CSNbbs

Full Version: MAC bowl outlook 11/21/09
You're currently viewing a stripped down version of our content. View the full version with proper formatting.
Bowl prospects:

In: CMU, Temple, NIU, Ohio

Bubble:

Bowling Green (50%)- The Falcon's are helping themselves by taking care of buisness and have a good shot at finishing 7-5 with Toledo at home the remaing hurdle. What is hurting things is schools from other conferences are also taking care of buisness and by my estimation there could be as few as 3 at-large slots available after the games that are contracted/backed up are accounted for. 7 wins should do it but their is a slight chance that it won't be enough.

Toledo (1%)- Toledo has a very slim chance of sneaking into a bowl as a 6-6 team. One thing in Toledo's favor is that they have a marquee win against Colorado and that should give them the nod over other MAC 6-6 teams. They would have to win plus: 1)Colorado St beats Wyoming, UConn loses to Syracuse & UCF, Kansas loses to Missouri, Army loses to Navy, La-Monroe loses to MTSU, and La-Lafayette loses to Troy. There is going to be a MAXIMUM of 6 unfilled slot this year and already there is going to be 1 to MAC, 1 to MTSU, 1 to UCLA, 1 to ND, 1 Boise if not BCS. Absolutely everything would have to go right for Toledo.

WMU (0%)- No chance. It would be nice to see the Broncos' bowl eligible as it will count for the MAC toward the certification criteria. A good shot at 6-6 with BSU on the slate.

Kent (0%)- No chance. Doug Martin does have a chance to get his team bowl eligible, not that there would be any takers with their massive fanbase. The MAC has never had more than 7 schools bowl eligible and they have a chance to have a record 8 this year (if UT beats BG).

Out: Akron, EMU, Ball St, Miami, Buffalo
Projected bowl situation

BCS:

NC game, Auto qualifers, SEC #2, Big Ten #2, Big XII #2, TCU

-I know some have said Boise in over Oklahoma State but I don't feel very confident about that given they were left out last year.

At-Large openings:

Boise
Texas
Mobile
Detroit
DC (2)

-I believe on contract the MAC is to back up the ACC and CUSA if 7 wins will backup Army

Filling the at-larges:

Boise (Bowling Green)
Texas (Boise State)
Mobile (Troy)
Detroit (Notre Dame?)
DC (Temple/Marshall)

-Assuming the Texas bowl is available with OK St going to BCS, Boise will be left without any good bowl options. They could I guess play in Hawaii, or why not play in Houston against Navy.

-Given the clinic Ohio put on against NIU and the 11am start time for Temple in Athens I now like them in the East. That would put the Bobcats at a higher level bowl but its hard to say which. If ND goes to the MCB, who ever wins the MAC will want that matchup.

-Troy will probably trade up for the GMAC since they play in state, sending MTSU to New Orleans.

MAC Bowls:

GMAC (Central Mich.)
International (Ohio)
Detroit (NIU)
Eagle Bank (Temple)
H-Bowl (Bowling Green)

This is just a flat out guess. Its so going to be dependent upon 1) who wins the MAC and 2) if the ND matchup materializes in Detroit.
(11-22-2009 08:29 PM)Airport KC Wrote: [ -> ]Projected bowl situation

BCS:

NC game, Auto qualifers, SEC #2, Big Ten #2, Big XII #2, TCU

-I know some have said Boise in over Oklahoma State but I don't feel very confident about that given they were left out last year.

At-Large openings:

Boise
Texas
Mobile
Detroit
DC (2)

-I believe on contract the MAC is to back up the ACC and CUSA if 7 wins will backup Army

Filling the at-larges:

Boise (Bowling Green)
Texas (Boise State)
Mobile (Troy)
Detroit (Notre Dame?)
DC (Temple/Marshall)

-Assuming the Texas bowl is available with OK St going to BCS, Boise will be left without any good bowl options. They could I guess play in Hawaii, or why not play in Houston against Navy.

-Given the clinic Ohio put on against NIU and the 11am start time for Temple in Athens I now like them in the East. That would put the Bobcats at a higher level bowl but its hard to say which. If ND goes to the MCB, who ever wins the MAC will want that matchup.

-Troy will probably trade up for the GMAC since they play in state, sending MTSU to New Orleans.

MAC Bowls:

GMAC (Central Mich.)
International (Ohio)
Detroit (NIU)
Eagle Bank (Temple)
H-Bowl (Bowling Green)

This is just a flat out guess. Its so going to be dependent upon 1) who wins the MAC and 2) if the ND matchup materializes in Detroit.


Both Boise and TCU will get BCS bids, almost everyone is saying that now. Boise is a better TV draw than Okie State. CUSA has a backup agreement with the Texas bowl.
In order to exercise both Texas and DC backups that would require that CUSA has 7 schools with 7 wins and that is NOT going to happen.

Marshall is sitting at 6-5
UAB is sitting at 5-6 w/ 7-4 UCF left to play

I don't think UAB is even going to be eligible.

-If Boise does go BCS, Texas will be filled by a Big XII school
Upsets in championship or final games could end the Big11's chances at a second BCS bid.

6 autoqualifiers:
ACC Champion: (12-1) GaTech or (10-3) Clemson
BigEast Champion: (12-0) Cincinnati or (11-1) Pitt
Big11 Champion: (10-2) OhioState
Big12 Champion: (13-0) Texas or (10-3) Nebraska
Pac10 Champion: (10-2) Oregon or (9-3) OregonSt
SEC Champion: (13-0) Florida or (13-0) Alabama

4 At-Large BCS bids:
Top Contenders: - roughly in order
(12-1) Alabama/Florida (with loss in SEC-C, but win in final game against Auburn/FloridaSt respectively)
(12-1) Texas (if it loses to Nebraska in Big12-C, but wins against TexasA&M)
(12-0) TCU (if it beats NewMexico)
(11-1) Cincinnati (if it loses to Pitt, but beats Illinois)
(13-0) BoiseSt (if it beats (8-3) Nevada and NMSU)
(10-2) PennState (or Iowa, but I think the fact that Iowa is limping in would favor PennState)
(10-2) Oklahoma State (if Texas wins the Big12-C and it beats Oklahoma)

If (11-2) GaTech loses the ACC-C, they will NOT get an at-large BCS bid.

If Cincinnati beats (10-2) Pitt, the BigEast does not get a second BCS bid.

None of these teams who still have a chance at an auto-bid would get an at-large bid if they failed to get the auto-bid (with a championship or key game loss):
(9-4) Clemson, (9-4) Nebraska, (9-3) Oregon, (8-4) OregonSt.

Other SEC teams are not eligible since no conference can have 3 BCS bids.
Enjoy reading all the bowl projections, guys.

In today's update, Stewie Mandel projects BG to be a-bowling (gottaq beat UT), and ND vs CMU in the Pizza Bowl. I tend to think that ND would turn down the offer to play the MAC in Detroit, but you never know. I like the MAC projected match-up projected vs ECU in the EagleBank bowl, but you'd think that Temple would be a better choice there (Mandel sez NIU). Guess that's 'cause the GMAC and Pizza Bowls will pick first and second, and one may want Temple. Most all forecasts seem to have OU in the I-Bowl.
I don't see NIU in Detroit.
Pizza Bowl would not take the 4th best (questionable) team in the MAC.
http://www.mahalo.com/bowl-projections

Obviously some are dated and won't happen
I'm hearing GMAC has a back-up deal with the WAC for this season only. If Boise gets passed over for the BCS (quite likely), I think Idaho is headed to the GMAC.
I would think that the GMAC would be better off (attendance wise) to bring in a SunBelt team to play the MAC.
It's interesting that both ESPN prognosticators have Notre Dame playing a MAC team - Mark Schlabach says CMU vs. Irish in GMAC; Bruce Feldman says NIU vs. Irish in Little Caesars Bowl

Hard to believe the Irish would accept a bowl bid against a MAC team. I think Central would match up well with them, too. Would be great to see LeFevour cap his career with a 500-yard, 6 TD bowl victory over the Irish.
(11-23-2009 03:18 PM)BGSUalum1987 Wrote: [ -> ]It's interesting that both ESPN prognosticators have Notre Dame playing a MAC team - Mark Schlabach says CMU vs. Irish in GMAC; Bruce Feldman says NIU vs. Irish in Little Caesars Bowl

Hard to believe the Irish would accept a bowl bid against a MAC team. I think Central would match up well with them, too. Would be great to see LeFevour cap his career with a 500-yard, 6 TD bowl victory over the Irish.

I too fine it very... hard to see ND playing a MAC team in a bowl 04-jawdrop
(11-23-2009 03:18 PM)BGSUalum1987 Wrote: [ -> ]It's interesting that both ESPN prognosticators have Notre Dame playing a MAC team - Mark Schlabach says CMU vs. Irish in GMAC; Bruce Feldman says NIU vs. Irish in Little Caesars Bowl

Hard to believe the Irish would accept a bowl bid against a MAC team. I think Central would match up well with them, too. Would be great to see LeFevour cap his career with a 500-yard, 6 TD bowl victory over the Irish.

One does not understand the machinations of Chicagoland if one projects an NIU / ND gridiron match-up.
Airport you are right. Troy can opt out of the NO Bowl. I found this on the Middle Tennessee Board

Quote:"When the SBC est the secondary ties they negotiated with the New Orleans Bowl that the champion could seek other bowl options at the benefit of the schools and bowls, so long as the Belt has another 7-win team. I don't know if the NOB has to approve it, but if Troy wants out and the NOB wants Troy that will all happen behind closed doors. I think Troy would like to play in the GMAC and the GMAC would like to have them. Troy would like Birmingham too, but that ain't going to happen, because those are going to be filled as scheduled. They would like St. Pete too, but as mentioned previously there's a very good chance that's going to be an all-Florida game."
Reference URL's