CSNbbs

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5106766

Round and round the wheel goes!

Here is all I can say for sure:

-The Big Ten by expanding will be a bigger, deeper conference. No longer will the Big Ten be last among BCS conferences in football/basketball performance like they have been in most years.

-Whomever is raided by the Big Ten be it the Big East, Big XII, ACC they are going to be able to retain their BCS bid.

The ACC's core claim to the BCS lies in having Florida St and Miami in the conference, both of which appear to be safe. They can lose BC and Maryland and keep on ticking.

In the case of a mass raid against the Big East, or Big XII, they can always reload with TCU to help BCS rankings. TCU to the Big XII is very probable, but TCU to the Big East is a possibiliy if the league decides to add St. Louis and Memphis. The BE passed on TCU last time around but the way the BCS auto criteria is structured today and the growth in Horned Frogs budget they are very plausible.

-CUSA is almost certainly in for a big hit. CUSA's tie with the SEC in the Liberty has slid from #6 pick to #8/#9. CUSA then has the Dallas Classic 2 out of every 4 years vs. Big Ten #7. The Big Ten in search of better tie-ins is going to shove CUSA out of its bowl games.

-The MAC will be better off B10 post expansion. Rick Cryst always said that being in the backyard of the Big Ten was a good backyard to be in. The Big Ten will be better, MAC SOS will be higher in football.

The Temple scheduling issue can be solved if they find another conference in the shakeup. They have really gotten their house in order since 2003. Their attendance is not there, but with a lease at the 70,000 seat LINC is in a very good position.

Also with CUSA getting leveled that will help the MAC relatively in the landscape. I can see the MAC vs. CUSA champ in the GMAC bowl as I'm projecting WKU/MTSU in CUSA and out of the S.Belt, weakening the Sun Belt further.

Airport if Big East hits the Big East hard and ACC mops up the pieces to match the Big 10 move, there will be no Big East to retain a bid.

(04-18-2010 08:28 AM)arkstfan Wrote: [ -> ]Airport if Big East hits the Big East hard and ACC mops up the pieces to match the Big 10 move, there will be no Big East to retain a bid.

That is true but I think that is highly unlikely.

Based on the reports I have read the Big Ten appears interested in raiding multiple football conferences. In the very least, if the Big Ten pulls out the trump card of taking 5 Big East teams, that will force Notre Dame's hand, thus we are talking a maximum of 4 teams leaving the BE to the Big Ten.

Looking at things further, in the last round of realignment Boston College was picked for its TV market to join the ACC, meaning that it would be one of the first in line to join the Big Ten if it looked that direction.

The ACC has said that it has zero desire to move beyond 12 at this point. If Boston College leaves, they'll have to add somebody but I think its highly unlikely they expand to 16 and add UC, UL, USF, WVU after the Big Ten takes Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, UConn as some have speculated. They would leave UC, UL and USF alone to rebuild the Big East while WVU would join the ACC replacing BC.

The Big Ten expansion is going to be more conservative than some are predicting. I see it being Rutgers, BC, and Notre Dame. There really isn't much value in pushing things beyond 14 yet. I think adding Rutgers/BC is a must to entice Notre Dame into the fold and take full advantage of the East Coast TV markets.

My prediction on realignment:

Big Ten (adds Rutgers, BC, ND)
ACC (adds WVU)
Big East (adds Memphis, Temple, Butler)
MWC (adds Boise State)
CUSA (adds Florida Int.)
WAC (adds UTSA, Tx State)
SBC (adds USA, Jax State)

The Big Ten has been planning their move for years now. That's why they announced their intention to expand when they did. Why broadcast your intent unless you're ready to make a move? Why possibly allow some other conference to make a pre-emptive move against you? They're moving way too fast to have just decided to expand a few months ago.

seriously doubt the big 10 is adding rutgers. syracuse and pitt are more likely eastern schools and bc would make sense from a media market angle. rutgers isn't really an nyc tv draw and adding piscataway to the mix isn't a huge draw either (gotta love that road trip from minnesota).

i'd see something like missouri, notre dame and pitt as being the best big14 move unless they go to the big16 and push east w bc and uconn or syracuse

(04-19-2010 10:29 AM)pono Wrote: [ -> ]seriously doubt the big 10 is adding rutgers. syracuse and pitt are more likely eastern schools and bc would make sense from a media market angle. rutgers isn't really an nyc tv draw and adding piscataway to the mix isn't a huge draw either (gotta love that road trip from minnesota).

Rutgers is now averaging 50k and has a stadium designed for eventual expansion to 80,000 seats. They have long term potential to be at the 70k+ Big Ten level.

Syracuse is only averaging 30-40k right now and have been in the basement of the Big East for years. That is going to have a negative impact on their desirability this time around. They traditionally were one of the top draws in the East along with Penn State but it appears they have maxed out the fanbase as a smaller, remote school.

The goal is to find schools who make would bring in more money than they would take by splitting the revenue. The Big Ten Network makes $1 per resident of a Big Ten state, and an additional $0.10 per school if there are multiple Big Ten schools in that state. Therefore, Rutgers does NOT bring in money from the New York media market, even if they are closest to the city.

Syracuse is in New York, the 3rd most populous state in the country. Rutgers is in New Jersey, the 11th most populous state. NY has 19.5 million residents. NJ has 8.7 million, not even half of NY. That means that Syracuse brings in at least twice as much TV money as Rutgers. They would bring in more TV money than any current Big Ten school, so if revenue is shared evenly the other schools would make more money too.

(04-19-2010 11:32 AM)uakronkid Wrote: [ -> ]The goal is to find schools who make would bring in more money than they would take by splitting the revenue. The Big Ten Network makes $1 per resident of a Big Ten state, and an additional $0.10 per school if there are multiple Big Ten schools in that state. Therefore, Rutgers does NOT bring in money from the New York media market, even if they are closest to the city.

Syracuse is in New York, the 3rd most populous state in the country. Rutgers is in New Jersey, the 11th most populous state. NY has 19.5 million residents. NJ has 8.7 million, not even half of NY. That means that Syracuse brings in at least twice as much TV money as Rutgers. They would bring in more TV money than any current Big Ten school, so if revenue is shared evenly the other schools would make more money too.

Syracuse though is not the land grant school for New York and Rutgers is. That is a big distinction.

(04-19-2010 11:32 AM)uakronkid Wrote: [ -> ]Syracuse is in New York, the 3rd most populous state in the country. Rutgers is in New Jersey, the 11th most populous state. NY has 19.5 million residents. NJ has 8.7 million, not even half of NY. That means that Syracuse brings in at least twice as much TV money as Rutgers. They would bring in more TV money than any current Big Ten school, so if revenue is shared evenly the other schools would make more money too.

Sorry, but these conclusions don't follow logically. If you can show me Syracuse TV money, that will nail it. But your speculation is filled with flaws.

This doesn't make sense from a short term perspective. The numbers don't work out.

There must be a longer term vision. I will continue to speculate that it's all about a fball playoff, designed for the top 65-72 teams.

Math time. As I said, the Big Ten gets $1 for a Big Ten school state, and an additional $0.10 for more than one school per state.

Current Big Ten TV revenue (using this for population numbers):
Illinois (UI + NU) $14,201,450
Pennsylvania $12,604,767
Ohio $11,542,645
Michigan (UM + MSU) $10,966,670
Indiana (IU + PU) $7,065,424
Wisconsin $5,654,774
Minnesota $5,266,214
Iowa $3,007,856

Added up, this gives a total of $70,309,800 for TV revenue. One 11th of that is $6,391,800. One 12th of the total is $5,859,150. So subtracting those numbers ($6,391,800 - $5,859,150 = $532650) gives you the break-even cost for adding a new member. This means that any new Big Ten state with a population of more 532,650 would generate more revenue than it costs to share with a 12th school. Adding a school in an existing Big Ten state would require it to have a population of at least 5,326,500. And that's just to break even. They want to maximize revenue, not just break even.

The candidates (FBS-level AAU members in contiguous states, and Texas and Notre Dame) and how much they would bring in individually are as follows. I took the amount of additional revenue they would generate, and subtracted the break-even cost. This is only if the Big Ten added one school.

New States:
Texas $24,782,302 - $532,650 = $24,249,652
Syracuse $19,541,453 - $532,650 = $19,008,803
Buffalo $19,541,453 - $532,650 = $19,008,803
Rutgers $8,707,739 - $532,650 = $8,175,089
Missouri $5,987,580 - $532,650 = $5,454,930
Maryland $5,699,478 - $532,650 = $5,166,828
Nebraska $1,796,619 - $532,650 = $1,263,969


Existing States:
Pittsburgh $1,260,477 - $532,650 = $727,827
Notre Dame $6,423,113 - $532,650 = $109,661
Iowa State $300,786 - $532,650 = -$231,864

So there you have it. If the Big Ten only wanted to add one school to get to 12, it's Texas, Syracuse, or Buffalo and then everyone else way behind. Notre Dame brings almost nothing to the table by this metric, but you can't really measure their national appeal.

I lived in upstate New York (read, everywhere in New York that is not near New York City or "Long Island") and Syracuse would be a perfect expansion partner for the Big 10 because of the total lack of quality D1 programs in the area. The only other D1 programs are Buffalo and Cornell for football and when I lived there, every Saturday ABC showed a Big 10 game (mostly Ohio State and Eddie George). The Orange are more the team of that part of the state then they are a local Syracuse phenemona.

My guess is that it will be Pitt or Syracuse before Rutgers or Texas.

In the 16-team scenario adding Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Syracuse, and Rutgers brings in massive amounts of cash. Far more than any other proposed realistic combination. We're talking a 84% increase in TV revenue. Each of those teams brings in far more money than it costs to feed an additional mouth, even with Texas and A&M in the same state.

If they're going to 14 then Syracuse, Rutgers, and Missouri is the best option. Texas and A&M are a package, and along with Cuse together they could make way more money than the other combo, but I just don't see that scenario happening.

Don't forget, the Big Ten only requires 8 of 11 "yes" votes to make a move. It has to be unanimous in most other leagues.

As normally conservative as the B10 is when they announce they are discussing expansion, it's going to be colossal. They will go to 16 teams; UT and A&M have been courted and if they say yes than the B12 will be the conference that will bear the brunt of the move not the BE. If this happens expect the other 3 to be

Nebraska
ND
Rutgers, if ND says no then Mizzou gets added and the Big 12 becomes the Big Seven because with UT, A&M, Nebraska and Mizzou gone; Colorado will join the P10 along with Utah provided the other 9 Pac10 programs can get Stanford to vote yes, which may not happen. If Stanford says No than watch for the B12 to look East to pick off BE teams that are in major markets like:
1) USF (Tampa)
2)Lville (Lville) and
3) Cincy

If Utah doesn't join the P10 then the B12 will invite them along with TCU to get to 12 teams. The MWC adds Boise to partially make up for the loss of Utah & TCU.

Big East football will be down to 4 members(Pitt, WVA, Syracuse & UConn) and will have alot of scrambling to do if they want to get back to the 8 members they have now. UCF, ECU & Memphis would be the 3 most likely candidates.

(04-19-2010 01:57 PM)bopol Wrote: [ -> ]I lived in upstate New York (read, everywhere in New York that is not near New York City or "Long Island") and Syracuse would be a perfect expansion partner for the Big 10 because of the total lack of quality D1 programs in the area. The only other D1 programs are Buffalo and Cornell for football and when I lived there, every Saturday ABC showed a Big 10 game (mostly Ohio State and Eddie George).

Ok, if they're already broadcasting the Big 10 to that area, what does Syracuse have to offer?

Quote:My guess is that it will be Pitt or Syracuse before Rutgers or Texas.

I can't see UT leaving the Big 12.

None of these bring a lot to the table at this stage. This is a set up for something bigger.

(04-17-2010 10:03 PM)Airport KC Wrote: [ -> ]Here is all I can say for sure:

-The Big Ten by expanding will be a bigger, deeper conference. No longer will the Big Ten be last among BCS conferences in football/basketball performance like they have been in most years.

They never have been. What have you been smoking?

(04-19-2010 06:17 PM)niubrad00 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-17-2010 10:03 PM)Airport KC Wrote: [ -> ]Here is all I can say for sure:

-The Big Ten by expanding will be a bigger, deeper conference. No longer will the Big Ten be last among BCS conferences in football/basketball performance like they have been in most years.

They never have been. What have you been smoking?

In recent years the Big Ten has lagged the Big East in on the field performance in both football and basketball, top to bottom.

I'd be very surprised to see Colorado and Missouri leave the B12. Both are former Big 8 teams and those rivalries run deep. The B8/12 is their identity. Texas is another story, though. Not tied too strongly to the B12. But even with the piles of $$ coming in, it doesn't seem to make much sense for them to join a northern/midwestern league, as travel costs (total for all sports) would be enormous.

This thread is all speculation and probably mindless.