in the other revenue sport. Nothing to be sneezed at.
While I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere, KU has to be on the B10's minds for expansion as well. Their fan support is outstanding, they have a storied hoops program and would bring a large slice of metro KC. KU outdraws 5 of the 8 BE programs in football plus Miami VA, Duke, WF, BC and MD. Were 1K behind GT. KU is in the top 10 nationally for Men's Hoops attendance. Wouldn't be as big a loss for the B12 as Nebraska and Mizzou but sizeable nonetheless.
Mizzou/Nebraska/Pitt/Rutgers/Cuse to the Big 10

Texas/TAMU/OU/OSU to the SEC

Colorado/Texas Tech/Baylor/Kansas/Kansas State/Iowa State to the Pac-10

UCONN/WVU/Cincy/Louisville to the ACC

Boise/Houston/Tulsa/Nevada/Fresno St. to the MWC

Those are the five AQ conferences...

The remaining WAC/C-USA/SBC/Independents and USF are left to pick up the pieces and fend for themselves. The divide between the haves and have nots becomes even greater.

Don't think it would actually happen, as I don't see the Pac-10 going that far east and not all of those schools, most notably TTU really fit in the Pac-10. Also the SEC has said they aren't expanding, but if the movement to beyond 12 becomes the norm, this or something very close to this wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility.
(05-03-2010 11:40 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote: [ -> ]Mizzou/Nebraska/Pitt/Rutgers/Cuse to the Big 10

Texas/TAMU/OU/OSU to the SEC

Colorado/Texas Tech/Baylor/Kansas/Kansas State/Iowa State to the Pac-10

UCONN/WVU/Cincy/Louisville to the ACC

Boise/Houston/Tulsa/Nevada/Fresno St. to the MWC

Those are the five AQ conferences...

The remaining WAC/C-USA/SBC/Independents and USF are left to pick up the pieces and fend for themselves. The divide between the haves and have nots becomes even greater.

Don't think it would actually happen, as I don't see the Pac-10 going that far east and not all of those schools, most notably TTU really fit in the Pac-10. Also the SEC has said they aren't expanding, but if the movement to beyond 12 becomes the norm, this or something very close to this wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility.
You mean the ACC, right?
(05-03-2010 11:01 AM)onlinepole Wrote: [ -> ]While I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere, KU has to be on the B10's minds for expansion as well. Their fan support is outstanding, they have a storied hoops program and would bring a large slice of metro KC. KU outdraws 5 of the 8 BE programs in football plus Miami VA, Duke, WF, BC and MD. Were 1K behind GT. KU is in the top 10 nationally for Men's Hoops attendance. Wouldn't be as big a loss for the B12 as Nebraska and Mizzou but sizeable nonetheless.

Kansas would not be a bad addition, but monetarily, they do not bring more to the table than any of the others mentioned. Rutgers and Missouri bring markets. Same with Boston College and Maryland (since they have been mentioned). Syracuse and Uconn help with king size market (NYC), and sit in decent size markets in their own right. Notre Dame and Nebraska will increase advertising dollars. Texas does everything. There are only so many slots open. Pitt would be the most comparible option to what Kansas brings to the table, but Pitt brings research dollars that trump anything Kansas can do. The Big Ten is looking purely at football for expansion, and if they get better basketball it is purely a a bonus.

However, that does not mean that every other conference has to follow that model. Kansas has value if the Pac 10 ever goes with a network. They also have value if the Big East and Big XII leftovers merge. They may even have value to the SEC if they expand if they decide to go after additional basketball dollars as well. they just don't have value to the Big Ten, at least not enough to be one of five additions.
(05-03-2010 11:40 AM)MTPiKapp Wrote: [ -> ]Mizzou/Nebraska/Pitt/Rutgers/Cuse to the Big 10

Texas/TAMU/OU/OSU to the SEC

Colorado/Texas Tech/Baylor/Kansas/Kansas State/Iowa State to the Pac-10

UCONN/WVU/Cincy/Louisville to the ACC

Boise/Houston/Tulsa/Nevada/Fresno St. to the MWC

Those are the five AQ conferences...

The remaining WAC/C-USA/SBC/Independents and USF are left to pick up the pieces and fend for themselves. The divide between the haves and have nots becomes even greater.

Don't think it would actually happen, as I don't see the Pac-10 going that far east and not all of those schools, most notably TTU really fit in the Pac-10. Also the SEC has said they aren't expanding, but if the movement to beyond 12 becomes the norm, this or something very close to this wouldn't be beyond the realm of possibility.

I don't think pac-10 will go that far east to add Iowa State/Texas Tech and Baylor? The only way the Pac-10 goes that far east is if they add a Power in the midwest..a Oklahoma or Texas.
I think the worry on the part of Kansas/Kansas State is over blown.

Kansas has plenty enough men's basketball money to compete for the future. Unless college sports is entering an era of 50 million dollar a year head coaching salaries for men's basketball coaches they'll be fine.

Football too I wouldn't worry if I was KU. The way the Big XII is currently structured there is no way they are winning the Big XII football title.

If somehow the Big XII becomes a lessor football conference that might actually benefit KU giving it additional ability to win.

It would be intriguing if the Big East ended up picking up an Iowa State or a Kansas State if the Big XII goes into Big Ten/SEC/PAC-10 carve up mode.

That would really throw expansion prognosticators a loop if the Big East ended up reloading with Big XII instead of CUSA.

If the damage to the Big XII is heavy enough (greater than 6 teams) The Big XII would dissolve and the MWC would take its place as the 6th BCS conference opening its doors to stragglers like Texas Tech. A couple of strong football schools like TT in the MWC and that conference suddenly looks much more BCS like.
A Big 12 breakup would but Iowa State and Baylor in trouble, not Kansas or K-State.
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