CSNbbs

Here is my first projection for the NCAA field this selection Sunday. I think it is important to note a few things. There are always a few procedural changes. Protected teams from the same conference cannot play each other until the final four…so for example I flipped three seeds Wake Forest and Villanova to avoid a Sweet 16 clash of Wake Forest and Duke as well as an Elite Eight clash of UCONN and Villanova. Also the committee likes to avoid teams from the same conference meeting in the first two rounds, so there were a few switches made based on that.

I only have 2 SEC teams in my field at this time. I think there is still a good chance another can make the finals to play themselves in(and I think they need to make the finals to do that). Teams that have already won automatic births are in BOLD. Teams that will need an automatic birth to make it have their conference in brackets after their name. I think Providence must beat Louisville to make the NCAA tournament. I think VT, Maryland, and Miami Florida must win two in the ACC tournament. I think Northwestern has to win 2, maybe three. I think Kansas State has to make the finals of the Big 12. My last four in are pretty weak so it will be easy for them to fall out, but others behind have to step up.

I will have one more projection on Selection Sunday, shortly before the brackets are released.

Indianapolis Region

1. Pittsburgh
16. Radford/Alabama State (SWAC)

8. Butler
9. Tennessee

4. Xavier
13. Northern Iowa

5. Missouri
12. Cleveland State

3. Villanova
14. Cornell

6. Arizona State
11. Siena

7. West Virginia
10. Penn State

2. Duke
15. Morehead State


Boston Region

1. UCONN
16. Steven F Austin (Southland)

8. Boston College
9. Ohio State

4. Washington
13. North Dakota State

5. Clemson
12. Utah State (WAC)

3. Wake Forest
14. American (Patriot)

6. Marquette
11. Minnesota

7. Utah
10. Michigan

2. Memphis
15. Cal State Northridge (Big West)



Memphis Region

1. North Carolina
16. Chattanooga

8. Texas A&M
9. Arizona

4. Purdue
13. Western Kentucky

5. Syracuse
12. VCU

3. Kansas
14. Portland State (Big Sky)

6. California
11. San Diego State

7. Gonzaga
10. Oklahoma State

2. Michigan State
15. Bowling Green (MAC)


Arizona Region

1. Oklahoma
16. Morgan State (MEAC)

8. Dayton
9. BYU

4. Florida State
13. Binghampton (American East)

5. UCLA
12. New Mexico

3. Illinois
14. East Tennessee State

6. LSU
11. Creighton

7. Texas
10. Wisconsin

2. Louisville
16. Robert Morris (Northeast)
Last Four In

San Diego State
Minnesota
Creighton
New Mexico

First Four Out

Providence
UNLV
Kansas State
Miami (Florida)

Next Four Out

Virginia Tech
St. Mary’s
Northwestern
Maryland

Still in the Mix

Maryland
Rhode Island
South Carolina
Florida
Auburn
Utah State
Temple

Nowhere to be found
Cincinnati

http://www.bearcatmark.blogspot.com

amazing amount of work - thanks for sharing.

Great Job, but If Xavier loses in their conference tourney, I think the selection committee gives them a 6.

There are certainly still plenty of ifs. I imagine we'll see some differences come sunday.

How could XU be a 4??? Maybe a 5 at lowest they are ranked 19 and that is a gift I think a 6 is more in line. 4 very bad losses down the stretch this is not a top 25 team right now.

Look at RPI and quality wins. Your ranking in the polls means nothing when seeding is done. I originally had them as the top 5 just behind Missouri as the bottom 4. Well XU beat Missouri head to head and since they were that close they flipped I bet if Xavier wins the A10 tournament they will be a 4.... if they lose in the finals they will be a 5... if they lose another game they may slip to a 6...but no further

To be honest i do not think Xavier is as good as their seed is going to indicate. I think they caught teams like Missouri and Memphis at the right time and it has inflated their RPI. Their win over LSU also really helps since LSU is likely a 6 seed and XU won convincingly on their floor.

They also have wins over Auburn, VT, Rhode Island, Temple and Dayton...

why is illinois a three?

Honestly. I probably have Illinois too high looking at it. Their win over Missouri is really good...they finished second in the number 1 RPI conference. A week ago before losses to Michigan State and Penn State i think a three would be right... They may be closer to a lower 4 high 5 at this point. I will say I think their is a pretty substancial drop from the 11th best team on the S curve (I have Villanova, but Wake and Kansas are not that far ahead) and the 12th best team whoever it is.

In the end I think I decided their 8 RPI top 50 wins...was more than the other teams around them. But i threw my hands up trying to figure out that area of the bracket.

Good work Mark!

And, by the way...I still hate Illinois and Bruce Weber.