Obviously I am counting chickens before they hatch- ETSU has to win the A-Sun Tourney first.
But I was on Real Time RPI earlier today and here's what I saw.
On Real Time, ETSU is No. 144- higher than Jacksonville but not Belmont.
I assure you the SWAC champ will make the play-in game. Their conference leader- Alabama State- is only ranked No. 213 and the rest of the teams in that conference have records much worse than Alabama State.
However, best as I could find, the only other conference champ with a worse Real-Time RPI is Morgan State out of the MEAC with a 149.
And let's face it, 149 is not that far removed from 144 and Real Time RPI ain't the end-all, be-all for the tournament selection committee.
Now, yes, Army could rise up and knock of American in the Patriot League or Robert Morris could fall in the Northeast or something like that could happen.
And it should also be mentioned ETSU's rating would figure to increase a little if ETSU were to win the A-Sun Tourney with victories against Belmont and/or Jacksonville (though a weak out-of-conference slate could come back and haunt them, I suppose, if another team's out-of-conference opponents did well in their conference tourneys).
But right now, it could easily be said that ETSU only has the slightest of leads to NOT get the play-in game- 23 potential victories on the season or not.
This has already been settled. Myself and at least two others have said so, and with adequate reasoning. If ETSU, Belmont, or Jax wins, they will NOT be in the play-in game. I would bet quite a bit of money on it. Lipscomb - possible.
It hasn't been settled. Bleacher Report has Jacksonville making the play-in.
The Bucs' strength of schedule is not in their favor. While the SWAC Champ going to the play-in is a given, here's the question I ask of you- with all objectivity.
Would you rate ETSU higher, whose most impressive out-of-conference victory is against Chattanooga (13-16)?
Or Morgan State, whose most impressive out-of-conference victory is against Maryland?
Throw out the non-Division I victories and both the Golden Bears and Bucs have 18 victories.
Furthermore, they have one common opponent. Morgan State beat Marshall by 5 points, ETSU by 4.
Conference records? Morgan State has a .800 winning percentage in their conference, ETSU a .700.
You clearly either-
A- Hate me so much you wish to refute anything I say.
B- Are too much of a homer to believe this could POSSIBLY happen to our ETSU Bucs! No way!
C- Simply don't know as much as I do.
Probably a bit of all three, wouldn't you say?
D - Apparently know history better than you do.
The answer is "D".
Do you honestly think anyone on the board believes you know more about, well, anything than I do?
Now the second time Pitt has tried to start this argument, and yet again, it's not valid. No way ETSU, Belmont or Jax end up in the play-in.
Not going to happen.
Tell that to Bleacher Report.
Or the multiple bracketologists who have picked the A-Sun winner 16th.
History, you say? Two years ago the two teams in the play-in had 21 victories.
If ETSU wins the tournament, they have 21 victories against Division I teams.
I am not saying it will happen for sure. But the only valid counterpoint I've heard that the Bucs won't play in Dayton should they win is because the odds say somewhere in the Northeast or Patriot or Southland or MEAC the field will beat the favorite.
And that's probably the Bucs' best hope of avoiding this stigma.
Don't care what happens or who wins. Won't happen. Just won't. You need to give this up. This "experts" don't even look at the mid-majors for the most part. They just throw conference champs names on the board.
You know that.
If that's the case, where are the bracketologists picking Davidson to go to the play-in game and Jacksonville to get, say, a 13 seed?
YOU throw conference champs names on the board. That's why you think the A-Sun and So Con are equal for crying out loud!
By the way, when you start using my phrases- "You know that"- in your arguements the board knows who the master is.
So thanks!
And "just won't" isn't a good arguement.
Another debating tip from your ol' pal Pitt.
I hate to take on an unarmed opponent!
I'm done discussing it. It's like talking to a rock.
Rocks analyze the out of conference victories of ETSU and Morgan State?
Actually, they don't.
But apologists sure do love to avoid the issues!
Rocks are easier to deal with. They're more truthful. They don't always insist on the last word. They don't always cry about wanting to be back in Pittsburgh and yet live here. I've never heard a rock disparage a man who just died. Most rocks can hold their job for longer than a few months. Most rocks know better than to be fans of The Dukes of Hazard. Yeah, rocks rock!
And rocks aren't obsessed with the southern conference. Geez pitt if you love them so much post on their bbs and elucidate them with your much sought after prose.
Uh, poster- if you're going to make fun of my favorite TV show on an ETSU board, I suggest two things-
A- Spell the name of the show correctly.
B- Make sure it's one-time lead never played football at ETSU.
Kay babe?
Makes you disloyal and a traitor.
Additionally, three things in that above post were absolute lies.
But we both know that and so does the rest of the board.
Your criticisms don't stick. You fall for every trap I set for you and the only time you make sense is when you agree with me.
But please- continue. The entire board knows your game and LOVES it when I put you in your place because while my arrogance is largely an act, yours is . . .
Well . . . .
His favorite tv show was Dukes of Hazard? Geez...we're dealing with a freaking genius here. I guess Andy Griffith was too high brow for him. He's still traumatized by the episode where the goat at the dynamite.