1. CMU 7-2 5-0 west leader and bowl elgible. game vs NIU left
2. Temple 6-2 4-0 east leader and bowl elgible. Kent St and at Ohio left
3. Ohio 6-3 4-1 bowl elgible. must play @UB, NIU, Temple.
4. NIU 5-3 3-1 big games at Ohio and CMU.
5. Kent st 5-4 4-1 tie breaker over Ohio with at Akron, at Temple,UB
6. WMU 4-5 3-3 They gotta win out.
7. Toledo 4-5 2-3 They gotta win out
8. BGSU 3-5 2-2 They gotta win out
9. Buffalo 3-5 1-3 They gotta win out.
It interesting how Kent State has really come along the last couple of weeks with victories over solid MAC schools.
Chances at a bowl:
CMU (100%)- They already have 7 wins and a marquee victory over Michigan State
Temple (99%)- They now have a marquee victory with the Navy win. Who would have thought after they lost the opener to Villanova that Temple would go on to have a big season? With Miami, @Akron, Kent, @Ohio on the schedule Temple is all but assured of 7 wins.
Northern ILL (90%)- NIU is going to be favored heavily in 2 of its remaining games (EMU, Ball St) and that should be plenty enough to but the Huskies in a bowl.
Ohio (70%)- Ohio is sitting on 6 wins but the upcoming schedule will be difficult @Buffalo, NIU, Temple. With the way the Bobcats have played the last couple of weeks I could see 0-3 down the stretch versus these clubs. However that being said the loss to Kent is looking better now that they are a MAC contender and BSU narrow win was on the road, and winning on the road is always difficult.
Kent (60%)- Kent has a realistic shot now sitting on 5 wins of making a bowl. They'll have to go at least 2-1 down the stretch (@Akron, @Temple, Buffalo) so if they lose to Temple they don't have much margin for error.
Bowling Green (20%)- With the Falcons remaining schedule of @Buffalo, @Miami, Akron, and Toledo there is a chance for BG to heat up and take those games en-route to 7 wins and a bowl. The MAC has never had 6 schools make a bowl and it would be a big accomplishment to see that this year.
Toledo (10%)- Toledo needs 3 wins but with a game @CMU on the schedule plus EMU, and @BG its not going to be an easy task.
Buffalo (10%)- The Bulls need 4 wins and it won't be the easiest stretch with BG, Ohio, @Miami, @Kent State. If Turner Gill can get UB into a bowl game from here he's truely a great coach.
WMU (5%)- The Broncos have to win out but they've got one big problem, Michigan State is on the schedule. Granted, MSU has lost to a MAC school this season but don't count on that happening twice. The other 2 remaining games are @EMU, Ball State both doable.
The idea of six wins being bowl eligible is really not true in the MAC's case. You have to have seven. Toledo and WMU have seen their chances hurt significantly. Because of the favorable schedule, the UB-BG winner Tuesday is still very much alive. That KSU-UB game on the last day could be two 6-5 teams battling for that seventh win. I think the MAC gets four games for sure. A fifth game is still probably a long shot. I have not reassessed things in the other conferences after yesterday.
Trying to project which games the schools will play in is going to be difficult given that the GMAC is picking first and will probably take CMU.
I'm projecting the following bowls will be open for at-large:
Poinsettia (2 PAC-10 in the BCS)
Boise (TCU in the BCS)
New Mexico (MWC only 4 bowl eligibles)
Papa John's (SEC will not have 10 eligible)
Eagle Bank (Army won't win 6)
I expect that we'll see Boise State vs. BYU/Utah in the Poinsettia, Sun Belt in Papa John's. The MAC would then have opportunites to place in 3 at-large bowls if it can provide the 7 win teams. I'm going to predict that the MAC will have 5 teams make the 7 win threshold.
GMAC-Central Michigan
Detroit- Northern Ill.
International- Ohio
Eagle Bank- Temple
H-Bowl- Kent State
MAC Championship game (CMU vs. Temple). I think Temple will opt for the Eagle Bank bowl given proximity to that game. Ohio to the International over Kent State based on more wins. NIU to detroit based on some regional appeal. KSU will be shipped out West to face Idaho.
Kent to the International if they win the East.
(11-01-2009 05:49 PM)KStud Wrote: [ -> ]The idea of six wins being bowl eligible is really not true in the MAC's case. You have to have seven. Toledo and WMU have seen their chances hurt significantly. Because of the favorable schedule, the UB-BG winner Tuesday is still very much alive. That KSU-UB game on the last day could be two 6-5 teams battling for that seventh win. I think the MAC gets four games for sure. A fifth game is still probably a long shot. I have not reassessed things in the other conferences after yesterday.
I feel pretty good about Kent's chance to win 7. They are a better team than either Akron or Buffalo and they are capable of beating Temple.
Buffalo is in trouble. Given BG's performances against Kent, Ohio, CMU I think they'll be able to take the Bulls. Ohio has 10 days to prepare for the Bulls too.
I think Toledo/WMU are going to finish with 6-6 records and siting at home.
I do think the MAC will place all 7 win teams given the priority for 7 win teams over 6 wins and that other conferences aren't going to be able to supply extra 7+ teams with the exception of the Sun Belt which may 2-3 schools.
With the MAC having a past relationship with the Eagle Bank bowl and the geography for that game and a new relationship with the Boise bowl that is likely where the MAC is going.
(11-01-2009 06:04 PM)Airport KC Wrote: [ -> ]Trying to project which games the schools will play in is going to be difficult given that the GMAC is picking first and will probably take CMU.
I'm projecting the following bowls will be open for at-large:
Poinsettia (2 PAC-10 in the BCS)
Boise (TCU in the BCS)
New Mexico (MWC only 4 bowl eligibles)
Papa John's (SEC will not have 10 eligible)
Eagle Bank (Army won't win 6)
I expect that we'll see Boise State vs. BYU/Utah in the Poinsettia, Sun Belt in Papa John's. The MAC would then have opportunites to place in 3 at-large bowls if it can provide the 7 win teams. I'm going to predict that the MAC will have 5 teams make the 7 win threshold.
GMAC-Central Michigan
Detroit- Northern Ill.
International- Ohio
Eagle Bank- Temple
H-Bowl- Kent State
MAC Championship game (CMU vs. Temple). I think Temple will opt for the Eagle Bank bowl given proximity to that game. Ohio to the International over Kent State based on more wins. NIU to detroit based on some regional appeal. KSU will be shipped out West to face Idaho.
Kent to the International if they win the East.
Very nice assessment.
(11-01-2009 06:24 PM)JHG722 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-01-2009 06:04 PM)Airport KC Wrote: [ -> ]Trying to project which games the schools will play in is going to be difficult given that the GMAC is picking first and will probably take CMU.
I'm projecting the following bowls will be open for at-large:
Poinsettia (2 PAC-10 in the BCS)
Boise (TCU in the BCS)
New Mexico (MWC only 4 bowl eligibles)
Papa John's (SEC will not have 10 eligible)
Eagle Bank (Army won't win 6)
I expect that we'll see Boise State vs. BYU/Utah in the Poinsettia, Sun Belt in Papa John's. The MAC would then have opportunites to place in 3 at-large bowls if it can provide the 7 win teams. I'm going to predict that the MAC will have 5 teams make the 7 win threshold.
GMAC-Central Michigan
Detroit- Northern Ill.
International- Ohio
Eagle Bank- Temple
H-Bowl- Kent State
MAC Championship game (CMU vs. Temple). I think Temple will opt for the Eagle Bank bowl given proximity to that game. Ohio to the International over Kent State based on more wins. NIU to detroit based on some regional appeal. KSU will be shipped out West to face Idaho.
Kent to the International if they win the East.
Very nice assessment.
Thank You. Nice job yesterday against Navy.
(11-01-2009 06:29 PM)Airport KC Wrote: [ -> ] (11-01-2009 06:24 PM)JHG722 Wrote: [ -> ] (11-01-2009 06:04 PM)Airport KC Wrote: [ -> ]Trying to project which games the schools will play in is going to be difficult given that the GMAC is picking first and will probably take CMU.
I'm projecting the following bowls will be open for at-large:
Poinsettia (2 PAC-10 in the BCS)
Boise (TCU in the BCS)
New Mexico (MWC only 4 bowl eligibles)
Papa John's (SEC will not have 10 eligible)
Eagle Bank (Army won't win 6)
I expect that we'll see Boise State vs. BYU/Utah in the Poinsettia, Sun Belt in Papa John's. The MAC would then have opportunites to place in 3 at-large bowls if it can provide the 7 win teams. I'm going to predict that the MAC will have 5 teams make the 7 win threshold.
GMAC-Central Michigan
Detroit- Northern Ill.
International- Ohio
Eagle Bank- Temple
H-Bowl- Kent State
MAC Championship game (CMU vs. Temple). I think Temple will opt for the Eagle Bank bowl given proximity to that game. Ohio to the International over Kent State based on more wins. NIU to detroit based on some regional appeal. KSU will be shipped out West to face Idaho.
Kent to the International if they win the East.
Very nice assessment.
Thank You. Nice job yesterday against Navy.
If Temple wins the East, they won't "opt" for the EagleBank because a MAC-contracted bowl (Int'l or Pizza) will opt for them first. Or I could be horribly wrong.
If NIU ends up in the Pizza Bowl against Nortwestern or Michigan I'd be stoked.
Playing Michigan would be a road game, but I'd love every minute of being there.
(11-01-2009 09:34 PM)7 Wrote: [ -> ]If NIU ends up in the Pizza Bowl against Nortwestern or Michigan I'd be stoked.
Playing Michigan would be a road game, but I'd love every minute of being there.
Michigan will never play in the Pizza Bowl, the Big Ten will ship them down south or out west before ever letting them play in Detroit.
The MAC, Temple and its bowl partners could agree to "give" Temple to DC if it had another 7-win team to use in one of its tie-ins and presumably the MAC will have at least one more.
I was just doing an update for this week. The Eagle Bank Bowl should be a lock with Army likely to fall short. How about a fifth?
The Mountain West will get four for sure. A fifth bid could come from one of two places there if TCU gets in the BCS. Wyoming and SDSU are both 4-4 but play each other and also have one or two of the heavy hitters left. If they both lose 3 out of 4, New Mexico and Boise are open.
The PAC 10 will have five for sure. Stanford has five wins but has no guaranteed wins left. Washington and UCLA both are 3-5 and play this week, but the winner has a chance to get 6-6. Root for Pittsburgh to beat Notre Dame in two weeks. That could open a spot for USC in the BCS and a spot in San Diego for the MAC if two of the aforementioned three fall short of six wins.
The Big East will fill its spots if ND is in the BCS because of a 6-6 UConn. If ND loses, UConn is out of the way.
The Big 12 likely will have nine teams with seven wins and only one BCS team because of the parity behind Texas. That could actually be a good thing if the MAC can work a deal to get that extra Big 12 team to come to Detroit or Mobile. Or that team will steal one of those bowls out west.
The Big 10 looked good a few weeks ago to fill the Pizza Bowl, but with likely two BCS at-larges and Michigan State's loss to Minnesota, I see two of MSU, Indiana and NW finishing at 5-7.
The ACC appears headed for six teams. Duke has to win twice more because of a win against NC Central and they have a brutal finish. Root for Wake to beat FSU and then Duke to beat Wake on the final weekend. If UNC loses this week to Duke, they could be in trouble as they cannot go to a bowl at 6-6, but their schedule the rest of the sets up well. That will leave open the GMAC, DC and possibly Emerald in San Fran as we know. The CUSA only looks like it will have four teams with 7 wins. Does a secondary work like a tie-in or an at-large. In other words, does the GMAC have to take a 6-6 CUSA team over a 7-win Sun Belt, for example?
The Sun Belt should have three teams with 7 wins its 1 tie-in. In the WAC, thankfully, it looks like Fresno will fall short of seven wins so that would keep them out of the at-large pool.
The SEC could have leave Birmingham open if two of Arkansas, MSU and UK fall short of six wins to bring up the topic of secondaries again.
Thoughts? Any disagreements? I will try to do this each week the rest of the way. My biggest fear is Kent State goes 2-1 the rest of the way and is the only 7-5 team left at home like Akron in 2004.
7 win at-large teams are selected over schools that are 6-6 with backup agreements in place.
In other words, CUSA is the backup for the Eagle Bank but the MAC can override that with a 7+ win team provided CUSA doesn't have a 6th school with 7 wins (likely they won't).
If the ACC does not fill 8 spots there is also the possibility of the MAC and CUSA squaring off in this bowl (7 win MAC team vs. 6-6 CUSA).
Its still early yet to project the at-large openings.
NIU should win at least 7 games but i'd like to think they can win at least one of the two games @Ohio or @CMU to end up with eight or more wins.
epasnoopy,
It is my expectation that CMU, NIU and Temple will have the first three bowls. Because the EagleBank Bowl looks like a lock to be open for at least one spot, it seems safe to say the MAC will be able to maneuver to get a fourth team in a bowl. If Temple wins out and puts OU and Kent State each at 7-5, I expect OU to get the fourth bid because of their attendance, Solich, maybe even the band, who knows, etc.
I think Kent State is in 5th right now in the MAC pecking order. If WMU or Toledo pull an upset or BG wins out, that could push them down again.
I did some more poking about the secondaries, and I found the stories about the Sun Belt mess last year. I project the CUSA's fifth and sixth teams to finish 6-6. I don't want them in a bowl over a seven-win MAC team.
I'm hoping the MAC gives me the chance to do the MAC post season 'daily double'.
That would be the EagleBowl and the Pizza Bowl.
The Michigan State game is a toss-up at Purdue, and I don't see them upsetting Penn State. The Nittany Lions have been playing well lately. I could definitely see them 5-7.
(11-02-2009 02:55 AM)KStud Wrote: [ -> ]I was just doing an update for this week. The Eagle Bank Bowl should be a lock with Army likely to fall short. How about a fifth?
Why in the heck did the EagleBank Bowl sign CUSA as a backup instead of the MAC? The MAC was originally expected to be the backup conference. What changed?
Just seems rather dumb to take the sixth place 6-6 CUSA team over a 7-5 or 8-4 fourth place MAC team. Only two schools from CUSA could actually travel there, ECU or Marshall. The rest wouldn't bring jack.