CSNbbs

It's still the summer, so I thought I'd start a discussion about the changing landscape of college football and its possible implications for conferences as we head into the next decade.

We have fun on this board razzing with ACC and C-USA fans about the status of our three leagues. But the reality is, we are all small potatoes in the world of college football.

We hope for the failure of the Big Ten Network, because we can't even imagine what it will be like if it is successful.

Without doubt, the biggest impact on college football in the next decade will be a successful BTN.

Think about this. IF, and it's still a big IF, the Big Ten does get the BTN on in their 8 states for $1.10 a month that is going to be huge.

There are 5.7 million TV households in the state of Ohio. The national average of TV households having cable is 84%. Eighty-four percent of 5.7 million is 4.78 million and if they have to pay the Big 10 $13.20 a year, that totals about $63 million.

Now granted, the Big Ten doesn't see all of that money, but that is just ONE of the eight states, FOX as an equity partner and the cable companies themselves (at least the bigger ones like Comcast and Time Warner) will also see some of that. But let's say that is about half, getting 32 million just from the state of Ohio isn't chicken feed.

And the Big Ten has two other states, Illinois and Pennsylvania that have more than the number of TV households than does the state of Ohio. And another state, Michigan that has almost as many.

Between those four states alone, even getting half of that revenue, totals over 120 million. This isn't counting the ABC/ESPN deal for the national coverage.

How is the OTHER Super-Conference, the SEC likely to respond? It has 9 states instead of 8, but the overall TVHH don't compare. To get equity with the Big Ten, do they charge more? Or do they try to expand, let's say to Texas?

The state of Texas has approximately 7.2 TV households. Eighty four percent of that is approximately 6 million cable subscribers. That's almost $80 million in TV revenue that an SEC Network with Texas might generate. Half of that is $40 million. Think the SEC might think adding Texas and Texas A&M does nothing for them?

If the figures the Big Ten are throwing around are correct (or within .60 percent of being accurate) AND, if the BTN is successful, this could have a huge impact on conferences in the coming decade.

The other impact I see coming down the road is the Plus-One model. Obviously, this will have much less impact than a successful BTN, but could have implications for the ACC, Pac-10, and Big East.

Is there any doubt that 3 of the top four rated teams in most years will be from the Big Ten, Big 12 (assuming the above doesn't come true) and the SEC? Three of the four will likely come from Big Ten and SEC if Texas and A&M go to the SEC in the above scenario.

Let's face it. The game, if it isn't already rigged in the Big Ten's and SEC's favor, soon will be.

How do 'the lesser' conferences respond to these changes?

Are the Big East football schools even aware of these possibilities? Or are Big East fans likely to hear in 2012, "We was blind-sided"?

Cheers,
Neil

I don't think the SEC will have to expand to match the Big 10, as far as having their own network ratings match. The population of the U.S. is shifting southward, and all southern states are growing like crazy. Here in Knoxville, TN, the population has doubled in the last 25 years to make Knoxville the 3rd largest city in Tennessee. It used to be Chattanooga, but not any longer. Nashville, for a while, took over being the largest in the state, and may again in the very near future. Every time I go over there I see another huge construction project in the works, and all the roads are being upgraded to handle increased traffic. Unfortunately, like most governments, the roads being built are already obsolete, since nobody ever does long range future planning.

The midwest, being a big cog in the industrial growth of the nation, has been developed far longer than the south, with its history of agricultural domination. That's no longer the case as industries, and the people to work in them, move south to warmer climates. I'm not concerned for the SEC.

The BEast is be the conference with the most growth potential. If the northeast gets interested, the rest of the nation better take notice. That's a network that could be huge in 15-20 years.

bitcruncher Wrote:I don't think the SEC will have to expand to match the Big 10, as far as having their own network ratings match. The population of the U.S. is shifting southward, and all southern states are growing like crazy. Here in Knoxville, TN, the population has doubled in the last 25 years to make Knoxville the 3rd largest city in Tennessee. It used to be Chattanooga, but not any longer. Nashville, for a while, took over being the largest in the state, and may again in the very near future. Every time I go over there I see another huge construction project in the works, and all the roads are being upgraded to handle increased traffic. Unfortunately, like most governments, the roads being built are already obsolete, since nobody ever does long range future planning.

Certainly the southern states have seen a population growth, but Florida remains the only southern state with a population greater than 10 million, although Georgia is closing in on that mark.

And perhaps, over time, the 9 SEC states might approach the 8 Big Ten states, but will the SEC want to wait that long? Especially if the money being earned through a successful BTN allows that conference to begin to distance itself from the SEC athletically?

Quote:The BEast is be the conference with the most growth potential. If the northeast gets interested, the rest of the nation better take notice. That's a network that could be huge in 15-20 years.

The problem with the BEast is that while it has that potential, it doesn't have 'the pull' of either the Big Ten or the SEC. Which is why Tranghese scoffed at the notion that the Big East might pursue its own TV network. In reality, ESPNU would become the Big East Network, if a Big East even exists by that time - but you can bet that ESPN isn't sharing anything with the league.

Cheers,
Neil

If the SEC raids B12 for Texas and Texas AM. Thats a death blow to that league. The BE could move in and add Missouri,Oklahoma,Nebraska and Oklahoma St and break into divisions
West
Missouri
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Oklahoma St
Louisville
Cinncinati

East
West Virginia
Pitt
Syracuse
Rutgers
UConn
South Florida.

Cubanbull Wrote:If the SEC raids B12 for Texas and Texas AM. Thats a death blow to that league. The BE could move in and add Missouri,Oklahoma,Nebraska and Oklahoma St and break into divisions
West
Missouri
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Oklahoma St
Louisville
Cinncinati

East
West Virginia
Pitt
Syracuse
Rutgers
UConn
South Florida.

While I certainly don't want to limit discussion, I was kind of hoping this thread wouldn't be so much about conference realignment scenarios (although I did open that up myself with the SEC), but rather how, or more aptly what, should the Big East footballs be planning so as not to be blind-sided in the next decade.

Cheers,
Neil

Well, that shot the hell out of that plan.

But the SEC doesn't have to wait to get big money. As long as they are perceived as the strongest conference, ABC, CBS, NBC, and FOX will line up to give them money.

Quote: Let's face it. The game, if it isn't already rigged in the Big Ten's and SEC's favor, soon will be.

How do 'the lesser' conferences respond to these changes?

Are the Big East football schools even aware of these possibilities? Or are Big East fans likely to hear in 2012, "We was blind-sided"?

No doubt that B10 and SEC revenue streams outstrip all other conference today and the gap between 1 and 2 and the rest looks to only widen in the future. It's just a matter of degrees at this point. It still remains to be seen if the B10's negotiations with the big cable providers bear fruit. If the BTN finds its way onto basic cable, there have been estimates of $100 million in conference revenues from the network yearly. If on a premium sports tier, just a fraction of that amount. Talk of an equity ownership in the BTN for Comcast is worrisome, though.

So what can be done to prepare for the future? Does a split somehow help? I would think at one level, there may be more pressure from ESPN for the BE to remain a hybrid: more games, more content to fill the gaps left by the B10 and SEC. I'm sure they'd let the BE schools know that they'd be less likely to pay a similar amount to two diminished and competing leagues of 8 teams each. Perhaps the latest tv contract is in part the BE's first response to this changing landscape?

And what might the response of the other "lesser" leagues be? Does the ACC also go to 14 if the SEC grabs Texas and A&M? I know you don't want this thread to devolve into conference realignment speculation but the response of conferences thus far to financial crisis and competition has been expansion. I'm not sure what else, if anything, they have up their sleeves. And if the last expansion was unsuccessful in killing off the BE, this one should do it. Or do select presidents of the BE and ACC come together and form a new conference that might actually be able to compete with the SEC and B10 in terms of finances?

What else? NCAA/Gov't. competitive reform? Maybe cut down the number of football scholarships and create a more even playing field? Increased oversight on AD expenditures? The best bet probably is resignation to/acceptance of the financial superiority of the B10 and SEC. How much more of an advantage can these two leagues gain over what they already have? Whatever perks that money can buy, the top tier in both conferences already have. Some pay head coach salaries that approach NFL figures. So now perhaps all the teams in their conference will be able to do the same as the ones on top used to just do. In a sense, the extra money helps to even the playing field within the conference itself. Does that help them or hurt them? Maybe it makes it more difficult for teams to get through the conference schedule unscathed? In the same way that a conference championship game can be great revenue source but can also muddle the conference's post-season aspirations, all this new money achieves a level of parity that may be potentially harmful to the league.

Neil,

Why don’t you just come out and tell us how we should respond. Even if we are on the same page, we have a hard time speaking with one voice. Forget about put out fire around the country, we can’t even do it our own backyard.

supp Wrote:

Quote: Let's face it. The game, if it isn't already rigged in the Big Ten's and SEC's favor, soon will be.

How do 'the lesser' conferences respond to these changes?

Are the Big East football schools even aware of these possibilities? Or are Big East fans likely to hear in 2012, "We was blind-sided"?

No doubt that B10 and SEC revenue streams outstrip all other conference today and the gap between 1 and 2 and the rest looks to only widen in the future. It's just a matter of degrees at this point. It still remains to be seen if the B10's negotiations with the big cable providers bear fruit. If the BTN finds its way onto basic cable, there have been estimates of $100 million in conference revenues from the network yearly. If on a premium sports tier, just a fraction of that amount. Talk of an equity ownership in the BTN for Comcast is worrisome, though.

Yep, and if Comcast gets it, I bet Time Warner gets a piece of the pie as well.

And I think the estimate of $100 million is just a little low.

If I understand the set-up correctly, they get about half of every $13.20 raised for each cable subscriber. The other half goes to FOX. Now, let's assume Comcast and Time Warner get in on a piece of the action for 5% each, that would bring the Big Ten's share down somewhat to about $5 for every subscriber. And that is probably a conservative estimate.

Rough estimates then would be:

Pennsylvania - 5 million subscribers at $5 = $25 million
Illinois - just under 5 million subscribers at $5 = $24 million
Ohio - 4.5 million subscribers at $5 = $23 million
Michigan - 4.5 million subscribers at $5 = $23 million
Indiana - 2.75 million subscribers at $5 = $14 million
Wisconsin - 2.4 million subscribers at $5 = $12 million
Minnesota - 2 million subscribers at $5 = $10 million
Iowa - 1.5 million subscribers at $5 = $7.5 million

Or about $120 million, not counting the ABC/ESPN monies, which even though advertised as $100 million a year, is really $50 million a year. The other $50 million, I understand, is 'play money'. ABC/ESPN bought the rights to all Big Ten sports so they could have priority in choosing the games they want via an agreed upon way with the Big Ten. This cost them $100 million, but since they aren't going to show every single game, the Big Ten then turns around and 'pays' ABC/ESPN 50 million so they can show the games not on ABC/ESPN (the ones that would have gone to ESPN Plus) on the BTN.

So, about 170 million divided by 11 is 15.5 million per school for TV monies alone. This does not include BCS/Bowl revenues and Big Ten bb tournament monies and NCAA credits. Nor does it include the monies collected from those outside the states, whether it be via a sports tier or $0.10 per subcriber.

Quote:So what can be done to prepare for the future? Does a split somehow help? I would think at one level, there may be more pressure from ESPN for the BE to remain a hybrid: more games, more content to fill the gaps left by the B10 and SEC.

In the planning stages, the Big East football schools can't worry about what ESPN wants. It's to ESPN's advantage to sell the Mikey T line that the northeast is entirely different from the Midwest - "NYC isn't Bloomington". Even I bought it into that for a day or two.

Well, no Mike, it isn't. But how is NYC different from Chicago? Philadelphia? Detroit? All cities who may soon be paying the BTN going rate.

If the BTN is successful in its attempts to get the BTN off the ground, an analysis needs to be done as to what it will take to make the BE competitive in this new age of college sports.

Most of that analysis has already been done for them, thanks to ESPN and the market experts Mike brought in to keep the hybrid alive.

They just need to start thinking about the possibilities and do some out-of-the-box thinking as well.

What are the strengths of the Big Ten?

1) They have a huge alumni base in their home states that can bring about pressure to create the first of these Super-Conferences TV Networks.

2) They have great football

3) They have many good basketball programs.

4) They share the wealth equally

What are the weaknesses of the Big Ten?

1) They emphasize Michigan and Ohio State football to the detriment of others in the league.

2) While they have many good basketball programs, they don't have great ones and for the most part, play a boring brand of basketball for many fans outside of their region.

3) They share the wealth equally

What are the strengths of the Big East?

What are the weaknesses of the Big East?

How can the football school presidents accentuate the strengths, while improving the weaknesses? And, potentially, how can they exploit the weaknesses of the Big Ten?

Also, think about the other conference we share borders with, the ACC. What are their strengths? What are their weaknesses? How will they address the possibility of an ACC Network when they basically have only 4 states.

Look also at ND. The Irish pride themselves on their NBC contract, but that contract won't be looking so good soon in comparison to what the likes of Michigan, Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan State might be making if the BTN is a success.

All of sudden, the 'uniqueness' of ND gets diminished somewhat. How will they look to re-assert themselves?

Quote:I'm sure they'd let the BE schools know that they'd be less likely to pay a similar amount to two diminished and competing leagues of 8 teams each. Perhaps the latest tv contract is in part the BE's first response to this changing landscape?

Oh, I have come to agree with this. The adaptability of the Big East and its willingness to work within an hybrid environment (as much as I hate to say it) could serve the league very well in the next decade.

But presently there is too much balance between football and basketball. If both sports drove the TV bus equally, the current set-up wouldn't be so bad. But since they don't, they might want to look at all the information they have gathered and start thinking about some strategies.

Quote:And what might the response of the other "lesser" leagues be? Does the ACC also go to 14 if the SEC grabs Texas and A&M?

I know you don't want this thread to devolve into conference realignment speculation but the response of conferences thus far to financial crisis and competition has been expansion.

Well, I didn't want the thread to turn into what the expansion/realignments might look like. But, I think it is crucial that the Big East football presidents come up with a strategy that gets Syracuse, Rutgers and Connecticut on board with some type of agreement that they will not let either the Big Ten or the ACC try to exploit them for the NYC market.

The NYC market is a potential strength for the Big East in football and IS a strength in terms of basketball. If the football schools expect to survive in the next decade, they can't allow that to slip away.

Quote:I'm not sure what else, if anything, they have up their sleeves. And if the last expansion was unsuccessful in killing off the BE, this one should do it. Or do select presidents of the BE and ACC come together and form a new conference that might actually be able to compete with the SEC and B10 in terms of finances?

Perhaps a combined BE/ACC Network? A potential fallback position if other plans don't materialize.

Quote:The best bet probably is resignation to/acceptance of the financial superiority of the B10 and SEC.

Disagree with this, but understand its an extremely uphill battle.

Then again, we can all hope the BTN doesn't get off the ground.

Cheers,
Neil

Quote:No doubt that B10 and SEC revenue streams outstrip all other conference today and the gap between 1 and 2 and the rest looks to only widen in the future. It's just a matter of degrees at this point. It still remains to be seen if the B10's negotiations with the big cable providers bear fruit. If the BTN finds its way onto basic cable, there have been estimates of $100 million in conference revenues from the network yearly. If on a premium sports tier, just a fraction of that amount. Talk of an equity ownership in the BTN for Comcast is worrisome, though.

-- JMO....but it strikes me as being very unlikely that the BTN finds its way to Basic cable. There just isn't enough programing to get yearlong ratings on a constant basis.

Jackson

SO#1 Wrote:Neil,

Why don’t you just come out and tell us how we should respond. Even if we are on the same page, we have a hard time speaking with one voice. Forget about put out fire around the country, we can’t even do it our own backyard.

If it's one thing ACC expansion and the current Big 12 squabbling should demonstrate it is that 'speaking with one voice' is a myth. It doesn't happen in all-sports conferences either.

I will concede though that the equal hybrid nature of the Big East does make it nigh impossible.

Still, I think that adaptability (the ability to work with all kinds of academic institutions with different sports emphases) can serve the football schools in good stead into the next decade.

They just need to understand the current situation and how it can impact the changing college landscape.

Cheers,
Neil

Jackson1011 Wrote:

Quote:No doubt that B10 and SEC revenue streams outstrip all other conference today and the gap between 1 and 2 and the rest looks to only widen in the future. It's just a matter of degrees at this point. It still remains to be seen if the B10's negotiations with the big cable providers bear fruit. If the BTN finds its way onto basic cable, there have been estimates of $100 million in conference revenues from the network yearly. If on a premium sports tier, just a fraction of that amount. Talk of an equity ownership in the BTN for Comcast is worrisome, though.

-- JMO....but it strikes me as being very unlikely that the BTN finds its way to Basic cable. There just isn't enough programing to get yearlong ratings on a constant basis.

Jackson

From your keypad to God's PC.

But the rumors going around that the Big Ten may bring Comcast on board as a partner has definitely caught my attention. As well as the attention of some others.

Cheers,
Neil

To me the football schools have to get moving on splitting even if its just an 8 team conference so that we can have double-round robin in basketball, round robin in other sports, etc. Build our ties and rivalries. The next step is to establish an academic consortium ideally we reach out to our former Big East brethren whom we hopefully had at least a semi-amicable split from and establish the consortium we get the regional D-3s that are good to come on board too. Get NYU, Johns Hopkins (and this could become even more pivotal later), Stevens Tech, UMDNJ, NJIT, Tufts, etc. on board to really bolster the capabilities of any consortium. Granted UMDNJ and NJIT will end up part of Rutgers before long creating unified, streamlined, logical campuses in Newark, New Brunswick/Piscataway, and Camden. Back to Johns Hopkins perhaps as part of them being a part of the consortium we organize a lacrosse conference around the full members who play aka Syracuse and Rutgers and invite Johns Hopkins, Georgetown, St. John's, and Notre Dame as associate members. Maybe we also put an invite out to Penn State as they play Rutgers, Syracuse, and Georgetown regularly. So with that we have a six to seven team conference. Syracuse has to sacrifice six games of its schedule to a conference of those six games they play 3 or 4 of those teams annually or nearly annually anyway. Johns Hopkins can still play its other rivals and mix in other opponents with the remaining 7-8 games a season. It threatens neither's ability to win the NC or make the tourney etc. Now with Penn State's associate membership in lacrosse in hand and the conference's success taking off and all that we decide to start formulating our own network. Now we start to have capabilities and resources to entice a school like Penn State into the fold not to mention several years of sustained high level success in football and basketball and we already have a certain set of ties thanks to lacrosse. It then becomes time to put the band together and make the calls to Va Tech, PSU, Maryland, and BC. My guess is that PSU, Maryland, and BC come but Va Tech stays in the ACC. We then turn to Memphis who has been making strides in all their programs and is a natural rival to Louisville and Cincy and pushes deeper into SEC recruiting territory and invite them for the 12 hole. We adopt a 9 game conference schedule so that we go less time in between playing each other in opposite divisions if the math on that even works out. I'm not sure it does. So forth and so on. That's the blueprint I'd try to follow anyway.

omnicarrier Wrote:

Jackson1011 Wrote:

Quote:No doubt that B10 and SEC revenue streams outstrip all other conference today and the gap between 1 and 2 and the rest looks to only widen in the future. It's just a matter of degrees at this point. It still remains to be seen if the B10's negotiations with the big cable providers bear fruit. If the BTN finds its way onto basic cable, there have been estimates of $100 million in conference revenues from the network yearly. If on a premium sports tier, just a fraction of that amount. Talk of an equity ownership in the BTN for Comcast is worrisome, though.

-- JMO....but it strikes me as being very unlikely that the BTN finds its way to Basic cable. There just isn't enough programing to get yearlong ratings on a constant basis.

Jackson

From your keypad to God's PC.

But the rumors going around that the Big Ten may bring Comcast on board as a partner has definitely caught my attention. As well as the attention of some others.

Cheers,
Neil

--I have no doubt that it will be on expanded packages/digital cable etc. However, what are they going to show from March to August? That's a huge chunk of the year to show old games/reruns

Jackson

Jackson1011 Wrote:I have no doubt that it will be on expanded packages/digital cable etc. However, what are they going to show from March to August? That's a huge chunk of the year to show old games/reruns

Jackson

What does the MTN show during that time frame? I have no clue as I don't have Dish or whatever it is on, but that may be worth hearing from a MWC fan that gets the channel.

Jackson1011 Wrote:--I have no doubt that it will be on expanded packages/digital cable etc. However, what are they going to show from March to August? That's a huge chunk of the year to show old games/reruns

Jackson

Well there's baseball until June. And if they played it as a league, there's lacrosse through mid-May.

That could be a possible Big East strength. Baseball and men's and women's lacrosse.

How many people actually care what's on TV during the summer months anyway?

Cheers,
Neil

That's an interesting fallback possibility to 'partner' with the ACC for a network. Certainly, there isn't enough interest now to to have a BE network. However, would there be enough interest the markets in the BE footprint for a combined TV network? Would Philly be a BE/ACC network? Would the BE/ACC channel have a hard time getting onto cable in Ohio (Cincy), Wisconsin (Milwaukee), Illinois (Chicago), Kentucky (Louisville), etc? Who would get more programming, when, what would be the revenue distribution, and how much could they charge and in which markets? Wouldn't it be easier for the ACC to take two of the three BE NE teams (RU, SU, or UConn) and essentially kill the competition?

This might be a silly question but any chance the Federal Government is going to want a piece of the pie - considering how much revenue we are now talking that these conferences may potentially make?

As long as BEast teams keep playing exciting football, we'll be attractive to audiences. BEast football is much more exciting than Big 10 or SEC football, especially when WVU or Louisville are playing. Offensive football is more fun than defensive struggles, and as long as offensive geniuses run the show in the conference the games will draw an audience. And it will only continue to grow.

Hoquista, you can bet the Fed wants their slice of the pie. You can't earn a dime in this nation without somebody slicing out a piece of it, and the Fed is the biggest slicer around.

What does the population growth in the southeast really mean? If people are moving into that region, would that be a catalyst for other leagues' markets to expand INTO that region.

For example, if it is mainly midwesterners and easterners moving into the south, wouldn't that possibly expand the BE and Big 11 markets. It'd be interesting to see the BE ratings over time, broken down by region, for its nationally televised games.

Neil,

The SEC could add a school in North Carolina, almost 9million in population, & a school in Virginia, almost 8 million in population. The SEC would then have a presence in all of the southeastern US. North Carolina is growing at about 10% per over the past 6 years.