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Full Version: MAC bowl outlook 11/7/09
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Bowl prospects:

In: CMU, Temple

Bubble:

Northern ILL (95%)- NIU only needs to win 1 of its remaining MAC games (Ball St, @Ohio, @CMU) down the stretch and they look to be rolling. That win over Purdue is looking more impressive now that they've beaten both OSU and Michigan this year with a chance at bowl eligibility.

Ohio (65%)- Ohio is sitting on 6 wins but the upcoming schedule will be difficult @Buffalo, NIU, Temple. The Bobcats now control their destiny in the East race with a Kent St loss. The final two games against NIU and Temple at home are going to be difficult so this Tuesday's showdown @ Buffalo is going to be key for sealing a bowl game.

Kent (35%)- Kent's chances of making a bowl have taken a dramatic hit this week by not taking care of buisness at Akron. To take the East, Kent will have to 1) beat Temple and Buffalo, 2) Have both Temple and Ohio lose 1 other additonal game down the stretch. Not very good odds of that.

Bowling Green (25%)- With the Falcons remaining schedule of @Miami, Akron, and Toledo there is a chance for BG to heat up and take those games en-route to 7 wins and a bowl. The MAC has never had 6 schools make a bowl and it would be a big accomplishment to see that this year.

Toledo (15%)- Toledo needs 3 wins but with a game @CMU on the schedule plus EMU, and @BG its not going to be an easy task. One thing in Toledo's favor is that they have a marquee win against Colorado and that should give them the nod over some 6-6 teams.

Buffalo (5%)- Buffalo's chances at making a bowl at 6-6 are hanging by a thread with upcoming games against Ohio, @Miami, @Kent State. If Ohio, BG, Kent, and Toledo all fail to reach 7 wins, Buffalo could back its way into a bowl with a 6-6 record.

WMU (5%)- The Broncos like Buffalo have a very slight chance of backing their way into a bowl with a 6-6 record. Their 2 remaining games are @EMU, Ball State both doable.

Out: Akron, EMU, Ball St, Miami
Good stuff.
Kent State just needs to win out. If they get some help, they can win the East via the tiebreakers, but if they can take this week off and bounce back, they can finish 7-5. Things still look favorable for five bowls for the MAC.
No MAC team will reach a bowl with a 6-6 record. In BCS and other Non-BCS conferences with high number for bowl tie ins yes, but not the MAC. It takes atleast 7 and perhaps 8 wins to lock down a bowl in the MAC. Temple and CMU need probably 1 more win each to be 100% in. 7-5 with 5-3 MAC record won't win either division which means at-large to International, other or no bowl. Just being bowl elgible doesn't garantee a MAC school a bowl. MAC only has three bowls. Temple, CMU, NIU and Ohio are in if they win out.....yes that would be a lock if that happens; however, this is the MAC every one is dangerous on any given day. There are no gimmies in this conference. Miami and Akron proved that this week.
(11-07-2009 09:45 PM)OUBOBCATJOHN Wrote: [ -> ]No MAC team will reach a bowl with a 6-6 record. In BCS and other Non-BCS conferences with high number for bowl tie ins yes, but not the MAC. It takes atleast 7 and perhaps 8 wins to lock down a bowl in the MAC. Temple and CMU need probably 1 more win each to be 100% in. 7-5 with 5-3 MAC record won't win either division which means at-large to International, other or no bowl. Just being bowl elgible doesn't garantee a MAC school a bowl. MAC only has three bowls. Temple, CMU, NIU and Ohio are in if they win out.....yes that would be a lock if that happens; however, this is the MAC every one is dangerous on any given day. There are no gimmies in this conference. Miami and Akron proved that this week.

Last year NIU got there at 6-6
Projecting who will go where:

BCS at-larges: TCU, SEC, Big Ten, PAC-10

Bowls with an open slot:

Boise (MWC will send a team to the BCS)
Eagle Bank (Army with 6 losses)
Detroit (Big Ten will place 2 in the BCS)
Mobile (ACC on pace to qualify 8)
Poinsettia (PAC-10 will place 2 in the BCS)

To fill these spots I project:

Boise (MAC team)
Eagle Bank (will take 7 win Temple)
Detroit (Big XII should supply an extra 6-6 team)
Mobile (7 win SBC team)
Poinsettia (will take Boise St if not in BCS)

MAC bowl games:

GMAC (Central Michigan)
Detroit (Northern Ill.)
International (Ohio)
Eagle Bank (Temple)
Boise (Bowling Green)

BG would likely get the nod at 7 or 6 wins for the last bowl opening with a marquee win over SBC champ Troy. I think BG is going to have the offense to win 2 out of its remaining 3 MAC games against sub .500 opponents.
The Big 10 isn't going to put 2 in the BCS this year.
(11-07-2009 09:30 PM)KStud Wrote: [ -> ]Kent State just needs to win out. If they get some help, they can win the East via the tiebreakers, but if they can take this week off and bounce back, they can finish 7-5. Things still look favorable for five bowls for the MAC.

Winning out for Kent will be no easy task playing Temple and Bufflo down the stretch but let's say they do and go 7-5.

Temple would still clinch the East with a win against Ohio. Ohio can clinch the East win wins against Temple/Buffalo if it loses to NIU because of a better East record.

If I were to put the odds for the East at this point:

Temple (80%)
Ohio (12%)
Kent (8%)

Temple has a great running game and should be able to take Ohio which is all they need to do to win the East.

Ohio controls their own destiny, thus a slight edge over Kent.
(11-07-2009 09:53 PM)7 Wrote: [ -> ]The Big 10 isn't going to put 2 in the BCS this year.

Yes they will.

Ohio State will be in the top 10 next week and should be favored to win against Iowa and Michigan down the stretch.

Penn State is slightly outside of BCS range currently but with Michigan St and Indiana to round out the season will be able to get 2 more wins to place them back in.

Iowa too is still out their on the radar screen.

I don't think the Big XII will do it this year unless Oklahoma State wins out. The PAC-10 is in a better position with USC and Oregon if they surge down the stretch.
(11-07-2009 09:45 PM)OUBOBCATJOHN Wrote: [ -> ]No MAC team will reach a bowl with a 6-6 record. In BCS and other Non-BCS conferences with high number for bowl tie ins yes, but not the MAC. It takes atleast 7 and perhaps 8 wins to lock down a bowl in the MAC. Temple and CMU need probably 1 more win each to be 100% in.

I don't understand where you think a MAC school would need 8 wins to ensure a bowl.

Clearly, the only 7 win at-large teams out there are going to be from the MAC and the SBC. They have to get placed first in at-large opportunities.

The SBC is going to have 4 schools with 7 wins (max) with 1 of them heading to the GMAC or Detroit to fill an opening.

There are going to be plenty of openings for 4-5 MAC schools with 7 wins. I only think a 6-6 MAC school will make a bowl if somehow the MAC ends up with less than 5 schools with 7 wins.
If Ohio loses at Buffalo (possible) or Temple loses at Akron (possible) this week, then Kent State still is very much in play for the MAC East title.

They would just need to beat Temple and Buffalo and hope the team with two losses wins the OU-Temple matchup on the last day. Kent State would win a three-way tie through head to head at 6-2. The bigger mess would be if BG wins out because BG and Temple don't play.
(11-07-2009 11:52 PM)KStud Wrote: [ -> ]If Ohio loses at Buffalo (possible) or Temple loses at Akron (possible) this week, then Kent State still is very much in play for the MAC East title.

You're admitting now that you need help beyond winning out.
Uhhhhhhhh, read my first post in this thread.

I said "Kent State just needs to win out." in reference to bowl outlook which would put them at 7-5 and in good position for the MAC fifth bowl.

Then I said, "If they get some help, they can win the East via the tiebreakers."

Maybe you should be the one to explain why on multiple posts you suggested Buffalo, WMU and BG could all go to bowls with a 6-6 record, only to change your stance when someone mentioned how unlikely that would be.
Only 3 BCS teams and Independents have been eliminated from bowls at this point.
Maryland, Washington State and Vanderbilt have officially been sent home for the holidays. Most teams have 2 or 3 games left. Their will be a lot of 7-5 and 6-6 BCS teams this year.

The problem for the MAC is the Big Ten looks to have the biggest risk of not filling their slot for the LCPB. Michigan could be heading to the Little Ceasars Pizza Bowl. That would be the biggest break for the MAC getting the Maize and Blue against the #2. If they can lock in Michigan before the MAC title game that would increase the stakes a bit.
(11-08-2009 01:16 AM)KStud Wrote: [ -> ]Maybe you should be the one to explain why on multiple posts you suggested Buffalo, WMU and BG could all go to bowls with a 6-6 record, only to change your stance when someone mentioned how unlikely that would be.

Did you see the percentages attached to those scenarios for the 6-6 schools?
(11-08-2009 01:58 AM)OUBOBCATJOHN Wrote: [ -> ]Only 3 BCS teams and Independents have been eliminated from bowls at this point.
Maryland, Washington State and Vanderbilt have officially been sent home for the holidays. Most teams have 2 or 3 games left. Their will be a lot of 7-5 and 6-6 BCS teams this year.

Here is something interesting, a list of BCS schools not yet bowl eligible:

South Florida 6-2
Rutgers 6-2
North Carolina 6-3
Kansas State 6-4
Duke 5-4
Kansas 5-4
Georgia 5-4
Tennessee 5-4
Kentucky 5-4
Missouri 5-4
Oklahoma 5-4
Texas A&M 5-4
Iowa State 5-5
Michigan State 5-5
Minnesota 5-5
Michigan 5-5

What is at the top of the list, schools that have 6 wins but are not bowl eligible. With guarentees going up for nAQ games, BCS schools have decided to cut costs by playing 2 FCS schools.

And I have counted the numbers of bowl eligible schools that we can expect out of BCS conferences. You have to look at who the schools have yet to play to get a true project. Aside from the Big XII qualifying 9 most likely, BCS conferences will be lucky to fill their obligated slots.

There is 0% chance of surplus 7-5 BCS teams.
(11-08-2009 01:58 AM)OUBOBCATJOHN Wrote: [ -> ]Michigan could be heading to the Little Ceasars Pizza Bowl.

It would be pretty cool for CMU to beat both Michigan State and Michigan in the same year.
(11-08-2009 09:19 AM)Bobcat110 Wrote: [ -> ]
(11-08-2009 01:58 AM)OUBOBCATJOHN Wrote: [ -> ]Michigan could be heading to the Little Ceasars Pizza Bowl.

It would be pretty cool for CMU to beat both Michigan State and Michigan in the same year.

Yeah, but Michigan's chances of going bowling now hinge on beating either Wisconsin in Madison or Ohio State at home. I don't see Michigan stopping Wisconsin's running game, and Ohio State's defense will once again give them fits, I'm thinking. Tate Forcier appears to have hit the freshman wall.
I expect seven bowl eligible teams from the Big 10, but it might only be six. And if Penn State wins at Michigan State, I expect them to be a BCS at-large. That puts the Iowa/OSU loser in Orlando and Wisconsin in Tampa. Minnesota will get to six wins this week. Michigan has to upset someone, Illinois has to upset Cincinnati, Indiana has to upset Penn State. Michigan State could be eligible this week if they beat Purdue, but they could lose there. Then, Purdue could still lose to Indiana the next week.

I don't mind the Big Ten not filling the Detroit bowl because that takes another at-large team out of the mix.

Question: Is there any way the Detroit organizers could wheel and deal to get the extra Big 12 team there?
(11-08-2009 05:19 PM)KStud Wrote: [ -> ]I expect seven bowl eligible teams from the Big 10, but it might only be six. And if Penn State wins at Michigan State, I expect them to be a BCS at-large. That puts the Iowa/OSU loser in Orlando and Wisconsin in Tampa. Minnesota will get to six wins this week. Michigan has to upset someone, Illinois has to upset Cincinnati, Indiana has to upset Penn State. Michigan State could be eligible this week if they beat Purdue, but they could lose there. Then, Purdue could still lose to Indiana the next week.

I don't mind the Big Ten not filling the Detroit bowl because that takes another at-large team out of the mix.

Question: Is there any way the Detroit organizers could wheel and deal to get the extra Big 12 team there?

Penn St. isn't going to make a BCS bowl game not sitting at #19 right now in the BCS, with Iowa in front of them at the 10 spot. So even if Iowa loses next week, Penn St. is not going to jump them or the seven other team in front of them. The Big Ten only going to get one team in the BCS.
Here is what I think the breakdown will be:

SEC 2 (Florida, Alabama)
Big 12 1 (Texas)
Big East 1 (Cincy)
PAC 10 2 (USC, Oregon)
ACC 1 (Georgia Tech)
MWC 1 (TCU)
Big 10 1 (Ohio St.)
WAC 1 (Boise St.)
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