CSNbbs

=>Calculated on my spreadsheet!

% Chance of Reaching Quarterfinals
1. Kent: 100% -- has bye
8. Buffalo: 75%
9. Ball State: 25%
4. Miami: 100% -- has bye
5. Ohio U.: 95%
12. CMU: 5%
2. NIU: 100% -- has bye
7. Toledo: 85%
10. BUGS: 15%
3. Akron: 100% -- has bye
6. WMU: 85%
11. EMU: 15%

% Chance of Reaching Semifinals
1. Kent: 82.5%
8. Buffalo: 15%
9. Ball State: 2.5%
4. Miami: 80.75%
5. Ohio U.: 19%
12. CMU: .25%
2. NIU: 57.25%
7. Toledo: 38.25%
10. BUGS: 4.5%
3. Akron: 77.25%
6. WMU: 21.25%
11. EMU: 1.5%

% Chance of Reaching Finals
1. Kent: 56.04%
8. Buffalo: 4.49%
9. Ball State: .65%
4. Miami: 33.92%
5. Ohio U.: 4.89%
12. CMU: .01%
2. NIU: 19.69%
7. Toledo: 11.91%
10. BUGS: .72%
3. Akron: 58.46%
6. WMU: 8.94%
11. EMU: 1.5%

% Chance of Winning MAC Tourney
1. Kent: 37.36%
8. Buffalo: 1.42%
9. Ball State: .13%
4. Miami: 19.37%
5. Ohio U.: 3.3%
12. CMU: 1.02E-05--basically astronomical
2. NIU: 5.26%
7. Toledo: 3.18%
10. BUGS: .1%
3. Akron: 28.67%
6. WMU: 2.3%
11. EMU: .12%

What is the basis for these percentages?

BobcatFan Wrote:What is the basis for these percentages?

=>I did it on a spreadsheet. I first predicted the % chance I felt in 20 head-to-head games any one MAC team would beat another one somewhere in the MAC tourney. I factored in home court advantage for the first round games.

Ex. I gave Ohio U. a 95% (19 in 20) chance of beating CMU at home tonight (and 5% chance for CMU--1 in 20).

I then used that calculation to give a weighted average for each round based on the likely hood that any team would play any other team in a given round.

Ex. Kent had an 82.5% chance of making the semifinals. Kent has three possible semifinal opponents (Miami, Ohio U., and CMU). So I came up with this formula for the % chance Kent made the finals:

% Chance of Kent Reaching Finals = % Chance of Kent making semifinals .825 X [(Miami % Chance of Making Semifinals .8075 X Kent's % Chance of beating Miami .65) + (Ohio U. % Chance of Making Semifinals .19 X Kent's % Chance of beating Ohio U. .8) + (CMU % Chance of Making Semifinals .0025 X Kent's % Chance of beating CMU .95)]

% Chance Of Kent Reaching Finals = .825 X [(.8075 X .65) + (.19 X .8) + (.0025 X .95)] = .5604 = 56.04% (actual figures all on a spreadsheet)

Clear as mud? ;-)

Yeah and if i remember right with 10 games to go last baseball season the Tribe had a 93% chance to make the playoffs and we know how that ended.

Honestly, i feel ANYBODY that gets to the Q has a legitimate chance to win it.

=>Data works out that there is an 85.4% chance that either Kent, Miami, or Akron win the MAC tourney. 90.68% if you throw in NIU. That would seem to be about accurate based on the results of the 18 game season.

Of course a Miami fan gives the Redhawks an 80.75% statistical chance of beating Ohio. ;-)

I have a feeling come Thursday that reality will be saying otherwise. Of course, I've never been a big fan of math anyway.

BobcatsFan Wrote:Of course a Miami fan gives the Redhawks an 80.75% statistical chance of beating Ohio. ;-)

I have a feeling come Thursday that reality will be saying otherwise. Of course, I've never been a big fan of math anyway.

=>No. I give Miami an 80.75% chance of advancing to the semifinals. The 80.75% number is higher than the probability Miami would be Ohio U. because of the chance, however remote, that Miami could face CMU.

The actual chance Miami will beat Ohio U. is 80% (4 times out of 5)! ;-) Miami's chance of beating CMU is 95%. I think Miami has a 95% chance of facing Ohio U. and a 5% chance of facing CMU. As such...

% Chance of Miami in Semifinals = (.95 X .8) + (.05 X .95) = .8075 = 80.75%

mollautt Wrote:The actual chance Miami will beat Ohio U. is 80% (4 times out of 5)!

This is the part that I don't follow. Are you just making the 80% figure up, or is it based on some power ranking or something?

BobcatFan Wrote:

mollautt Wrote:The actual chance Miami will beat Ohio U. is 80% (4 times out of 5)!

This is the part that I don't follow. Are you just making the 80% figure up, or is it based on some power ranking or something?

=>Basically, I am reaching up my arse and pulling out the number. I made my own personal prediction on the % chance that any MAC team would be any other MAC team in the tourney. That is, I made up % chance for Ohio U. to beat all the other 11 teams in the MAC tourney. I did the same for Miami, Kent, Akron, CMU, BUGS, etc. Based on those percentages, I calculated the likelihood of playing any of those teams.

I calculated Ohio U. having a 19% chance of making the semifinals based on a 95% chance of beating CMU tonight muliplied by a 20% chance of beating Miami in Cleveland. 95% (or .19) X 20% (or .20) = 19% (or .19). CMU has a 5% (or .05) chance of beating both Ohio U. and Miami. So CMU has a .25% chance of advancing to the semifinals (.05 X .05 = .0025).

I think your analysis gives BG too much of a chance to win the tourney. ;-)

The odds are really stacked against Ohio. The odds any team repeating in the MAC are remote. Winning 4 games in a row to consecutive years is nearly impossible. Considering that they are 2-6 vs the top 4 seeds this year makes those odds astronomical. Wonder what the payout would be with $100 bucks on the Bobcats. MAC is a weird league that Kent, Akron, and Miami dominated the league in the regular season. Lets look at those quarterfinal matchups.

2 vs 7 NIU and Toledo. Two teams that can beat any team and lose to anyteam in the MAC.

3 vs 6. Reitz is one of the best big men in the MAC. If Akron has a weakness, its on the frontline. WMU is a scappy team that beat Ohio and Miami. Could they beat Akron?

1 vs 8 UB has a bitter taste from that tip in from last year. If people think Kent got an easy draw, think again. UB could be the best 8th seed ever in the MAC.

4 vs 5 Miami vs Ohio- this is a rivalry game. Ohio has knocked Miami out twice in three years. 3 in 4? Miami looking to get the brooms out.

=>Recalculations based on results last night:

% Chance of Reaching Semifinals
1. Kent: 80% (was 82.5%)
8. Buffalo: 20% (was 15%)
4. Miami: 80% (was 80.75%)
5. Ohio U.: 20% (was 19%)
2. NIU: 55% (was 57.25%)
7. Toledo: 45% (was 38.25%)
3. Akron: 75% (was 77.25%)
6. WMU: 25% (was 21.25%)

% Chance of Reaching Finals
1. Kent: 54.4% (was 56.04%)
8. Buffalo: 6% (was 4.49%)
4. Miami: 34.4% (was 33.92%)
5. Ohio U.: 5.2% (was 4.89%)
2. NIU: 19.25% (was 19.69%)
7. Toledo: 14.06% (was 11.91%)
3. Akron: 56.25% (was 58.46%)
6. WMU: 10.44% (was 8.94%)

% Chance of Winning MAC Tourney
1. Kent: 35.87% (was 37.36%)
8. Buffalo: 1.86% (was 1.42%)
4. Miami: 19.42% (was 19.37%)
5. Ohio U.: 3.4% (was 3.3%)
2. NIU: 5.21% (was 5.26%)
7. Toledo: 3.81% (was 3.18%)
3. Akron: 27.7% (was 28.67%)
6. WMU: 2.73% (was 2.3%)

Well, you're a fair and a wise guy.

mollautt Wrote:

BobcatFan Wrote:What is the basis for these percentages?

=>I did it on a spreadsheet. I first predicted the % chance I felt in 20 head-to-head games any one MAC team would beat another one somewhere in the MAC tourney.

So all those numbers down to the hundreth of a decimel point are ultimately based on your hunches, which may be biased? :shhh:

klingon288 Wrote:

mollautt Wrote:

BobcatFan Wrote:What is the basis for these percentages?

=>I did it on a spreadsheet. I first predicted the % chance I felt in 20 head-to-head games any one MAC team would beat another one somewhere in the MAC tourney.

So all those numbers down to the hundreth of a decimel point are ultimately based on your hunches, which may be biased? :shhh:

=>Yes and no. The only part I predicted was the % chance any one team would beat another in head to head play (i.e. I believe Kent would beat Toledo 80% of the time on a neutral court). This part is purely my "subjective" opinions. Once I predicted the % chance of the head to head results of all 12 teams vs. every team in the league, I just plugged that information into the formula. The formula itself is "objective."

If you would give me your opinion as to the % chance of the remaining 8 teams would do against each other, I could plot that into my formula and give you the results based on your opinions.

FILL THIS OUT:

1. Kent winning % vs. Buffalo:
(i.e. if think Kent would beat Buffalo 15 out of 20 times, write "75%")
" vs. Miami:
" vs. Ohio U.:
" vs. NIU:
" vs. Toledo:
" vs. Akron:
" vs. WMU:

2. Buffalo winning % vs. Miami:
" vs. Ohio U.:
" vs. NIU:
" vs. Toledo:
" vs. Akron:
" vs. WMU:

3. Miami vs. Ohio U.:
" vs. NIU:
" vs. Toledo:
" vs. Akron:
" vs. WMU:

4. Ohio U. vs. NIU:
" vs. Toledo:
" vs. Akron:
" vs. WMU:

5. NIU vs. Toledo:
" vs. Akron:
" vs. WMU:

6. Toledo vs. Akron:
" vs. WMU:

7. Akron vs. WMU:

******

If you fill the above out, I can calculate the % based on your opinions.

Results are guaranteed to be within +/- 98.14%

-Dan

I think the neutral court isn't exactly 50/50. Kent State has a solid fan base. Ohio has a strong alumni along with Miami. Ohio is better organized with the O-zone. That nite session should be packed with UB, Kent, Miami, and Ohio. Akron is gonna have a great crowd. I think you could see a new MAC attendance record. With Akron and Kent having the best odds of reaching the finals it has a good shot.

mollautt: "The Beautiful Mind" of the MAC??

Okie Chippewa Wrote:mollautt: "The Beautiful Mind" of the MAC??

=>Nah, if you actually knew what was in my mind, you would know there is nothing beautiful there. To quote Larry Miller, "If women actually knew what (men) were actually thinking they would never stop slapping us."

mollautt Wrote:If you would give me your opinion as to the % chance of the remaining 8 teams would do against each other, I could plot that into my formula and give you the results based on your opinions.

FILL THIS OUT:

1. Kent winning % vs. Buffalo: 1%
(i.e. if think Kent would beat Buffalo 15 out of 20 times, write "75%")
" vs. Miami: 50%
" vs. Ohio U.: 99%
" vs. NIU: 50%
" vs. Toledo: 99%
" vs. Akron: 50%
" vs. WMU: 50%

2. Buffalo winning % vs. Miami: 99%
" vs. Ohio U.: 99%
" vs. NIU: 99%
" vs. Toledo: 99%
" vs. Akron: 99%
" vs. WMU: 99%

3. Miami vs. Ohio U.: 99%
" vs. NIU: 50%
" vs. Toledo: 99%
" vs. Akron: 50%
" vs. WMU: 50%

4. Ohio U. vs. NIU: 1%
" vs. Toledo: 50%
" vs. Akron: 2%
" vs. WMU: 2%

5. NIU vs. Toledo: 99%
" vs. Akron: 50%
" vs. WMU: 50%

6. Toledo vs. Akron: 1%
" vs. WMU: 1%

7. Akron vs. WMU: 80%

******

If you fill the above out, I can calculate the % based on your opinions.

Based on your formula, looks like a UB vs. Akron final.