The Obama camp has tried to make a big deal of Sarah Palin as a potential President. The implications are that McCain is on his last legs and the elevation of Palin to the Presidency is almost a sure thing, presumably sometime in the first few weeks.
I went to some actualral tables to find the life expectancy of a 72-year-old, and in the first three i found, the numbers were 12.01, 10.80, and 10.80. I think 11 years for the average (median?) years left to 72-year-olds is reasonable.
The next question is, Is McCain more or less likely than most to make the average/median of 11 more years, more than enough to cover the term he is running for and even a possible second term. Sure some 72-year-olds are running marathons and climbing mountains, but some others are pulling oxygen tanks, in hospices, and/or pushing walkers. McCain probbably fits more or less in the big middle, but my impression after watching him campaign and debate is that he would be in the upper half, rather than the lower extremes that the Obama camp warns of. I think he is highly likely to still be alive and fully functional 4 years from now. Of course Obama's chances of the same are a little higher, but still not 100%.
Even if the long odds hit, and McCain dies in office, it is more likely to happen later than sooner, so Palin would have years to develop more knowledge and experience than she has now, and what she has now compares favorably to Obama's, IMO.
So I think, (a) Palin is very unlikely to become president before 2012 or 2016, and (b) if she does she still will be a better choice than Obama and/or Biden.
OptimisticOwl Wrote:The Obama camp has tried to make a big deal of Sarah Palin as a potential President. The implications are that McCain is on his last legs and the elevation of Palin to the Presidency is almost a sure thing, presumably sometime in the first few weeks.
I went to some actualral tables to find the life expectancy of a 72-year-old, and in the first three i found, the numbers were 12.01, 10.80, and 10.80. I think 11 years for the average (median?) years left to 72-year-olds is reasonable.
The next question is, Is McCain more or less likely than most to make the average/median of 11 more years, more than enough to cover the term he is running for and even a possible second term. Sure some 72-year-olds are running marathons and climbing mountains, but some others are pulling oxygen tanks, in hospices, and/or pushing walkers. McCain probbably fits more or less in the big middle, but my impression after watching him campaign and debate is that he would be in the upper half, rather than the lower extremes that the Obama camp warns of. I think he is highly likely to still be alive and fully functional 4 years from now. Of course Obama's chances of the same are a little higher, but still not 100%.
Even if the long odds hit, and McCain dies in office, it is more likely to happen later than sooner, so Palin would have years to develop more knowledge and experience than she has now, and what she has now compares favorably to Obama's, IMO.
So I think, (a) Palin is very unlikely to become president before 2012 or 2016, and (b) if she does she still will be a better choice than Obama and/or Biden.
I tend to agree with you about Palin. At this point it's McCain that scares me. I have a prediction about tonight's debate: Sarah Palin will not say anything dumber than, "the fundementals of our economy are sound."
The actuarial numbers I've seen on McCain on the question of "Will he die before January 20, 2013" have ranged from 25% to 33% likelihood.
texd Wrote:The actuarial numbers I've seen on McCain on the question of "Will he die before January 20, 2013" have ranged from 25% to 33% likelihood.
Given the way actuarial tables work, 25% may not be inconsistent with an 11-year life expectancy, although 33% seems a bit high to me. I've seen a likelihood of about 5% per year, which would work out to roughly 20%, so somewhere in that range makes sense.
It's not a bell curve distribution. For example, there are some 72 year old men who will exceed the 11-year life expectancy by 15 years and live to be 98. There are no 72 year old men who will fall 15 years short and die at 68. Therefore, the table is to some extent front-loaded.
Whatever the actual details, the odds are very strongly against McCain croaking in the first year, and still strong but slightly less so against it in the second year. By that time, Palin would have way more relevant experience than Obama will have on day 1.
texd Wrote:The actuarial numbers I've seen on McCain on the question of "Will he die before January 20, 2013" have ranged from 25% to 33% likelihood.
Could you post a link? These are the kind of numbers i was looking for - the odds of a 72 year old living for 1, 2, 3, and 4 years.
For that matter, what are the numbers on Obama? Biden? Both, jointly? (I shudder at the prospect of President Pelosi - that is one person who could make me vote for Obama). At least we have one young 'un on each side as a buffer from Pelosi.
Thanks, Tex. The numbers were actually closer than I thought they would be, especially for the first couple of years, and by then, as 69/70/75 points out, she will undisputably have more expience and more salient experience than Obama will bring to the first day, even for those who think he is better qualified than her at the moment.
I see they factored in Obama's family history of cancer, but didn't his father die young also? I would think a family history of early death on both sides of ones family should be considered, unless such deaths were accidental. McCain's mother is still alive and well at 96.
How old was FDR when he was elcted to his 4th term? Obviously he was in bad health. I don't know if his health was an issue in that campaign, or if Truman's readiness was considered.
I think your 12.01 year figure for a male comes from the Social Security Administration (I found
this one for their 2004 estimates). The
state of New York has this table, which has a 72 year old male with 11.53 years life expectancy.
There is actually nothing Bell Curve like to the to the expected number of people to die in a given year, by age. The chance of dying should increase every year you get older after age 10, as the SSA charts show. The one variation is that while this is true for females, there is a blip from age 24 to 26 where death rates for males drop. The death rate for age 23 males doesn't get surpassed until age 33. Those crazy, dangerous young guys!
Back to where we were looking - at the old guys. If I'm interpreting the Number of Lifes data correctly, there is a 31.74% statistical chance of McCain dying within 8 years, and a 14.36% statistical chance of McCain dying during his 1st term. That's using the SSA data.
To be fair, doing the same for Obama says that a 47 year old male will live another 31.03 years (on average). He has a 2.00% statistical chance of dying within 1 term, and a 4.64% statistical chance of dying by the end of a possible 2nd term.
Now, if we want to get more specific, there is also the
race specific data (from the CDC), which I post just for sheer curiosity. (Probably treading on interesting ground here - I'm not making any commentary on the causes of these numbers, they're just measurements across a wide racial category.) A 47 year old black male will live another 30.3 years, while a 72 year old white male will live another 12.5 years. A 47 year old black male has a 3.49% statistical chance of dying within 4 years and a 8.27% statistical chance of dying within 8 years. A 72 year old while male has a 13.83% statistical chance of dying within 4 years and a 30.51% statistical chance of dying within 8 years. That's all 2004 data.
I hope that makes everything clear now. And I don't know about you, but it jumps out at me that the death rates for black males around Obama's age are so much higher than the average male population, even though the average life expectancy doesn't change much. I don't want to take that sociological/medical diversion on some of these implications, but it really jumps out at me.
OptimisticOwl Wrote:How old was FDR when he was elcted to his 4th term? Obviously he was in bad health. I don't know if his health was an issue in that campaign, or if Truman's readiness was considered.
FDR was 62 in 1944. The bad health was just rumors at the time, though it did force a confrontation at the convention to replace the current vice president. Henry Wallace lost on the 2nd ballot to Harry Truman. Some interesting stuff to read the
Wikipedia recount of the 1944 election.
OptimisticOwl Wrote:So I think, (a) Palin is very unlikely to become president before 2012 or 2016, and (b) if she does she still will be a better choice than Obama and/or Biden.
I agree that Palin is very unlikely to become president before 2012 or 2016 -- but for a different reason than you, I suspect.
erice Wrote:OptimisticOwl Wrote:So I think, (a) Palin is very unlikely to become president before 2012 or 2016, and (b) if she does she still will be a better choice than Obama and/or Biden.
I agree that Palin is very unlikely to become president before 2012 or 2016 -- but for a different reason than you, I suspect.
Wrong again, friend. I was specifically speaking to the possibilities of her ascension to the Presidency through the death of McCain after his election. If they do not win it is of course a moot question.
Of course, if you were just trying to be funny, ha ha.
OptimisticOwl Wrote:I see they factored in Obama's family history of cancer, but didn't his father die young also? I would think a family history of early death on both sides of ones family should be considered, unless such deaths were accidental. McCain's mother is still alive and well at 96.
IIRC his father was an alcoholic. If that factors into Barack Obama's life expectancy, then we've got bigger problems than figuring out the succession order. Maybe the Ruskies could help?
And what impact might the stress of The Office of the President have on these figures?
(Goes back to lurking...)
OptimisticOwl Wrote:erice Wrote:OptimisticOwl Wrote:So I think, (a) Palin is very unlikely to become president before 2012 or 2016, and (b) if she does she still will be a better choice than Obama and/or Biden.
I agree that Palin is very unlikely to become president before 2012 or 2016 -- but for a different reason than you, I suspect.
Wrong again, friend. I was specifically speaking to the possibilities of her ascension to the Presidency through the death of McCain after his election. If they do not win it is of course a moot question.
Of course, if you were just trying to be funny, ha ha.
Apparently I should have put the smiley in there after all. I knew what you were talking about. Just thought I'd take something out of context. It's election season, after all.
Bob Dole is still alive and kicking at 85. I think McCain should be fine for four years. I doubt seriously he could handle the stress of the White House for eight years. He just seems too wound up to be a walking time bomb for eight years. I actually would question Biden's health as much as McCain. Biden had the aneurysm and may be showing early brain loss (he slips up at times with silly gaffes).
MOBweb Wrote:And what impact might the stress of The Office of the President have on these figures?
(Goes back to lurking...)
Which, McCain's life expectancy or the likelihood that Obama becomes an alcoholic?
erice Wrote:OptimisticOwl Wrote:erice Wrote:OptimisticOwl Wrote:So I think, (a) Palin is very unlikely to become president before 2012 or 2016, and (b) if she does she still will be a better choice than Obama and/or Biden.
I agree that Palin is very unlikely to become president before 2012 or 2016 -- but for a different reason than you, I suspect.
Wrong again, friend. I was specifically speaking to the possibilities of her ascension to the Presidency through the death of McCain after his election. If they do not win it is of course a moot question.
Of course, if you were just trying to be funny, ha ha.
Apparently I should have put the smiley in there after all. I knew what you were talking about. Just thought I'd take something out of context. It's election season, after all.
I am short one smiley myself. Sorry.
I45owl Wrote:MOBweb Wrote:And what impact might the stress of The Office of the President have on these figures?
(Goes back to lurking...)
Which, McCain's life expectancy or the likelihood that Obama becomes an alcoholic?
I believe Obama's major vice is the evil weed - tobacco.
OptimisticOwl Wrote:so Palin would have years to develop more knowledge and experience than she has now, and what she has now compares favorably to Obama's, IMO.
I have yet to see any evidence to support what you say. A careful look at the things she said in the debate shows that her knowledge and experience are narrow and shallow. Listening to Obama talk (not just "speak"), it's hard to say the same.
It's probably useless for us to debate this point, but I couldn't read this without responding.
S.A. Owl Wrote:OptimisticOwl Wrote:so Palin would have years to develop more knowledge and experience than she has now, and what she has now compares favorably to Obama's, IMO.
I have yet to see any evidence to support what you say. A careful look at the things she said in the debate shows that her knowledge and experience are narrow and shallow. Listening to Obama talk (not just "speak"), it's hard to say the same.
It's probably useless for us to debate this point, but I couldn't read this without responding.
Well, I at least said "IMO". I guess we now have YO. They are both just O's.