I make no secret that I am a regular season man. The tournaments are just gravy to me - nice, but not essential.
I think we would be crazy to fire a coach that has won 46 games over two seasons. The odds of the person picked to succeed him doing better would be very slim. How many coaches in the history of the program have won 23 D-1 games in a season? I checked, but I don't know who was D1 back then, so I couldn't get the number. But not more than once or twice, I'm guessing.
That having been said, I do not expect Shields to stick around more than two more years if he does not have some notable success. I just think he will move on to something else. If he doesn't make a big splash here in the next two years, he will probably conclude that he never will and will look for another challenge. He is probably financially secure, and could get a somewhat higher-level post with another mid-major, or a high-level assistant job at a high profile BCS program.
The no-postseason situation created by the AD is the "handwriting on the wall". Steve sees it, we all see it and he has a decision to make. He has crappy odds of achieving postseason in 2010 and 2011 is a huge question mark and certain termination if it does not happen then, IMO. If the right offer comes along to get a fresh start at another decent D-1 program, mid-major or otherwise(assuming it is a place he would want to live and a boss he would want to work for) he would be a fool not to take it. He could take over for another successful coach and go to posteason his first year on the job and be on
. If he did we would all be proud of him and try to share some of the credit.
(04-03-2009 11:25 AM)Robert C Wrote: [ -> ]The no-postseason situation created by the AD is the "handwriting on the wall". Steve sees it, we all see it and he has a decision to make. He has crappy odds of achieving postseason in 2010 and 2011 is a huge question mark and certain termination if it does not happen then, IMO. If the right offer comes along to get a fresh start at another decent D-1 program, mid-major or otherwise(assuming it is a place he would want to live and a boss he would want to work for) he would be a fool not to take it. He could take over for another successful coach and go to posteason his first year on the job and be on . If he did we would all be proud of him and try to share some of the credit.
It seems like next season is the make it or break it season. We will have recruits from the current batch of assistants. I think the day of firing another group of assistants is gone, so the buck will stop at Shields this time.
If he gets and offer and goes this season, then maybe our recruits look elsewhere and "the best class in school history" dissolves, and then we REALLY have a rebuilding year.
I wonder if he would be interested in the Nevada opening.
(04-03-2009 11:43 AM)MICHAELSPAPPY Wrote: [ -> ]If he gets and offer and goes this season, then maybe our recruits look elsewhere and "the best class in school history" dissolves, and then we REALLY have a rebuilding year.
When a "built" year yields 23 wins and no postseason then what's the problem with a rebuilding year?
(04-03-2009 11:45 AM)MICHAELSPAPPY Wrote: [ -> ]I wonder if he would be interested in the Nevada opening.
They may contact him, but do you really see Steve Shields in Reno?
Now that I think about it, it's kind of nice up there around Lake Tahoe...
(04-03-2009 11:56 AM)Robert C Wrote: [ -> ] (04-03-2009 11:45 AM)MICHAELSPAPPY Wrote: [ -> ]I wonder if he would be interested in the Nevada opening.
They may contact him, but do you really see Steve Shields in Reno?
Now that I think about it, it's kind of nice up there around Lake Tahoe...
Lake Tahoe? or good ole Coleman Creek... hmmm. decisions, decisions...
(04-03-2009 11:57 AM)Robert C Wrote: [ -> ]Lake Tahoe? or good ole Coleman Creek... hmmm. decisions, decisions...
Didn't The Band do a song about Up on Coleman Creek..?
(04-03-2009 11:43 AM)MICHAELSPAPPY Wrote: [ -> ]If he gets and offer and goes this season, then maybe our recruits look elsewhere and "the best class in school history" dissolves, and then we REALLY have a rebuilding year.
Certainly our recruits would look elsewhere if Steve left- the signees are still bound to come here, but "forcing" kids to come usually doesn't work out.
I have no idea whatsoever what Steve's state of mind is right now. I also don't now if the assumption some have made "that the handwriting is on the wall" is correct. If it is- i.e. no NCAA or NIT next year and he's gone- I certainly would be looking around if I were him. I don't have a better explanation why Chris turned down the CBI or CIT- maybe it was totally based on finances. However, I have seen no animousity between Chris and Steve. Chris seems to really like Steve and can't really be upset with back to back seasons of 20 wins and then 23 wins. So basically I don't have a clue what's going on behind the scenes. Maybe Steve will be gone if he doesn't make the NCAA or NIT next year. Maybe too much emphasis was placed on one quote "We need to get to postseason" made on one occasion by our AD. What AD would not make that statement if interviewed about a program's goals?
(04-03-2009 12:08 PM)mjs Wrote: [ -> ]If it is- i.e. no NCAA or NIT next year and he's gone- I certainly would be looking around if I were him.
If that is correct, and if he gets a decent offer, I figure he is gone.