Right now Akron looks to be the frontrunner. Ball State looking ok for the 2 seed, 3 and 4 seeds are between UB and BGSU right now. Kent State is charging fast and could slide into a bye. Miami is fading fast and could slide behind Ohio if Bobcats have a strong finish. Ohio is trying to hold 7th in hopes of drawing the 2 seed. WMU could overtake Ohio for the 7th as they hold a tie breaker. CMU sitting 9th but matches up well with both WMU and Ohio so they could pull an upset in Cleveland.
Did you eat paint chips when you were a kid?
(02-27-2009 04:18 PM)OUBOBCATJOHN Wrote: [ -> ]Right now Akron looks to be the frontrunner. Ball State looking ok for the 2 seed, 3 and 4 seeds are between UB and BGSU right now. Kent State is charging fast and could slide into a bye. Miami is fading fast and could slide behind Ohio if Bobcats have a strong finish. Ohio is trying to hold 7th in hopes of drawing the 2 seed. WMU could overtake Ohio for the 7th as they hold a tie breaker. CMU sitting 9th but matches up well with both WMU and Ohio so they could pull an upset in Cleveland.
Of all teams, Ohio, assuming they end up the 7 seed, would be the one that shouldn't be looking ahead to a date with the No. 2 seed. There's a first-round game they'd have to win first. And after their trip through the West already this year, I'd say they might want to take that one seriously.
What Ohio would have to do to get a bye:
Ohio 10-6
Wins @ Akron, v. Buffalo, @ BGSU
What other teams are probably going to do given Home/Road sched.
Buffalo 10-6
Loss @ Ohio, @KSU
Wins v. Miami
Akron 10-6
Loss v. Ohio, @ KSU
Wins v. BGSU
Bowling Green 9-7
Loss @Akron, v.Ohio, @Miami
Kent State 10-6
Loss @ Miami
Wins v.Buffalo, v. Akron
Miami 10-6
Loss @Buffalo
Wins v. Kent State, v. Miami
Ohio in this case would have the tie-breaker over Miami & Akron, and would finish in front of BGSU in the standings. That would give the Bobcats a bye.
More realistically, lets say the Bobcats lose at Anderson Arena.
Ohio 9-7
Loss v.BGSU
Wins @ Akron, v. Buffalo
Buffalo 9-7
Loss @ Ohio, @KSU, v. Miami
Akron 9-7
Loss v. Ohio, @ KSU, v. Bowling Green
Bowling Green 12-4
Wins v. Ohio, @Miami, @Akron
Kent State 11-5
Wins v.Buffalo, v. Akron, @Miami
Miami 9-7
Loss v. Kent State, v. Bowling Green
Wins @Buffalo
This scenario has BGSU #1, KSU #3....the Bobcats would have the bye over Miami/Akron and would win the tie-breaker over Buffalo because of the sweep over Akron
Head to Head Ohio
BGSU 0-2
BSU 0-1
KSU 1-1
UA 2-0
MIA 2-0
Head to Head Buffalo
BGSU 0-2
BSU 0-1
KSU 1-1
UA 1-1
MIA 0-2
I guess its a remote possibility for Ohio to pick up a bye at 9-7. I don't know if its going to matter that much because as a #7 seed we would draw #10 Toledo (RPI 321). Even if Ohio slips to an #8 or #9 we would draw either WMU (RPI 283) or CMU (RPI 287) in the first round.
We are a long shot in Cleveland. I'm most concerned with trying to finish the season above .500. If Ohio can at least go 1-2 down the stretch and win its first round game then we finish 16-16. We go 2-1 down the stretch we likely finish 17-15.
Our best shot in the tourney may be as a #7 seed. That way we play Toledo #10 in the first round and BSU #2 in the quarters. We want to avoid Kent or Akron in the quarterfinals.
(02-28-2009 09:06 AM)MikeSpicer Wrote: [ -> ] (02-27-2009 04:18 PM)OUBOBCATJOHN Wrote: [ -> ]Right now Akron looks to be the frontrunner. Ball State looking ok for the 2 seed, 3 and 4 seeds are between UB and BGSU right now. Kent State is charging fast and could slide into a bye. Miami is fading fast and could slide behind Ohio if Bobcats have a strong finish. Ohio is trying to hold 7th in hopes of drawing the 2 seed. WMU could overtake Ohio for the 7th as they hold a tie breaker. CMU sitting 9th but matches up well with both WMU and Ohio so they could pull an upset in Cleveland.
Of all teams, Ohio, assuming they end up the 7 seed, would be the one that shouldn't be looking ahead to a date with the No. 2 seed. There's a first-round game they'd have to win first. And after their trip through the West already this year, I'd say they might want to take that one seriously.
That is true but don't forget Ohio has a little bit of a home court edge up in Cleveland over most teams. Bobcats SHOULD be able to win its first round game as a favorite. History says they will.