CSNbbs

What's the story here with the Blue Jays GM making some comments about Adam Dunn that he's supposedly apologizing for making?

The full story is on 1530homer.com.

Be careful when you visit that site. You will end up with a boatload of tracking cookies. On a single page load, I counted 17 tracking cookies that tried to place themselves on my computer.

Reader comment from the Toronto Globe and Mail:

Quote:Fred Draper from Kingston, Canada writes: Why doesn't JP be a man about things and apologize in person? He knows Dunn's name, number and residence for the next three days.

I know JP would prefer we left this t__d on the side of the road and moved on. Sorry.

But if he's afeared for his safety in apologizing in person, he shouldn't be.

As one wag put, if Dunn took a swing at JP with a bat in his hands, based on his BA, he'd likely miss.

If Dunn chased him around the field, JP would likely get away. Dunn doens't catch much running.

Posted 25/06/08 at 10:28 AM EDT | Alert an Editor | Link to Comment

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story...ent2188326

And I thought Cincy people were the only ones that disliked old Dunny Boy.

Not a Dunn fan, despite the fact that his numbers, relatively speaking are good. I just don't think he is a good baseball player and the best teams don't carry bad baseball players. Dave Kingman hit lots of homeruns and the Cubs sucked. Gorman Thomas was a killer and the brewers were rotten.

Stats only tell you so much, the Toronto GM was 100% correct.

And yet he was wayyyyyyy out of line. Given his position that is adn unacceptable comment and one that makes him look like an complete incompetent.

Dave Kingman is the worst possible comparison to Adam Dunn... Dunner does far more than hit homeruns. True Dunn is FIFTH in MLB HISTORY in homeruns per ab so we concentrate on his homeruns, but he also walks, gets on base, drives in runs and scores runs.

I ripped this straight from Lance's blog but it says a lot..

Dunn's lifetime on base percentage is .381....Kingman's was .302

Dunn will walk over 100 times for the sixth time in seven full seasons this year.

Kingman's career high for walks was 62 and he had just four seasons of 50+ walks.

Kingman walked 608 times in 16 seasons. Dunn has walked 736 times in his 8th season.

Dunn's lowest OBP for a season is .354, Kingman's highest was .343

Kingman had six seasons with an OBP under .300

Dunn does K's more times per season....an average of 181 over 162 games, compared to Kingman's 152.

Dunn's career slugging percentage is .517 to Kingman's .478.

Field percentage in LF: Dunn .969, Kingman .957


Here is the thing... I am a Cubs fan and get to witness the very streaky Soriano... When Soriano is hot he is great, but when he is not he HURTS the team. When Dunn is not hitting homeruns or in a cold streak he is still doing things to help the team win. He is still making pitchers throw a lot of pitches, he is still drawing walks and getting on base (thus giving his team a chance to score)... As far as basic stats OBP is still the best for predicting runs a team will score. His numbers are not just good... there are few in baseball that compare production wise

Eastside_J Wrote:Not a Dunn fan, despite the fact that his numbers, relatively speaking are good. I just don't think he is a good baseball player and the best teams don't carry bad baseball players. Dave Kingman hit lots of homeruns and the Cubs sucked. Gorman Thomas was a killer and the brewers were rotten.

Stats only tell you so much, the Toronto GM was 100% correct.

And yet he was wayyyyyyy out of line. Given his position that is adn unacceptable comment and one that makes him look like an complete incompetent.

That Toronto GM is a stats guy. Was Billy Beane's sidekick in Oakland.

Dave Kingman and Gorman Thomas are career .300 and .320 OBP and .780 and .770 OPS guys, respectively. Dunn is a career .380 OBP and .900 OPS hitter. They really aren't similar hitters to Dunn.

bearcatmark Wrote:Dave Kingman is the worst possible comparison to Adam Dunn... Dunner does far more than hit homeruns. True Dunn is FIFTH in MLB HISTORY in homeruns per ab so we concentrate on his homeruns, but he also walks, gets on base, drives in runs and scores runs.

I ripped this straight from Lance's blog but it says a lot..

Dunn's lifetime on base percentage is .381....Kingman's was .302

Dunn will walk over 100 times for the sixth time in seven full seasons this year.

Kingman's career high for walks was 62 and he had just four seasons of 50+ walks.

Kingman walked 608 times in 16 seasons. Dunn has walked 736 times in his 8th season.

Dunn's lowest OBP for a season is .354, Kingman's highest was .343

Kingman had six seasons with an OBP under .300

Dunn does K's more times per season....an average of 181 over 162 games, compared to Kingman's 152.

Dunn's career slugging percentage is .517 to Kingman's .478.

Field percentage in LF: Dunn .969, Kingman .957


Here is the thing... I am a Cubs fan and get to witness the very streaky Soriano... When Soriano is hot he is great, but when he is not he HURTS the team. When Dunn is not hitting homeruns or in a cold streak he is still doing things to help the team win. He is still making pitchers throw a lot of pitches, he is still drawing walks and getting on base (thus giving his team a chance to score)... As far as basic stats OBP is still the best for predicting runs a team will score. His numbers are not just good... there are few in baseball that compare production wise

BMark,
I didn't look up the stats for Kingman or Thomas. I would rate Dunn as a better player for sure.

I am not a big fan of Dunn's for a lot of reasons. But there are some things he does very well and certainly OBP, mainly due to his ability to draw a walk is exceptional.

But why not walk him? Despite walking 81 times he is 44th in the NL in RUNS. A large part of that is because the guys behind him aren't doing their part to bring him in, but it is also due to the fact that he is a pretty ideal guy to put on first base with two outs.

I completely agree that he takes criticism way out of proportion to his level of production.

My problem with low batting average guys like Dunn is two fold, I think their OBP stats get bloated by pitchers and managers putting them on base in low risk situations.

When the game is truly on the line against a high quality pitcher I just cringe every time he comes to the plate. When pitchers go straight after Dunn they know damn well that he is absolutely not going to sac fly a run in.

Here is the hallmark of a bloated stat hitter: What is their success rate / BA in situations where they are behind in the count? In my opinion this tells you how they do in crucial situations against better pitchers. Why? Because better pitchers routinely get batters behind in the count. If Dunn whiffs on the first pitch or gets a called strike, here are his stats:

After 0-1 count:
Batting average: .196
OBP: .284

0-2 count
Batting average .123
OBP .132

After 0-2 count
Batting average: .123
OBP: .190

1-2 Count
Batting average .115
OBP .129


2-2 Count
Batting average: .151
OBP .159

That is freakin dismal. Keep it out of his HR zone and manage to get a strike on the first pitch and Dunn is an easy out. Manage to go 0-2 on Dunn and you own the guy.

Think about this for a moment:

Manage a strike on the first pitch and he strikes out nearly half the time! He has 1764 career at bats where he went 0-1 in the count. In those 1764 at bats he struck out 764 times.

What happens if you get him 0-2? Dunn has gone 0-2 693 times in his career. Of those 693 at bats he struck out 430 times.

Find the stats of someone that is regarded as a truly high quality "baseball player" (which Dunn is NOT). There is no way they become that easy an out in a tough situation.

In my opinion that is 100% indefensibly lousy. But yeah he is fantastic at drawing a walk especially whent the walk is unlikely to matter and he hits shoddy, undisciplined pitching with no outs and the game not on the line like an absolute lion. Great.

Most of Dunn's homeruns have come when the game is within 2 runs (172 of his 256 to be exact)... I wouldn't say Dunn doesn't hit when the game is on the line. This year specifically 16 of his 18 homeruns have come when the game is within 2 runs. As well as 32 of his 44 RBI.

He is also one of the active leaders in walkoff homeruns. He has 2 eigth inning homeruns and 3 ninth inning homeruns. I'm not going to argue that he strikes out a lot because he does... but he produces as well. I think he is ideal for the 2 or 3...because with guys around him he could be a force.

Eastside_J Wrote:

bearcatmark Wrote:Dave Kingman is the worst possible comparison to Adam Dunn... Dunner does far more than hit homeruns. True Dunn is FIFTH in MLB HISTORY in homeruns per ab so we concentrate on his homeruns, but he also walks, gets on base, drives in runs and scores runs.

I ripped this straight from Lance's blog but it says a lot..

Dunn's lifetime on base percentage is .381....Kingman's was .302

Dunn will walk over 100 times for the sixth time in seven full seasons this year.

Kingman's career high for walks was 62 and he had just four seasons of 50+ walks.

Kingman walked 608 times in 16 seasons. Dunn has walked 736 times in his 8th season.

Dunn's lowest OBP for a season is .354, Kingman's highest was .343

Kingman had six seasons with an OBP under .300

Dunn does K's more times per season....an average of 181 over 162 games, compared to Kingman's 152.

Dunn's career slugging percentage is .517 to Kingman's .478.

Field percentage in LF: Dunn .969, Kingman .957


Here is the thing... I am a Cubs fan and get to witness the very streaky Soriano... When Soriano is hot he is great, but when he is not he HURTS the team. When Dunn is not hitting homeruns or in a cold streak he is still doing things to help the team win. He is still making pitchers throw a lot of pitches, he is still drawing walks and getting on base (thus giving his team a chance to score)... As far as basic stats OBP is still the best for predicting runs a team will score. His numbers are not just good... there are few in baseball that compare production wise

BMark,
I didn't look up the stats for Kingman or Thomas. I would rate Dunn as a better player for sure.

I am not a big fan of Dunn's for a lot of reasons. But there are some things he does very well and certainly OBP, mainly due to his ability to draw a walk is exceptional.

But why not walk him? Despite walking 81 times he is 44th in the NL in RUNS. A large part of that is because the guys behind him aren't doing their part to bring him in, but it is also due to the fact that he is a pretty ideal guy to put on first base with two outs.

I completely agree that he takes criticism way out of proportion to his level of production.

My problem with low batting average guys like Dunn is two fold, I think their OBP stats get bloated by pitchers and managers putting them on base in low risk situations.

When the game is truly on the line against a high quality pitcher I just cringe every time he comes to the plate. When pitchers go straight after Dunn they know damn well that he is absolutely not going to sac fly a run in.

Here is the hallmark of a bloated stat hitter: What is their success rate / BA in situations where they are behind in the count? In my opinion this tells you how they do in crucial situations against better pitchers. Why? Because better pitchers routinely get batters behind in the count. If Dunn whiffs on the first pitch or gets a called strike, here are his stats:

After 0-1 count:
Batting average: .196
OBP: .284

0-2 count
Batting average .123
OBP .132

After 0-2 count
Batting average: .123
OBP: .190

1-2 Count
Batting average .115
OBP .129


2-2 Count
Batting average: .151
OBP .159

That is freakin dismal. Keep it out of his HR zone and manage to get a strike on the first pitch and Dunn is an easy out. Manage to go 0-2 on Dunn and you own the guy.

Think about this for a moment:

Manage a strike on the first pitch and he strikes out nearly half the time! He has 1764 career at bats where he went 0-1 in the count. In those 1764 at bats he struck out 764 times.

What happens if you get him 0-2? Dunn has gone 0-2 693 times in his career. Of those 693 at bats he struck out 430 times.

Find the stats of someone that is regarded as a truly high quality "baseball player" (which Dunn is NOT). There is no way they become that easy an out in a tough situation.

In my opinion that is 100% indefensibly lousy. But yeah he is fantastic at drawing a walk especially whent the walk is unlikely to matter and he hits shoddy, undisciplined pitching with no outs and the game not on the line like an absolute lion. Great.

Ugh.

While Dunn is not a good hitter for average, virtually everyone bats .200 or worse with 2 strikes. It's because the statistic is completely flawed. If you swing and miss in a 0-1 count, it doesn't affect your batting average in 0-1 counts, because there's no play there. If you do so in an 0-2 count, it'll bring your average down for BA in 0-2 counts because you just made an out. It's a worthless statistic.

levydl Wrote:

Eastside_J Wrote:

bearcatmark Wrote:Dave Kingman is the worst possible comparison to Adam Dunn... Dunner does far more than hit homeruns. True Dunn is FIFTH in MLB HISTORY in homeruns per ab so we concentrate on his homeruns, but he also walks, gets on base, drives in runs and scores runs.

I ripped this straight from Lance's blog but it says a lot..

Dunn's lifetime on base percentage is .381....Kingman's was .302

Dunn will walk over 100 times for the sixth time in seven full seasons this year.

Kingman's career high for walks was 62 and he had just four seasons of 50+ walks.

Kingman walked 608 times in 16 seasons. Dunn has walked 736 times in his 8th season.

Dunn's lowest OBP for a season is .354, Kingman's highest was .343

Kingman had six seasons with an OBP under .300

Dunn does K's more times per season....an average of 181 over 162 games, compared to Kingman's 152.

Dunn's career slugging percentage is .517 to Kingman's .478.

Field percentage in LF: Dunn .969, Kingman .957


Here is the thing... I am a Cubs fan and get to witness the very streaky Soriano... When Soriano is hot he is great, but when he is not he HURTS the team. When Dunn is not hitting homeruns or in a cold streak he is still doing things to help the team win. He is still making pitchers throw a lot of pitches, he is still drawing walks and getting on base (thus giving his team a chance to score)... As far as basic stats OBP is still the best for predicting runs a team will score. His numbers are not just good... there are few in baseball that compare production wise

BMark,
I didn't look up the stats for Kingman or Thomas. I would rate Dunn as a better player for sure.

I am not a big fan of Dunn's for a lot of reasons. But there are some things he does very well and certainly OBP, mainly due to his ability to draw a walk is exceptional.

But why not walk him? Despite walking 81 times he is 44th in the NL in RUNS. A large part of that is because the guys behind him aren't doing their part to bring him in, but it is also due to the fact that he is a pretty ideal guy to put on first base with two outs.

I completely agree that he takes criticism way out of proportion to his level of production.

My problem with low batting average guys like Dunn is two fold, I think their OBP stats get bloated by pitchers and managers putting them on base in low risk situations.

When the game is truly on the line against a high quality pitcher I just cringe every time he comes to the plate. When pitchers go straight after Dunn they know damn well that he is absolutely not going to sac fly a run in.

Here is the hallmark of a bloated stat hitter: What is their success rate / BA in situations where they are behind in the count? In my opinion this tells you how they do in crucial situations against better pitchers. Why? Because better pitchers routinely get batters behind in the count. If Dunn whiffs on the first pitch or gets a called strike, here are his stats:

After 0-1 count:
Batting average: .196
OBP: .284

0-2 count
Batting average .123
OBP .132

After 0-2 count
Batting average: .123
OBP: .190

1-2 Count
Batting average .115
OBP .129


2-2 Count
Batting average: .151
OBP .159

That is freakin dismal. Keep it out of his HR zone and manage to get a strike on the first pitch and Dunn is an easy out. Manage to go 0-2 on Dunn and you own the guy.

Think about this for a moment:

Manage a strike on the first pitch and he strikes out nearly half the time! He has 1764 career at bats where he went 0-1 in the count. In those 1764 at bats he struck out 764 times.

What happens if you get him 0-2? Dunn has gone 0-2 693 times in his career. Of those 693 at bats he struck out 430 times.

Find the stats of someone that is regarded as a truly high quality "baseball player" (which Dunn is NOT). There is no way they become that easy an out in a tough situation.

In my opinion that is 100% indefensibly lousy. But yeah he is fantastic at drawing a walk especially whent the walk is unlikely to matter and he hits shoddy, undisciplined pitching with no outs and the game not on the line like an absolute lion. Great.

Ugh.

While Dunn is not a good hitter for average, virtually everyone bats .200 or worse with 2 strikes. It's because the statistic is completely flawed. If you swing and miss in a 0-1 count, it doesn't affect your batting average in 0-1 counts, because there's no play there. If you do so in an 0-2 count, it'll bring your average down for BA in 0-2 counts because you just made an out. It's a worthless statistic.

The statistic that is most relavant is AFTER an 0-1 count and AFTER an 0-2 count. Both measure his BA after he gets in that situation rather than just in the next pitch.

Dunn is sub .200 every time a pitcher manages to get him 0-1. And not only does he fail to get a hit, he strikes out 43% of the time in that situation.

In at bats when the pitcher gets him 0-2, he isn't just under .200 he is .132 and he strikes out 62% of the time.

To me those are critical stats because they are most likely to occur against better pitchers. And they are most likely to occur in important situations.

Seriously look at other players you consider quality "baseball players", not one dimensional HR and BB divas like Dunn and try to find someone who is so likely to whiff in a tough spot.

Name a high quality baseball player who is unable (or unwilling) to adjust his strategy at the plate to try and get a sacrifice fly? Dunn is averaging just over 2 a year and I think I have only witnessed 3 that I can say clearly didn't come by accident. Giambi? Sosa? Kingman? Edmonds? I am sure they averaged 2x or 3x the SAC flies per year.

You guys all make good points rebutting Eastside's position (don't forget Babe Ruth hit a lot of homers and the Yankees won ).

One thing I'll add to Eastside, is if you are going to use those type of stats you need to show a baseline (e.g. major league average) for them to even begin to have meaning. Also, when talking about a power guy like Dunn you do him a disservice by not showing slugging there as well (of course with league average for comparison).

I doubt comparing that info will help your case but who knows until we see it. Without it, it comes off as meaningless.

Also, note that your runs stat on Dunn looks only at this 1/2 season. Dunn has averaged over 100 runs scored over the last 4 years which ranks him much higher. The primary reasons he can control for that are he gets on base and plays everyday.

OK, one last point - would Dunn be a better player if he got "meaningless" singles in those situations rather than those meaningless walks you discuss?

What do you want me to say, that Dunn isn't as good as Jason Giambi or Sammy Sosa (both steroid users, mind you)? That means he's bad? So Dunn would be an infinitely better player in your eyes if he got 6-7 sac flies a year rather than 2 or 3?

The guy has big flaws, but hitting 4-6 less sac flies than a "great player" doesn't seem to be at the top of the list (I also recall a few years ago, after Dunn went the whole season without hitting a sac fly, that someone did an analysis on whether players change their approach to try to hit sac flies, and that Dunn actually hit a HR in several of the sac fly situations. So he actually did better than what people were asking of him, but was criticized for it.). Yes, I wish he'd strike out less, but striking out is not nearly as harmful as you think, while moving runners over isn't nearly as helpful as you think.

I don't think trying to change his approach at the plate would help him. He's here because of that selective approach. He's not Giambi or Sosa or Bonds, but that's not the same thing as being terrible. He's good, but imperfect.

levydl Wrote:What do you want me to say, that Dunn isn't as good as Jason Giambi or Sammy Sosa (both steroid users, mind you)? That means he's bad? So Dunn would be an infinitely better player in your eyes if he got 6-7 sac flies a year rather than 2 or 3?

The guy has big flaws, but hitting 4-6 less sac flies than a "great player" doesn't seem to be at the top of the list (I also recall a few years ago, after Dunn went the whole season without hitting a sac fly, that someone did an analysis on whether players change their approach to try to hit sac flies, and that Dunn actually hit a HR in several of the sac fly situations. So he actually did better than what people were asking of him, but was criticized for it.). Yes, I wish he'd strike out less, but striking out is not nearly as harmful as you think, while moving runners over isn't nearly as helpful as you think.

I don't think trying to change his approach at the plate would help him. He's here because of that selective approach. He's not Giambi or Sosa or Bonds, but that's not the same thing as being terrible. He's good, but imperfect.

Here is some stuff that actually sort of bares out that changing his approach won't help.
I ripped this off a reds message board a few days ago.

Quote:Here's some data from Bill James:

In '07, Dunn took 57% of the pitches he saw. Of those 1478 he took, 28% were for a strike and 72% were called a ball. I have no idea how this compares to the league average. However, here is Bonds' '07- he took 64% and of those, 26% were taken for a strike. Arod (the most valuable bat in the world relative to his position during '07 according to VORP) looked identical to Dunn in this regard (took 57% and of those 28% were taken for strikes). By contrast, Nick Punto (metaphorical offensive flatulence) took 58% of all pitches he saw and of those 36% were in the strike zone.

Here's a difference though. When looking at the pitches each player swung at, here is the percentage each put into play: Dunn: 32%, AROD: 42%, Bonds: 46%; and Punto: 44%.

What does any of this mean? Well-keeping in mind it's superficial and anecdotal-it would suggest that Dunn's Achilles heel isn't the ones he takes, it's the ones he misses.

And there we go-Dunn strikes out too much (but maybe not because he takes too many strikes)!

I guess I see the wisdom in letting a contact-deficient hitter with plus OBP skills to, well, not be forced to swing more.


Quote:

Courtesy of Bill James:

Dunn has seen 319 pitches so far in '08. He has swung at 34% of them. Of those he has swung at, 82% have been in the strike zone. Of the pitches he has taken, only 24% have been strikes. He has only put 35% of the pitches he has swung at into play. Importantly, only 42% of the pitches thrown to him were in the strike zone.

In 2007, he swung at 43% of the pitches he saw, of those he swung at, 74% were in the strike zone. Of the pitches he took, 28% were strikes. He only put 32% of the pitches he swung at into play. Importantly, 48% of the pitches thrown to him were actually in the strike zone.


His '08 is small sample size theater so NO reliable conclusion can be drawn. All that can be said is that for this tiny sample, he has swung less than the previous year as a percentage but this is likely because he's seen fewer pitches in the strike zone this season though so far he has also swung at fewer balls out of the strike zone.




Here's an update for the data relevant to the point that while Dunn doesn't swing at bad pitches, he doesn't swing at enough good pitches either:

He's seen 1289 pitches so far in '08 and he's taken 26% of them for a strike (208)-he's not taking more pitches this season (a generally slumpy one) than he usually does nor is he taking more than a guy like Bonds or Arod does.



It's been suggested that Dunn takes too many called third strikes and this is a glaring problem that even the eyes can easily detect. Supporting this assertion, Dusty has felt the need to speak out on the subject by suggesting his best hitters need to be more aggressive. My initial perception was that such a notion wasn't accurate though others soundly disagree. Thinking about this issue last night, I found it impossible to address it in a way that might resolve these contradictory perceptions because both sides seem to be missing some kind of context. It drives me nuts to watch a run producer from my team take a third strike with RISP. That said, really, while Dunn strikes out a ton including being caught looking many times, does he really watch strike three a great deal more than other similar hitters? I've argued he doesn't in the past. That said, this certainly seems to be an issue where I need to challenge my perception with raw data if possible.

A few weeks ago, some data was posted that suggested he K's a lot because he's contact deficient rather than overly patient:



While suggestive, that really didn't directly address whether he looks at too many third strikes though. In order to do this, I've focused on 2007 strikeout data compiled at baseballreference.com (specifically the number of times hitters watch a called third strike versus the number of swinging third strikes). I've focused on all qualified hitters who saw 4 or more pitches per plate appearance (48 players). While 4 P/PA is a somewhat arbitrary cutoff, Dunn averaged 4.2 Pitches/PA in '07 and it seemed unfair to compare him to guys who see significantly fewer pitches and are therefore less likely to be caught looking (or strikeout in general). For such players, I've listed their total number of strikeouts (SO), their strikeouts caught looking (SOL) and their swinging strikeouts (SOS). Finally since strikeout rates vary tremendously across this list, the percentage of all strikeouts coming from "being caught looking" was calculated as a means of comparison. The totals for the whole group are at the bottom of the list. Below are the data:

Code:

Last PA Outs Pitch/PA SO SOL SOS SOL%

Willits 518 335 4.5 83 29 54 34.9

Cust 507 308 4.4 164 72 92 43.9

Abreu 699 460 4.4 115 30 85 26.1

Helton 682 402 4.4 74 32 42 43.2

Millar 562 366 4.3 94 33 61 35.1

Damon 605 400 4.3 79 30 49 38.0

Youkilis 625 392 4.3 105 28 77 26.7

Swisher 659 423 4.3 131 33 98 25.2

Inge 577 409 4.2 150 31 119 20.7

Burrell 598 369 4.2 120 48 72 40.0

Roberts 716 462 4.2 99 37 62 37.4

Thome 536 327 4.2 134 41 93 30.6

Howard 648 407 4.2 199 40 159 20.1

Weeks 506 323 4.2 116 27 89 23.3

Dunn 632 402 4.2 165 46 119 27.9

Blake 662 458 4.2 123 34 89 27.6

Sizemore 748 469 4.2 155 46 109 29.7

Bautista 614 426 4.1 101 31 70 30.7

Varitek 518 339 4.1 122 29 93 23.8

Johnson 608 394 4.1 83 29 54 34.9

Mora 527 374 4.1 83 15 68 18.1

Ortiz 667 387 4.1 103 20 83 19.4

Upton 548 359 4.1 154 47 107 30.5

Hafner 661 421 4.1 115 35 80 30.4

Thomas 624 403 4.1 94 23 71 24.5

Sheffield 593 384 4.1 71 16 55 22.5

Pujols 679 421 4.1 58 11 47 19.0

Cameron 651 452 4 160 57 103 35.6

Matsui 634 412 4 73 23 50 31.5

Lopez 671 486 4 109 31 78 28.4

Lee 650 410 4 114 34 80 29.8

Figgins 503 325 4 81 20 61 24.7

Pena 612 368 4 142 37 105 26.1

Griffey Jr. 623 406 4 99 22 77 22.2

Zimmerman 722 511 4 125 44 81 35.2

Dye 561 401 4 107 28 79 26.2

Granderson 676 438 4 141 22 119 15.6

Wright 711 434 4 115 38 77 33.0

Punto 536 395 4 89 33 56 37.1

Hall 503 359 4 127 28 99 22.0

Hawpe 606 387 4 137 33 104 24.1

Iwamura 559 370 4 114 27 87 23.7

Jones 659 472 4 138 26 112 18.8

Kinsler 566 384 4 83 16 67 19.3

Willingham 604 396 4 122 39 83 32.0

DeRosa 574 381 4 93 26 67 28.0

Martin 620 413 4 89 21 68 23.6

LaRoche 632 433 4 131 46 85 35.1

cohort totals: 1544 3935 28.2

Let me be the first to say, yes, Dunn strikeouts a lot. He also strikes out looking a lot (about the same number of times as guys like Sizemore/Upton/Zimmerman). However, the above table indicates that though Dunn gets caught looking 27.9% of the time he strikes out, he's normal in that regard. While that seems like a lot, the average for hitters who see similar numbers of pitches was actually 28.2%. Dunn's SOL% basically was exactly average. In other words, since he gets caught looking about the number of times you'd expect from a player who sees as many pitches as he does given his strikeout total, his caught looking strikeouts aren't really a problem.

Once again, he's a contact-deficient hitter with above average on base skills. These data do nothing to make me quit questioning the wisdom of suggesting Dunn needs to swing more.

I think people would be able settle a lot easier on Dunn if he could:

A. Hit about .250 instead of .220
B. Appear not to be loafing on defense

I've seen Dunn make good plays on the ball in the air when he thinks he can get there. But I've seen him give up bases when he thinks he doesn't have a play. I just wish he would play all out on defense because it seems he could be playing harder.

He's a great power hitter and he gets on base. I think a good point is he is often purposefully not pitched to- and probably is given more walks than he works for. He strikes out way too much to have that great of an eye (that he is always credited for).

Dunn is not going to change. He shows no signs of doing so. Castellini apparently idolizes the guy, so we may be stuck with him. I personally wish the guy would just hit to the opposite field a little bit, drop a bunt once in awhile, and hustle to the ball on a consistent basis.

Bearcatbdub Wrote:I think people would be able settle a lot easier on Dunn if he could:

A. Hit about .250 instead of .220

He hit:
.266 in 2004
.247 in 2005
.264 in 2007

Yet he still had the same criticisms.

Actually over the last 5 seasons (including the current season as one) his average is .2494. I think you need to revise your theory.

Bearhawkeye Wrote:

Bearcatbdub Wrote:I think people would be able settle a lot easier on Dunn if he could:

A. Hit about .250 instead of .220

He hit:
.266 in 2004
.247 in 2005
.264 in 2007

Yet he still had the same criticisms.

Actually over the last 5 seasons (including the current season as one) his average is .2494. I think you need to revise your theory.

How about hit .275 instead of .250? LOL. I was just thinking about what he's doing so far this year instead of his past averages- I didn't have any stats in front of me.

I think what I said bottom line still holds true: Play harder on D, and do a little more at the plate (shorten up with 2 strikes, go opposite field occassionally, lay down a bunt). NO I don't think he will do these things, but people would like him better if he did- and it's stuff he should be capable of.

levydl Wrote:What do you want me to say, that Dunn isn't as good as Jason Giambi or Sammy Sosa (both steroid users, mind you)? That means he's bad? So Dunn would be an infinitely better player in your eyes if he got 6-7 sac flies a year rather than 2 or 3?

The guy has big flaws, but hitting 4-6 less sac flies than a "great player" doesn't seem to be at the top of the list (I also recall a few years ago, after Dunn went the whole season without hitting a sac fly, that someone did an analysis on whether players change their approach to try to hit sac flies, and that Dunn actually hit a HR in several of the sac fly situations. So he actually did better than what people were asking of him, but was criticized for it.). Yes, I wish he'd strike out less, but striking out is not nearly as harmful as you think, while moving runners over isn't nearly as helpful as you think.

I don't think trying to change his approach at the plate would help him. He's here because of that selective approach. He's not Giambi or Sosa or Bonds, but that's not the same thing as being terrible. He's good, but imperfect.

No, no not trying to compare him to steroid guys, I should have used other examples. The point was made regarding SAC flies so I didn't think steroids would be seen as particularly relevant. You can insert anyone, Andruw Jones, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Youkilis, etc, etc. I honestly don't even know what the SAC Fly stats for these guys
even look like. But I am confident that they would be far greater than just over 2 a year for the simple reason that it would be difficult to not hit more than that by accident. Better hitters should be capable of doing several times that number.

While I agree that there are times in a SAC fly potential situation where he hits a homerun, which is certainly a better thing for that at-bat. The problem is that a hitter should be able "make contact" and put the ball in play to a much higher percentage than they would swinging for the fences.

In my opinion, the question is: Is he (A) incapable of "making contact" at a decent percentage? Or is he (B) unwilling to sacrifice a home run attempt regardless of the situation.

I think its mostly (B) and that makes me wonder how much he really wants to win.

I have lots of frustration with Dunn, to a certain extent with Griffey and 100% with Baker.

Here is an example. How many times has Griffey faced the over-exaggerated infield shift this year? I have seen at least 8 at bats in person where the team has had their third baseman playing in the shortstop hole. Bunting down the 3rd base line is as close to an automatic hit as you are ever going to get in baseball. To my knowledge Griffey hasn't laid down a bunt all year. It makes no sense.

Yeah I know it is folly to have home run hitters routinely bunting. But teams would stop shifting him if they thought it was conceivable that he might bunt. Instead Griffey swings from the heels and lines out to the 5 guys situated perfectly on the right side of the field waiting for him.

He isn't "too dangerous" a hitter anymore where bunting is out of the question. And if he is too brittle to run out a bunt, I think that is the clear signal that the guy needs to to RETIRE!

Bearcatbdub Wrote:

Bearhawkeye Wrote:

Bearcatbdub Wrote:I think people would be able settle a lot easier on Dunn if he could:

A. Hit about .250 instead of .220

He hit:
.266 in 2004
.247 in 2005
.264 in 2007

Yet he still had the same criticisms.

Actually over the last 5 seasons (including the current season as one) his average is .2494. I think you need to revise your theory.

How about hit .275 instead of .250? LOL. I was just thinking about what he's doing so far this year instead of his past averages- I didn't have any stats in front of me.

I think what I said bottom line still holds true: Play harder on D, and do a little more at the plate (shorten up with 2 strikes, go opposite field occassionally, lay down a bunt). NO I don't think he will do these things, but people would like him better if he did- and it's stuff he should be capable of.

Actually his defense isn't as bad as most think.

He currently has the 4th best Range Factor in LF.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fiel...angeFactor

I always thought it showed a serious lack of baseball knowledge when fans said his defense was terrible. Just look at the rest of the outfielders on that list. Your worst OF is always put in LF. Carl Crawford is the exception in TB though because of his weak arm.

I'll never understand the people that say Dunn is not productive.

However, I can understand the fans that think he's a luxury and not worth $15+ million per season.

I just wonder what Joe Fan will do with his time once Dunn and Griffey are gone. They are, of course, the reason for every Reds loss.

Bearcat04 Wrote:

Bearcatbdub Wrote:

Bearhawkeye Wrote:

Bearcatbdub Wrote:I think people would be able settle a lot easier on Dunn if he could:

A. Hit about .250 instead of .220

He hit:
.266 in 2004
.247 in 2005
.264 in 2007

Yet he still had the same criticisms.

Actually over the last 5 seasons (including the current season as one) his average is .2494. I think you need to revise your theory.

How about hit .275 instead of .250? LOL. I was just thinking about what he's doing so far this year instead of his past averages- I didn't have any stats in front of me.

I think what I said bottom line still holds true: Play harder on D, and do a little more at the plate (shorten up with 2 strikes, go opposite field occassionally, lay down a bunt). NO I don't think he will do these things, but people would like him better if he did- and it's stuff he should be capable of.

Actually his defense isn't as bad as most think.

He currently has the 4th best Range Factor in LF.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fiel...angeFactor

I always thought it showed a serious lack of baseball knowledge when fans said his defense was terrible. Just look at the rest of the outfielders on that list. Your worst OF is always put in LF. Carl Crawford is the exception in TB though because of his weak arm.

I'll never understand the people that say Dunn is not productive.

However, I can understand the fans that think he's a luxury and not worth $15+ million per season.

I just wonder what Joe Fan will do with his time once Dunn and Griffey are gone. They are, of course, the reason for every Reds loss.

That is hilarious. He is a hideous fielder. He makes the wrong initial move and takes the wrong line so often that he doesn't even get to the spot to make a play on balls that other fielders routinely get a glove on.

I think Dunn is very productive, but I think there is also a high price to be paid both in dollars and in the form of negative productivity (strikeouts, poor fielding, the inability to move runners, SAC flies etc). I also think the things that the Toronto GM said are true, Dunn isn't particularly competitive. Griffey isn't hugely competitive either.

Are Dunn and Griffey to blame for all the reds losses? Of course not. They are just key pieces in a clubhouse that is fantastic baseball culture but is completely removed from the, "we are here to win", business-like culture that you see from top teams.

Look at the Cardinals. How many fat players do you see on the Cardinals? How many guys do you see jogging leisurely in the outfield with their shirt half tucked in? Have you ever seen a guy on St. Louis trot out a probable-out ground ball? The last time the reds were any good they, like the Cardinals, didn't have guys who approached the game like Adam Dunn.

His raw stats certainly make an argument for productivity with major caveats. But his fielding play, mentality and approach are simply not what you want other guys emulating. Other GM's, not just Toronto's obviously know this pretty well because the reds have shopped the crap out of him and no one is interested.

Regarding missing Dunn and Griffey? Why? Griffey came in 2000 and Dunn in 2001. The reds haven't played .500 ball in a single year since 2000. Most years they have 15-30 games out. The newer guys like Bruce don't seem to have a problem hustling for balls and extra bases. Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto don't seem to think they have earned the right to jog out ground balls.

Couple more players like that and who knows, we might have a team again that looks, acts and tries to win like the professional athletes who have been kicking the crap out of us for the last 10 years.