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Quote:<span style='font-size:14pt;line-height:100%'>A Miami Loss Doesn't Help FSU</span>

By Brad Edwards
Special to ESPN.com

On the surface, it was a great weekend for Florida State.

Bobby Bowden passed Joe Paterno to become major-college football's winningest coach. The Seminoles also clinched a tie for the ACC title, making them as close to a lock for a BCS bid as any team in the country. They even moved past Washington State in both the AP and coaches polls, which vaulted them into third place in the BCS Standings.

Seemingly, things couldn't be much better for a squad that lost a game just two weeks earlier. But don't be fooled by what you think you see.

Although FSU's No. 3 BCS ranking looks great, the reality of the situation is that Southern California, Georgia and Ohio State are all in a better position to reach the coveted top 2 of the Standings. The reason: Those teams didn't lose to Miami.

Three years ago, Florida State lost a regular-season game at Miami but still finished ahead of the Hurricanes for the No. 2 spot in the final BCS Standings. After that debacle, the BCS folks made some adjustments to their formula to be certain such a mistake wouldn't happen again. One of those adjustments was the addition of a quality-win component, which rewards a team for beating a highly-ranked opponent.

&nbsp; Although FSU's No. 3 BCS ranking looks great, the reality of the situation is that Southern California, Georgia and Ohio State are all in a better position to reach the coveted top 2 of the Standings. The reason: Those teams didn't lose to Miami.
Because of its win over Florida State this season, Miami will receive a quality-win bonus to its BCS score for as long as FSU appears in the Top 10. The higher the 'Noles are ranked, the more points the 'Canes will have subtracted from their total (like golf, lower is better in the BCS).

If UM loses at Virginia Tech this weekend, a number of schools could potentially climb over the Hurricanes in the polls -- including Florida State. But if both teams win the remainder of their games after Nov. 1 and finish with an 11-1 record, you have to believe Miami would eventually move back ahead of FSU because of its head-to-head victory in Tallahassee. USC, Georgia or Ohio State could end up ahead of Miami in the polls with just one loss, but Florida State likely won't. Given time to think it over, poll voters usually make such switches.

Sure, they didn't do it in 1993, when FSU lost at Notre Dame a week before the Irish's home loss to BC. But that was different. The Seminoles dropped a close game on the road, and Notre Dame lost its final game of the regular season. This time, Florida State fell at home in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicates.

So, on the assumption that Miami would be ranked at least one spot ahead of FSU in the polls if both have one loss, here's how the BCS math breaks down.

For argument's sake, let's say the 'Canes are No. 2 in the final polls and the 'Noles are No. 3, as was the case at the end of 2000. That's an advantage of one point for Miami in the "average poll ranking" element. The teams would be even in the loss column, so that part of the formula would be a wash. Florida State has a stronger schedule at the moment, but Miami will close that gap before the end of the season and, if anything, should have a slight advantage in that category, as well. But let's assume the schedule strength column is basically even, giving Miami roughly a one-point lead with "average computer ranking" and "quality win points" still left to be evaluated.

The most difficult part of the BCS equation to project is the computer element, and it's even more difficult to estimate where a team would fall after a loss. Miami's current standing in the computers, however, is so much better than FSU's that the 'Canes might actually stay ahead of the 'Noles in some computers if they fall to Virginia Tech. But for the sake of continuing this analysis, we'll give Florida State an advantage of 1.28 points for computer average, which is exactly what it had over Miami at the end of the 2000 season.

This means Florida State's BCS score would be slightly better than Miami's prior to the application of the previously explained quality-win bonus. If FSU is ranked No. 2 in the Standings, Miami would have a bonus of .9 subtracted from its total points. If FSU is ranked No. 3, Miami would get .8 taken off its score. Either way, this bonus is plenty enough to make the Hurricanes' final score lower -- and better -- than the Seminoles'.

For those who are curious, FSU has almost no chance at getting its own quality-win points because every team on its schedule other than Miami already has at least three losses. There's a possibility the Seminoles won't have a single win over a team ranked in the final Top-25 polls this season. Georgia Tech (3 votes) is the only team FSU has beaten that is even receiving votes in this week's AP poll.

So, while every other once-beaten team in the BCS Standings is hoping for a loss by either Miami OR Oklahoma on Saturday, the Seminoles specifically need a loss by the Sooners. Realistically, the Hurricanes would have to lose twice for FSU to finish ahead of them.